Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: <2°C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant, i.e., in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted), 2–3°C, and >3°C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50°N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming >3°C than for <2°C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of ≈1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century, but for >3°C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant.

Organizational culture, organizational climate, and collaborative capacity for planning

The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship of organizational culture and organizational climate on participant perceptions of collaborative capacity for planning, within the context of the Florida School Readiness Coalitions (FSRCs). Three hypotheses were proposed for study: First, that organizational culture would be correlated to organizational climate; second, that organizational culture would be correlated to collaborative capacity for planning; and the third that organizational climate would be correlated to collaborative capacity for planning. ^ A cross-sectional survey research design was used to obtain data from participants in 25 Florida School Readiness Coalitions. Pearson product-moment correlations were used to examine the association between the dependent variable, collaborative capacity for planning, and the independent variables, organizational culture and climate. Bivariate analyses revealed a significant level of association for five culture indicators to collaborative capacity for planning: motivation, interpersonal, service, supportive and individualistic indicators, and four climate indicators: cooperation, job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and role clarity. Findings suggest (a) a constructive culture and positive climate were present within the FSRCs during the period of study and (b) participants perceived that the collaborative capacity for planning existed. Hierarchical multiple regression, controlling for effects of participant demographics, were used to examine the degree to which organizational culture and climate predict collaborative capacity. The culture indicators, supportive and individualistic, and the climate indicator job satisfaction accounted for 46% of the variance in collaborative capacity for planning. No other indicators of the independent variables demonstrated significance. The findings suggests that (a) culture and climate should be studied together, (b) culture and climate are two constructs that may provide knowledge about the way community groups work together, and (c) the collaborative capacity of groups planning services such as the FSRCs may benefit through consideration of how culture and climate affect service planners' relationships, communication, and ability to achieve a mission or goal. Culture and climate may offer social workers new information about internal factors affecting the collaborative process. Further investigation of these constructs with other types of groups is warranted. ^

Woodturning for older learners : a real 'turn on'

The research reported in this study concerns older adults from Australia who voluntarily chose to learn the craft of woodturning. Semi-structured interviews and a survey questionnaire were distributed to members of a woodturning club to explore their motivations and the processes by which they learned how to woodturn. The findings indicated that participants’ motivation could be construed as both intrinsic and extrinsic. They used seven approaches to learning – structured courses, instruction from convenors, modelling/watching/demonstrations, guided practice and monitoring by convenors, trial and error with practice, advice and help from peers and reading. Finally, the positive climate of the organisation was found to be particularly important to the older learners.

Examining the influence of family support on diabetes education behavioural outcomes

The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of family support on diabetes education behavioural outcomes, specifically in relation to diet, exercise, and blood glucose monitoring in adult individuals with Type 2 diabetes. Fifty-three individuals attending diabetes education for the first time were followed approximately 1 month. The findings for the influence of family support were mixed. Family attending diabetes class with participants had a positive influence with respect to diet. This is consistent with Carl Rogers (1969) who espouses setting a positive climate for learning and that learning new attitudes or information comes when external barriers are at a minimum. However family attending class with participants had no influence with respect to exercise or blood glucose monitoring. The family support action of encouraging with respect to diet overall did not influence healthy eating behaviours except for decreased skipped meals and scheduled snacks. In fact, in the areas of family willing to make healthy choices along with participant, the less the family was involved in encouraging, the better the participant did. Exercise on the other hand was influenced positively by family encouragement. This is consistent with Bandura's theory that enhancement of self-confidence and self-efficacy can lead to desired behaviour changes. Family encouragement however did not appear to influence blood glucose monitoring behaviours. This study has implications for practice in that diabetes education programs can encourage family to attend classes or get involved in encouraging the person with diabetes, so that it may help to increase healthy eating behaviours and exercise. As time is necessary to implement changes in behaviour, future research can look at the influence of family support over a 6-month, I-year, or greater period.

Étude descriptive des perceptions de soutien, d’habilitation et de reconnaissance favorisant la mobilisation organisationnelle au Ministère de l’éducation nationale et de l’alphabétisation du Burkina Faso

Cette thèse de doctorat se situe dans le contexte des préoccupations des autorités nationales et des organisations internationales relatives à l’efficacité des organisations publiques dans les pays en développement, dans le cadre des Objectifs du Millénaire pour le développement (OMD) et du programme Éducation pour tous (ÉPT). L’argument du manque de ressources est de plus en plus remis en cause par le constat que certaines organisations disposant de ressources moindres que d’autres de même nature, obtiennent de meilleurs résultats (Barney, 1991; Durand, 1996; Isckia, 2008). Autrement dit, la quantité de ressources n’explique pas tout; il faut considérer d’autres éléments, dont la mobilisation organisationnelle, c’est-à-dire le mouvement obtenu d’une masse critique d’employés qui adoptent des actions positives dans le sens de l’atteinte des objectifs de leur organisation. Cette mobilisation suppose un climat positif auquel contribue la présence de certains états psychologiques ressentis par les employés, notamment les perceptions de soutien et de reconnaissance de la part de l’organisation de même qu’un sentiment d’habilitation psychologique (Tremblay et Simard, 2005). Ces perceptions et ce sentiment constituent les points focaux de la recherche que nous avons menée au sein du Ministère de l’éducation nationale et de l’alphabétisation (MÉNA) du Burkina Faso. L’objectif principal de notre recherche est de décrire ces trois états psychologiques. Le soutien organisationnel perçu (SOP), l’habilitation psychologique (HP) et la reconnaissance perçue ont été explorés à partir des travaux de Eisenberger et al. (1986), de Spreitzer (1995) et de Brun et Dugas (2005) respectivement. Nous avons délibérément choisi la perspective des employés plutôt que celle des pratiques de gestion observées ou déclarées de leurs supérieurs et avons entrepris de connaître leurs perceptions. Ces dernières méritent que l’on s’en préoccupe car aucune politique, mesure ou pratique visant à instaurer un climat organisationnel mobilisant ne peut être efficace si elle n’est pas perçue comme telle par les employés. Utilisant une méthodologie mixte, nous avons recueilli auprès de cadres et de directions d’école, des données sur les trois états psychologiques retenus, à l’aide d’un questionnaire comportant 37 énoncés (65 répondants); d’entrevues individuelles visant à enrichir, compléter, expliciter ou illustrer les informations obtenues par le questionnaire (18 participants); et de deux groupes de discussion autour des résultats de l’analyse préliminaire des réponses au questionnaire (7 participants). Au total, les données ont été recueillies auprès de 73 personnes, certaines d’entre elles ayant à la fois répondu au questionnaire et participé à une entrevue individuelle. Les données ont été traitées par état psychologique à l’aide des logiciels SPSS Statistics 20 (pour les questionnaires) et QDA Miner 4.0.11 (pour les entretiens individuels). Pour chaque énoncé, chaque variable créée et chacune des caractéristiques (fonction, genre et milieu de travail), nous avons d’abord obtenu des mesures de tendances centrales; nous avons poursuivi en ajoutant un second niveau de traitement en combinant les caractéristiques, par exemple : la fonction (cadre ou direction d’école) et le genre (femme ou homme). Nous avons ensuite procédé au codage des verbatims des entretiens en vue d’en extraire des éléments qui corroborent, précisent ou nuancent les résultats de l’analyse des données obtenues par le questionnaire pour chaque état psychologique. L’exploitation des données d’entretiens visait également à identifier des éléments portant sur le thème de la mobilisation au MÉNA. Les résultats des analyses des données issues des questionnaires indiquent globalement que le soutien organisationnel est perçu de façon négative au sein du MÉNA, seule la valorisation du travail réalisé recueillant un sentiment un peu moins négatif. Les répondants se perçoivent habilités psychologiquement; des quatre composantes de l’habilitation psychologique, c’est l’autonomie qui recueille la perception la plus négative. En ce qui concerne la reconnaissance, on observe une perception positive des éléments reliés à la communication et négative lorsqu’il s’agit de l’appréciation du système d’attribution des récompenses. En complément à ces résultats obtenus de l’analyse des données issues du questionnaire, les entretiens ont permis de mettre en lumière le fait que des pratiques efficaces de gestion (par exemple la rapidité des réponses aux demandes, l’application des normes de ponctualité et d’assiduité, la réception régulière du salaire) sont considérées comme des marques de soutien organisationnel. Ces entretiens ont également permis de découvrir un fort potentiel d’implication personnelle et professionnelle des participants rencontrés qui affichaient une disposition favorable à l’augmentation de leur contribution tout en souhaitant une plus grande reconnaissance de leur potentiel. La prise en compte de la fonction, du genre et du milieu de travail a permis de raffiner les analyses. À titre d’exemple: le soutien organisationnel est perçu plus positivement en milieu urbain qu’en milieu rural; les cadres perçoivent positivement la valorisation que le ministère accorde à leur contribution; alors que les directrices d’école ont une appréciation négative de cette valorisation. Le sentiment de compétence est éprouvé de façon plus positive chez les cadres alors que le sentiment d’autonomie est plus positif chez les directions d’école. En milieu urbain, la transmission de l’information, les rencontres avec les supérieurs et les témoignages d’appréciation sont plus présents qu’en milieu rural. Dans cette recherche, qui s’est déroulée dans un contexte subsaharien, nous avons affiché un parti pris pour une approche universaliste plutôt que culturaliste. Tout en reconnaissant que les traditions et la culture font partie de l’environnement organisationnel, nous pensons qu’elles ne sont pas les principaux facteurs explicatifs des comportements des employés dans une organisation. Les propos tenus par certains des participants que nous avons rencontrés renforcent notre conviction que les pratiques de gestion généralement perçues positivement par les employés le sont également dans ce contexte.

A reorganização do espaço da sala de educação infantil: uma experiência concreta à luz da teoria histórico-cultural

Pós-graduação em Educação - FFC

The relationship between staff perceptions of principal leadership and school performance

The climate of a school can be defined as the set of internal characteristics that distinguishes one school from another and influences the behavior of its members (Hoy & Hannum, 1997). Schools with a positive climate have been shown to positively impact students (Hoy, 1972). A principal’s leadership style influences the climate that, in turn, impacts student performance. ^ In this work, the researcher investigated Miami-Dade County Public Schools in order to determine if there was a relationship between instructional staff members’ perceptions of their school’s principals, a derivative of the district’s school climate studies, and their schools’ grades. ^ Eight School Climate Survey items were inter-correlated. The smallest intercorrelation was .83, which is still a large intercorrelation, and the largest intercorrelation was .96. Pearson’s correlation analysis (Healey, 2004) was run to determine the relationship between schools’ earned points and averaged survey responses. Survey items 8, 9, 12 and 13 had weak (less than .30) positive correlations to schools’ earned points. Survey items 7, 10, 11 and 14 had moderate (above .30) positive correlations to schools’ earned points. ^ The researcher created a composite variable (Pallant, 2007) from all the School Climate Survey responses. This composite variable, titled Principal Leadership Score, allowed the researcher to determine that approximately 9% of the variance in the points earned by schools in 2009 can be accounted for by how teachers in this study perceived the leadership of their principals. ^ This study’s findings of a moderate positive correlation between teachers’ perceptions of principal leadership and school performance supports earlier research linking school climate and school performance. Due to the fact that the leadership of the principal affects, either positively or negatively, the learning and working environment of students and teachers, it is recommended that principals use the eight School Climate Survey items examined within this study as guides (Pepper & Thomas, 2002). Through focusing on these survey items, principals may be propelled to self-identify their leadership strengths as well as leadership weaknesses.^

Clima psicológico e desempenho organizacional nas secções de uma autarquia local

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Psicologia Aplicada para a obtenção do grau de Mestre na especificidade de Psicologia Social e das Organizações

Home and group-based implementation of the "Growing Up Happily in the Family" program in at-risk psychosocial contexts

"Growing Up Happily in the Family" is a program to prevent child maltreatment targeted at parents of children aged 0-5 years old in at-risk psychosocial contexts. The program is delivered via either a group-based or a home-visit format. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of various implementation components in the home and group versions on changes in parental attitudes about child development and education. At-risk and non at-risk parents participated in the group-based (196 participants in 26 groups) and home-visit (95 participants) versions of the program delivered through local social services. We analyzed program adherence, adaptations, participant responsiveness, quality of delivery, and implementation barriers as predictors of changes in parental attitudes. The results showed that greater program adherence, better quality of delivery and participant responsiveness, and positive climate predicted changes in parental attitudes in both formats. Therefore, it is important to take into account the quality of the implementation process when testing the effectiveness of early group-based and home-visit interventions in at-risk families.

Taboo Texts and Troubling Silences: How Textual Choices Coconstruct a Positive School Climate for Same-Sex- Attracted Students

This paper offers insights into the relationship between curriculum decision making, positive school climate, and academic achievement for same-sex attracted (SSA) students. The authors use critical discourse analysis to present a ‘conversation’ between six same-sex attracted young people, aged 14-19, and three pop-culture texts currently popular with both teachers and school-aged peers: The Hunger Games, Tomorrow When the War Began, and Neighbours. Analysis starts from the perspective that schools are empowered agents in the production of students’ sexualised identities and seeks to understand how textual choices function as active discourse in that production. Through this analysis, an argument is made for expanding notions of what it means to ‘attend to’ gender and sexuality through textual choice and critical pedagogy.

Peer Motivational Climate and its Relationship with Positive and Negative Affect in Intramural Sports

The study of peers as an influence on sport participation has received minimal exploration. The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to determine how peer created motivational climates (task-involved and ego-involved) impact positive and negative affective states of intramural sport participants post-participation. Three hundred and fifteen intramural sport participants (N=315) at a Canadian university completed a questionnaire after participating in their intramural sport. Hierarchical regression analyses and MANCOVAs were used to examine the effects of peer motivational climates on positive and negative affect. Results revealed that task-involved peer climates are more conducive of positive affective states post-participation whereas ego-involved climates result in lesser positive affective states and more negative affective states. Teams that promote improvement and effort instead of intra-team competition and conflict will have more positive recreational sport experiences. Future research should explore other psychological outcomes that can result from peer created motivational climates in recreational sport team settings.

Does positive team mood mediate the relationship between team climate and team performance?

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