Evaluating the effectiveness of common structures in property portfolio construction

A good portfolio structure enables an investor to diversify more effectively and understand systematic influences on their performance. However, in the property market, the choice of structure is affected by data constraints and convenience. Using individual return data, this study tests the hypothesis that some common structures in the UK do not explain a significant amount about property returns. It is found that, in the periods studied, not all the structures were effective and, for the annual returns, no structures were significant in all periods. The results suggest that the drivers represented by the structures take some time to be reflected in individual property returns. They also confirm the results of other studies in finding property type a much stronger factor in explaining returns than regions.

Real estate portfolio construction and estimation risk

The use of MPT in the construction real estate portfolios has two serious limitations when used in an ex-ante framework: (1) the intertemporal instability of the portfolio weights and (2) the sharp deterioration in performance of the optimal portfolios outside the sample period used to estimate asset mean returns. Both problems can be traced to wide fluctuations in sample means Jorion (1985). Thus the use of a procedure that ignores the estimation risk due to the uncertain in mean returns is likely to produce sub-optimal results in subsequent periods. This suggests that the consideration of the issue of estimation risk is crucial in the use of MPT in developing a successful real estate portfolio strategy. Therefore, following Eun & Resnick (1988), this study extends previous ex-ante based studies by evaluating optimal portfolio allocations in subsequent test periods by using methods that have been proposed to reduce the effect of measurement error on optimal portfolio allocations.

A comprehensive portfolio construction under stochastic environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. ^ A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: (a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, (b) implement large-scale optimizations, and (c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. ^ The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. ^ The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH). ^

A Comprehensive Portfolio Construction Under Stochastic Environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, b) implement large-scale optimizations, and c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH).

The Impact of New Capital Requirements on the Portfolio Decisions of Finnish Pension Institutions

This paper examines the potential impact of new capital requirements on asset allocations of Finnish pension institutions. We describe the new requirements and consider portfolio construction to minimize regulatory capital, given the investor’s preferred level of expected return. Results identify portfolio transactions that enhance expected return without increasing capital needs. Regulation calls for portfolio diversification and prudence in management, but this paper shows that market participants can exploit inconsistencies in regulation. Possible future consequences include capital outflows from the pension system and an unintended decrease in pre-funding of old-age pensions.

Essays on robust portfolio selection and pension finance

This thesis examines three different, but related problems in the broad area of portfolio management for long-term institutional investors, and focuses mainly on the case of pension funds. The first idea (Chapter 3) is the application of a novel numerical technique – robust optimization – to a real-world pension scheme (the Universities Superannuation Scheme, USS) for first time. The corresponding empirical results are supported by many robustness checks and several benchmarks such as the Bayes-Stein and Black-Litterman models that are also applied for first time in a pension ALM framework, the Sharpe and Tint model and the actual USS asset allocations. The second idea presented in Chapter 4 is the investigation of whether the selection of the portfolio construction strategy matters in the SRI industry, an issue of great importance for long term investors. This study applies a variety of optimal and naïve portfolio diversification techniques to the same SRI-screened universe, and gives some answers to the question of which portfolio strategies tend to create superior SRI portfolios. Finally, the third idea (Chapter 5) compares the performance of a real-world pension scheme (USS) before and after the recent major changes in the pension rules under different dynamic asset allocation strategies and the fixed-mix portfolio approach and quantifies the redistributive effects between various stakeholders. Although this study deals with a specific pension scheme, the methodology can be applied by other major pension schemes in countries such as the UK and USA that have changed their rules.

Contributo dos portfolios reflexivos no desenvolvimento profissional: um estudo de caso em contexto de formação complementar

Este estudo põe em evidência o valor formativo da reflexão pela escrita, estruturada em portfolios reflexivos, desenvolvidos durante a disciplina de Supervisão I, nas quatro turmas/cursos de formação complementar em Supervisão Pedagógica e Formação de Formadores, para o Exercício de Outras Funções, decorrida entre 1999-2004, na Escola Superior de Educação de Viseu, do Instituto Superior Politécnico de Viseu. Trata-se de uma investigação de índole qualitativa desenvolvida segundo a metodologia de estudo de caso, na vertente de estudo de casos múltiplos, dada a singularidade de que cada portfolio se reveste. A investigação foi perspectivada após a conclusão do referido curso com base na existência, ao tempo, de pouca investigação realizada no âmbito da utilização de portfolios na Formação Complementar de professores. As questões investigativas foram, por esse motivo, desenhadas a posteriori, o que podemos considerar uma limitação do estudo, ainda que os resultados obtidos confirmem as perspectivas desenvolvimentistas desta estratégia de formação, evidenciadas em investigações realizadas noutros contextos nacionais e internacionais. A adopção do portfolio reflexivo (Sá-Chaves, 2000) numa dupla dimensão – formativa e avaliativa – resultou de uma concepção de formação conducente ao desenvolvimento de professores reflexivos, capazes de exercer funções supervisivas alicerçadas na reflexão, no diálogo, na partilha e na intervenção. Pretendemos com a aplicação de portfolios reflexivos verificar até que ponto a construção de este tipo de narrativa autobiográfica podia contribuir para o desenvolvimento da profissionalidade docente de professores inseridos na carreira há já alguns/muitos anos, proporcionando-lhes a(s) ferramenta(s) reflexiva(s) necessária(s) a uma intervenção e/ou alteração de práticas mais adequadas às novas funções supervisivas que a legislação recente previa que viessem a exercer. Pudemos confirmar que a redacção do portfolio constituiu uma mais valia para os seus autores no que respeita ao seu desenvolvimento da sua profissionalidade, tendo-se verificado um crescimento evidente nas dimensões de conhecimento profissional, com especial incidência: no autoconhecimento; no conhecimento sobre estratégias reflexivas e supervisivas para o exercício de novas funções; no conhecimento de teorias práticas subjacentes às suas experiências supervisivas (passadas, presentes e futuras); no conhecimento sobre desenvolvimento curricular e sua flexibilização; no conhecimento sobre estratégias de avaliação alternativa e compreensiva; no conhecimento do Outro, no qual se incluem os alunos, os colegas de profissão e os restantes elementos da comunidade educativa; e no conhecimento sobre os contextos. Verificámos igualmente que a compreensão das competências supervisivas dos formandos também evoluiu. As reflexões vertidas neste estudo evidenciam que os formandos consciencializaram a necessidade de possuírem uma competência de intervenção fundamentada na reflexão, exercida sob uma perspectiva dialógica e humanista de supervisão e de adaptabilidade aos contextos profissionais. Acresce que alguns destes formandos manifestaram vontade e maior coragem para assumir essa intervenção, considerada imprescindível para que a escola evolua e se inove, como resposta à imprevisibilidade e à complexidade dos nossos tempos. Tornou-se igualmente evidente que os formandos desenvolveram as competências de integração da prática na teoria ou vice-versa e de autenticação das suas próprias teorias. Os professores são unânimes ao afirmar que a estratégia de portfolio contribuiu para o desenvolvimento da sua competência reflexiva e/ou de análise crítica, a qual, por sua vez, conduziu à auto-consciencialização da sua matriz identitária e à coragem para serem mais autênticos e interventivos/pró-activos. Terem sido capazes de ultrapassar as dificuldades e os receios colocados por uma estratégia que desconheciam, conferiu-lhes maior auto-estima e autonomia. Este aspecto está bem patente nas meta-análises realizadas por cada autor do portfolio, nas quais, aceitam a estratégia inicialmente combatida, reconhecendo-lhe valor formativo e a capacidade de revelação de conhecimento sobre si próprios. Pese embora o curto espaço de tempo em que a experiência de construção dos portfolios decorreu, tanto os formandos como nós consideramos que esta narrativa profissional autobiográfica é uma estratégia promotora de uma auto-supervisão contínua, que fornece e regista pistas de autodireccionamento profissional, sempre passíveis de avaliação e de redireccionamento. Com base nestas constatações consideramos que o portfolio reflexivo pode tornar-se no instrumento mais completo e diacrónico de auto-avaliação de professores, prevista no ECD, na medida em que permite retratar o desenvolvimento profissional e pessoal do seu autor e possibilita que este se reveja e redimensione a sua profissionalidade, sempre que acrescenta reflexões novas ou complementa anteriores, como resultado dos conselhos e/ou das discussões com o(s) Outro(s) e o próprio.

Choix de portefeuille de grande taille et mesures de risque pour preneurs de décision pessimistes

Cette thèse de doctorat consiste en trois chapitres qui traitent des sujets de choix de portefeuilles de grande taille, et de mesure de risque. Le premier chapitre traite du problème d’erreur d’estimation dans les portefeuilles de grande taille, et utilise le cadre d'analyse moyenne-variance. Le second chapitre explore l'importance du risque de devise pour les portefeuilles d'actifs domestiques, et étudie les liens entre la stabilité des poids de portefeuille de grande taille et le risque de devise. Pour finir, sous l'hypothèse que le preneur de décision est pessimiste, le troisième chapitre dérive la prime de risque, une mesure du pessimisme, et propose une méthodologie pour estimer les mesures dérivées. Le premier chapitre améliore le choix optimal de portefeuille dans le cadre du principe moyenne-variance de Markowitz (1952). Ceci est motivé par les résultats très décevants obtenus, lorsque la moyenne et la variance sont remplacées par leurs estimations empiriques. Ce problème est amplifié lorsque le nombre d’actifs est grand et que la matrice de covariance empirique est singulière ou presque singulière. Dans ce chapitre, nous examinons quatre techniques de régularisation pour stabiliser l’inverse de la matrice de covariance: le ridge, spectral cut-off, Landweber-Fridman et LARS Lasso. Ces méthodes font chacune intervenir un paramètre d’ajustement, qui doit être sélectionné. La contribution principale de cette partie, est de dériver une méthode basée uniquement sur les données pour sélectionner le paramètre de régularisation de manière optimale, i.e. pour minimiser la perte espérée d’utilité. Précisément, un critère de validation croisée qui prend une même forme pour les quatre méthodes de régularisation est dérivé. Les règles régularisées obtenues sont alors comparées à la règle utilisant directement les données et à la stratégie naïve 1/N, selon leur perte espérée d’utilité et leur ratio de Sharpe. Ces performances sont mesurée dans l’échantillon (in-sample) et hors-échantillon (out-of-sample) en considérant différentes tailles d’échantillon et nombre d’actifs. Des simulations et de l’illustration empirique menées, il ressort principalement que la régularisation de la matrice de covariance améliore de manière significative la règle de Markowitz basée sur les données, et donne de meilleurs résultats que le portefeuille naïf, surtout dans les cas le problème d’erreur d’estimation est très sévère. Dans le second chapitre, nous investiguons dans quelle mesure, les portefeuilles optimaux et stables d'actifs domestiques, peuvent réduire ou éliminer le risque de devise. Pour cela nous utilisons des rendements mensuelles de 48 industries américaines, au cours de la période 1976-2008. Pour résoudre les problèmes d'instabilité inhérents aux portefeuilles de grandes tailles, nous adoptons la méthode de régularisation spectral cut-off. Ceci aboutit à une famille de portefeuilles optimaux et stables, en permettant aux investisseurs de choisir différents pourcentages des composantes principales (ou dégrées de stabilité). Nos tests empiriques sont basés sur un modèle International d'évaluation d'actifs financiers (IAPM). Dans ce modèle, le risque de devise est décomposé en deux facteurs représentant les devises des pays industrialisés d'une part, et celles des pays émergents d'autres part. Nos résultats indiquent que le risque de devise est primé et varie à travers le temps pour les portefeuilles stables de risque minimum. De plus ces stratégies conduisent à une réduction significative de l'exposition au risque de change, tandis que la contribution de la prime risque de change reste en moyenne inchangée. Les poids de portefeuille optimaux sont une alternative aux poids de capitalisation boursière. Par conséquent ce chapitre complète la littérature selon laquelle la prime de risque est importante au niveau de l'industrie et au niveau national dans la plupart des pays. Dans le dernier chapitre, nous dérivons une mesure de la prime de risque pour des préférences dépendent du rang et proposons une mesure du degré de pessimisme, étant donné une fonction de distorsion. Les mesures introduites généralisent la mesure de prime de risque dérivée dans le cadre de la théorie de l'utilité espérée, qui est fréquemment violée aussi bien dans des situations expérimentales que dans des situations réelles. Dans la grande famille des préférences considérées, une attention particulière est accordée à la CVaR (valeur à risque conditionnelle). Cette dernière mesure de risque est de plus en plus utilisée pour la construction de portefeuilles et est préconisée pour compléter la VaR (valeur à risque) utilisée depuis 1996 par le comité de Bâle. De plus, nous fournissons le cadre statistique nécessaire pour faire de l’inférence sur les mesures proposées. Pour finir, les propriétés des estimateurs proposés sont évaluées à travers une étude Monte-Carlo, et une illustration empirique en utilisant les rendements journaliers du marché boursier américain sur de la période 2000-2011.

Another look at the relative importance of sectors and regions in determining property returns

This paper re-examines the relative importance of sector and regional effects in determining property returns. Using the largest property database currently available in the world, we decompose the returns on individual properties into a national effect, common to all properties, and a number of sector and regional factors. However, unlike previous studies, we categorise the individual property data into an ever-increasing number of property-types and regions, from a simple 3-by-3 classification, up to a 10 by 63 sector/region classification. In this way we can test the impact that a finer classification has on the sector and regional effects. We confirm the earlier findings of previous studies that sector-specific effects have a greater influence on property returns than regional effects. We also find that the impact of the sector effect is robust across different classifications of sectors and regions. Nonetheless, the more refined sector and regional partitions uncover some interesting sector and regional differences, which were obscured in previous studies. All of which has important implications for property portfolio construction and analysis.

Flight to quality? An investigation of changing price spreads in commercial real estate markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the crisis on the pricing of asset quality attributes. This paper uses sales transaction data to examine whether flight from risk phenomena took place in the US office market during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Design/methodology/approach – Hedonic regression procedures are used to test the hypothesis that the spread between the pricing of low-quality and high-quality characteristics increased during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Findings – The results of the hedonic regression models suggest that the price spread between Class A and other properties grew significantly during the downturn. Research limitations/implications – Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of an increased price spread following a market downturn between Class A and non-Class A offices. The evidence suggests that the relationships between the returns on Class A and non-Class A assets changed during the period of market stress or crisis. Practical implications – These findings have implications for real estate portfolio construction. If regime switches can be predicted and/or responded to rapidly, portfolios may be rebalanced. In crisis periods, portfolios might be reweighted towards Class A properties and in positive market periods, the reweighting would be towards non-Class A assets. Social implications – The global financial crisis has demonstrated that real estate markets play a crucial role in modern economies and that negative developments in these markets have the potential to spillover and create contagion for the larger economy, thereby affecting jobs, incomes and ultimately people’s livelihoods. Originality/value – This is one of the first studies that address the flight to quality phenomenon in commercial real estate markets during periods of financial crisis and market turmoil.

Scenari finanziari e portafogli ottimi: modelli di previsione e strategie per l'asset allocation tattica

Le scelte di asset allocation costituiscono un problema ricorrente per ogni investitore. Quest’ultimo è continuamente impegnato a combinare diverse asset class per giungere ad un investimento coerente con le proprie preferenze. L’esigenza di supportare gli asset manager nello svolgimento delle proprie mansioni ha alimentato nel tempo una vasta letteratura che ha proposto numerose strategie e modelli di portfolio construction. Questa tesi tenta di fornire una rassegna di alcuni modelli innovativi di previsione e di alcune strategie nell’ambito dell’asset allocation tattica, per poi valutarne i risvolti pratici. In primis verificheremo la sussistenza di eventuali relazioni tra la dinamica di alcune variabili macroeconomiche ed i mercati finanziari. Lo scopo è quello di individuare un modello econometrico capace di orientare le strategie dei gestori nella costruzione dei propri portafogli di investimento. L’analisi prende in considerazione il mercato americano, durante un periodo caratterizzato da rapide trasformazioni economiche e da un’elevata volatilità dei prezzi azionari. In secondo luogo verrà esaminata la validità delle strategie di trading momentum e contrarian nei mercati futures, in particolare quelli dell’Eurozona, che ben si prestano all’implementazione delle stesse, grazie all’assenza di vincoli sulle operazioni di shorting ed ai ridotti costi di transazione. Dall’indagine emerge che entrambe le anomalie si presentano con carattere di stabilità. I rendimenti anomali permangono anche qualora vengano utilizzati i tradizionali modelli di asset pricing, quali il CAPM, il modello di Fama e French e quello di Carhart. Infine, utilizzando l’approccio EGARCH-M, verranno formulate previsioni sulla volatilità dei rendimenti dei titoli appartenenti al Dow Jones. Quest’ultime saranno poi utilizzate come input per determinare le views da inserire nel modello di Black e Litterman. I risultati ottenuti, evidenziano, per diversi valori dello scalare tau, extra rendimenti medi del new combined vector superiori al vettore degli extra rendimenti di equilibrio di mercato, seppur con livelli più elevati di rischio.

Illiquidity shocks and the comovement between stocks:new evidence using smooth transition

This paper extends the smooth transition conditional correlation model by studying for the first time the impact that illiquidity shocks have on stock market return comovement. We show that firms that experience shocks that increase illiquidity are less liquid than firms that experience shocks that decrease illiquidity. Shocks that increase illiquidity have no statistical impact on comovement. However, shocks that reduce illiquidity lead to a fall in comovement, a pattern that becomes stronger as the illiquidity of the firm increases. This discovery is consistent with increased transparency and an improvement in price efficiency. We find that a small number of firms experience a double illiquidity shock. For these firms, at the first shock, a rise in illiquidity reduces comovement while a fall in illiquidity raises comovement. The second shock partly reverses these changes as a rise in illiquidity is associated with a rise in comovement and a fall in illiquidity is associated with a fall in comovement. These results have important implications for portfolio construction and also for the measurement and evolution of market beta and the cost of capital as it suggests that investors can achieve higher returns for the same amount of market risk because of the greater diversification benefits that exist. We also find that illiquidity, friction, firm size and the pre-shock correlation are all associated with the magnitude of the correlation change. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Construction d'outils d'évaluation d'une formation au portfolio de compétences : cas d'une formation de formateurs en France

L'objectif poursuivit rejoint davantage une démarche de reconnaissance personnelle, de bilan personnel et professionnel. L'expérimentation de cette démarche m'a conduite au-delà des frontières du Québec. Depuis 1989, j'interviens maintenant en France auprès de formateurs et d'intervenants qui oeuvrent auprès de clientèles jeunes tout autant qu'adultes. Nous continuons ensemble d'expérimenter la démarche et de l'adapter, toujours dans une optique d'autoformation, d'auto-évaluation et d'auto-orientation . Mon rôle d'accompagnatrice et de formatrice dans cette démarche est maintenant chose acquise. Il me manque des outils d'évaluation formels et crédibles pour que cette démarche formative ne soit pas déformée par tous les courants et pratiques en cours. Comme il s'agit d'améliorer des outils d'évaluation pour une formation déjà existante, le cadre conceptuel de la formation en tant que telle n'a pas fait l'objet d'une longue élaboration , celui-ci ayant fait l'objet de travaux antérieurs (Robin 1992 et 1993). L'objectif a été plutôt concentré sur l'évaluation et l'autoévaluation d'apprentissage. Après avoir campé la problématique et le sujet de recherche, la méthodologie utilisée pour l'élaboration d'un portfolio de compétences sera présentée. Le cadre théorique suivra alors avec les notions d'autoformation d'apprentissage et d'évaluation. Une description de la formation de formateurs menée à Montpellier - France - concrétisera le contexte d'application des outils d'évaluation qui devront être améliorés. Une analyse critique de ces outils sera apportée afin de les améliorer ou de les modifier au besoin. Un apport théorique sur la construction d'outils formels conduira à la création de nouveaux outils respectant les normes de validité. En annexe 1, se trouvent tous les documents relatifs à la formation menée à Montpellier ainsi que ceux accompagnant l'évaluation de cette formation à l'élaboration d'un portfolio de compétences. Une présentation des nouveaux outils d'évaluation à l'usage de l’évaluateur et des formateurs stagiaires fait l'objet de deux documents annexés à cet essai.

Inhibitors to optimal project portfolio selection

The selection of projects and programs of work is a key function of both public and private sector organisations. Ideally, projects and programs that are selected to be undertaken are consistent with strategic objectives for the organisation; will provide value for money and return on investment; will be adequately resourced and prioritised; will not compete with general operations for resources and not restrict the ability of operations to provide income to the organisation; will match the capacity and capability of the organisation to deliver; and will produce outputs that are willingly accepted by end users and customers. Unfortunately,this is not always the case. Possible inhibitors to optimal project portfolio selection include: processes that are inconsistent with the needs of the organisation; reluctance to use an approach that may not produce predetermined preferences; loss of control and perceived decision making power; reliance on quantitative methods rather than qualitative methods for justification; ineffective project and program sponsorship; unclear project governance, processes and linkage to business strategies; ignorance, taboos and perceived effectiveness; inadequate education and training about the processes and their importance.