Use of an Inverse Method for Time Series to Estimate the Dynamics of and Management Strategies for the Box Jellyfish Carybdea marsupialis

Frequently, population ecology of marine organisms uses a descriptive approach in which their sizes and densities are plotted over time. This approach has limited usefulness for design strategies in management or modelling different scenarios. Population projection matrix models are among the most widely used tools in ecology. Unfortunately, for the majority of pelagic marine organisms, it is difficult to mark individuals and follow them over time to determine their vital rates and built a population projection matrix model. Nevertheless, it is possible to get time-series data to calculate size structure and densities of each size, in order to determine the matrix parameters. This approach is known as a “demographic inverse problem” and it is based on quadratic programming methods, but it has rarely been used on aquatic organisms. We used unpublished field data of a population of cubomedusae Carybdea marsupialis to construct a population projection matrix model and compare two different management strategies to lower population to values before year 2008 when there was no significant interaction with bathers. Those strategies were by direct removal of medusae and by reducing prey. Our results showed that removal of jellyfish from all size classes was more effective than removing only juveniles or adults. When reducing prey, the highest efficiency to lower the C. marsupialis population occurred when prey depletion affected prey of all medusae sizes. Our model fit well with the field data and may serve to design an efficient management strategy or build hypothetical scenarios such as removal of individuals or reducing prey. TThis This sdfsdshis method is applicable to other marine or terrestrial species, for which density and population structure over time are available.

Population projection model for small island countries, an illustration for Aruba 2003-2023

Includes bibliography

Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Evaluation of an average numerator relationship matrix model and a Bayesian hierarchical model for growth traits in Nellore cattle with uncertain paternity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Looking for a Matrix model for ABJM theory

Encouraged by the recent construction of fuzzy sphere solutions in the Aharony, Bergman, Jafferis, and Maldacena (ABJM) theory, we re-analyze the latter from the perspective of a Matrix-like model. In particular, we argue that a vortex solution exhibits properties of a supergraviton, while a kink represents a 2-brane. Other solutions are also consistent with the Matrix-type interpretation. We study vortex scattering and compare with graviton scattering in the massive ABJM background, however our results are inconclusive. We speculate on how to extend our results to construct a Matrix theory of ABJM.

REDUCTION OF TODA LATTICE HIERARCHY TO GENERALIZED KDV HIERARCHIES AND THE 2-MATRIX MODEL

Toda lattice hierarchy and the associated matrix formulation of the 2M-boson KP hierarchies provide a framework for the Drinfeld-Sokolov reduction scheme realized through Hamiltonian action within the second KP Poisson bracket. By working with free currents, which Abelianize the second KP Hamiltonian structure, we are able to obtain a unified formalism for the reduced SL(M + 1, M - k) KdV hierarchies interpolating between the ordinary KP and KdV hierarchies. The corresponding Lax operators are given as superdeterminants of graded SL(M + 1, M - k) matrices in the diagonal gauge and we describe their bracket structure and field content. In particular, we provide explicit free field representations of the associated W(M, M - k) Poisson bracket algebras generalising the familiar nonlinear W-M+1 algebra. Discrete Backlund transformations for SL(M + 1, M - k) KdV are generated naturally from lattice translations in the underlying Toda-like hierarchy. As an application we demonstrate the equivalence of the two-matrix string model to the SL(M + 1, 1) KdV hierarchy.

Proyección de población = Population projection

Incluye CD-ROM

Proyección de población = Population projection

Incluye CD-ROM

América Latina: proyecciones de población, 1950-2025 = Latin America: population projection, 1950-2025

Publicación bilingüe (Español e inglés)

América Latina: proyecciones de población, 1950-2025 = Latin America: population projection, 1950-2025

Publicación bilingüe (Español e inglés)

América Latina: proyecciones de población, 1950-2025 = Latin America: population projection, 1950-2025

Publicación bilingüe (Español e inglés)

América Latina: proyecciones de población, 1950-2025 = Latin America: population projection, 1950-2025

Publicación bilingüe (Español e inglés)

América Latina: proyecciones de población, 1970-2050 = Latin America: population projection, 1970-2050

Publicación bilingüe (Español e inglés)

Prediction of residential radon exposure of the whole Swiss population: comparison of model-based predictions with measurement-based predictions

Radon plays an important role for human exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiation. The aim of this article is to compare two approaches to estimate mean radon exposure in the Swiss population: model-based predictions at individual level and measurement-based predictions based on measurements aggregated at municipality level. A nationwide model was used to predict radon levels in each household and for each individual based on the corresponding tectonic unit, building age, building type, soil texture, degree of urbanization, and floor. Measurement-based predictions were carried out within a health impact assessment on residential radon and lung cancer. Mean measured radon levels were corrected for the average floor distribution and weighted with population size of each municipality. Model-based predictions yielded a mean radon exposure of the Swiss population of 84.1 Bq/m(3) . Measurement-based predictions yielded an average exposure of 78 Bq/m(3) . This study demonstrates that the model- and the measurement-based predictions provided similar results. The advantage of the measurement-based approach is its simplicity, which is sufficient for assessing exposure distribution in a population. The model-based approach allows predicting radon levels at specific sites, which is needed in an epidemiological study, and the results do not depend on how the measurement sites have been selected.