Queues with retrial/self-generation of priorities /postponement of work and some related reliability problems

Application of Queueing theory in areas like Computer networking, ATM facilities, Telecommunications and to many other numerous situation made people study Queueing models extensively and it has become an ever expanding branch of applied probability. The thesis discusses Reliability of a ‘k-out-of-n system’ where the server also attends external customers when there are no failed components (main customers), under a retrial policy, which can be explained in detail. It explains the reliability of a ‘K-out-of-n-system’ where the server also attends external customers and studies a multi-server infinite capacity Queueing system where each customer arrives as ordinary but can generate into priority customer which waiting in the queue. The study gives details on a finite capacity multi-server queueing system with self-generation of priority customers and also on a single server infinite capacity retrial Queue where the customer in the orbit can generate into a priority customer and leaves the system if the server is already busy with a priority generated customer; else he is taken for service immediately. Arrival process is according to a MAP and service times follow MSP.

O Conceito de postponement como estratégia de distribuição: um estudo de multi-casos no mercado brasileiro

Este trabalho discute a implementação da estratégia de postponement, um conceito que vem crescendo de importância nos últimos anos. Postponement é um conceito operacional que consiste em retardar a configuração final de produtos até que os pedidos dos consumidores sejam recebidos. Apesar da atratividade teórica e relevância do tema, pouco ainda se sabe sobre seu processo de implementação, especialmente no ambiente de negócio brasileiro. Este trabalho investigou em profundidade a implementação do postponement em cinco conceituadas empresas no Brasil procurando identificar os motivos que levaram seus respectivos executivos a adotarem tal estratégia, quais foram os agentes facilitadores e os obstáculos à implementação e, finalmente, até que ponto o postponement contribuiu para um aumento da competitividade.

O poder estratégico do postponement

Esta tese discute a implementação da estratégia de postponement, um conceito que vem crescendo de importancia nos últimos anos. Postponement é um conceito operacional que consiste em retardar a configuração final de produtos até que os pedidos dos consumidores sejam recebidos. Apesar da atratividade teórica e relevancia do tema, pouco ainda se sabe sobre seu processo de implementação, especialmente no ambiente de negócio brasileiro. Esta pesquisa investigou em profundidade a implementação de postponement em cinco conceituadas empresas no Brasil procurando identificar os motivos que levaram seus respectivos executivos a adotarem tal estratégia, quais foram os agentes facilitadores e os obstáculos à implementação e, finalmente, até que ponto o postponement contribui para um aumento da competitividade. Também foi realizada uma pesquisa quantitativa para investigar a relação entre aplicações de postponement e características ágeis da cadeia de suprimentos.

The infuence of production systems in postponement make-to-stock compagny in the graphic industry

The supply chain management, postponement and demand management operations are of strategic importance to the economic success of organizations because they directly influence the production process. The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence of the postponement in an enterprise production system with make-to-stock and with seasonal demand. The research method used was a case study, the instruments of data collection were semi-structured interviews, document analysis and site visits. The research is based on the following issues: Demand Management which can be understood as a practice that allows you to manage and coordinate the supply chain in reverse, in which consumers trigger actions for the delivery of products. The Supply Chain Management is able to allow the addition of value, exceeding the expectations of consumers, developing a relationship with suppliers and customer's win-win. The Postponement strategy must fit the characteristics of markets that require variety of customized products and services, lower cost and higher quality, aiming to support decision making. The production system make-to-stock shows enough interest to organizations that are operating in markets with high demand variability. © 2011 IEEE.

Correspondence Bank United States--Three per cent. stock. Letter from the secretary of the Treasury, transmitting the correspondence with the Bank of the United States upon the subject of the postponement of the payment of the three per cent. stock of the United States, &c., &c.

Louis M'Lane, secretary.

Idade e uso de preservativo na iniciação sexual de adolescentes brasileiros

OBJETIVO: Analisar a idade e o uso do preservativo na iniciação sexual de adolescentes brasileiros em dois períodos: 1998 e 2005. MÉTODOS: Amostras representativas da população urbana brasileira foram entrevistadas em inquérito domiciliar por duas pesquisas, realizadas em 1998 e 2005. Dentre os entrevistados, 670 jovens (16 a 19 anos) sexualmente ativos foram selecionados para o estudo, 312 de 1998 e 358 de 2005. Para análise dos dados ponderados foram utilizados o teste qui-quadrado de Pearson e o teste exato de Fisher (±<5%). RESULTADOS: Em 2005, 61,6% dos jovens entrevistados tinham iniciado-se sexualmente, cuja idade média foi 14,9 anos, sem diferenças significativas para os jovens entrevistados em 1998. O uso de preservativo na primeira relação sexual aumentou significativamente em relações estáveis (48,5% em 1998 vs. 67,7% em 2005) e casuais (47,2% em 1998 vs. 62,6% em 2005) em quase todos os segmentos. Persistiram as diferenças relacionadas à iniciação sexual e ao uso de preservativos segundo gênero, cor da pele e escolaridade, tal como observado em 1998. A diminuição no uso de preservativo entre os jovens que se iniciaram sexualmente antes dos 14 anos, em todos os contextos de parceria, foi expressiva na região Sudeste e entre os mais escolarizados. CONCLUSÕES: Como em outros países, observou-se tendência à estabilização da idade da iniciação sexual entre jovens de 15 a 19 anos. O adiamento do início da vida sexual, mais freqüente entre os jovens mais escolarizados, deve ser tema discutido no planejamento da educação dos adolescentes para a sexualidade e prevenção das IST. Quanto à diminuição da vulnerabilidade ao HIV, é relevante e significativo o incremento no uso de preservativo na iniciação sexual.

Sistema de apoio à decisão para a classificação de risco em projectos de tecnologias de informação

O trabalho que a seguir se apresenta tem como objectivo descrever a criação de um modelo que sirva de suporte a um sistema de apoio à decisão sobre o risco inerente à execução de projectos na área das Tecnologias de Informação (TI) recorrendo a técnicas de mineração de dados. Durante o ciclo de vida de um projecto, existem inúmeros factores que contribuem para o seu sucesso ou insucesso. A responsabilidade de monitorizar, antever e mitigar esses factores recai sobre o Gestor de Projecto. A gestão de projectos é uma tarefa difícil e dispendiosa, consome muitos recursos, depende de numerosas variáveis e, muitas vezes, até da própria experiência do Gestor de Projecto. Ao ser confrontado com as previsões de duração e de esforço para a execução de uma determinada tarefa, o Gestor de Projecto, exceptuando a sua percepção e intuição pessoal, não tem um modo objectivo de medir a plausibilidade dos valores que lhe são apresentados pelo eventual executor da tarefa. As referidas previsões são fundamentais para a organização, pois sobre elas são tomadas as decisões de planeamento global estratégico corporativo, de execução, de adiamento, de cancelamento, de adjudicação, de renegociação de âmbito, de adjudicação externa, entre outros. Esta propensão para o desvio, quando detectada numa fase inicial, pode ajudar a gerir melhor o risco associado à Gestão de Projectos. O sucesso de cada projecto terminado foi qualificado tendo em conta a ponderação de três factores: o desvio ao orçamentado, o desvio ao planeado e o desvio ao especificado. Analisando os projectos decorridos, e correlacionando alguns dos seus atributos com o seu grau de sucesso o modelo classifica, qualitativamente, um novo projecto quanto ao seu risco. Neste contexto o risco representa o grau de afastamento do projecto ao sucesso. Recorrendo a algoritmos de mineração de dados, tais como, árvores de classificação e redes neuronais, descreve-se o desenvolvimento de um modelo que suporta um sistema de apoio à decisão baseado na classificação de novos projectos. Os modelos são o resultado de um extensivo conjunto de testes de validação onde se procuram e refinam os indicadores que melhor caracterizam os atributos de um projecto e que mais influenciam o risco. Como suporte tecnológico para o desenvolvimento e teste foi utilizada a ferramenta Weka 3. Uma boa utilização do modelo proposto possibilitará a criação de planos de contingência mais detalhados e uma gestão mais próxima para projectos que apresentem uma maior propensão para o risco. Assim, o resultado final pretende constituir mais uma ferramenta à disposição do Gestor de Projecto.

The role of European "ro-ro" port terminals in the automotive supply chain management

The aim of this paper is concerned with the design and development of a functional framework for maritime mode integration in European automotive supply chain management when considering outbound distribution. Furthermore, it provides a readjustment of traditional concepts and terminology with findings that the role of ro-ro port terminals should be considered as decoupling points, poles and postponement platforms. Case studies examine relevant Western European ro-ro port terminals for cars and respective links to assembly/factories of vehicles localized in the hinterland and concludes that ro-ro port terminals reduce logistical friction and impedance, as well as promote space/time compression.

The Greying Church: The Impact of Life Expectancy on Religiosity

Many churches are concerned about older and dwindling congregations. We develop a theoretical framework to explain not only the downward trend in church attendance, but also the increase in the proportion of older people in the congregations. Religiosity depends positively on the expected social and spiritual benefits attached to religious adherence, as well as the probability of entering heaven in the afterlife. While otherworldly compensation in terms of salvation and spiritual benefits motivates religiosity, the costs of formal religion in terms of time allocated to communal activities and foregone income work in the opposite direction. We show that higher life expectancy discounts expected benefits in the afterlife and is hence likely to lead to postponement of religiosity. For this reason, religious organizations should be prepared to attract older members to their congregations, while emphasizing contemporaneous religious benefits to increase overall church attendance.

The post-communist fertility puzzle

Fertility has unanimously declined across the entire post-communist region. This study explores the variation in fertility trends over time among these countries and assesses to what degree three explanations are applicable: second demographic transition (SDT), postponement transition (PPT) or reaction to the economic crisis. Moreover, on the basis of SDT and PPT theoretical tenets, as well as descriptive evidence, the economic context is hypothesized to be linked to two processes of fertility decline conversely. The results show that no one theoretical explanation is sufficient to explain the complex fertility declines across the entire post-communist region from 1990 to 2003. In some countries, a great part of the decline in fertility occurred before significant postponement of childbearing began, which indicates that the dramatic decline was due to stopping behavior or postponement of higher order births. Postponement of first births, either through PPT or SDT processes, greatly contributed to fertility decline in a small number of countries. Pooled cross-sectional time-series analyses of age-specific birthrates confirm that these two distinct processes are present and show that the economic crisis explanation has explanatory power for declining birth rates. In contrast, logistic regressions show that the likelihood of postponing childbirth increases with improved economic conditions. These results confirm the importance of taking the economic context into account when discussing explanations for fertility decline. More specifically, the results indicate that the severity and duration of economic crisis, or absence thereof, influenced the extent and manner in which fertility declined.

Starting a Family at Your Parent's House: Multigenerational Households and Below Replacement Fertility in urban Bulgaria

In societies with strong multigenerational links, economic uncertainty results in choosing to stay with one child, sometimes in association with postponement of first births (i.e. Italy) and sometimes in early childbearing (i.e. Bulgaria). The interaction between intergenerational family practices in lowest-low fertility contexts is likely to play a role on differences timing to parenthood. In this paper, we focus on the phenomenon of women who have one child in their early twenties in Bulgaria and do not intend to have a second child. We argue that the key to this process is the persistence of extended multigenerational households in the Bulgarian context and their effect on young couples' fertility decision making. We use semi-structured interview data from the project Fertility Choices in Central and Eastern Europe and ethnographic fieldnotes. The interviews were collected from a sample of 22 couples resident in Sofia and representing different permutations of educational level, marital status and number of children (0 or 1). The four-year ethnographic fieldwork was conducted in both rural and urban Bulgaria between 1997 and 2009. Results suggest that as long as the economic situation remains dire, and young Bulgarians hopes for the future remain cynical, multigenerational households represent the accepted practice of entering into parenthood for young families.

Life expectancy with and without disability

Average life expectancy reached 78.8 years in Europe in 2002 (WHO 2003); most Europeans can, therefore, now anticipate living well past 75 years of age. Projections in industrialized nations suggest a continuing mortality decline in the next decades 1 while birth rates will probably continue to decline, resulting in further ageing of these nations. As those aged 80 years and over are the fastest expanding segment of the older population, concerns are growing about a potential dramatic increase in the number of disabled persons. The ageing of the population and the related increase in chronic disease burden have already had major impacts on most Western health-care systems, and will probably further affect these systems in the future as the baby-boom generation becomes older. For instance, in Switzerland, it is estimated that costs due to long-term care could more than double by 2030, from 6.5 to 15.3 billion SFr.2 Similar trends are expected in most European countries. As a consequence, postponement of the onset of disability, with a compression of functional dependency into a shorter period towards the end of life, is becoming a major goal. To successfully achieve this goal and improve the control of growing health and social care expenditures, various strategies of health promotion and disease prevention are developed and tested. Although several of these experiences had some effects on functional decline and institutional placement, they have not been shown to be cost-effective. Additional strategies are, therefore, needed to prevent or delay the onset of disability in older persons, reduce functional impairment, and face the challenge of an increasing disabled elderly population.

The reciprocal interaction between sleep and type 2 diabetes mellitus: facts and perspectives

Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a systemic disease characterized by intolerance to glucose and peripheral resistance to insulin. This endocrine disease affects fundamental mechanisms of the central nervous system and jeopardizes the balance of vital functions such as the cardiovascular and circadian rhythm. The increased prevalence of metabolic disorders in our society is aggravated by endemic voluntary postponement of bedtime and by the current sedentary lifestyle, leading to epidemic proportions of obese people. Diabetes and chronic loss of sleep share the fact that both affect millions and one is detrimental to the other. Indeed, sleep deficits have marked modulatory effects on glucose metabolism and insulin sensitivity and foster metabolic syndrome that culminates in sleep disorders like restless syndrome and sleep apnea, which in turn lead to poor sleep quality. We examine the hypothesis that these two worldwide emerging disorders are due to two interlinked cycles. In our paradigm, we establish an intimate relationship between diabetes and sleep disturbances and postulate possible mechanisms that provide support for this conjecture. In addition, we propose some perspectives about the development of the reciprocal interaction between predictor components of metabolic syndrome and sleep disturbances that lead to poor sleep quality. The ability to predict the development and identify or associate a given mode of sleep disturbance to diabetes would be a valuable asset in the assessment of both. Furthermore, major advances in care coupled with healthy lifestyles can ensure a higher quality of life for people with diabetes.