The INTERMED questionnaire for predicting return to work after a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program for chronic low back pain.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of the INTERMED questionnaire score, alone or combined with other criteria, in predicting return to work after a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program in patients with non-specific chronic low back pain. METHODS: The INTERMED questionnaire is a biopsychosocial assessment and clinical classification tool that separates heterogeneous populations into subgroups according to case complexity. We studied 88 patients with chronic low back pain who followed an intensive multidisciplinary rehabilitation program on an outpatient basis. Before the program, we recorded the INTERMED score, radiological abnormalities, subjective pain severity, and sick leave duration. Associations between these variables and return to full-time work within 3 months after the end of the program were evaluated using one-sided Fisher tests and univariate logistic regression followed by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: The univariate analysis showed a significant association between the INTERMED score and return to work (P<0.001; odds ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.96). In the multivariate analysis, prediction was best when the INTERMED score and sick leave duration were used in combination (P=0.03; odds ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.93). CONCLUSION: The INTERMED questionnaire is useful for evaluating patients with chronic low back pain. It could be used to improve the selection of patients for intensive multidisciplinary programs, thereby improving the quality of care, while reducing healthcare costs.

Investigation of factors related to employment outcome following traumatic brain injury: a critical review and conceptual model

Purpose : The purpose of this article is to critically review the literature to examine factors that are most consistently related to employment outcome following traumatic brain injury (TBI), with a particular focus on metacognitive skills. It also aims to develop a conceptual model of factors related to employment outcome. Method : The first stage of the review considered 85 studies published between 1980 and December 2003 which investigated factors associated with employment outcome following TBI. English-language studies were identified through searches of Medline and PsycINFO, as well as manual searches of journals and reference lists. The studies were evaluated and rated by two independent raters (Kappa = 0.835) according to the quality of their methodology based upon nine criteria. Fifty studies met the criteria for inclusion in the second stage of the review, which examined the relationship between a broad range of variables and employment outcome. Results : The factors most consistently associated with employment outcome included pre-injury occupational status, functional status at discharge, global cognitive functioning, perceptual ability, executive functioning, involvement in vocational rehabilitation services and emotional status. Conclusions : A conceptual model is presented which emphasises the importance of metacognitive, emotional and social environment factors for improving employment outcome.

Predicting Non Return to Work after Orthopaedic Trauma: The Wallis Occupational Rehabilitation RisK (WORRK) Model.

BACKGROUND: Workers with persistent disabilities after orthopaedic trauma may need occupational rehabilitation. Despite various risk profiles for non-return-to-work (non-RTW), there is no available predictive model. Moreover, injured workers may have various origins (immigrant workers), which may either affect their return to work or their eligibility for research purposes. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive model that estimates the likelihood of non-RTW after occupational rehabilitation using predictors which do not rely on the worker's background. METHODS: Prospective cohort study (3177 participants, native (51%) and immigrant workers (49%)) with two samples: a) Development sample with patients from 2004 to 2007 with Full and Reduced Models, b) External validation of the Reduced Model with patients from 2008 to March 2010. We collected patients' data and biopsychosocial complexity with an observer rated interview (INTERMED). Non-RTW was assessed two years after discharge from the rehabilitation. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and calibration was evaluated with a calibration plot. The model was reduced with random forests. RESULTS: At 2 years, the non-RTW status was known for 2462 patients (77.5% of the total sample). The prevalence of non-RTW was 50%. The full model (36 items) and the reduced model (19 items) had acceptable discrimination performance (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.78 and 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.76, respectively) and good calibration. For the validation model, the discrimination performance was acceptable (AUC 0.73; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.77) and calibration was also adequate. CONCLUSIONS: Non-RTW may be predicted with a simple model constructed with variables independent of the patient's education and language fluency. This model is useful for all kinds of trauma in order to adjust for case mix and it is applicable to vulnerable populations like immigrant workers.

Cerebral oximetry and return of spontaneous circulation after cardiac arrest: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIM: The prediction of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) during resuscitation of patients suffering of cardiac arrest (CA) is particularly challenging. Regional cerebral oxygen saturation (rSO2) monitoring through near-infrared spectrometry is feasible during CA and could provide guidance during resuscitation. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis on the value of rSO2 in predicting ROSC both after in-hospital (IH) or out-of-hospital (OH) CA. Our search included MEDLINE (PubMed) and EMBASE, from inception until April 4th, 2015. We included studies reporting values of rSO2 at the beginning of and/or during resuscitation, according to the achievement of ROSC. RESULTS: A total of nine studies with 315 patients (119 achieving ROSC, 37.7%) were included in the meta-analysis. The majority of those patients had an OHCA (n=225, 71.5%; IHCA: n=90, 28.5%). There was a significant association between higher values of rSO2 and ROSC, both in the overall calculation (standardized mean difference, SMD -1.03; 95%CI -1.39,-0.67; p<0.001), and in the subgroups analyses (rSO2 at the beginning of resuscitation: SMD -0.79; 95%CI -1.29,-0.30; p=0.002; averaged rSO2 value during resuscitation: SMD -1.28; 95%CI -1.74,-0.83; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Higher initial and average regional cerebral oxygen saturation values are both associated with greater chances of achieving ROSC in patients suffering of CA. A note of caution should be made in interpreting these results due to the small number of patients and the heterogeneity in study design: larger studies are needed to clinically validate cut-offs for guiding cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

Research note: amendments to the model for predicting age at sexual maturity for growing pullets of layer strains following changes in photoperiod

A model was published by Lewis et al. (2002) to predict the mean age at first egg (AFE) for pullets of laying strains reared under non-limiting environmental conditions and exposed to a single change in photoperiod during the rearing stage. Subsequently, Lewis et al. (2003) reported the effects of two opposing changes in photoperiod, which showed that the first change appears to alter the pullet's physiological age so that it responds to the second change as though it had been given at an earlier age (if photoperiod was decreased), or later age (if photoperiod was increased) than the true chronological age. During the construction of a computer model based on these two publications, it became apparent that some of the components of the models needed adjustment. The amendments relate to (1) the standard deviation (S.D.) used for calculating the proportion of a young flock that has attained photosensitivity, (2) the equation for calculating the slope of the line relating AFE to age at transfer from one photoperiod to another, (3) the equation used for estimating the distribution of AFE as a function of the mean value, (4) the point of no return when pullets which have started spontaneous maturation in response to the current photoperiod can no longer respond to a late change in photoperiod and (5) the equations used for calculating the distribution of AFE when the trait is bimodal.

Predicting stock index volatility: can market volume help?

This paper explores a number of statistical models for predicting the daily stock return volatility of an aggregate of all stocks traded on the NYSE. An application of linear and non-linear Granger causality tests highlights evidence of bidirectional causality, although the relationship is stronger from volatility to volume than the other way around. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of various linear, GARCH, EGARCH, GJR and neural network models of volatility are evaluated and compared. The models are also augmented by the addition of a measure of lagged volume to form more general ex-ante forecasting models. The results indicate that augmenting models of volatility with measures of lagged volume leads only to very modest improvements, if any, in forecasting performance.

Predicting entry of Swedish wholesale firms into local markets

Applying microeconomic theory, we develop a forecasting model for firm entry into local markets and test this model using data from the Swedish wholesale industry. The empirical analysis is based on directly estimating the profit function of wholesale firms. As in previous entry studies, profits are assumed to depend on firm- and location-specific factors,and the profit equation is estimated using panel data econometric techniques. Using the residuals from the profit equation estimations, we identify local markets in Sweden where firm profits are abnormally high given the level of all independent variables included in the profit function. From microeconomic theory, we then know that these local markets should have higher net entry than other markets, all else being equal, and we investigate this in a second step,also using a panel data econometric model. The results of estimating the net-entry equation indicate that four of five estimated models have more net entry in high-return municipalities, but the estimated parameter is only statistically significant at conventional levels in one of our estimated models.

Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index

This paper performs a thorough statistical examination of the time-series properties of the daily market volatility index (VIX) from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). The motivation lies not only on the widespread consensus that the VIX is a barometer of the overall market sentiment as to what concerns investors' risk appetite, but also on the fact that there are many trading strategies that rely on the VIX index for hedging and speculative purposes. Preliminary analysis suggests that the VIX index displays long-range dependence. This is well in line with the strong empirical evidence in the literature supporting long memory in both options-implied and realized variances. We thus resort to both parametric and semiparametric heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) processes for modeling and forecasting purposes. Our main ndings are as follows. First, we con rm the evidence in the literature that there is a negative relationship between the VIX index and the S&P 500 index return as well as a positive contemporaneous link with the volume of the S&P 500 index. Second, the term spread has a slightly negative long-run impact in the VIX index, when possible multicollinearity and endogeneity are controlled for. Finally, we cannot reject the linearity of the above relationships, neither in sample nor out of sample. As for the latter, we actually show that it is pretty hard to beat the pure HAR process because of the very persistent nature of the VIX index.

Predicting returns in U.S. financial sector indices

This study focuses on: (i) the responsiveness of the U.S. financial sector stock indices to foreign exchange (FX) and interest rate changes; and, (ii) the extent to which good model specification can enhance the forecasts from the associated models. Three models are considered. Only the error-correction model (ECM) generated efficient and consistent coefficient estimates. Furthermore, a simple zero lag model in differences which is clearly mis-specified, generated forecasts that are better than those of the ECM, even if the ECM depicts relationships that are more consistent with economic theory. In brief, FX and interest rate changes do not impact on the return-generating process of the stock indices in any substantial way. Most of the variation in the sector stock indices is associated with past variation in the indices themselves and variation in the market-wide stock index. These results have important implications for financial and economic policies.

Predicting Outcomes Of Balloon Laryngoplasty In Children With Subglottic Stenosis.

The treatment of subglottic stenosis in children remains a challenge for the otolaryngologist and may involve procedures such as endoscopy, open surgery, and often both. In the recent past, high-pressure balloons have been used in endoscopic treatment due to their relative facility and high success rates. To report success rates in the treatment of acquired subglottic stenosis with balloon laryngoplasty in children and identify predictive factors for the success of the technique and its complications. Descriptive, prospective study of children who were diagnosed with acquired subglottic stenosis and underwent balloon laryngoplasty as the primary treatment. Balloon laryngoplasty was performed in 48 children with an average age of 20.7 months: 31 presented with chronic subglottic stenosis and 17 with acute stenosis. Success rate was 100% for acute and 39% for chronic subglottic stenosis. Success was significantly associated with several factors, including recently acquired stenosis, initial grade of stenosis, younger patient age, and the absence of tracheotomy. Complications were transitory dysphagia observed in three children and a submucosal cyst in one of the patients. Balloon laryngoplasty may be considered as a first line of treatment for acquired subglottic stenosis. In acute cases, the success rate was 100%, and even though results are less promising in chronic cases, complications were not significant and the patients can undergo open surgery without contraindications. Predictive factors of success were acute stenosis, less severe grades of stenosis, younger patient age, and the absence of tracheotomy.

The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

Predicting MAOD using only a supramaximal exhaustive test

The objective of this study was to propose an alternative method (MAOD(ALT)) to estimate the maximal accumulated oxygen deficit (MAOD) using only one supramaximal exhaustive test. Nine participants performed the following tests: (a) a maximal incremental exercise test, (b) six submaximal constant workload tests, and (c) a supramaximal constant workload test. Traditional MAOD was determined by calculating the difference between predicted O(2) demand and accumulated O(2) uptake during the supramaximal test. MAOD(ALT) was established by summing the fast component of excess post-exercise oxygen consumption and the O(2) equivalent for energy provided by blood lactate accumulation, both of which were measured during the supramaximal test. There was no significant difference between MAOD (2.82 +/- 0.45 L) and MAOD(ALT) (2.77 +/- 0.37 L) (p = 0.60). The correlation between MAOD and MAOD(ALT) was also high (r = 0.78; p = 0.014). These data indicate that the MAOD(ALT) can be used to estimate the MAOD.

Predicting glass-forming compositions in the Al-La and Al-La-Ni systems

In this work, a criterion considering the topological instability (lambda) and the differences in the electronegativity of the constituent elements (Delta e) was applied to the Al-La and Al-Ni-La systems in order to predict the best glass-forming compositions. The results were compared with literature data and with our own experimental data for the Al-La-Ni system. The alloy described in the literature as the best glass former in the Al-La system is located near the point with local maximum for the lambda.Delta e criterion. A good agreement was found between the predictions of the lambda.Delta e criterion and literature data in the Al-La-Ni system, with the region of the best glass-forming ability (GFA) and largest supercooled liquid region (Delta T(x)) coinciding with the best compositional region for amorphization indicated by the lambda.Delta e criterion. Four new glassy compositions were found in the Al-La-Ni system, with the best predicted composition presenting the best glass-forming ability observed so far for this system. Although the lambda.Delta e criterion needs further refinements for completely describe the glass-forming ability in the Al-La and Al-La-Ni systems, the results demonstrated that this criterion is a good tool to predict new glass-forming compositions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Investigation of a method for predicting AUV derivatives

The paper addresses the problem of autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) modelling and parameter estimation as a means to predict the dynamic performance of underwater vehicles and thus provide solid guidelines during their design phase. The use of analytical and semi-empirical (ASE) methods to estimate the hydrodynamic derivatives of a popular class of AUVs is discussed. A comparison is done with the results obtained by using computational fluid dynamics to evaluate the bare hull lift force distribution around a fully submerged body. An application is made to the estimation of the hydrodynamic derivatives of the MAYA AUV, an autonomous underwater vehicle developed under a joint Indian-Portuguese project. The estimates obtained were used to predict the turning diameter of the vehicle during sea trials. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.