Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression

Forecasting wind power is an important part of a successful integration of wind power into the power grid. Forecasts with lead times longer than 6 h are generally made by using statistical methods to post-process forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems. Two major problems that complicate this approach are the non-linear relationship between wind speed and power production and the limited range of power production between zero and nominal power of the turbine. In practice, these problems are often tackled by using non-linear non-parametric regression models. However, such an approach ignores valuable and readily available information: the power curve of the turbine's manufacturer. Much of the non-linearity can be directly accounted for by transforming the observed power production into wind speed via the inverse power curve so that simpler linear regression models can be used. Furthermore, the fact that the transformed power production has a limited range can be taken care of by employing censored regression models. In this study, we evaluate quantile forecasts from a range of methods: (i) using parametric and non-parametric models, (ii) with and without the proposed inverse power curve transformation and (iii) with and without censoring. The results show that with our inverse (power-to-wind) transformation, simpler linear regression models with censoring perform equally or better than non-linear models with or without the frequently used wind-to-power transformation.

Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

Aferição do desempenho operacional de parques eólicos (Referência: D0708-047)

A verificação das Características Garantidas associadas aos equipamentos, em especial dos aerogeradores, incluídos no fornecimento de Parques Eólicos, reveste-se de particular importância devido, principalmente, ao grande volume de investimento em jogo, ao longo período necessário ao retorno do mesmo, à incerteza quanto à manutenção futura das actuais condições de remuneração da energia eléctrica produzida e ainda à falta de dados históricos sobre o período de vida útil esperado para os aerogeradores. Em face do exposto, é usual serem exigidas aos fornecedores, garantias do bom desempenho dos equipamentos, associadas a eventuais penalidades, quer para o período de garantia, quer para o restante período de vida útil, de modo a minimizar o risco associado ao investimento. No fornecimento de Parques Eólicos existem usualmente três tipos de garantias, nomeadamente, garantia de Curva de Potência dos aerogeradores, garantia de Disponibilidade dos equipamentos ou garantia de Produção de Energia. Estas poderão existir isoladamente ou em combinação, dependendo das condições contratuais acordadas entre o Adjudicatário e o Fornecedor. O grau de complexidade e/ou trabalho na implementação das mesmas é variável, não sendo possível afirmar qual delas é a mais conveniente para o Adjudicatário, nem qual a mais exacta em termos de resultados. Estas dúvidas surgem em consequência das dificuldades inerentes à recolha dos próprios dados e também da relativamente ampla margem de rearranjo dos resultados permitido pelas normas existentes, possibilitando a introdução de certo tipo de manipulações nos dados (rejeições e correlações), as quais podem afectar de forma considerável as incertezas dos resultados finais dos ensaios. Este trabalho, consistiu no desenvolvimento, execução, ensaio e implementação de uma ferramenta informática capaz de detectar de uma forma simples e expedita eventuais desvios à capacidade de produção esperada para os aerogeradores, em função do recurso verificado num dado período. Pretende ser uma ferramenta manuseável por qualquer operador de supervisão, com utilização para efeitos de reparações e correcção de defeitos, não constituindo contudo uma alternativa a outros processos abrangidos por normas, no caso de aplicação de penalidades. Para o seu funcionamento, são utilizados os dados mensais recolhidos pela torre meteorológica permanente instalada no parque e os dados de funcionamento dos aerogeradores, recolhidos pelo sistema SCADA. Estes são recolhidos remotamente sob a forma de tabelas e colocados numa directoria própria, na qual serão posteriormente lidos pela ferramenta.

Desenvolvimento de apoio à decisão operacional – previsão de curto prazo de geração distribuída de tecnologia eólica ligada à RND

No contexto da penetração de energias renováveis no sistema elétrico, Portugal ocupa uma posição de destaque a nível mundial, muito devido à produção de eólica. Com um sistema elétrico com forte presença de fontes de energia renováveis, novos desafios surgem, nomeadamente no caso da energia eólica pela sua imprevisibilidade e volatilidade. O recurso eólico embora seja ilimitado não é armazenável, surgindo assim a necessidade da procura de modelos de previsão de produção de energia elétrica dos parques eólicos de modo a permitir uma boa gestão do sistema. Nesta dissertação apresentam-se as contribuições resultantes de um trabalho de pesquisa e investigação sobre modelos de previsão da potência elétrica com base em valores de previsões meteorológicas, nomeadamente, valores previstos da intensidade e direção do vento. Consideraram-se dois tipos de modelos: paramétricos e não paramétricos. Os primeiros são funções polinomiais de vários graus e a função sigmoide, os segundos são redes neuronais artificiais. Para a estimação dos modelos e respetiva validação, são usados dados recolhidos ao longo de dois anos e três meses no parque eólico do Pico Alto de potência instalada de 6 MW. De forma a otimizar os resultados da previsão, consideram-se diferentes classes de perfis de produção, definidas com base em quatro e oito direções do vento, e ajustam-se os modelos propostos em cada uma das classes. São apresentados e discutidos resultados de uma análise comparativa do desempenho dos diferentes modelos propostos para a previsão da potência.

Simulation of wind powered hydraulic heating system

The objective of this master’s thesis was to design and simulate a wind powered hydraulic heating system that can operate independently in remote places where the use of electricity is not possible. Components for the system were to be selected in such a way that the conditions for manufacture, use and economic viability are the as good as possible. Savonius rotor was chosen for wind turbine, due to its low cut in speed and robust design. Savonius rotor produces kinetic energy in wide wind speed range and it can withstand high wind gusts. Radial piston pump was chosen for the flow source of the hydraulic heater. Pump type was selected due to its characteristics in low rotation speeds and high efficiency. Volume flow from the pump is passed through the throttle orifice. Pressure drop over the orifice causes the hydraulic oil to heat up and, thus, creating thermal energy. Thermal energy in the oil is led to radiator where it conducts heat to the environment. The hydraulic heating system was simulated. For this purpose a mathematical models of chosen components were created. In simulation wind data gathered by Finnish meteorological institute for 167 hours was used as input. The highest produced power was achieved by changing the orifice diameter so that the rotor tip speed ratio follows the power curve. This is not possible to achieve without using electricity. Thus, for the orifice diameter only one, the optimal value was defined. Results from the simulation were compared with investment calculations. Different parameters effecting the investment profitability were altered in sensitivity analyses in order to define the points of investment profitability. Investment was found to be profitable only with high average wind speeds.

Techniques for Enhancing Wind Energy Generation - A CFD Based Multibody Dynamics Approach in Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines

Wind energy has emerged as a major sustainable source of energy.The efficiency of wind power generation by wind mills has improved a lot during the last three decades.There is still further scope for maximising the conversion of wind energy into mechanical energy.In this context,the wind turbine rotor dynamics has great significance.The present work aims at a comprehensive study of the Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine (HAWT) aerodynamics by numerically solving the fluid dynamic equations with the help of a finite-volume Navier-Stokes CFD solver.As a more general goal,the study aims at providing the capabilities of modern numerical techniques for the complex fluid dynamic problems of HAWT.The main purpose is hence to maximize the physics of power extraction by wind turbines.This research demonstrates the potential of an incompressible Navier-Stokes CFD method for the aerodynamic power performance analysis of horizontal axis wind turbine.The National Renewable Energy Laboratory USA-NREL (Technical Report NREL/Cp-500-28589) had carried out an experimental work aimed at the real time performance prediction of horizontal axis wind turbine.In addition to a comparison between the results reported by NREL made and CFD simulations,comparisons are made for the local flow angle at several stations ahead of the wind turbine blades.The comparison has shown that fairly good predictions can be made for pressure distribution and torque.Subsequently, the wind-field effects on the blade aerodynamics,as well as the blade/tower interaction,were investigated.The selected case corresponded to a 12.5 m/s up-wind HAWT at zero degree of yaw angle and a rotational speed of 25 rpm.The results obtained suggest that the present can cope well with the flows encountered around wind turbines.The areodynamic performance of the turbine and the flow details near and off the turbine blades and tower can be analysed using theses results.The aerodynamic performance of airfoils differs from one another.The performance mainly depends on co-efficient of performnace,co-efficient of lift,co-efficient of drag, velocity of fluid and angle of attack.This study shows that the velocity is not constant for all angles of attack of different airfoils.The performance parameters are calculated analytically and are compared with the standardized performance tests.For different angles of ,the velocity stall is determined for the better performance of a system with respect to velocity.The research addresses the effect of surface roughness factor on the blade surface at various sections.The numerical results were found to be in agreement with the experimental data.A relative advantage of the theoretical aerofoil design method is that it allows many different concepts to be explored economically.Such efforts are generally impractical in wind tunnels because of time and money constraints.Thus, the need for a theoretical aerofoil design method is threefold:first for the design of aerofoil that fall outside the range of applicability of existing calalogs:second,for the design of aerofoil that more exactly match the requirements of the intended application:and third,for the economic exploration of many aerofoil concepts.From the results obtained for the different aerofoils,the velocity is not constant for all angles of attack.The results obtained for the aerofoil mainly depend on angle of attack and velocity.The vortex generator technique was meticulously studies with the formulation of the specification for the right angle shaped vortex generators-VG.The results were validated in accordance with the primary analysis phase.The results were found to be in good agreement with the power curve.The introduction of correct size VGs at appropriate locations over the blades of the selected HAWT was found to increase the power generation by about 4%

Identification of stimulatory and inhibitory inputs to the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis during hypoglycaemia or transport in ewes

This study used the novel approach of statistical modelling to investigate the control of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and quantify temporal relationships between hormones. Two experimental paradigms were chosen, insulin-induced hypoglycaemia and 2 h transport, to assess differences in control between noncognitive and cognitive stimuli. Vasopressin and corticotropin-releasing hormone (CRH) were measured in hypophysial portal plasma, and adrenocorticotropin hormone (ACTH) and cortisol in jugular plasma of conscious sheep, and deconvolution analysis was used to calculate secretory rates, before modelling. During hypoglycaemia, the relationship between plasma glucose and vasopressin or CRH was best described by log(10) transforming variables (i.e. a positive power-curve relationship). A negative-feedback relationship with log(10) cortisol concentration 2 h previously was detected. Analysis of the 'transport' stimulus suggested that the strength of the perceived stimulus decreased over time after accounting for cortisol facilitation and negative-feedback. The time course of vasopressin and CRH responses to each stimulus were different However, at the pituitary level, the data suggested that log(10) ACTH secretion rate was related to log(10) vasopressin and CRH concentrations with very similar regression coefficients and an identical ratio of actions (2.3 : 1) for both stimuli. Similar magnitude negative-feedback effects of log(10) cortisol at -110 min (hypoglycaemia) or -40 min (transport) were detected, and both models contained a stimulatory relationship with cortisol at 0 min (facilitation). At adrenal gland level, cortisol secretory rates were related to simultaneously measured untransformed ACTH concentration but the regression coefficient for the hypoglycaemia model was 2.5-fold greater than for transport. No individual sustained maximum cortisol secretion for longer than 20 min during hypoglycaemia and 40 min during transport. These unique models demonstrate that corticosteroid negative-feedback is a significant control mechanism at both the pituitary and hypothalamus. The amplitude of HPA response may be related to stimulus intensity and corticosteroid negative-feedback, while duration depended on feedback alone.

A conditional likelihood ratio test for structural models

This paper develops a general method for constructing similar tests based on the conditional distribution of nonpivotal statistics in a simultaneous equations model with normal errors and known reducedform covariance matrix. The test based on the likelihood ratio statistic is particularly simple and has good power properties. When identification is strong, the power curve of this conditional likelihood ratio test is essentially equal to the power envelope for similar tests. Monte Carlo simulations also suggest that this test dominates the Anderson- Rubin test and the score test. Dropping the restrictive assumption of disturbances normally distributed with known covariance matrix, approximate conditional tests are found that behave well in small samples even when identification is weak.

Modelagem de usinas eólicas através de um processo de Markov e técnicas de confiabilidade para a estimativa anual da energia produzida

This study aims to use a computational model that considers the statistical characteristics of the wind and the reliability characteristics of a wind turbine, such as failure rates and repair, representing the wind farm by a Markov process to determine the estimated annual energy generated, and compare it with a real case. This model can also be used in reliability studies, and provides some performance indicators that will help in analyzing the feasibility of setting up a wind farm, once the power curve is known and the availability of wind speed measurements. To validate this model, simulations were done using the database of the wind farm of Macau PETROBRAS. The results were very close to the real, thereby confirming that the model successfully reproduced the behavior of all components involved. Finally, a comparison was made of the results presented by this model, with the result of estimated annual energy considering the modeling of the distribution wind by a statistical distribution of Weibull

Bancada experimental para ensaios em geradores elétricos utilizados em aerogeradores de pequeno porte

Este trabalho apresenta uma bancada para testes em geradores elétricos, utilizados em aerogeradores de pequeno porte. O sistema é composto basicamente por um motor de indução trifásico, que simula um rotor eólico, acoplado mecanicamente ao gerador elétrico submetido ao ensaio; um inversor de frequência, usado para variação da velocidade do motor; transdutores de grandezas elétricas, que efetuam a medição dos parâmetros de interesse (tensões e correntes instantâneas) na saída do gerador; um sensor de velocidade angular, para medição da rotação que é fornecida ao eixo do motor; um microcomputador, para monitoração e armazenamento dos parâmetros medidos, e controle do inversor de frequência, por meio de um programa computacional desenvolvido; e uma placa de aquisição de dados, que serve como interface entre os transdutores/sensores e o microcomputador. A velocidade angular fornecida ao gerador em ensaio pode ser variada conforme valores fornecidos de velocidades de vento, as quais são associadas a valores correspondentes de rotação, a fim de simular o comportamento de um rotor eólico. Dessa forma, é possível traçar a curva de potência (potência versus velocidade de vento) do gerador ensaiado e analisar seu desempenho. Apresenta-se também neste trabalho os resultados de medições realizadas na bancada, referentes aos ensaios de um gerador comercial de pequena potência (1 kW) e de outro desenvolvido em projeto de pesquisa, ambos do tipo de imã permanente com fluxo axial.

Description of an 8 MW reference wind turbine

An 8 MW wind turbine is described in terms of mass distribution, dimensions, power curve, thrust curve, maximum design load and tower configuration. This turbine has been described as part of the EU FP7 project LEANWIND in order to facilitate research into logistics and naval architecture efficiencies for future offshore wind installations. The design of this 8 MW reference wind turbine has been checked and validated by the design consultancy DNV-GL. This turbine description is intended to bridge the gap between the NREL 5 MW and DTU 10 MW reference turbines and thus contribute to the standardisation of research and development activities in the offshore wind energy industry.

Wind turbine indirect ice detection and operational analysis

Wind energy is one of the most promising and fast growing sector of energy production. Wind is ecologically friendly and relatively cheap energy resource available for development in practically all corners of the world (where only the wind blows). Today wind power gained broad development in the Scandinavian countries. Three important challenges concerning sustainable development, i.e. energy security, climate change and energy access make a compelling case for large-scale utilization of wind energy. In Finland, according to the climate and energy strategy, accepted in 2008, the total consumption of electricity generated by means of wind farms by 2020, should reach 6 - 7% of total consumption in the country [1]. The main challenges associated with wind energy production are harsh operational conditions that often accompany the turbine operation in the climatic conditions of the north and poor accessibility for maintenance and service. One of the major problems that require a solution is the icing of turbine structures. Icing reduces the performance of wind turbines, which in the conditions of a long cold period, can significantly affect the reliability of power supply. In order to predict and control power performance, the process of ice accretion has to be carefully tracked. There are two ways to detect icing – directly or indirectly. The first way applies to the special ice detection instruments. The second one is using indirect characteristics of turbine performance. One of such indirect methods for ice detection and power loss estimation has been proposed and used in this paper. The results were compared to the results directly gained from the ice sensors. The data used was measured in Muukko wind farm, southeast Finland during a project 'Wind power in cold climate and complex terrain'. The project was carried out in 9/2013 - 8/2015 with the partners Lappeenranta university of technology, Alstom renovables España S.L., TuuliMuukko, and TuuliSaimaa.

Evaluation of the Electric Vehicle Impact in the Power Demand Curve in a Smart Grid Environment

Smart grids with an intensive penetration of distributed energy resources will play an important role in future power system scenarios. The intermittent nature of renewable energy sources brings new challenges, requiring an efficient management of those sources. Additional storage resources can be beneficially used to address this problem; the massive use of electric vehicles, particularly of vehicle-to-grid (usually referred as gridable vehicles or V2G), becomes a very relevant issue. This paper addresses the impact of Electric Vehicles (EVs) in system operation costs and in power demand curve for a distribution network with large penetration of Distributed Generation (DG) units. An efficient management methodology for EVs charging and discharging is proposed, considering a multi-objective optimization problem. The main goals of the proposed methodology are: to minimize the system operation costs and to minimize the difference between the minimum and maximum system demand (leveling the power demand curve). The proposed methodology perform the day-ahead scheduling of distributed energy resources in a distribution network with high penetration of DG and a large number of electric vehicles. It is used a 32-bus distribution network in the case study section considering different scenarios of EVs penetration to analyze their impact in the network and in the other energy resources management.

Key Agreement Protocol Using Elliptic Curve Matrix Power Function

* Work is partially supported by the Lithuanian State Science and Studies Foundation.

Analysis of the E-J Curve of HTS Tapes Under DC and AC Magnetic Fields at 77 K

The evaluation of the electrical characteristics of technical HTS tapes are of the key importance in determining the design and operational features of superconducting power apparatuses as well as to understand the external factors which affect the superconducting performance. In this work we report the systematic measurements of the electric field versus current density, E-J relation of short samples for three commercial HTS tapes (BSCCO-2223 tapes, with and without steel reinforcement, and YBCO-coated conductor) at 77 K. In order to get sensitive and noiseless voltage signals the measurements were carried out with DC transport current and subjecting the broad surface tape to DC (0-300 mT) and AC (0-62 mT, 60 Hz) magnetic fields. The voltage is measured by a sensitive nanovoltmeter and the applied magnetic field is monitored by a Hall sensor placed on the tape broad surface. The comparison between the results obtained from the three tapes was done by fitting a power-law equation for currents in the vicinity of the critical current. For the current regime below the critical one a linear correlation of the electric field against the current density is observed. The BSCCO samples presented the same behavior, i.e., a decreasing of n-index with the increasing DC and AC magnetic field strength. Under AC field the decreasing slope of n-index is steeper as compared to DC field. The n-index curve for the YBCO tape showed similar behavior for AC field, however under DC field in the 0-390 mT range exhibited a slight decreasing of the n-index.