Mark-recapture may reveal more about ecology than about population trends: Demography of a threatened ghost bat (Macroderma gigas) population

Since European settlement in Australia, the geographical range of ghost bats (Macroderma gigas) has contracted northwards. Ghost bats are thought to occur in disjunct populations with little interpopulation migration, raising concerns over the current status and future viability of the southernmost colony, which has also been threatened by mining activity. To address these concerns, demographic parameters of the southernmost colony were estimated from a mark-recapture study conducted during 1975-1981. Female bats gave birth to a single young in late spring, but only 40% (22-70%, 95% CI) of females bred in their second year, increasing to 93% (87-97%, 95% CI) for females greater than or equal to 2 years old. Sixty-five percent of juveniles caught were female. Annual adult survival ranged between 0.57-0.77 for females and 0.43-0.66 for males, and was lowest over winter-spring and greatest in autumn-winter. Juvenile survival for the first year ranged between 0.35-0.46 for females and 0.29-0.42 for males. Adult survival varied among seasons, was negatively associated with rainfall, but was not associated with temperature beyond being lower in late winter. Poor survival may result from the inferior daytime roosts that bats must use if water seepage forces them to leave their normal roosts. Although these age-specific rates of fecundity and survival suggested a declining population, mark-recapture estimates of the population trend indicated stability over the study period. Counts at daytime roosts also suggested a population decline, but were considered unreliable because of an increasing tendency of bats to avoid detection. It is therefore likely that some assumptions in estimating survival were violated. These results provide a caution against the uncritical use of population projections derived from mark-recapture estimates of demographic parameters, and the use of untested indices as the basis for conservation decisions.

How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site?

A study to monitor boreal songbird trends was initiated in 1998 in a relatively undisturbed and remote part of the boreal forest in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Eight years of point count data were collected over the 14 years of the study, 1998-2011. Trends were estimated for 50 bird species using generalized linear mixed-effects models, with random effects to account for temporal (repeat sampling within years) and spatial (stations within stands) autocorrelation and variability associated with multiple observers. We tested whether regional and national Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends could, on average, predict trends in our study area. Significant increases in our study area outnumbered decreases by 12 species to 6, an opposite pattern compared to Alberta (6 versus 15, respectively) and Canada (9 versus 20). Twenty-two species with relatively precise trend estimates (precision to detect > 30% decline in 10 years; observed SE ≤ 3.7%/year) showed nonsignificant trends, similar to Alberta (24) and Canada (20). Precision-weighted trends for a sample of 19 species with both reliable trends at our site and small portions of their range covered by BBS in Canada were, on average, more negative for Alberta (1.34% per year lower) and for Canada (1.15% per year lower) relative to Fort Liard, though 95% credible intervals still contained zero. We suggest that part of the differences could be attributable to local resource pulses (insect outbreak). However, we also suggest that the tendency for BBS route coverage to disproportionately sample more southerly, developed areas in the boreal forest could result in BBS trends that are not representative of range-wide trends for species whose range is centred farther north.

Increase of a Caribbean leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea nesting population linked to long-term nest protection

The leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea is considered to be at serious risk of global extinction, despite ongoing conservation efforts. Intensive long-term monitoring of a leatherback nesting population on Sandy Point (St. Croix, US Virgin Islands) offers a unique opportunity to quantify basic population parameters and evaluate effectiveness of nesting beach conservation practices. We report a significant increase in the number of females nesting annually from ca. 18-30 in the 1980s to 186 in 2001, with a corresponding increase in annual hatchling production from ca. 2000 to over 49,000. We then analyzed resighting data from 1991 to 2001 with an open robust-design capture-mark-recapture model to estimate annual nester survival and adult abundance for this population. The expected annual survival probability was estimated at ca. 0.893 (95% CL 0.87-0.92) and the population was estimated to be increasing ca. 13% pa since the early 1990s. Taken together with DNA fingerprinting that identify mother-daughter relations, our findings suggest that the increase in the size of the nesting population since 1991 was probably due to an aggressive program of beach protection and egg relocation initiated more than 20 years ago. Beach protection and egg relocation provide a simple and effective conservation strategy for this Northern Caribbean nesting population as long as adult survival at sea remains relatively high. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Attachment among Adoptive Families: Two Emipirical Studies in an International Context

The present dissertation analyzed the construct of attachment at different time points, specifically focusing on two phases of adoptive family life that have so far received little attention from investigators. Study 1 focused on the first months of adoption, and analyzed the development of the attachment relationship to new caregivers. The sample was composed of a small but homogeneous group (n=6) of Korean-born children, adopted by Italian parents. The Parent Attachment Diary (Dozier & Stovall, 1997) was utilized to assess the child's attachment behavior. We assessed these behavior for the first 3 months after placement into adoption. Results showed a double variability of attachment behavior: within subjects during the 3-months, and between subjects, with just half of the children developing a stable pattern of attachment. In order to test the growth trajectories of attachment behavior, Hierarchical Linear Models (Bryk & Raudenbush, 1992) were also applied, but no significant population trend was identified. Study 2 analyzed attachment among adoptees during the sensitive period of adolescence. Data was derived from an international collection (n= 104, from Belgium Italy, and Romania) of semi-structured clinical interviews (with adolescents and with their adoptive parents), as well as from questionnaires. The purpose of this study was to detect the role played by risk and protective factors on the adoptee's behavioral and socio-emotional outcomes. In addition, we tested the possible interactions between the different attachment representations within the adoptive family. Results showed that pre-adoptive risk predicted the adolescent's adjustment; however, parental representations constituted an important moderator of this relationship. Moreover, the adolescent's security of attachment partially mediated the relationship between age at placement and later behavioral problems. In conclusion, the two present attachment studies highlighted the notable rate of change of attachment behavior over time, which showed its underlying plasticity, and thus the possible reparatory value of the adoption practice. Since parents have been proven to play an important role, especially in adolescence, the post-adoption support acquires even more importance in order to help parents promoting a positive and stable relational environment over time. - L'objectif de cette thèse est de décrire la formation des relations d'attachement chez les enfants et les adolescents adoptés, lors de deux phases particulières de la vie de la famille adoptive, qui ont été relativement peu étudiées. L'Étude 1 analyse les premiers mois après l'adoption, avec le but de comprendre si, et comment, une relation d'attachement aux nouveaux parents se développe. L'échantillon est composé d'un petit groupe (n = 6) d'enfants provenant de Corée du Sud, adoptés par des parents Italiens. A l'aide du Parent Attachment Diary (Dozier & Stovall, 1997), des observations des comportements d'attachement de l'enfant ont été recueillies chaque jour au cours des 3 premiers mois après l'arrivée. Les résultats montrent une double variabilité des comportements d'attachement: au niveau inter- et intra-individuel ; au premier de ces niveaux, seuleme la moitié des enfants parvient à développer un pattern stable d'attachement ; au niveau intra-individuel, les trajectoires de développement des comportements d'attachement ont été testées à l'aide de Modèles Linéaires Hiérarchiques (Bryk et Raudenbush, 1992), mais aucune tendance significative n'a pu être révélée. L'Étude 2 vise à analyser l'attachement chez des enfants adoptés dans l'enfance, lors de la période particulièrement sensible de l'adolescence. Les données sont issues d'un base de données internationale (n = 104, Belgique, Italie et Roumanie), composée d' entretiens cliniques semi-structurées (auprès de l'adolescents et des ses parents adoptifs), ainsi que de questionnaires. Les analyses statistiques visent à détecter la présence de facteurs de risque et de protection relativement à l'attachement et aux problèmes de comportement de l'enfant adopté. En outre, la présence d'interactions entre les représentations d'attachement des membres de la famille adoptive est évaluée. Les résultats montrent que les risques associés à la période pré-adoptive prédisent la qualité du bien-être de l'adolescent, mais les représentations parentales constituent un modérateur important de cette relation. En outre, la sécurité de l'attachement du jeune adopté médiatise partiellement la relation entre l'âge au moment du placement et les problèmes de comportement lors de l'adolescence. En conclusion, à l'aide de multiples données relatives à l'attachement, ces deux études soulignent son évolution notable au fil du temps, ce qui sous-tend la présence d'une certaine plasticité, et donc la possible valeur réparatrice de la pratique de l'adoption. Comme les parents semblent jouer un rôle important de ce point de vue, surtout à l'adolescence, cela renforce la notion d'un soutien post-adoption, en vue d'aider les parents à la promotion d'un environnement relationnel favorable et stable. - Il presente lavoro è volto ad analizzare l'attaccamento durante le due fasi della vita della famiglia adottiva che meno sono state indagate dalla letteratura. Lo Studio 1 aveva l'obiettivo di analizzare i primi mesi che seguono il collocamento del bambino, al fine di capire se e come una relazione di attaccamento verso i nuovi genitori si sviluppa. Il campione è composto da un piccolo gruppo (n = 6) di bambini provenienti dalla Corea del Sud e adottati da genitori italiani. Attraverso il Parent Attachment Diary (Stovall e Dozier, 1997) sono stati osservati quotidianamente, e per i primi tre mesi, i comportamenti di attaccamento del bambino. I risultati hanno mostrato una duplice variabilità: a livello intraindividuale (nell'arco dei 3 mesi), ed interindividuale, poiché solo la metà dei bambini ha sviluppato un pattern stabile di attaccamento. Per verificare le traiettorie di sviluppo di tali comportamenti, sono stati applicati i Modelli Lineari Gerarchici (Bryk & Raudenbush, 1992), che però non hanno stimato una tendenza significativa all'interno della popolazione. Obiettivo dello Studio 2 è stato quello di esaminare l'attaccamento nelle famiglie i cui figli adottivi si trovavano nella delicata fase adolescenziale. I dati, provenienti da una raccolta internazionale (n = 104, Belgio, Italia e Romania), erano costituiti da interviste cliniche semi-strutturate (con gli adolescenti e i propri genitori adottivi) e da questionari. Le analisi hanno indagato il ruolo dei fattori di rischio sullo sviluppo socio-emotivo e sugli eventuali problemi comportamentali dei ragazzi. Inoltre, sono state esaminate le possibili interazioni tra le diverse rappresentazioni di attaccamento dei membri della famiglia adottiva. I risultati hanno mostrato che il rischio pre-adottivo predice l'adattamento dell'adolescente, sebbene le rappresentazioni genitoriali costituiscano un importante moderatore di questa relazione. Inoltre, la sicurezza dell'attaccamento dell'adolescente media parzialmente la relazione tra età al momento dell'adozione e problemi comportamentali in adolescenza. In conclusione, attraverso i molteplici dati relativi all'attaccamento, i due studi ne hanno evidenziato il cambiamento nel tempo, a riprova della sua plasticità, e pertanto sottolineano il possibile valore riparativo dell'adozione. Dal momento che i genitori svolgono un ruolo importante, soprattutto in adolescenza, il supporto nel post- adozione diventa centrale per aiutarli a promuovere un ambiente relazionale favorevole e stabile nel tempo.

Can wild ungulate carcasses provide enough biomass to maintain avian scavenger populations? An empirical assessment using a bio-inspired computational model

Background: The reduction in the amount of food available for European avian scavengers as a consequence of restrictive public health policies is a concern for managers and conservationists. Since 2002, the application of several sanitary regulations has limited the availability of feeding resources provided by domestic carcasses, but theoretical studies assessing whether the availability of food resources provided by wild ungulates are enough to cover energetic requirements are lacking. Methodology/Findings: We assessed food provided by a wild ungulate population in two areas of NE Spain inhabited by three vulture species and developed a P System computational model to assess the effects of the carrion resources provided on their population dynamics. We compared the real population trend with to a hypothetical scenario in which only food provided by wild ungulates was available. Simulation testing of the model suggests that wild ungulates constitute an important food resource in the Pyrenees and the vulture population inhabiting this area could grow if only the food provided by wild ungulates would be available. On the contrary, in the Pre-Pyrenees there is insufficient food to cover the energy requirements of avian scavenger guilds, declining sharply if biomass from domestic animals would not be available. Conclusions/Significance: Our results suggest that public health legislation can modify scavenger population trends if a large number of domestic ungulate carcasses disappear from the mountains. In this case, food provided by wild ungulates could be not enough and supplementary feeding could be necessary if other alternative food resources are not available (i.e. the reintroduction of wild ungulates), preferably in European Mediterranean scenarios sharing similar and socio-economic conditions where there are low densities of wild ungulates. Managers should anticipate the conservation actions required by assessing food availability and the possible scenarios in order to make the most suitable decisions.

Endangered Species, Provincialism, and a Continental Approach to Bird Conservation

I examined lists of endangered species from northeastern and midwestern United States to assess the extent to which they were dominated by species considered rare due to their vulnerability to anthropogenic stressors or, instead, by species whose rarity might be explained otherwise. Northeastern states had longer species lists than midwestern states, and more species associated with locally rare prairie habitats. More species at the edge of their geographic range appeared on lists from the Northeast than the Midwest. About 70% of listed species overall have shown either no significant population trend, or increases, at the continental scale, but wetland and prairie species were frequently listed, consistent with the generally acknowledged, widespread loss of these habitats. Curiously, midwestern states tended to list fewer forest species, despite evidence that forest fragmentation there has had strongly deleterious effects on regional bird populations. Overall, species appear to be listed locally for a variety of reasons not necessarily related to their risk of extinction generally, potentially contributing to inefficient distributions of limited resources to deal effectively with species that legitimately require conservation attention. I advocate a continental perspective when listing species locally, and propose enhanced criteria for characterizing species as endangered at the local level.

Land Cover Sampling Biases Associated with Roadside Bird Surveys

Roadside surveys such as the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) are widely used to assess the relative abundance of bird populations. The accuracy of roadside surveys depends on the extent to which surveys from roads represent the entire region under study. We quantified roadside land cover sampling bias in Tennessee, USA, by comparing land cover proportions near roads to proportions of the surrounding region. Roadside surveys gave a biased estimate of patterns across the region because some land cover types were over- or underrepresented near roads. These biases changed over time, introducing varying levels of distortion into the data. We constructed simulated population trends for five bird species of management interest based on these measured roadside sampling biases and on field data on bird abundance. These simulations indicated that roadside surveys may give overly negative assessments of the population trends of early successional birds and of synanthropic birds, but not of late-successional birds. Because roadside surveys are the primary source of avian population trend information in North America, we conclude that these surveys should be corrected for roadside land cover sampling bias. In addition, current recommendations about the need to create more early successional habitat for birds may need reassessment in the light of the undersampling of this habitat by roads.

Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) surveys in the North American Intermountain West: utilizing citizen scientists to conduct monitoring across a broad geographic scale

The Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) is an open-country species breeding in the northern United States and Canada, and has likely experienced a long-term, range-wide, and substantial decline. However, the cause and magnitude of the decline is not well understood. We set forth to address the first two of six previously proposed conservation priorities to be addressed for this species: (1) better define habitat use and (2) improve population monitoring. We recruited 131 volunteers to survey over 6.2 million ha within the state of Idaho for Short-eared Owls during the 2015 breeding season. We surveyed 75 transects, 71 of which were surveyed twice, and detected Short-eared Owls on 27 transects. We performed multiscale occupancy modeling to identify habitat associations, and performed multiscale abundance modeling to generate a state-wide population estimate. Our results suggest that within the state of Idaho, Short-eared Owls are more often found in areas with marshland or riparian habitat or areas with greater amounts of sagebrush habitat at the 1750 ha transect scale. At the 50 ha point scale, Short-eared Owls tend to associate positively with fallow and bare dirt agricultural land and negatively with grassland. Cropland was not chosen at the broader transect scale suggesting that Short-eared Owls may prefer more heterogeneous landscapes. On the surface our results may seem contradictory to the presumed land use by a “grassland” species; however, the grasslands of the Intermountain West, consisting largely of invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), lack the complex structure shown to be preferred by these owls. We suggest the local adaptation to agriculture represents the next best habitat to their historical native habitat preferences. Regardless, we have confirmed regional differences that should be considered in conservation planning for this species. Last, our results demonstrate the feasibility, efficiency, and effectiveness of utilizing public participation in scientific research to achieve a robust sampling methodology across the broad geography of the Intermountain West.

Resource availability and the persistence of seed-eating bird populations in agricultural landscapes – a mechanistic modelling approach

1. Reductions in resource availability, associated with land-use change and agricultural intensification in the UK and Europe, have been linked with the widespread decline of many farmland bird species over recent decades. However, the underlying ecological processes which link resource availability and population trends are poorly understood. 2. We construct a spatial depletion model to investigate the relationship between the population persistence of granivorous birds within the agricultural landscape and the temporal dynamics of stubble field availability, an important source of winter food for many of those species. 3. The model is capable of accurately predicting the distribution of a given number of finches and buntings amongst patches of different stubble types in an agricultural landscape over the course of a winter and assessing the relative value of different landscapes in terms of resource availability. 4. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model is relatively robust to estimates of energetic requirements, search efficiency and handling time but that daily seed survival estimates have a strong influence on model fit. Understanding resource dynamics in agricultural landscapes is highlighted as a key area for further research. 5. There was a positive relationship between the predicted number of bird days supported by a landscape over-winter and the breeding population trend for yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella, a species for which survival has been identified as the primary driver of population dynamics, but not for linnet Carduelis cannabina, a species for which productivity has been identified as the primary driver of population dynamics. 6. Synthesis and applications. We believe this model can be used to guide the effective delivery of over-winter food resources under agri-environment schemes and to assess the impacts on granivorous birds of changing resource availability associated with novel changes in land use. This could be very important in the future as farming adapts to an increasingly dynamic trading environment, in which demands for increased agricultural production must be reconciled with objectives for environmental protection, including biodiversity conservation.

Interação genotipo-ambiente para idade ao primeiro parto, perímetro escrotal e peso ao sobreano em bovinos da raça Nelore utilizando normas de reação

Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV

Can wild ungulate carcasses provide enough biomass to maintain avian scavenger populations? An empirical assessment using a bio-inspired computational model

Background The reduction in the amount of food available for European avian scavengers as a consequence of restrictive public health policies is a concern for managers and conservationists. Since 2002, the application of several sanitary regulations has limited the availability of feeding resources provided by domestic carcasses, but theoretical studies assessing whether the availability of food resources provided by wild ungulates are enough to cover energetic requirements are lacking. Methodology/Findings We assessed food provided by a wild ungulate population in two areas of NE Spain inhabited by three vulture species and developed a P System computational model to assess the effects of the carrion resources provided on their population dynamics. We compared the real population trend with to a hypothetical scenario in which only food provided by wild ungulates was available. Simulation testing of the model suggests that wild ungulates constitute an important food resource in the Pyrenees and the vulture population inhabiting this area could grow if only the food provided by wild ungulates would be available. On the contrary, in the Pre-Pyrenees there is insufficient food to cover the energy requirements of avian scavenger guilds, declining sharply if biomass from domestic animals would not be available. Conclusions/Significance Our results suggest that public health legislation can modify scavenger population trends if a large number of domestic ungulate carcasses disappear from the mountains. In this case, food provided by wild ungulates could be not enough and supplementary feeding could be necessary if other alternative food resources are not available (i.e. the reintroduction of wild ungulates), preferably in European Mediterranean scenarios sharing similar and socio-economic conditions where there are low densities of wild ungulates. Managers should anticipate the conservation actions required by assessing food availability and the possible scenarios in order to make the most suitable decisions.

Tendència poblacional de la garsa (Pica pica) per al període 1994-2009 a la desembocadura del riu Millars (Castelló)

Aquesta nota mostra la tendència poblacional de la garsa (Pica pica) al llarg del kilòmetre 1 (des de la línea de costa, riu amunt) del paisatge protegit de la Desembocadura del riu Millars (Castelló), per al període comprés de 1994-2009 (16 anys). Els resultats se centren en censos realitzats a la zona mitjançant el mètode del transecte lineal duts a terme 3 o 4 vegades al mes. L’espècie se censa per primera vegada l’any 1997 i des l’aleshores mostra una tendència a l’alça sobretot a partir de 2003 i molt especialment en els dos últims (2008-2009). S’ha estabilitzat una abundància mitjana de 8,3 aus/km. Pel que fa a les correlacions amb la meteorologia, en els anys més freds presenta menor abundància que en els càlids. Els hiverns càlids podrien permetre major supervivència i, a més, major disponibilitat de recursos amb els quals assegurar un bon nombre de polls. L’espècie troba en la zona suficients recursos tròfics per sobreviure i un lloc excel·lent on lliurar-se de la pressió cinegètica.

Evaluating trends in abundance of immature green turtles, Chelonia mydas, in the Greater Caribbean

Many long-lived marine species exhibit life history traits. that make them more vulnerable to overexploitation. Accurate population trend analysis is essential for development and assessment of management plans for these species. However, because many of these species disperse over large geographic areas, have life stages inaccessible to human surveyors, and/or undergo complex developmental migrations, data on trends in abundance are often available for only one stage of the population, usually breeding adults. The green turtle (Chelonia mydas) is one of these long-lived species for which population trends are based almost exclusively on either numbers of females that emerge to nest or numbers of nests deposited each year on geographically restricted beaches. In this study, we generated estimates of annual abundance for juvenile green turtles at two foraging grounds in the Bahamas based on long-term capture-mark-recapture (CMR) studies at Union Creek (24 years) and Conception Creek (13 years), using a two-stage approach. First, we estimated recapture probabilities from CMR data using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models in the software program MARK; second, we estimated annual abundance of green turtles. at both study sites using the recapture probabilities in a Horvitz-Thompson type estimation procedure. Green turtle abundance did not change significantly in Conception Creek, but, in Union Creek, green turtle abundance had successive phases of significant increase, significant decrease, and stability. These changes in abundance resulted from changes in immigration, not survival or emigration. The trends in abundance on the foraging grounds did not conform to the significantly increasing trend for the major nesting population at Tortuguero, Costa Rica. This disparity highlights the challenges of assessing population-wide trends of green turtles and other long-lived species. The best approach for monitoring population trends may be a combination of (1) extensive surveys to provide data for large-scale trends in relative population abundance, and (2) intensive surveys, using CMR techniques, to estimate absolute abundance and evaluate the demographic processes' driving the trends.

Presence-absence versus abundance data for monitoring threatened species

Effective detection of population trend is crucial for managing threatened species. Little theory exists, however, to assist managers in choosing the most cost-effective monitoring techniques for diagnosing trend. We present a framework for determining the optimal monitoring strategy by simulating a manager collecting data on a declining species, the Chestnut-rumped Hylacola (Hylacola pyrrhopygia parkeri), to determine whether the species should be listed under the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List. We compared the efficiencies of two strategies for detecting trend, abundance, and presence-absence surveys, underfinancial constraints. One might expect the abundance surveys to be superior under all circumstances because more information is collected at each site. Nevertheless, the presence-absence data can be collected at more sites because the surveyor is not obliged to spend a fixed amount of time at each site. The optimal strategy for monitoring was very dependent on the budget available. Under some circumstances, presence-absence surveys outperformed abundance surveys for diagnosing the IUCN Red List categories cost-effectively. Abundance surveys were best if the species was expected to be recorded more than 16 times/year; otherwise, presence-absence surveys were best. The relationship between the strategies we investigated is likely to be relevant for many comparisons of presence-absence or abundance data. Managers of any cryptic or low-density species who hope to maximize their success of estimating trend should find an application for our results.

Temporal aggregation of migration counts can improve accuracy and precision of trends

Temporal replicate counts are often aggregated to improve model fit by reducing zero-inflation and count variability, and in the case of migration counts collected hourly throughout a migration, allows one to ignore nonindependence. However, aggregation can represent a loss of potentially useful information on the hourly or seasonal distribution of counts, which might impact our ability to estimate reliable trends. We simulated 20-year hourly raptor migration count datasets with known rate of change to test the effect of aggregating hourly counts to daily or annual totals on our ability to recover known trend. We simulated data for three types of species, to test whether results varied with species abundance or migration strategy: a commonly detected species, e.g., Northern Harrier, Circus cyaneus; a rarely detected species, e.g., Peregrine Falcon, Falco peregrinus; and a species typically counted in large aggregations with overdispersed counts, e.g., Broad-winged Hawk, Buteo platypterus. We compared accuracy and precision of estimated trends across species and count types (hourly/daily/annual) using hierarchical models that assumed a Poisson, negative binomial (NB) or zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) count distribution. We found little benefit of modeling zero-inflation or of modeling the hourly distribution of migration counts. For the rare species, trends analyzed using daily totals and an NB or ZINB data distribution resulted in a higher probability of detecting an accurate and precise trend. In contrast, trends of the common and overdispersed species benefited from aggregation to annual totals, and for the overdispersed species in particular, trends estimating using annual totals were more precise, and resulted in lower probabilities of estimating a trend (1) in the wrong direction, or (2) with credible intervals that excluded the true trend, as compared with hourly and daily counts.