What can Arab countries learn from the post-communist transition? MEDPRO Commentary, 31 May 2012

More than a year has passed since the start of the political uprising against the authoritarian regimes in the Arab world. But, as demonstrated by the ongoing unrest in Syria, the process is far from over. Meanwhile, nations that have already rid themselves of their authoritarian rulers (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen), must decide where to go now and how to manage their political and economic transitions. To a lesser extent, a similar challenge is being faced by those constitutional monarchies (such as Morocco or Jordan) that accelerated reforms in order to avoid political destabilisation.   Many politicians and experts, especially those from Central and Eastern Europe, suggest that their Arab colleagues should learn from the post‐communist transition of the early 1990s. However, while learning from others’ experience is always a useful exercise, the geopolitical and socio‐economic context of the Arab revolution appears to be different, in many respects, from that of former Soviet bloc countries more than twenty years ago.

Inequality, fiscal capacity and the political regime: lessons from the post-communist transition

Using panel data for twenty-seven post-communist economies between 1987-2003, we examine the nexus of relationships between inequality, fiscal capacity (defined as the ability to raise taxes efficiently) and the political regime. Investigating the impact of political reform we find that full political freedom is associated with lower levels of income inequality. Under more oligarchic (authoritarian) regimes, the level of inequality is conditioned by the state’s fiscal capacity. Specifically, oligarchic regimes with more developed fiscal systems are able to defend the prevailing vested interests at a lower cost in terms of social injustice. This empirical finding is consistent with the model developed by Acemoglu (2006). We also find that transition countries undertaking early macroeconomic stabilisation now enjoy lower levels of inequality; we confirm that education fosters equality and the suggestion of Commander et al (1999) that larger countries are prone to higher levels of inequality.

Inequality, democracy and taxation:lessons from the post-Communist transition

Using data for the period 1989 – 2002, we examine the determinants of income inequality in post-communist economies. We find a strong positive association between equality and tax collection but note that this relationship is significantly stronger under authoritarian regimes than under democracies. We also discover that countries introducing sustainable democratic institutions early are characterised by lower inequality. We also confirm that education fosters equality and find that larger countries are prone to higher levels of inequality.

De-industrialisation and the post-communist transition:Rowthorn and Wells' model revisited

In this paper we present a simple three-sector model explaining the structural change in employment, which is a modified version of Rowthorn-Wells (1987). We supplement the theoretical analysis with simple econometric tests, which illustrate how the modified Rowthorn-Wells model can be used to (i) motivate empirical estimates of the link between the level of development and structures of employment, (ii) illustrate structural distortions under the command economies, and the structural adjustment that happened during the post-Communist transition. We demonstrate that in the case of these economies, the transition process leads to an adjustment to the employment structures predicted by the model.

Deindustrialisation:lessons from the structural outcomes of post-Communist transition

Theoretical and empirical studies show that deindustrialisation, broadly observed in developed countries, is an inherent part of the economic development pattern. However, post-communist countries, while being only middle-income economies, have also experienced deindustrialisation. Building on the model developed by Rowthorn and Wells (1987) we explain this phenomenon and show that there is a strong negative relationship between the magnitude of deindustrialisation and the efficiency and consistency of market reforms. We also demonstrate that reforms of the agricultural sector play a significant role in placing a transition country on a development path that guarantees convergence to EU employment structures.

Deindustrialisation and structural change during the post-Communist transition

The aim of this paper is to model the evolution of employment structure in post-communist economies in the broader context of deindustrialisation. The paper builds on the model of structural change developed by Rowthorn and Wells (1987). We show that the starting point of high industry sector share in total employment and its direct fall when productivity of sectors changes in favour of services can be explained in terms of this framework. Moreover, the model can also describe the phenomenon of a further expansion of the agriculture, observed in countries classified as "less consistent" in the reforms implementation. Hence, we distinguish two development paths, the efficient one, called "horizontal", and the inefficient one called "vertical". We illustrate it with empirical data, using alternative measures of structural change and patterns of structural evolutions during transition. Finally, we discuss the link between the EBRD indicators of reforms and structural change. We show that the "quality" of reforms, not the initial GDP level determines a country's development path.

The post-communist fertility puzzle

Fertility has unanimously declined across the entire post-communist region. This study explores the variation in fertility trends over time among these countries and assesses to what degree three explanations are applicable: second demographic transition (SDT), postponement transition (PPT) or reaction to the economic crisis. Moreover, on the basis of SDT and PPT theoretical tenets, as well as descriptive evidence, the economic context is hypothesized to be linked to two processes of fertility decline conversely. The results show that no one theoretical explanation is sufficient to explain the complex fertility declines across the entire post-communist region from 1990 to 2003. In some countries, a great part of the decline in fertility occurred before significant postponement of childbearing began, which indicates that the dramatic decline was due to stopping behavior or postponement of higher order births. Postponement of first births, either through PPT or SDT processes, greatly contributed to fertility decline in a small number of countries. Pooled cross-sectional time-series analyses of age-specific birthrates confirm that these two distinct processes are present and show that the economic crisis explanation has explanatory power for declining birth rates. In contrast, logistic regressions show that the likelihood of postponing childbirth increases with improved economic conditions. These results confirm the importance of taking the economic context into account when discussing explanations for fertility decline. More specifically, the results indicate that the severity and duration of economic crisis, or absence thereof, influenced the extent and manner in which fertility declined.

The role of European Union integration in post-communist democratization in Bulgaria and Macedonia

Cette recherche porte sur la dimension interprétative de l'intégration européenne et sur son rôle dans la démocratisation au sein des pays postcommunistes. Je focalise mon attention sur la signification pour les gens desdits pays que revêtent la participation politique, la compétence politique, et l’action collective. Cette signification prend forme selon des circonstances spécifiques, agencées par les relations de pouvoir asymétriques avec l’Union européenne (UE). J’examine la littérature sur le rôle de l'intégration européenne dans la démocratisation des pays postcommunistes et je distingue deux paradigmes théoriques principaux : un premier qui met l'accent sur le processus institutionnel, l’autre sur le processus instrumental stratégique. Au sein de ces deux approches, je présente différents auteurs qui voient l'UE soit comme un facteur pro-démocratique, soit comme un facteur antidémocratique dans le contexte postcommuniste de transition politique. Cette recherche ne suit pas théoriquement et méthodologiquement les études contenues dans la revue de la littérature. Plutôt, elle s’appuie sur un modèle théorique inspiré des recherches de McFalls sur la réunification culturelle allemande après 1989. Ce modèle, sans négliger les approches institutionnelles et stratégiques, met l’accent sur d'autres écoles théoriques, interprétatives et constructivistes. Mes conclusions se basent sur les résultats de séjours d'étude dans deux pays postcommunistes : la Bulgarie, membre de l'UE depuis 2007, et la Macédoine, pays-candidat. J’ai recours à des méthodes qualitatives et à des techniques ethnographiques qui triangulent des résultats puisés à des sources multiples et variées pour exposer des trajectoires dynamiques de changement culturel influencées par l'intégration européenne. Les conclusions montrent sous quelles conditions les idéaux-types de changement politique conventionnels, soit institutionnel ou stratégique, représentent des modèles utiles. Je présente aussi leurs limitations. Ma conclusion principale est que l'intégration européenne représente un phénomène complexe dans le monde des significations. C’est un facteur qui est simultanément un amplificateur et un inhibiteur de la culture politique démocratique. Les gens créent des sous-cultures différentes où des interprétations multiples du processus d'intégration européenne mènent à des effets dissemblables sur la participation politique, la compétence et l’action collective. La conversation discursive entre les gens qui composent de telles sous-cultures distinctes peut produire des effets divergents au niveau national. Cette recherche n’est pas une analyse de l’UE comme mécanisme institutionnel ; elle ne pose ainsi pas l’UE comme une institution qui détermine directement le processus de démocratisation postcommuniste. Plutôt, elle s’intéresse au processus d’intégration européenne en tant qu’interaction qui affecte la culture politique au sein des pays postcommunistes, et à la manière dont cette dernière peut agir sur le processus de démocratisation. Mon point d’intérêt central n’est donc pas l’européanisation ou le processus de devenir « comme l’Europe », à moins que l’européanisation ne devienne une composante de la culture politique avec des conséquences sur le comportement politique des acteurs.

Entrepreneurship and cities: evidence from the post-communist world

While attributing urban success to more abundant supply of entrepreneurship, more recent studies on entrepreneurship have shifted their focus to examining cross-city variation in entrepreneurial activity. Despite a growing number of spatial-oriented studies of entrepreneurship worldwide to our best knowledge no empirical evidence exists on the determinants of cross-city variation in entrepreneurship in the context of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) states. Estrin and Mickiewicz (2010) show that transition economies generally exhibit lower rates of entrepreneurship than observed in most developed and developing market economies. This difference is even more pronounced for the FSU compared to Central and Eastern Europe. This paper investigates variation in entrepreneurial activity across FSU cities, attempting to bridge the city-level gap in spatial-oriented empirical research.

The Weakness of Post-Communist Civil Society Reassessed. CES Papers - Open Forum #11, 2012

During the last two decades, scholars from a variety of disciplines have argued that civil society is structurally deficient in post-communist countries. Yet why have the seemingly strong, active and mobilized civic movements of the transition period become so weak after democracy was established? And why have there been diverging political trajectories across the post-communist space if civil society structures were universally weak? This paper uses a wide range of data from various available sources to show that civil societies in Central and Eastern European countries are not as feeble as is commonly assumed. Some post-communist countries possess vigorous public spheres, and active civil society organizations strongly connected to transnational civic networks able to shape domestic policies. Following the calls by Anheier (2004) and Bernhard and Karakoç (2007) we adopt a multidimensional approach to the measurement of civil society. In a series of cross-section timeseries models, we show that our broader measures of civic and social institutions are able to predict the diverging transition paths among post-communist regimes, and in particular the growing gap between democratic East Central Europe and the increasingly authoritarian post-Soviet space.

Did mass privatisation really increase post-communist male mortality?

A recent article in the Lancet, by David Stuckler, Larry King and Martin McKee, investigated anew the fluctuations in adult male mortality rates that have come to characterise the so-called post-communist mortality crisis. Adopting a cross-country, time-series perspective the authors examined how the economic policy strategies of the 1990s impacted upon observed fluctuations in mortality. They conclude that the adoption of a strategy of rapid (mass) privatisation contributed to the adverse mortality trends. We subject that finding to closer scrutiny using the same data from which the Stuckler et al claim stems. We find that their claim that mass privatisation adversely affected male mortality trends in the post-Communist world does not stand up to closer examination. It is not supported empirically and is at odds with what we know about both transition in the post-communist world and about health trends over time in this region.

On realizing the principles of Gaudium et spes in a post-communist country: Searching for christian entrepreneurs and roots of individuals in Hungary at the time of globalization

Due to the communist regime in Hungary the values and principles of the Second Vatican Counsil could hardly achieve their goal in the region and the situation is almost the same even today. This paper examines two levels of society where the thoughts of Gaudium et spes might have appeared: we have explored that there are Christian companies existing about 15 years since the political transition in 1990 and we made a research among individuals in rural environment, how could they preserve their human wholeness described in GS, in other words, how could they keep their social, cultural, natural, religiuos and local roots amongst the consumer society that has been developped in Hungary at the time of capitalism. Regarding the Christian companies our research could produce a positive result: we have explored that although the Christian companies survayed hardly know the Church’s social doctrine, they live and operate according to it. At the same time in the realm of individuals we cannot tell good news of this kind. Most of the persons interviewed have already lost or are near to loose their roots, that is their human wholeness. Our final conclusion is that our hope for preserving even strenghtening the values of GS in the Hungarian society is in the communities, be it work communities, as John Paul II. mentioned in his encyclical Sollicitudo rei Socialis. The paper presents the details and conclusions of our researches.