Some considerations on the design of population pharmacokinetic studies

The goal of this manuscript is to introduce a framework for consideration of designs for population pharmacokinetic orpharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic studies. A standard one compartment pharmacokinetic model with first-order input and elimination is considered. A series of theoretical designs are considered that explore the influence of optimizing the allocation of sampling times, allocating patients to elementary designs, consideration of sparse sampling and unbalanced designs and also the influence of single vs. multiple dose designs. It was found that what appears to be relatively sparse sampling (less blood samples per patient than the number of fixed effects parameters to estimate) can also be highly informative. Overall, it is evident that exploring the population design space can yield many parsimonious designs that are efficient for parameter estimation and that may not otherwise have been considered without the aid of optimal design theory.

Validating a screening tool for mental health and substance use risk in an Indigenous prison population

Introduction and Aims: The Indigenous Risk Impact Screen (IRIS) is a validated culturally appropriate and widely used tool in the community for assessing substance use and mental disorder. This research aimed to assess the utility of this tool in an Indigenous prison population. Design and Methods: The study used data collected from a cross-sectional study of mental health among indigenous inmates in Queensland custodial centres (n=395, 84% male). Participants were administered a modified version of the IRIS, and ICD-10 diagnoses of substance use, depressive and anxiety disorders obtained using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). The concurrent validity of the modified IRIS was assessed against those of the CIDI. Results: 312 people screened as high risk for a substance use disorder and 179 were high risk for mental problems. 73% of males and 88% of females were diagnosed with a mental disorder. The IRIS was an effective screener for substance use disorders, with high sensitivity (Se) of 94% and low specificity (Sp) of 33%. The screener was less effective in identifying depression (Se 82%, Sp 59%) and anxiety (Se 68%, Sp 60%). Discussion: The IRIS is the first culturally appropriate screening instrument to be validated for the risk of drug and alcohol and mental disorder among Indigenous adults in custody. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that the IRIS is a valid tool for screening of alcohol and drug use risk among an incarcerated Indigenous population. The IRIS could offer an opportunity to improve the identification, treatment and health outcomes for incarcerated Indigenous adults.

Simulation-based fully Bayesian experimental design for mixed effects models

In this paper, we present fully Bayesian experimental designs for nonlinear mixed effects models, in which we develop simulation-based optimal design methods to search over both continuous and discrete design spaces. Although Bayesian inference has commonly been performed on nonlinear mixed effects models, there is a lack of research into performing Bayesian optimal design for nonlinear mixed effects models that require searches to be performed over several design variables. This is likely due to the fact that it is much more computationally intensive to perform optimal experimental design for nonlinear mixed effects models than it is to perform inference in the Bayesian framework. In this paper, the design problem is to determine the optimal number of subjects and samples per subject, as well as the (near) optimal urine sampling times for a population pharmacokinetic study in horses, so that the population pharmacokinetic parameters can be precisely estimated, subject to cost constraints. The optimal sampling strategies, in terms of the number of subjects and the number of samples per subject, were found to be substantially different between the examples considered in this work, which highlights the fact that the designs are rather problem-dependent and require optimisation using the methods presented in this paper.

Familial aggregation of hyperopia in an elderly population of siblings in Salisbury, Maryland.

PURPOSE: To determine whether hyperopia aggregates in families in an older mixed-race population. DESIGN: Cross-sectional familial aggregation study using sibships. METHODS: We recruited 759 subjects (mean age, 73.4 years) in 241 families through the population-based Salisbury Eye Evaluation study. Subjects underwent noncycloplegic refraction if best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was <or=20/40, had lensometry to measure their currently worn spectacles if BCVA was >20/40 with spectacles, or were considered to be plano (refraction of zero) if the BCVA was >20/40 without spectacles. Preoperative refraction from medical records was used for bilaterally pseudophakic subjects. RESULTS: Utilizing hyperopia cutoffs from 1.00 to 2.50 diopters, age-, race-, and gender-adjusted odds ratios for hyperopia with an affected sibling ranged from 2.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.84-4.01) to 4.87 (95% CI, 2.54-9.30). The odds of hyperopia increased with age until 75 years, after which they remained relatively constant. Black men were significantly less likely to be hyperopic than white men, white women, or black women. CONCLUSIONS: Hyperopia appears to be under strong genetic control in this older population.

Randomized comparison of biodegradable polymer sirolimus-eluting stents versus durable polymer everolimus-eluting stents for percutaneous coronary revascularization: Rationale and design of the BIOSCIENCE trial

Background Biodegradable polymers for release of antiproliferative drugs from metallic drug-eluting stents (DES) aim to improve long-term vascular healing and efficacy. We designed a large scale clinical trial to compare a novel thin strut, cobalt chromium DES with silicon carbide coating releasing sirolimus from a biodegradable polymer (Orsiro, O-SES) with the durable polymer-based Xience Prime everolimus-eluting stent (X-EES) in an all-comers patient population. Design The multicenter BIOSCIENCE trial (NCT01443104) randomly assigned 2,119 patients to treatment with biodegradable polymer SES or durable polymer EES at 9 sites in Switzerland. Patients with chronic stable coronary artery disease or acute coronary syndromes, including non-ST-elevation and ST-elevation myocardial infarction, were eligible for the trial if they had at least one lesion with a diameter stenosis >50% appropriate for coronary stent implantation. The primary endpoint target lesion failure (TLF) is a composite of cardiac death, target-vessel myocardial infarction, and clinically-driven target lesion revascularization within 12 months. Assuming a TLF rate of 8% at 12 months in both treatment arms and accepting 3.5% as a margin for non-inferiority, inclusion of 2,060 patients would provide 80% power to detect non-inferiority of the biodegradable polymer SES compared with the durable polymer EES at a one-sided type I error of 0.05. Clinical follow-up will be continued through five years. Conclusion The BIOSCIENCE trial will determine whether the biodegradable polymer SES is non-inferior to the durable polymer EES with respect to TLF.

The prevalence and impact of overweight and obesity in an Australian obstetric population

Objective: To assess the prevalence and impact of overweight and obesity in an Australian obstetric population. Design, setting and participants: The Mater Mother's Hospital (MMH), South Brisbane, is an urban tertiary referral maternity hospital. We reviewed data for the 18401 women who were booked for antenatal care at the MMH, delivered between January 1998 and December 2002, and had a singleton pregnancy. Of those women, 14 230 had an estimated pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) noted in their record; 2978 women with BMI 40 kg/m(2)). Main outcome measures: Prevalence of overweight and obesity in an obstetric population; maternal, peripartum and neonatal outcomes associated with raised BMI. Results: Of the 14230 women, 6443 (45%) were of normal weight, and 4809 (34%) were overweight, obese or morbidly obese. Overweight, obese and morbidly obese women were at increased risk of adverse outcomes (figures represent adjusted odds ratio [AOR] [95% Cl]): hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (overweight 1.74 [1.45-2.15], obese 3.00 [2.40-3.74], morbidly obese 4.87 [3.27-7.24]); gestational diabetes (overweight 1.78 [1.25-2.52], obese 2.95 [2.05-4.25], morbidly obese 7.44 [4.42-12.54]); hospital admission longer than 5 days (overweight 1.36 [1.13-1.63], obese 1.49 [1.21-1.86], morbidly obese 3.18 [2.19-4.61]); and caesarean section (overweight 1.50 [1.36-1.66], obese 2.02 [1.79-2.29], morbidly obese 2.54 [1.94-3.321). Neonates born to obese and morbidly obese women had an increased risk of birth defects (obese 1.58 (1.02-2.46], morbidly obese 3.41 [1.67-6.94]); and hypoglycaemia (obese 2.57 [1.39-4.78], morbidly obese 7.14 [3.04-16.74]). Neonates born to morbidly obese women were at increased risk of admission to intensive care (2.77 [1.81-4.25]); premature delivery (< 34 weeks' gestation) (2.13 [1.13-4.01]); and jaundice (1.44 [1.09-1.89]). Conclusions: Overweight and obesity are common in pregnant women. Increasing BMI is associated with maternal and neonatal outcomes that may increase the costs of obstetric care. To assist in planning health service delivery, we believe that BMI should be routinely recorded on perinatal data collection sheets

人口统计信息空间可视化系统研究

Population research is a front area concerned by domestic and overseas, especially its researches on its spatial visualization and its geo-visualization system design, which provides a sound base for understanding and analysis of the regional difference in population distribution and its spatial rules. With the development of GIS, the theory of geo-visualization more and more plays an important role in many research fields, especially in population information visualization, and has been made the big achievements recently. Nevertheless, the current research is less attention paid to the system design for statistical-geo visualization for population information. This paper tries to explore the design theories and methodologies for statistical-geo-visualization system for population information. The researches are mainly focused on the framework, the methodologies and techniques for the system design and construction. The purpose of the research is developed a platform for population atlas by the integration of the former owned copy software of the research group in statistical mapping system. As a modern tool, the system will provide a spatial visual environment for user to analyze the characteristics of population distribution and differentiate the interrelations of the population components. Firstly, the paper discusses the essentiality of geo-visualization for population information and brings forward the key issue in statistical-geo visualization system design based on the analysis of inland and international trends. Secondly, the geo-visualization system for population design, including its structure, functionality, module, user interface design, is studied based on the concepts of theory and technology of geo-visualization. The system design is proposed and further divided into three parts: support layer, technical layer, user layer. The support layer is a basic operation module and main part of the system. The technical layer is a core part of the system, supported by database and function modules. The database module mainly include the integrated population database (comprises spatial data, attribute data and geographical features information), the cartographic symbol library, the color library, the statistical analysis model. The function module of the system consists of thematic map maker component, statistical graph maker component, database management component and statistical analysis component. The user layer is an integrated platform, which provides the functions to design and implement a visual interface for user to query, analysis and management the statistic data and the electronic map. Based on the above, China's E-atlas for population was designed and developed by the integration of the national fifth census data with 1:400 million scaled spatial data. The atlas illustrates the actual development level of the population nowadays in China by about 200 thematic maps relating with 10 map categories(environment, population distribution, sex and age, immigration, nation, family and marriage, birth, education, employment, house). As a scientific reference tool, China's E-atlas for population has already received the high evaluation after published in early 2005. Finally, the paper makes the deep analysis of the sex ratio in China, to show how to use the functions of the system to analyze the specific population problem and how to make the data mining. The analysis results showed that: 1. The sex ratio has been increased in many regions after fourth census in 1990 except the cities in the east region, and the high sex ratio is highly located in hilly and low mountain areas where with the high illiteracy rate and the high poor rate; 2. The statistical-geo visualization system is a powerful tool to handle population information, which can be used to reflect the regional differences and the regional variations of population in China and indicate the interrelations of the population with other environment factors. Although the author tries to bring up a integrate design frame of the statistical-geo visualization system, there are still many problems needed to be resolved with the development of geo-visualization studies.

Variation in pediatric traumatic brain injury outcomes in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To ascertain the degree of variation, by state of hospitalization, in outcomes associated with traumatic brain injury (TBI) in a pediatric population. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study of pediatric patients admitted to a hospital with a TBI. SETTING: Hospitals from states in the United States that voluntarily participate in the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. PARTICIPANTS: Pediatric (age ≤ 19 y) patients hospitalized for TBI (N=71,476) in the United States during 2001, 2004, 2007, and 2010. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was proportion of patients discharged to rehabilitation after an acute care hospitalization among alive discharges. The secondary outcome was inpatient mortality. RESULTS: The relative risk of discharge to inpatient rehabilitation varied by as much as 3-fold among the states, and the relative risk of inpatient mortality varied by as much as nearly 2-fold. In the United States, approximately 1981 patients could be discharged to inpatient rehabilitation care if the observed variation in outcomes was eliminated. CONCLUSIONS: There was significant variation between states in both rehabilitation discharge and inpatient mortality after adjusting for variables known to affect each outcome. Future efforts should be focused on identifying the cause of this state-to-state variation, its relationship to patient outcome, and standardizing treatment across the United States.

Risk of fatal injury in older adult drivers, passengers, and pedestrians

Objectives To compare risk of fatal injury in elderly road users (drivers, passengers, pedestrians) with that of younger age groups and to assess the contribution of elderly road users to the number of reported fatalities in the population. Design Fatality age was categorized as 21 to 29, 30 to 39, 40 to 49, 50 to 59, 60 to 69, or 70 and older, and road user was categorized as driver, passenger, or pedestrian. Estimated number of trips made by each age group was used to adjust for exposure and to measure individual risk. Setting Fatalities recorded in Britain between 1989 and 2009. Participants Population-wide fatal injury counts in Britain. Measurements Age of fatally injured drivers, passengers, and pedestrians. Estimated number of trips made per year by drivers, passengers, and pedestrians. Results Risk of fatal injury, but not fatality numbers in the population, were higher for older adult (=70) drivers than for younger age groups. Risk of fatal injury was also high for older adult passengers and pedestrians, who represented the majority of older adult fatalities. Conclusion Previous emphasis on driver impairment in older age has unduly focussed attention on elderly drivers, who represent a minority of all driver fatalities. Older adults represent a much larger proportion of passenger and pedestrian fatalities. Additional policy schemes and initiatives should be targeted at safeguarding older adult passengers and making the road environment safer for elderly pedestrians. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

Impact of age, various forms of cataract, and visual acuity on whole-field scotopic sensitivity screening for glaucoma in rural Taiwan.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of age, various forms of cataract, and visual acuity on whole-field scotopic sensitivity screening for glaucoma in a rural population. DESIGN: Clinic-based study with population-based recruitment. SETTING: Jin Shan Township near Taipei, Taiwan. SUBJECTS: Three hundred forty-six residents (ages, > or = 40 years) of Jin Shan Township. INTERVENTIONS: Whole-field scotopic testing, ophthalmoscopy with dilation of the pupils, cataract grading against photographic standards, and screening visual field testing in a random one-third subsample. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Whole-field scotopic sensitivity (in decibels) and diagnostic status as a case of glaucoma, glaucoma suspect, or normal. RESULTS: Participants in Jin Shan Township did not differ significantly in the rate of blindness, low visual acuity, or family history of glaucoma from a random sample of nonrespondents. Scotopic sensitivity testing detected 100% (6/6) of subjects with open-angle glaucoma at a specificity of 80.2%. The mean +/- SE scotopic sensitivity for six subjects with open-angle glaucoma (32.78 +/- 1.51 dB) differed significantly from that of 315 normal individuals (38.51 +/- 0.22 dB), when adjusted for age and visual acuity (P = .05, t test). With linear regression modeling, factors that correlated significantly with scotopic sensitivity were intraocular pressure, screening visual field, best corrected visual acuity, presence of cortical cataract, and increasing age. CONCLUSIONS: Although cataract affects the whole-field scotopic threshold, it appears that scotopic testing may be of value in field-based screening for glaucoma.

Therapy modifications in response to poorly controlled hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Poorly controlled cardiovascular risk factors are common. Evaluating whether physicians respond appropriately to poor risk factor control in patients may better reflect quality of care than measuring proportions of patients whose conditions are controlled. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate therapy modifications in response to poor control of hypertension, dyslipidemia, or diabetes in a large clinical population. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study within an 18-month period in 2002 to 2003. SETTING: Kaiser Permanente of Northern California. PATIENTS: 253,238 adult members with poor control of 1 or more of these conditions. MEASUREMENTS: The authors assessed the proportion of patients with poor control who experienced a change in pharmacotherapy within 6 months, and they defined "appropriate care" as a therapy modification or return to control without therapy modification within 6 months. RESULTS: A total of 64% of patients experienced modifications in therapy for poorly controlled systolic blood pressure, 71% for poorly controlled diastolic blood pressure, 56% for poorly controlled low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, and 66% for poorly controlled hemoglobin A1c level. Most frequent modifications were increases in number of drug classes (from 70% to 84%) and increased dosage (from 15% to 40%). An additional 7% to 11% of those with poorly controlled blood pressure, but only 3% to 4% of those with elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level or hemoglobin A1c level, returned to control without therapy modification. Patients with more than 1 of the 3 conditions, higher baseline values, and target organ damage were more likely to receive "appropriate care." LIMITATIONS: Patient preferences and suboptimal adherence to therapy were not measured and may explain some failures to act. CONCLUSIONS: As an additional measure of the quality of care, measuring therapy modifications in response to poor control in a large population is feasible. Many patients with poorly controlled hypertension, dyslipidemia, or diabetes had their therapy modified and, thus, seemed to receive clinically "appropriate care" with this new quality measure.

Association of IL1 gene polymorphisms with chronic periodontitis in Brazilians

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Oral clefts and vitamin supplementation

Objectives: the evidence linking low levels of folic acid and orofacial clefting (OFC) is presently equivocal, There is stronger evidence for the role of folic acid supplementation in protection against the occurrence and recurrence of neural tube defects. The present investigation tested the hypotheses that cleft lip, cleft palate, or both are inversely associated with maternal intake of dietary and supplemental vitamins during the periconceptional period and first 4 months of pregnancy in a Brazilian population.Design: A population-based, case-control study of cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL(P)) and isolated cleft palate (CP) in a Brazilian population. in structured interviews, case histories were taken from the mothers of a consecutive sample of 450 infants born with nonsyndromic OFC,Results: Mothers who had children with CL(P) were less likely to have been supplemented during the periconceptional period. The statistical significance of the difference in prevalence of the use of supplements between mothers of patients and of controls was greater for the CL(P) group: p < .05 for CP and p < .001 for CL(P). Multivariate analysis confirmed this finding of a protective effect for both types of orofacial cleft,Conclusions: the use of vitamin supplements in the first 4 months of pregnancy was suggestive of a protective effect against the occurrence of CP and CL(P) in this population, the significance of an association between multivitamin supplementation and OFC and the possible role of gene/environment interaction are discussed.

Assessment of cavitated and active non-cavitated caries lesions in 3-to 4-year-old preschool children: a field study

Background. The prevalence of early childhood caries (ECC) is high in developing countries; thus, sensitive methods for the early diagnosis of ECC are of prime importance to implement the appropriate preventive measures. Aim. To investigate the effects of the addition of early caries lesions (ECL) into WHO threshold caries detection methods on the prevalence of caries in primary teeth and the epidemiological profile of the studied population. Design. In total, 351 3-to 4-year-old preschoolers participated in this cross-sectional study. Clinical exams were conducted by one calibrated examiner using WHO and WHO + ECL criteria. During the exams, a mirror, a ball-ended probe, gauze, and an artificial light were used. The data were analysed by Wilcoxon and Mc-Nemar's tests (a = 0.05). Results. Good intra-examiner Kappa values at tooth /surface levels were obtained for WHO and WHO + ECL criteria (0.93 /0.87 and 0.75 /0.78, respectively). The dmfs scores were significantly higher (P < 0.05) when WHO + ECL criteria were used. ECLs were the predominant caries lesions in the majority of teeth. Conclusions. The results strongly suggest that the WHO + ECL diagnosis method could be used to identify ECL in young children under field conditions, increasing the prevalence and classification of caries activity and providing valuable information for the early establishment of preventive measures.

Myocardial infarction and post-traumatic stress disorder: frequency, outcome, and atherosclerotic mechanisms

BACKGROUND: Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) may develop in the aftermath of an acute myocardial infarction (MI). Whether PTSD is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) is elusive. The biological mechanisms linking PTSD with atherosclerosis are unclear. DESIGN: A critical review of 31 studies in the English language pursuing three aims: (i) to estimate the prevalence of PTSD in post-MI patients; (ii) to investigate the association of PTSD with cardiovascular endpoints; and (iii) to search for low-grade systemic inflammatory changes in PTSD pertinent to atherosclerosis. METHODS: We located studies by PubMed electronic library search and through checking the bibliographies of these sources. RESULTS: The weighted prevalence of PTSD after MI was 14.7% (range 0-25%; a total of 13 studies and 827 post-MI patients). Two studies reported a prospective association between PTSD and an increased risk of cardiovascular readmission in post-MI patients and of cardiovascular mortality in combat veterans, respectively. In a total of 11 studies, patients with PTSD had increased rates of physician-rated and self-reported cardiovascular diseases. Various cytokines and C-reactive protein were investigated in a total of seven studies suggesting that PTSD confers a pro-inflammatory state. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing evidence suggests that PTSD specifically related to MI develops considerably frequently in post-MI patients. More research is needed in larger cohorts applying a population design to substantiate findings suggesting PTSD is an atherogenic risk factor and to understand better the suspected behavioural and biological mechanisms involved.