Prediction of particle distribution in isotropic turbulence by large-eddy simulation

The recent application of large-eddy simulation (LES) to particle-laden turbulence requires that the LES with a subgrid scale (SGS) model could accurately predict particle distributions. Usually, a SGS particle model is used to recover the small-scale structures of velocity fields. In this study, we propose a rescaling technique to recover the effects of small-scale motions on the preferential concentration of inertial particles. The technique is used to simulate particle distribution in isotropic turbulence by LES and produce consistent results with direct numerical simulation (DNS). Key words: particle distribution, particle-laden turbulence, large-eddy simulation, subgrid scale model.

Definition of the HLA-A29 peptide ligand motif allows prediction of potential T-cell epitopes from the retinal soluble antigen, a candidate autoantigen in birdshot retinopathy.

The peptide-binding motif of HLA-A29, the predisposing allele for birdshot retinopathy, was determined after acid-elution of endogenous peptides from purified HLA-A29 molecules. Individual and pooled HPLC fractions were sequenced by Edman degradation. Major anchor residues could be defined as glutamate at the second position of the peptide and as tyrosine at the carboxyl terminus. In vitro binding of polyglycine synthetic peptides to purified HLA-A29 molecules also revealed the need for an auxiliary anchor residue at the third position, preferably phenylalanine. By using this motif, we synthesized six peptides from the retinal soluble antigen, a candidate autoantigen in autoimmune uveoretinitis. Their in vitro binding was tested on HLA-A29 and also on HLA-B44 and HLA-B61, two alleles sharing close peptide-binding motifs. Two peptides derived from the carboxyl-terminal sequence of the human retinal soluble antigen bound efficiently to HLA-A29. This study could contribute to the prediction of T-cell epitopes from retinal autoantigens implicated in birdshot retinopathy.

Bayesian Prediction of Weibull Distribution Based on Fixed and Random Sample Size

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62E16, 65C05, 65C20.

Large-scale prediction of seagrass distribution: the case of Cymodocea nodosa (Mediterranean-Atlantic)

Understanding the factors that affect seagrass meadows encompassing their entire range of distribution is challenging yet important for their conservation. We model the environmental niche of Cymodocea nodosa using a combination of environmental variables and landscape metrics to examine factors defining its distribution and find suitable habitats for the species. The most relevant environmental variables defining the distribution of C. nodosa were sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity. We found suitable habitats at SST from 5.8 ºC to 26.4 ºC and salinity ranging from 17.5 to 39.3. Optimal values of mean winter wave height ranged between 1.2 m and 1.5 m, while waves higher than 2.5 m seemed to limit the presence of the species. The influence of nutrients and pH, despite having weight on the models, was not so clear in terms of ranges that confine the distribution of the species. Landscape metrics able to capture variation in the coastline enhanced significantly the accuracy of the models, despite the limitations caused by the scale of the study. By contrasting predictive approaches, we defined the variables affecting the distributional areas that seem unsuitable for C. nodosa as well as those suitable habitats not occupied by the species. These findings are encouraging for its use in future studies on climate-related marine range shifts and meadow restoration projects of these fragile ecosystems.

西北干旱区多种植物地理分布与气候的相关性及其可能潜在分布预测

　　作为西部大开发的关键地区，西北干旱区由于地理位置和环境条件的独特性、生态系统的脆弱性以及人类活动的长期干扰，对其周边乃至全国的生态环境有较大的影响，在这一地区研究植物种分布与气候的关系，并模拟预测其可能的潜在分布范围，具有理论上和实践上的重要意义。 　　通过广泛收集了西北干旱区优势种和常见种的地理分布资料，共选择128个植物种，利用Holdridge的生命地带分类系统，计算各植物种的生物温度(BT)、可能蒸散(PE)、降水量(P)及可能蒸散率(PER)，分析植物种与气候的相互关系，并将所有植物种进行经验归纳分类。随后，对这砦植物种及其气候信息进行TWINSPAN定量分类，并与经验分类结果相比较，得出西北干旱区128种植物的生态气候分类，分属于以下几大类型：高寒草甸、森林一草原过渡带、草原（典型草原、荒漠草原）、荒漠（草原化荒漠、荒漠、高寒荒漠）。具体来说，包括以下17个生态气候类型： 1)高寒草甸：异针茅。 2)森林一草原过渡带：牛尾蒿、鬼箭锦鸡儿、沙棘。 3)草原a：沙蒿。 4)草原b：长芒草、百里香（变种）、多叶隐子草、贝加尔针茅、大针茅。 5)草原c：羊茅、小叶锦鸡儿、荒漠锦鸡儿、线叶菊、华北岩黄芪、廿青针茅、碱蒿、内蒙古沙蒿、裂叶蒿、狭叶锦鸡儿、山竹岩黄芪、女蒿、小蓬、两伯利亚杏、沙地柏、角果碱篷、霸王、糙隐子草。 6)草原d：紫狐茅、紫花针茅。 7)草原一荒漠草原a：包括沙竹、琵琶柴、吉尔吉斯针茅。 8)草原一荒漠草原b：华北米蒿、差巴嘎蒿、星星草、长芒针茅、铁竿蒿、柠条锦鸡儿。 9)荒漠草原：沙生冰草、蒙古冰草、羊草、冷蒿、中亚紫菀木、刺旋花、老瓜头、木贼麻黄、西伯利亚白刺、唐古特白刺、戈壁针茅、石生针茅、盐地碱蓬、冰草、蓍状亚菊、油蒿、木蓼、刺针枝蓼、长枝木蓼、中间锦鸡儿、尖叶盐爪爪、黄花琵琶柴、松叶猪毛菜、珍珠猪毛菜、东方针茅、囊果碱蓬、四合木、白滨藜、短脚锦鸡儿。 10)草原化荒漠，荒漠a：川青锦鸡儿、优若藜、苦艾蒿、无芒隐子草、沙冬青、籽蒿、地白蒿、菭草、齿叶白刺、绵刺、盐角草、多枝柽柳、盐生假木贼。 11)草原化荒漠．荒漠b：蒿叶猪毛菜、短花针茅、芨芨草、灌木亚菊、博乐蒿、小蒿、喀什蒿、南山短花菊、盐爪爪、木本猪毛菜、针茅、细枝盐爪爪。 12)草原化荒漠．荒漠c：白梭梭、白羊草、无叶假木贼。 13）干旱荒漠a：戈壁短花菊、荒漠细柄茅、刺蓬、沙生针茅、多花柽柳、细枝柽柳。 14)干旱荒漠b：梭梭柴、铃铛刺、天山猪毛菜、帕米尔麻黄、座花针茅、旱蒿、克氏狐茅、短叶假木贼、准格尔沙蒿、长穗柽柳、刚毛柽柳。 15)高寒荒漠植被：匍生优若藜。 16)干旱荒漠c：粉花蒿、白杆沙拐枣、膜果麻黄、花花柴、灌木紫菀木、裸果木、合头草、塔里木沙拐枣。 17)超干旱荒漠植被：沙拐枣、胡杨、盐穗木、灰杨、盐节木、圆叶盐爪爪。 　　综合分类结果表明：多数植物种的生态气候类型与实际生境相符，但也有少数植物种有明显偏差，主要原因有三点：首先，某些种的分布范围超出了西北干旱区，在东北、华北、甚至全国范围内分布，所计算的植物种的气候范围本身存在局限性;其次，西北干旱区的研究资料如植物种的分布范围、分布点的气象资料等有许多缺失：最后，由于文献中对某些植物种分布范围的描述比较笼统，无法确定其精确的地理分布界限，使得植物种所对应的分类结果与其真正所属的植 被类型有一些偏差。 　　本文还进一步在这128种植物中选取了10种分布明确、资料齐备的代表性植被类型的优势种，根据它们的降水和生物温度指标，模拟预测了它们的可能潜在分布区，包括其主要中心分布区和最大可能分布区，并与实际分布范围进行比较。结果表明．其潜在分布区的分布范围与实际调查所得资料所处范围基本一致，特别是中心分布区的预测图，而最大可能分布区与实际有一定误差。

Potential Distribution and Risk Assessment of an Invasive Plant Species: A Case Study of Hymenachne amplexicaulis in Australia

Given the limited resources available for weed management, a strategic approach is required to give the best bang for your buck. The current study incorporates: (1) a model ensemble approach to identify areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding a species invasive potential, (2) current distribution of the invaded species, and (3) connectivity of systems to identify target regions and focus efforts for more effective management. Uncertainty in the prediction of suitable habitat for H. amplexicaulis (study species) in Australia was addressed in an ensemble-forecasting approach to compare distributional scenarios from four models (CLIMATCH; CLIMEX; boosted regression trees [BRT]; maximum entropy [Maxent]). Models were built using subsets of occurrence and environmental data. Catchment risk was determined through incorporating habitat suitability, the current abundance and distribution of H. amplexicaulis, and catchment connectivity. Our results indicate geographic differences between predictions of different approaches. Despite these differences a number of catchments in northern, central, and southern Australia were identified as high risk of invasion or further spread by all models suggesting they should be given priority for the management of H. amplexicaulis. The study also highlighted the utility of ensemble approaches in indentifying areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding the species invasive potential.

Real - time prediction of rainfall induced instability of residual soil slopes associated with deep cracks

The early warning based on real-time prediction of rain-induced instability of natural residual slopes helps to minimise human casualties due to such slope failures. Slope instability prediction is complicated, as it is influenced by many factors, including soil properties, soil behaviour, slope geometry, and the location and size of deep cracks in the slope. These deep cracks can facilitate rainwater infiltration into the deep soil layers and reduce the unsaturated shear strength of residual soil. Subsequently, it can form a slip surface, triggering a landslide even in partially saturated soil slopes. Although past research has shown the effects of surface-cracks on soil stability, research examining the influence of deep-cracks on soil stability is very limited. This study aimed to develop methodologies for predicting the real-time rain-induced instability of natural residual soil slopes with deep cracks. The results can be used to warn against potential rain-induced slope failures. The literature review conducted on rain induced slope instability of unsaturated residual soil associated with soil crack, reveals that only limited studies have been done in the following areas related to this topic: - Methods for detecting deep cracks in residual soil slopes. - Practical application of unsaturated soil theory in slope stability analysis. - Mechanistic methods for real-time prediction of rain induced residual soil slope instability in critical slopes with deep cracks. Two natural residual soil slopes at Jombok Village, Ngantang City, Indonesia, which are located near a residential area, were investigated to obtain the parameters required for the stability analysis of the slope. A survey first identified all related field geometrical information including slope, roads, rivers, buildings, and boundaries of the slope. Second, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method was used on the slope to identify the location and geometrical characteristics of deep cracks. The two ERT array models employed in this research are: Dipole-dipole and Azimuthal. Next, bore-hole tests were conducted at different locations in the slope to identify soil layers and to collect undisturbed soil samples for laboratory measurement of the soil parameters required for the stability analysis. At the same bore hole locations, Standard Penetration Test (SPT) was undertaken. Undisturbed soil samples taken from the bore-holes were tested in a laboratory to determine the variation of the following soil properties with the depth: - Classification and physical properties such as grain size distribution, atterberg limits, water content, dry density and specific gravity. - Saturated and unsaturated shear strength properties using direct shear apparatus. - Soil water characteristic curves (SWCC) using filter paper method. - Saturated hydraulic conductivity. The following three methods were used to detect and simulate the location and orientation of cracks in the investigated slope: (1) The electrical resistivity distribution of sub-soil obtained from ERT. (2) The profile of classification and physical properties of the soil, based on laboratory testing of soil samples collected from bore-holes and visual observations of the cracks on the slope surface. (3) The results of stress distribution obtained from 2D dynamic analysis of the slope using QUAKE/W software, together with the laboratory measured soil parameters and earthquake records of the area. It was assumed that the deep crack in the slope under investigation was generated by earthquakes. A good agreement was obtained when comparing the location and the orientation of the cracks detected by Method-1 and Method-2. However, the simulated cracks in Method-3 were not in good agreement with the output of Method-1 and Method-2. This may have been due to the material properties used and the assumptions made, for the analysis. From Method-1 and Method-2, it can be concluded that the ERT method can be used to detect the location and orientation of a crack in a soil slope, when the ERT is conducted in very dry or very wet soil conditions. In this study, the cracks detected by the ERT were used for stability analysis of the slope. The stability of the slope was determined using the factor of safety (FOS) of a critical slip surface obtained by SLOPE/W using the limit equilibrium method. Pore-water pressure values for the stability analysis were obtained by coupling the transient seepage analysis of the slope using finite element based software, called SEEP/W. A parametric study conducted on the stability of an investigated slope revealed that the existence of deep cracks and their location in the soil slope are critical for its stability. The following two steps are proposed to predict the rain-induced instability of a residual soil slope with cracks. (a) Step-1: The transient stability analysis of the slope is conducted from the date of the investigation (initial conditions are based on the investigation) to the preferred date (current date), using measured rainfall data. Then, the stability analyses are continued for the next 12 months using the predicted annual rainfall that will be based on the previous five years rainfall data for the area. (b) Step-2: The stability of the slope is calculated in real-time using real-time measured rainfall. In this calculation, rainfall is predicted for the next hour or 24 hours and the stability of the slope is calculated one hour or 24 hours in advance using real time rainfall data. If Step-1 analysis shows critical stability for the forthcoming year, it is recommended that Step-2 be used for more accurate warning against the future failure of the slope. In this research, the results of the application of the Step-1 on an investigated slope (Slope-1) showed that its stability was not approaching a critical value for year 2012 (until 31st December 2012) and therefore, the application of Step-2 was not necessary for the year 2012. A case study (Slope-2) was used to verify the applicability of the complete proposed predictive method. A landslide event at Slope-2 occurred on 31st October 2010. The transient seepage and stability analyses of the slope using data obtained from field tests such as Bore-hole, SPT, ERT and Laboratory tests, were conducted on 12th June 2010 following the Step-1 and found that the slope in critical condition on that current date. It was then showing that the application of the Step-2 could have predicted this failure by giving sufficient warning time.

Thermal tolerance and potential distribution of Carvalhotingis visenda (Hemiptera: Tingidae), a biological control agent for cat's claw creeper, Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae)

The specialist tingid, Carvalhotingis visenda, is a biological control agent for cat's claw creeper, Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae). Cat's claw creeper is an invasive liana with a wide climatic tolerance, and for biological control to be effective the tingid must survive and develop over a range of temperatures. We evaluated the effect of constant temperatures (0-45°C) on the survival and development of C. visenda. Adults showed tolerance for wider temperature ranges (0-45°C), but oviposition, egg hatching and nymphal development were all affected by both high (>30°C) and low (<20°C) temperatures. Temperatures between 20°C and 30°C are the most favourable for adult survival, oviposition, egg hatching and nymphal development. The ability of adults and nymphs to survive for a few days at high (40°C and 45°C) and low (0°C and 5°C) temperatures suggest that extreme temperature events, which usually occur for short durations (hours) in cat's claw creeper infested regions in Queensland and New South Wales states are not likely to affect the tingid population. The potential number of generations (egg to adult) the tingid can complete in a year in Australia ranged from three to eight, with more generations in Queensland than in New South Wales.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

Prediction of the senses of helical amphiphilic assemblies from effective intermolecular pair potential: Studies on chiral monolayers and bilayers

It is well-known that the senses (or the handedness) of the helical assemblies formed from compressed monolayers and bilayers of chiral amphiphiles are highly specific about the chirality of the monomers concerned. We present here a molecular approach that can successfully predict the senses of such helical morphologies. The present approach is based on a reduced tractable description in terms of an effective pair potential (EPP) which depends on the distance of separation and the relative orientations of the two amphiphiles. This approach explicitly considers the pairwise intermolecular interactions between the groups attached to the chiral centers of the two neighboring amphiphiles. It is found that for a pair of the same kind of enantiomers the minimum energy configuration favors a twist angle between molecules and that this twist from neighbor to neighbor gives rise to the helicity of the aggregate. From the known twist angles at the minimum energy configuration the successive arrangement of an array of molecules can be predicted. Therefore, the sense of the helicity can be predicted from the molecular interactions. The predicted senses of the helical structures are in complete agreement with all known experimental results.

The distribution, enrichment and source of potential harmful elements in surface sediments of Bohai Bay, North China

A geochemical study of Bohai Bay surface sediments was carried out to analyze the potential harmful element (PHE: Ge, Mo, In, Sn, Sb,Te, Tl, Bi and V) concentrations, transportation and deposition, enrichment factors and sources. Germanium, Mo, In, Sn, Sb, Te, Tl, Bi and V concentrations in the surface sediments were: 1.43-1.71, 0.52-1.43, 0.04-0.12, 2.77-4.14, 1.14-2.29, 0.027-0.085, 0.506-0.770, 0.27-0.63 and 70.35-115.90 mu g/g, respectively. The distributions of total PHE concentrations, together with sequential extraction analyses, showed that the PHEs were mainly due to natural inputs from the continental weathering delivered to the bay by rivers and atmospheric transportation and deposition. However, high Mo, Sb, Te, Bi and V occurred in non-residual fractions, suggesting some anthropogenic inputs in addition to the natural inputs. Besides sources, the distributions of PHEs were influenced by the coupling of physical, chemical and biological processes. Enrichment factor (EF) was computed for each site for each element in order to assess the polluting elements and the degree of pollution at each site. Results revealed that the EFs were generally lower than 1.0, particularly for Ge, Mo, In, Sn, Tl and V; however, the EFs were higher (>1.5), particularly for Sb, Te and Bi, revealing moderate contamination. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The prediction of intake potential and organic matter digestibility of grass silages by near infrared spectroscopy analysis of undried samples

A study was undertaken to examine a range of sample preparation and near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIPS) methodologies, using undried samples, for predicting organic matter digestibility (OMD g kg(-1)) and ad libitum intake (g kg(-1) W-0.75) of grass silages. A total of eight sample preparation/NIRS scanning methods were examined involving three extents of silage comminution, two liquid extracts and scanning via either external probe (1100-2200 nm) or internal cell (1100-2500 nm). The spectral data (log 1/R) for each of the eight methods were examined by three regression techniques each with a range of data transformations. The 136 silages used in the study were obtained from farms across Northern Ireland, over a two year period, and had in vivo OMD (sheep) and ad libitum intake (cattle) determined under uniform conditions. In the comparisons of the eight sample preparation/scanning methods, and the differing mathematical treatments of the spectral data, the sample population was divided into calibration (n = 91) and validation (n = 45) sets. The standard error of performance (SEP) on the validation set was used in comparisons of prediction accuracy. Across all 8 sample preparation/scanning methods, the modified partial least squares (MPLS) technique, generally minimized SEP's for both OMD and intake. The accuracy of prediction also increased with degree of comminution of the forage and with scanning by internal cell rather than external probe. The system providing the lowest SEP used the MPLS regression technique on spectra from the finely milled material scanned through the internal cell. This resulted in SEP and R-2 (variance accounted for in validation set) values of 24 (g/kg OM) and 0.88 (OMD) and 5.37 (g/kg W-0.75) and 0.77 (intake) respectively. These data indicate that with appropriate techniques NIRS scanning of undried samples of grass silage can produce predictions of intake and digestibility with accuracies similar to those achieved previously using NIRS with dried samples. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Prediction of failure and fracture mechanisms of polymeric composites using finite element analysis. Part 1:Particulate filled composites

Micro-mechanical analysis of polymeric composites provides a powerful means for the quantitative assessment of their bulk behavior. In this paper we describe a robust finite element model (FEM) for the micro-structural modeling of the behavior of particulate filled polymer composites under external loads. The developed model is applied to simulate stress distribution in polymer composites containing particulate fillers. Quantitative information about the magnitude and location of maximum stress concentrations obtained from these simulations is used to predict the dominant failure and crack growth mechanisms in these composites. The model predictions are compared with the available experimental data and also with the values found using other methods reported in the literature. These comparisons show the range of the validity of the developed model and its predictive potential.