The recent occurrence, establishment and potential impact of Geophagus proximus (Cichlidae : Perciformes) in the Tiete River reservoirs: an Amazonian fish species introduced in the Parana Basin (Brazil)

The introduction of allochthonous fish species happens constantly in large bodies of freshwater, like as the reservoirs of Parana Basin, located in Brazilian southeast, representing a threat for local biodiversity. The fish species Plagioscion squamosissimus and Cichla ocellaris were introduced from the 1970s in several water bodies of this basin and had successfully established themselves in all six reservoirs located in the middle and lower Tiete River (SP, Brazil), particularly. After six decades from the first recorded species introduction, this hydrographic system remains open to the invasion of further fish species, owing to widespread fish-farming activity and by the channels opened between this system and other reservoirs and river basin. This study was an effort to confirm the Geophagus proximus occurrence in the six Tiete River reservoirs, verifying the actual introduction status and analyzing its potential environmental impacts on local species by the analysis of the population structure (abundance, body dimensions and feeding habits). By the results, this species was confirmed in the Ibitinga, Nova Avanhandava and Tres Irmaos reservoirs. The abundance and feeding analysis shows, respectively, it is successfully established in the Tres Irmaos reservoir with the same feeding habitats of local species, such as Geophagus brasiliensis. It was further shown to be very likely that G. proximus would spread throughout the reservoir system of the middle and lower Tiete River, in the manner of P. squamosissimus and C. ocellaris, and the competition pressure for food resources between G. proximus and the local species which represents a potential environmental impact system. These scientific evidences fortifies the knowledge basin for the implantation of a fish management system, to control and reduce the abundance of the invader and to prevent its becoming established in all the Tiete River Basin, avoiding the disastrous consequences for the native species of Parana River Basin.

The Potential Impact of Using Donations After Cardiac Death on the Liver Transplantation Program and Waiting List in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Liver transplantation was first performed at the University of Sao Paulo School of Medicine in 1968. Since then, the patient waiting list for liver transplantation has increased at a rate of 150 new cases per month. Liver transplantation itself rose 1.84-fold (from 160 to 295) from 1988 to 2004. However, the number of patients on the liver waiting list jumped 2.71-fold (from 553 to 1500). Consequently, the number of deaths on the liver waiting list moved to a higher level, from 321 to 671, increasing 2.09-fold. We have applied a mathematical model to analyze the potential impact of using a donation after cardiac death (DCD) policy on our liver transplantation program and on the waiting list. Five thousand one hundred people died because of accidents and other violent causes in our state in 2004; of these, only 295 were donors of liver grafts that were transplanted. The model assumed that 5% of these grafts would have been DCD. We found a relative reduction of 27% in the size of the liver transplantation waiting list if DCD had been used by assuming that 248 additional liver transplants would have been performed annually. In conclusion, the use of DCD in our transplantation program would reduce the pressure on our liver transplantation waiting list, reducing it by at least 27%. On the basis of this model, the projected number of averted deaths is about 41,487 in the next 20 years. Liver Transpl 14:1732-1736, 2008. (C) 2008 AASLD.

Potential impact of a presumed increase in the biting activity of dengue-virus-infected Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) females on virus transmission dynamics

Recently, we showed that infection with dengue virus increases the locomotor activity of Aedes aegypti females. We speculate that the observed increased locomotor activity could potentially increase the chances of finding a suitable host and, as a consequence, the relative biting rate of infected mosquitoes. We used a mathematical model to investigate the impact of the increased locomotor activity by assuming that this activity translated into an increased biting rate for infected mosquitoes. The results show that the increased biting rate resulted in dengue outbreaks with greater numbers of primary and secondary infections and with more severe biennial epidemics.

Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review

Based on conclusions drawn from general climatic impact assessment in mountain regions, the review synthesizes results relevant to the European Alps published mainly from 1994 onward in the fields of population genetics, ecophysiology, phenology, phytogeography, modeling, paleoecology and vegetation dynamics. Other important factors of global change interacting synergistically with climatic factors are also mentioned, such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, eutrophication, ozone or changes in land-use. Topics addressed are general species distribution and populations (persistence, acclimation, genetic variability, dispersal, fragmentation, plant/animal interaction, species richness, conservation), potential response of vegetation (ecotonal shift - area, physiography - changes in the composition, structural changes), phenology, growth and productivity, and landscape. In conclusion, the European Alps appear to have a natural inertia and thus to tolerate an increase of 1-2 K of mean air temperature as far as plant species and ecosystems are concerned in general. However, the impact of land-use is very likely to negate this buffer in many areas. For a change of the order of 3 K or more, profound changes may be expected.

Potential impact of single-risk-factor versus total risk management for the prevention of cardiovascular events in Seychelles.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in Seychelles, a middle-income African country, and compare the cost-effectiveness of single-risk-factor management (treating individuals with arterial blood pressure >/= 140/90 mmHg and/or total serum cholesterol >/= 6.2 mmol/l) with that of management based on total CV risk (treating individuals with a total CV risk >/= 10% or >/= 20%).METHODS: CV risk factor prevalence and a CV risk prediction chart for Africa were used to estimate the 10-year risk of suffering a fatal or non-fatal CV event among individuals aged 40-64 years. These figures were used to compare single-risk-factor management with total risk management in terms of the number of people requiring treatment to avert one CV event and the number of events potentially averted over 10 years. Treatment for patients with high total CV risk (>/= 20%) was assumed to consist of a fixed-dose combination of several drugs (polypill). Cost analyses were limited to medication.FINDINGS: A total CV risk of >/= 10% and >/= 20% was found among 10.8% and 5.1% of individuals, respectively. With single-risk-factor management, 60% of adults would need to be treated and 157 cardiovascular events per 100 000 population would be averted per year, as opposed to 5% of adults and 92 events with total CV risk management. Management based on high total CV risk optimizes the balance between the number requiring treatment and the number of CV events averted.CONCLUSION: Total CV risk management is much more cost-effective than single-risk-factor management. These findings are relevant for all countries, but especially for those economically and demographically similar to Seychelles.

Potential impact of environmental bacteriophages in spreading antibiotic resistance genes

The idea that bacteriophage transduction plays a role in the horizontal transfer of antibiotic resistance genes is gaining momentum. Such transduction might be vital in horizontal transfer from environmental to human bodyassociated biomes and here we review many lines of evidence supporting this notion. It is well accepted that bacteriophages are the most abundant entities in most environments, where they have been shown to be quite persistent. This fact, together with the ability of many phages to infect bacteria belonging to different taxa, makes them suitable vehicles for gene transfer. Metagenomic studies confirm that substantial percentages of the bacteriophage particles present in most environments contain bacterial genes, including mobile genetic elements and antibiotic resistance genes. When specific genes of resistance to antibiotics are detected by real-time PCR in the bacteriophage populations of different environments, only tenfold lower numbers of these genes are observed, compared with those found in the corresponding bacterial populations. In addition, the antibiotic resistance genes from these bacteriophages are functional and generate resistance to the bacteria when these genes are transfected. Finally, reports about the transduction of antibiotic resistance genes are on the increase.

The potential impact of new effervescent alendronate formulation on compliance and persistence in osteoporosis treatment.

Osteoporotic fractures are a public health problem and their incidence and subsequent economic and social costs are expected to rise in the next future. Different drugs have been developed to reduce osteoporosis and the risk of osteoporotic fractures, and among them, antiresorptive agents, and in particular oral alendronate, are the most widely utilized. However, one of the most common problems with antiresorptive drugs is poor adherence to treatment, which is associated with a high fracture incidence and with an increase in hospitalization costs. One of the main reasons of poor adherence to these treatments is the occurrence of adverse events, mainly at gastrointestinal (GI) level, including dyspepsia, dysphagia, and esophageal ulcers. In light of these considerations the aim of this paper is to perform a literature review to show the pathophysiologic bases of GI alendronate-induced adverse events and how new bisphosphonate formulations like effervescent alendronate can improve compliance and persistence to treatment and decrease the fracture rate incidence in osteoporotic patients.

Potential impact of environmental bacteriophages in spreading antibiotic resistance genes

The idea that bacteriophage transduction plays a role in the horizontal transfer of antibiotic resistance genes is gaining momentum. Such transduction might be vital in horizontal transfer from environmental to human body-associated biomes and here we review many lines of evidence supporting this notion. It is well accepted that bacteriophages are the most abundant entities in most environments, where they have been shown to be quite persistent. This fact, together with the ability of many phages to infect bacteria belonging to different taxa, makes them suitable vehicles for gene transfer. Metagenomic studies confirm that substantial percentages of the bacteriophage particles present in most environments contain bacterial genes, including mobile genetic elements and antibiotic resistance genes. When specific genes of resistance to antibiotics are detected by real-time PCR in the bacteriophage populations of different environments, only tenfold lower numbers of these genes are observed, compared with those found in the corresponding bacterial populations. In addition, the antibiotic resistance genes from these bacteriophages are functional and generate resistance to the bacteria when these genes are transfected. Finally, reports about the transduction of antibiotic resistance genes are on the increase.

Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.

An exploratory assessment of the potential impact of the free trade area of the americas on the andean community

A través de una simulación llevada a cabo con GTAP, este documento presenta una evaluación preliminar del impacto potencial que el Área de Libre Comercio de las Américas tendría sobre la Comunidad Andina de Naciones. Mantenido por la Universidad de Purdue, el GTAP es un modelo multiregional de equilibrio general, ampliamente usado para el análisis de temas de economía internacional. El experimento llevado a cabo tiene lugar en un ambiente de competencia perfecta y rendimientos constantes a escala y consiste en la completa eliminación de aranceles a las importaciones de bienes entre los países del Hemisferio Occidental. Los resultados muestran la presencia de modestas pero positivas ganancias netas de bienestar para la Comunidad Andina, generadas fundamentalmente por mejoras en la asignación de recursos. Movimientos desfavorables en los términos de intercambio y el efecto de la desviación de comercio con respecto a terceros países, reducen considerablemente las ganancias potenciales de bienestar. De la misma forma, la existencia de distorsiones económicas al interior de la Comunidad Andina tiene un efecto negativo sobre el bienestar. El patrón de comercio aumenta su grado de concentración en el comercio bilateral con los Estados Unidos y la remuneración real a los factores productivos presenta mejoras con la implementación de la zona de libre comercio.

Evaluating the Potential Impact of a Gas Pipeline on Whimbrel Breeding Habitat in the Outer Mackenzie Delta, Northwest Territories

We used ground surveys to identify breeding habitat for Whimbrel (Numenius phaeopus) in the outer Mackenzie Delta, Northwest Territories, and to test the value of high-resolution IKONOS imagery for mapping additional breeding habitat in the Delta. During ground surveys, we found Whimbrel nests (n = 28) in extensive areas of wet-sedge low-centered polygon (LCP) habitat on two islands in the Delta (Taglu and Fish islands) in 2006 and 2007. Supervised classification using spectral analysis of IKONOS imagery successfully identified additional areas of wet-sedge habitat in the region. However, ground surveys to test this classification found that many areas of wet-sedge habitat had dense shrubs, no standing water, and/or lacked polygon structure and did not support breeding Whimbrel. Visual examination of the IKONOS imagery was necessary to determine which areas exhibited LCP structure. Much lower densities of nesting Whimbrel were also found in upland habitats near wetlands. We used habitat maps developed from a combination of methods, to perform scenario analyses to estimate the potential effects of the Mackenzie Gas Project on Whimbrel habitat. Assuming effective complete habitat loss within 20 m, 50 m, or 250 m of any infrastructure or pipeline, the currently proposed pipeline development would result in loss of 8%, 12%, or 30% of existing Whimbrel habitat. If subsidence were to occur, most Whimbrel habitat could become unsuitable. If the facility is developed, follow-up surveys will be required to test these models.