Social Influences of Error Monitoring

Adolescence is characterized by dramatic hormonal, physical, and psychological changes, and is a period of risk for affective and anxiety disorders. Pubertal development during adolescence plays a major role in the emergence of these disorders, particularly among girls. Thus, it is critical to identify early biomarkers of risk. One potential biomarker, the error-related negativity (ERN), is an event-related potential following an erroneous response. Individuals with an anxiety disorder demonstrate a greater ERN than healthy comparisons, an association which is stronger in adolescence, suggesting that pubertal development may play a role in the ERN as a predictor of anxiety. One form of anxiety often observed in adolescence, particularly among girls, is social anxiety, which is defined as anxiety elicited by social-evaluative contexts. In adults, enhancements of the ERN in social-evaluative contexts is positively related to social anxiety symptoms, suggesting that the ERN in social contexts may serve as a biomarker for social anxiety. This dissertation examined the ERN in and its relation with puberty and social anxiety among 76 adolescent girls. Adolescent girls completed a flanker task in two different

A Bayesian decision approach for sample size determination in phase II trials

Stallard (1998, Biometrics 54, 279-294) recently used Bayesian decision theory for sample-size determination in phase II trials. His design maximizes the expected financial gains in the development of a new treatment. However, it results in a very high probability (0.65) of recommending an ineffective treatment for phase III testing. On the other hand, the expected gain using his design is more than 10 times that of a design that tightly controls the false positive error (Thall and Simon, 1994, Biometrics 50, 337-349). Stallard's design maximizes the expected gain per phase II trial, but it does not maximize the rate of gain or total gain for a fixed length of time because the rate of gain depends on the proportion: of treatments forwarding to the phase III study. We suggest maximizing the rate of gain, and the resulting optimal one-stage design becomes twice as efficient as Stallard's one-stage design. Furthermore, the new design has a probability of only 0.12 of passing an ineffective treatment to phase III study.

EVALUATION OF THE QUANTITATIVE ACCURACY OF A COMMERCIALLY-AVAILABLE POSITRON EMISSION MAMMOGRAPHY SCANNER

Objective: The PEM Flex Solo II (Naviscan, Inc., San Diego, CA) is currently the only commercially-available positron emission mammography (PEM) scanner. This scanner does not apply corrections for count rate effects, attenuation or scatter during image reconstruction, potentially affecting the quantitative accuracy of images. This work measures the overall quantitative accuracy of the PEM Flex system, and determines the contributions of error due to count rate effects, attenuation and scatter. Materials and Methods: Gelatin phantoms were designed to simulate breasts of different sizes (4 – 12 cm thick) with varying uniform background activity concentration (0.007 – 0.5 μCi/cc), cysts and lesions (2:1, 5:1, 10:1 lesion-to-background ratios). The overall error was calculated from ROI measurements in the phantoms with a clinically relevant background activity concentration (0.065 μCi/cc). The error due to count rate effects was determined by comparing the overall error at multiple background activity concentrations to the error at 0.007 μCi/cc. A point source and cold gelatin phantoms were used to assess the errors due to attenuation and scatter. The maximum pixel values in gelatin and in air were compared to determine the effect of attenuation. Scatter was evaluated by comparing the sum of all pixel values in gelatin and in air. Results: The overall error in the background was found to be negative in phantoms of all thicknesses, with the exception of the 4-cm thick phantoms (0%±7%), and it increased with thickness (-34%±6% for the 12-cm phantoms). All lesions exhibited large negative error (-22% for the 2:1 lesions in the 4-cm phantom) which increased with thickness and with lesion-to-background ratio (-85% for the 10:1 lesions in the 12-cm phantoms). The error due to count rate in phantoms with 0.065 μCi/cc background was negative (-23%±6% for 4-cm thickness) and decreased with thickness (-7%±7% for 12 cm). Attenuation was a substantial source of negative error and increased with thickness (-51%±10% to -77% ±4% in 4 to 12 cm phantoms, respectively). Scatter contributed a relatively constant amount of positive error (+23%±11%) for all thicknesses. Conclusion: Applying corrections for count rate, attenuation and scatter will be essential for the PEM Flex Solo II to be able to produce quantitatively accurate images.

Effects of special educator peer coaching on general educator effectiveness in inclusive classroom settings

This dissertation investigated the effects of a peer coaching relationship between a special education teacher and two general education teachers. More specifically, a two-tier multiple baseline design across subjects was used to evaluate the effects of peer coaching on the general education teachers' use of effective instructional practices (EIPs) and subsequent effects on the engagement rate and academic performance of students with and without disabilities. The peer coaching process included modeling, direct support, and feedback on the use of effective instructional practices including getting student attention, giving specific directions, asking specific questions with wait time, contingent positive reinforcement, positive error correction, precorrection, prompting, and proximity control. A 30-second partial interval recording procedure was used to observe the general education teachers' use of effective instructional practices and student engagement rates. Student participants' academic performance was measured using weekly quizzes. ^ Peer coaching resulted in an overall increase in the teachers' use of EIPs. One general education teacher had a 30% increase in average EIP use from 46% during the baseline phase to 76% during intervention. Student engagement for her two student participants with and without disabilities indicated an increase from 54% to 69% and from 47% to 65% respectively. Results for the second general education teacher indicated a 34% increase in average EIP use from 55% during the baseline to 89% during intervention. Student engagement for the two student participants with and without disabilities in her class increased from 48% to 83% and from 29% to 71% respectively. Student academic performance showed a small increase. In follow-up observations, the effects of peer coaching on teacher use of EIPs and student engagement and academic performance were maintained. ^ The results of this study suggest that using peer coaching to support general education teachers can be an effective method to improve the educational outcomes of students with and without disabilities in general education. Further research is needed to investigate the effects of peer coaching with other special and general educator partnerships and other student participants. ^

Maximum Margin Classifiers with Specified False Positive and False Negative Error Rates

This paper addresses the problem of maximum margin classification given the moments of class conditional densities and the false positive and false negative error rates. Using Chebyshev inequalities, the problem can be posed as a second order cone programming problem. The dual of the formulation leads to a geometric optimization problem, that of computing the distance between two ellipsoids, which is solved by an iterative algorithm. The formulation is extended to non-linear classifiers using kernel methods. The resultant classifiers are applied to the case of classification of unbalanced datasets with asymmetric costs for misclassification. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show the efficacy of the proposed method.

Optimizing the balance between false positive and false negative error probabilities of confirmatory methods for the detection of veterinary drug residues

GC-MS data on veterinary drug residues in bovine urine are used for controlling the illegal practice of fattening cattle. According to current detection criteria, peak patterns of preferably four ions should agree within 10 or 20% from a corresponding standard pattern. These criteria are rigid, rather arbitrary and do not match daily practice. A new model, based on multivariate modeling of log peak abundance ratios, provides a theoretical basis for the identification of analytes and optimizes the balance between the avoidance of false positives and false negatives. The performance of the model is demonstrated on data provided by five laboratories, each supplying GC-MS measurements on the detection of clenbuterol, dienestrol and 19 beta-nortestosterone in urine. The proposed model shows a better performance than confirmation by using the current criteria and provides a statistical basis for inspection criteria in terms of error probabilities.

Error and uncertainty of adult age estimation of the pubic symphysis in an Australian sub-population using computed tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of: (1) the error and uncertainty associated with the application of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation of the pubic symphysis to a contemporary Australian population; (2) the implications of sexual dimorphism and bilateral asymmetry of the pubic symphysis through preliminary geometric morphometric assessment; and (3) the value of three-dimensional (3D) autopsy data acquisition for creating forensic anthropological standards. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating that, in the absence of demographically sound skeletal collections, post-mortem autopsy data provides an exciting platform for the construction of large contemporary ‘virtual osteological libraries’ for which forensic anthropological research can be conducted on Australian individuals. More specifically, this study assesses the applicability and accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia, and using a geometric morphometric approach, provides an insight to the age-related degeneration of the pubic symphysis. Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (1990) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations1-4. Australian forensic anthropology is constrained by a paucity of population specific standards due to a lack of repositories of documented skeletons. Consequently, in Australian casework proceedings, standards constructed from predominately American reference samples are applied to establish a biological profile. In the global era of terrorism and natural disasters, more specific population standards are required to improve the efficiency of medico-legal death investigation in Queensland. The sample comprises multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) scans of the pubic symphysis (slice thickness: 0.5mm, overlap: 0.1mm) on 195 individuals of caucasian ethnicity aged 15-70 years. Volume rendering reconstruction of the symphyseal surface was conducted in Amira® (v.4.1) and quantitative analyses in Rapidform® XOS. The sample was divided into ten-year age sub-sets (eg. 15-24) with a final sub-set of 65-70 years. Error with respect to the method’s assigned means were analysed on the basis of bias (directionality of error), inaccuracy (magnitude of error) and percentage correct classification of left and right symphyseal surfaces. Morphometric variables including surface area, circumference, maximum height and width of the symphyseal surface and micro-architectural assessment of cortical and trabecular bone composition were quantified using novel automated engineering software capabilities. The results of this study demonstrated correct age classification utilizing the mean and standard deviations of each phase of the S-B method of 80.02% and 86.18% in Australian males and females, respectively. Application of the S-B method resulted in positive biases and mean inaccuracies of 7.24 (±6.56) years for individuals less than 55 years of age, compared to negative biases and mean inaccuracies of 5.89 (±3.90) years for individuals greater than 55 years of age. Statistically significant differences between chronological and S-B mean age were demonstrated in 83.33% and 50% of the six age subsets in males and females, respectively. Asymmetry of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon with 53.33% of the Queensland population exhibiting statistically significant (χ2 - p<0.01) differential phase classification of left and right surfaces of the same individual. Directionality was found in bilateral asymmetry, with the right symphyseal faces being slightly older on average and providing more accurate estimates using the S-B method5. Morphometric analysis verified these findings, with the left surface exhibiting significantly greater circumference and surface area than the right (p<0.05). Morphometric analysis demonstrated an increase in maximum height and width of the surface with age, with most significant changes (p<0.05) occurring between the 25-34 and 55-64 year age subsets. These differences may be attributed to hormonal components linked to menopause in females and a reduction in testosterone in males. Micro-architectural analysis demonstrated degradation of cortical composition with age, with differential bone resorption between the medial, ventral and dorsal surfaces of the pubic symphysis. This study recommends that the S-B method be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of unknown skeletal remains in Queensland. Age estimation will always be accompanied by error; therefore this study demonstrates the potential for quantitative morphometric modelling of age related changes of the pubic symphysis as a tool for methodological refinement, providing a rigor and robust assessment to remove the subjectivity associated with current pelvic aging methods.

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Two-year changes in refractive error and related biometric factors in an adult Chinese population

Importance: This article provides, to our knowledge, the first longitudinal population-based data on refractive error (RE) in Chinese persons.

Objective: To study cohort effects and changes associated with aging in REs among Chinese adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants: A 2-year, longitudinal population-based cohort study was conducted in southern China. Participants, identified using cluster random sampling, included residents of Yuexiu District, Guangzhou, China, aged 35 years or older who had undergone no previous eye surgery.

Methods: Participants underwent noncycloplegic automated refraction and keratometry in December 2008 and December 2010; in a random 50% sample of the participants, anterior segment ocular coherence tomography measurement of lens thickness, as well as measurement of axial length and anterior chamber depth by partial coherence laser interferometry, were performed.

Main Outcomes and Measures: Two-year change in spherical equivalent refraction (RE), lens thickness, axial length, and anterior chamber depth in the right eye.

Results: A total of 745 individuals underwent biometric testing in both 2008 and 2010 (2008 mean [SD] age, 52.2 [11.5] years; 53.7% women). Mean RE showed a 2-year hyperopic shift from −0.44 (2.21) to −0.31 (2.26) diopters (D) (difference, +0.13; 95% CI, 0.11 to 0.16). A consistent 2-year hyperopic shift of 0.09 to 0.22 D was observed among participants aged 35 to 64 years when stratifying by decade, suggesting that a substantial change in RE with aging may occur during this 30-year period. Cross-sectionally, RE increased only in the cohort younger than 50 years (0.11 D/y; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.16). In the cross-sectional data, axial length decreased at −0.06 mm/y (95% CI, −0.09 to −0.04), although the 2-year change in axial length was positive and thus could not explain the cross-sectional difference. These latter results suggest a cohort effect, with greater myopia developing among younger persons.

Conclusions and Relevance: This first Chinese population-based longitudinal study of RE provides evidence for both important longitudinal aging changes and cohort effects, most notably greater myopia prevalence among younger persons.

Autonomic prediction of error-related ERP components in perceptual and conceptual tasks in older and younger adults

In studies of cognitive processing, the allocation of attention has been consistently linked to subtle, phasic adjustments in autonomic control. Both autonomic control of heart rate and control of the allocation of attention are known to decline with age. It is not known, however, whether characteristic individual differences in autonomic control and the ability to control attention are closely linked. To test this, a measure of parasympathetic function, vagal tone (VT) was computed from cardiac recordings from older and younger adults taken before and during performance of two attentiondemanding tasks - the Eriksen visual flanker task and the source memory task. Both tasks elicited event-related potentials (ERPs) that accompany errors, i.e., error-related negativities (ERNs) and error positivities (Pe's). The ERN is a negative deflection in the ERP signal, time-locked to responses made on incorrect trials, likely generated in the anterior cingulate. It is followed immediately by the Pe, a broad, positive deflection which may reflect conscious awareness of having committed an error. Age-attenuation ofERN amplitude has previously been found in paradigms with simple stimulus-response mappings, such as the flanker task, but has rarely been examined in more complex, conceptual tasks. Until now, there have been no reports of its being investigated in a source monitoring task. Age-attenuation of the ERN component was observed in both tasks. Results also indicated that the ERNs generated in these two tasks were generally comparable for young adults. For older adults, however, the ERN from the source monitoring task was not only shallower, but incorporated more frontal processing, apparently reflecting task demands. The error positivities elicited by 3 the two tasks were not comparable, however, and age-attenuation of the Pe was seen only in the more perceptual flanker task. For younger adults, it was Pe scalp topography that seemed to reflect task demands, being maximal over central parietal areas in the flanker task, but over very frontal areas in the source monitoring task. With respect to vagal tone, in the flanker task, neither the number of errors nor ERP amplitudes were predicted by baseline or on-task vagal tone measures. However, in the more difficult source memory task, lower VT was marginally associated with greater numbers of source memory errors in the older group. Thus, for older adults, relatively low levels of parasympathetic control over cardiac response coincided with poorer source memory discrimination. In both groups, lower levels of baseline VT were associated with larger amplitude ERNs, and smaller amplitude Pe's. Thus, low VT was associated in a conceptual task with a greater "emergency response" to errors, and at the same time, reduced awareness of having made them. The efficiency of an individual's complex cognitive processing was therefore associated with the flexibility of parasympathetic control of heart rate, in response to a cognitively challenging task.

Developmental and individual differences in novelty and error detection in 10-year-old children and young adults /

Event-related potentials were recorded from 10-year-old children and young adults in order to examine the developmental dififerences in two frontal lobe functions: detection of novel stimuli during an auditory novelty oddball task, and error detection during a visual flanker task. All participants showed a parietally-maximal P3 in response to auditory stimuli. In children, novel stimuli generated higher P3 amplitudes at the frontal site compared with target stimuli, whereas target stimuli generated higher P3 amplitudes at the parietal site compared with novel stimuli. Adults, however, had higher P3 amplitude to novel tones compared with target tones at each site. Children also had greater P3 amplitude at more parietal sites than adults during the novelty oddball and flanker tasks. Furthermore, children and adults did not show a significant reduction in P3 amplitude from the first to second novel stimulus presentation. No age differences were found with respect to P3 latency to novel and target stimuli. These findings suggest that the detection of novel and target stimuli is mature in 10-year-olds. Error trials typically elicit a negative ERP deflection (the ERN) with a frontal-central scalp distribution that may reflect response monitoring. There is also evidence of a positive ERP peak (the Pe) with a posterior scalp distribution which may reflect subjective recognition of a response. Both children and adults showed an ERN and Pe maximal at frontal-central sites. Children committed more errors, had smaller ERN across sites, and had a larger Pe at the parietal site than adults. This suggests that response monitoring is still immature in 10-year-olds whereas recognition of and emotional responses to errors may be similar in children and adults.

Time Discretization of the SST-generalized Navier-Stokes Equations: Positive and Negative Results

In the theory of the Navier-Stokes equations, the proofs of some basic known results, like for example the uniqueness of solutions to the stationary Navier-Stokes equations under smallness assumptions on the data or the stability of certain time discretization schemes, actually only use a small range of properties and are therefore valid in a more general context. This observation leads us to introduce the concept of SST spaces, a generalization of the functional setting for the Navier-Stokes equations. It allows us to prove (by means of counterexamples) that several uniqueness and stability conjectures that are still open in the case of the Navier-Stokes equations have a negative answer in the larger class of SST spaces, thereby showing that proof strategies used for a number of classical results are not sufficient to affirmatively answer these open questions. More precisely, in the larger class of SST spaces, non-uniqueness phenomena can be observed for the implicit Euler scheme, for two nonlinear versions of the Crank-Nicolson scheme, for the fractional step theta scheme, and for the SST-generalized stationary Navier-Stokes equations. As far as stability is concerned, a linear version of the Euler scheme, a nonlinear version of the Crank-Nicolson scheme, and the fractional step theta scheme turn out to be non-stable in the class of SST spaces. The positive results established in this thesis include the generalization of classical uniqueness and stability results to SST spaces, the uniqueness of solutions (under smallness assumptions) to two nonlinear versions of the Euler scheme, two nonlinear versions of the Crank-Nicolson scheme, and the fractional step theta scheme for general SST spaces, the second order convergence of a version of the Crank-Nicolson scheme, and a new proof of the first order convergence of the implicit Euler scheme for the Navier-Stokes equations. For each convergence result, we provide conditions on the data that guarantee the existence of nonstationary solutions satisfying the regularity assumptions needed for the corresponding convergence theorem. In the case of the Crank-Nicolson scheme, this involves a compatibility condition at the corner of the space-time cylinder, which can be satisfied via a suitable prescription of the initial acceleration.

Multinational companies and productivity spillovers: is there a specification error?

Recent empirical works on the within-sector impact of inward investments on domestic firms’ productivity have found rather robust evidence of no (or even negative) effects. We suggest that, among other reasons, a specification error might explain some of these results. A more general specification, which includes the usual one as a special case, is proposed. Using data on Italian manufacturing firms in 1992–2000, we find positive externalities only once we allow for the more flexible specification.