Mechanisms of drought-induced population decline in an endangered wallaby

The bridled nailtail wallaby is restricted to one locality in central Queensland, Australia. The population declined severely during a major drought between 1991 and 1995. We investigated age-specific covariates of survival and proximate causes of mortality from 1994 to 1997, using mark-recapture and radio-tagging techniques at two study sites. Using a matrix population model, we also modelled the effect of drought on age-specific survival and the intrinsic rate of population increase,;,. The only significant covariate of survival for adults was a measure of health unrelated to drought. Rainfall, food, predator activity, year, sex and habitat were not associated with variation in adult survival. Juvenile survival was negatively affected by drought, and predation was the proximate cause of most juvenile deaths. The matrix projection model showed that the observed juvenile survivorship during the drought was low enough to have produced a population decline, although fecundity and survival of other age classes was high throughout the study. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Breeding distribution and population decline of globally threatened Grey-necked Picathartes Picathartes oreas in Mbam Minkom Mountain Forest, southern Cameroon

The Grey-necked Picathartes Picathartes oreas, considered 'Vulnerable', is an enigmatic ground-dwelling bird endemic to the central African equatorial rainforest and belongs to a family of only two species. Its distribution extends to the two Endemic Bird Areas within Cameroon (Guinea Congo forest biome and Cameroon mountain arc) and its population is thought to be in decline throughout its range due to increasing habitat fragmentation and disturbance. During March-April 2003 and June and October 2007 we surveyed Grey-necked Picathartes in the north-western region of the Mbam Minkom Mountain Forest. In January-March 2006 we surveyed the entire mountain range and found go breeding and 24 potential breeding sites, mostly located on the western slopes. From the complete survey, we estimated the population at 44 breeding individuals. Populations were highest in the north-west region but had apparently declined from 40 breeding individuals in 2003 to 20 in 2007. This region accounted for 41% of the entire population on the mountain range during the 2006 survey. The Mbam Minkom/Kala Important Bird Area was designated based on the presence of Grey-necked Picathartes but is under high pressure of imminent destruction from agricultural encroachment and illegal timber exploitation. These results have important implications for decision making in delimiting forest boundaries and core areas for protection in the development of management plans. We suggest possible remedial actions, appropriate repeatable methods for future monitoring and opportunities for community involvement in the management and conservation of the site.

Habitat correlates of distribution and local population decline of the endemic Sardinian newt Euproctus platycephalus

Habitat-based statistical models relating patterns of presence and absence of species to habitat variables could be useful to resolve conservation-related problems and highlight the causes of population declines. In this paper, we apply such a modelling approach to an endemic amphibian, the Sardinian mountain newt Euproctus platycephalus, considered by IUCN a critically endangered species. Sardinian newts inhabit freshwater habitat in streams, small lakes and pools on the island of Sardinia (Italy). Reported declines of newt populations are not yet supported by quantitative data, however, they are perceived or suspected across the species' historical range. This study represents a first attempt trying to statistically relate habitat characteristics to Sardinian newt occurrence and persistence. Linear regression analysis revealed that newts are more likely to be found in sites with colder water temperature, less riparian vegetation and, marginally, absence of fish. The implications of the results for the conservation of the species are discussed, and suggestions for the short-term management of newt inhabited sites suggested. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Severe population decline of marsh deer, Blastocerus dichotomus (Cetartiodactyla: Cervidae), a threatened species, caused by flooding related to a hydroelectric power plant

Balancing power production and environmental conservation can be problematic. The objective of this study was to investigate the abundance of marsh deer in the Paraná River Basin, above the Sergio Motta (Porto Primavera) Dam, before and after the impact of the dam closure. A fixed-wing, flat window aircraft was used to survey study transects. Observations were recorded based on the distance sampling line transect method, assuming that the detection probability decreases with increased distance. The abundance of marsh deer in the survey region prior to flooding was estimated to be 974 individuals (CV = 0.23). The overall abundance dropped from 974 to 444 (CV = 0.26) individuals after flooding, an overall reduction of 54%. This reduction can be attributed to the direct impact of the flooding process, but it was likely exacerbated by indirect effects, such as increased disease, hunting, and reduction in food availability. Prior to flooding, the marsh deer was distributed widely throughout the dam's catchment area; however, the marsh deer habitat was almost completely destroyed by the flooding process. This situation highlights the need to implement management strategies that ensure the survival of the remaining fragmented population.

Reproductive Plasticity in the Speckled Crab Arenaeus cribrarius (Decapoda, Brachyura, Portunidae) Associated with a Population Decline

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Stocking of captive-bred fish can cause long-term population decline and gene pool replacement: predictions from a population dynamics model incorporating density-dependent mortality

Releasing captive-bred fish into natural environments (stocking) is common in fisheries worldwide. Although stocking is believed to have a positive effect on fish abundance over the short term, little is known about the long-term consequences of recurrent stocking and its influence on natural populations. In fact, there are growing concerns that genetically maladapted captive-bred fish can eventually reduce the abundance of natural population. In this study, we develop a simple model to quantitatively investigate the condition under which recurrent stocking has long-term effects on the natural population. Using a population dynamics model that takes into account a density-dependent recruitment, a gene responsible for the fitness difference between wild and captive-bred fish, and hybridization between them, we show that there is little or no contribution of recurrent stocking to the stock enhancement without a replacement of the wild gene pool by the captive-bred gene pool. The model further predicted that stocking of an intermediate level causes a reduction, rather than enhancement, of population size over the long term. The population decline due to stocking was attributed to the fitness disadvantage of captive-bred fish and strong overcompensation at recruitment stage. These results suggest that it would be difficult to simultaneously attain population size recovery and conservation of the local gene pool when captive-bred fish have fitness disadvantage in the wild, although caution is needed when applying the predictions from the simplified model to a specific species or population.

Mark-recapture may reveal more about ecology than about population trends: Demography of a threatened ghost bat (Macroderma gigas) population

Since European settlement in Australia, the geographical range of ghost bats (Macroderma gigas) has contracted northwards. Ghost bats are thought to occur in disjunct populations with little interpopulation migration, raising concerns over the current status and future viability of the southernmost colony, which has also been threatened by mining activity. To address these concerns, demographic parameters of the southernmost colony were estimated from a mark-recapture study conducted during 1975-1981. Female bats gave birth to a single young in late spring, but only 40% (22-70%, 95% CI) of females bred in their second year, increasing to 93% (87-97%, 95% CI) for females greater than or equal to 2 years old. Sixty-five percent of juveniles caught were female. Annual adult survival ranged between 0.57-0.77 for females and 0.43-0.66 for males, and was lowest over winter-spring and greatest in autumn-winter. Juvenile survival for the first year ranged between 0.35-0.46 for females and 0.29-0.42 for males. Adult survival varied among seasons, was negatively associated with rainfall, but was not associated with temperature beyond being lower in late winter. Poor survival may result from the inferior daytime roosts that bats must use if water seepage forces them to leave their normal roosts. Although these age-specific rates of fecundity and survival suggested a declining population, mark-recapture estimates of the population trend indicated stability over the study period. Counts at daytime roosts also suggested a population decline, but were considered unreliable because of an increasing tendency of bats to avoid detection. It is therefore likely that some assumptions in estimating survival were violated. These results provide a caution against the uncritical use of population projections derived from mark-recapture estimates of demographic parameters, and the use of untested indices as the basis for conservation decisions.

Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics

In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

Persistent unequal sex ratio in a population of grayling (salmonidae) and possible role of temperature increase.

In some fishes, water chemistry or temperature affects sex determination or creates sex-specific selection pressures. The resulting population sex ratios are hard to predict from laboratory studies if the environmental triggers interact with other factors, whereas in field studies, singular observations of unusual sex ratios may be particularly prone to selective reporting. Long-term monitoring largely avoids these problems. We studied a population of grayling (Thymallus thymallus) in Lake Thun, Switzerland, that has been monitored since 1948. Samples of spawning fish have been caught about 3 times/week around spawning season, and water temperature at the spawning site has been continuously recorded since 1970. We used scale samples collected in different years to determine the average age of spawners (for life-stage specific analyses) and to identify the cohort born in 2003 (an extraordinarily warm year). Recent tissue samples were genotyped on microsatellite markers to test for genetic bottlenecks in the past and to estimate the genetically effective population size (N(e) ). Operational sex ratios changed from approximately 65% males before 1993 to approximately 85% males from 1993 to 2011. Sex ratios correlated with the water temperatures the fish experienced in their first year of life. Sex ratios were best explained by the average temperature juvenile fish experienced during their first summer. Grayling abundance is declining, but we found no evidence of a strong genetic bottleneck that would explain the apparent lack of evolutionary response to the unequal sex ratio. Results of other studies show no evidence of endocrine disruptors in the study area. Our findings suggest temperature affects population sex ratio and thereby contributes to population decline. Persistencia de Proporción de Sexos Desigual en una Población de Tímalos (Salmonidae) y el Posible Papel del Incremento de la Temperatura.

Identification of Putative Wintering Areas and Ecological Determinants of Population Dynamics of Common House-Martin (Delichon urbicum) and Common Swift (Apus apus) Breeding in Northern Italy

To identify the causes of population decline in migratory birds, researchers must determine the relative influence of environmental changes on population dynamics while the birds are on breeding grounds, wintering grounds, and en route between the two. This is problematic when the wintering areas of specific populations are unknown. Here, we first identified the putative wintering areas of Common House-Martin (Delichon urbicum) and Common Swift (Apus apus) populations breeding in northern Italy as those areas, within the wintering ranges of these species, where the winter Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which may affect winter survival, best predicted annual variation in population indices observed in the breeding grounds in 1992–2009. In these analyses, we controlled for the potentially confounding effects of rainfall in the breeding grounds during the previous year, which may affect reproductive success; the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO), which may account for climatic conditions faced by birds during migration; and the linear and squared term of year, which account for nonlinear population trends. The areas thus identified ranged from Guinea to Nigeria for the Common House-Martin, and were located in southern Ghana for the Common Swift. We then regressed annual population indices on mean NDVI values in the putative wintering areas and on the other variables, and used Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and hierarchical partitioning (HP) of variance to assess their relative contribution to population dynamics. We re-ran all the analyses using NDVI values at different spatial scales, and consistently found that our population of Common House-Martin was primarily affected by spring rainfall (43%–47.7% explained variance) and NDVI (24%–26.9%), while the Common Swift population was primarily affected by the NDVI (22.7%–34.8%). Although these results must be further validated, currently they are the only hypotheses about the wintering grounds of the Italian populations of these species, as no Common House-Martin and Common Swift ringed in Italy have been recovered in their wintering ranges.

Stability of a Seabird Population in the Presence of an Introduced Predator

We hypothesized that although large populations may appear able to withstand predation and disturbance, added stochasticity in population growth rate (λ) increases the risk of dramatic population declines. Approximately half of the Aleutian Islands' population of Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla) breed at one large colony at Kiska Island in the presence of introduced Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) whose population erupts periodically. We evaluated two management plans, do nothing or eradicate rats, for this colony, and performed stochastic elasticity analysis to focus future research and management. Our results indicated that Least Auklets breeding at Kiska Island had the lowest absolute value of growth rate and more variable λ's (neither statistically significant) during 2001-2010, when compared with rat-free colonies at Buldir and Kasatochi islands. We found variability in the annual proportional change in population size among islands with Kiska Island having the fastest rate of decline, 78% over 20 years. Under the assumption that the eradication of rats would result in vital rates similar to those observed at rat-free Buldir and Kasatochi islands, we found the projected population decline decreased from 78% to 24% over 20 years. Overall, eradicating rats at Kiska Island is not likely to increase Least Auklet vital rates, but will decrease the amount of variation in λ, resulting in a significantly slower rate of population decline. We recommend the eradication of rats from Kiska Island to decrease the probability of dramatic population declines and ensure the future persistence of this important colony.

Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population

There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations remains very limited and biased towards species from temperate regions. Here, we report the response to changing climate in a tropical wild bird population using a long-term dataset on a formerly critically endangered island endemic, the Mauritius kestrel. We show that the frequency of spring rainfall affects the timing of breeding, with birds breeding later in wetter springs. Delays in breeding have consequences in terms of reduced reproductive success as birds get exposed to risks associated with adverse climatic conditions later on in the breeding season, which reduce nesting success. These results, combined with the fact that frequency of spring rainfall has increased by about 60 per cent in our study area since 1962, imply that climate change is exposing birds to the stochastic risks of late reproduction by causing them to start breeding relatively late in the season.

Habitat split and the global decline of amphibians

The worldwide decline in amphibians has been attributed to several causes, especially habitat loss and disease. We identified a further factor, namely habitat split- defined as human- induced disconnection between habitats used by different life history stages of a species- which forces forest- associated amphibians with aquatic larvae to make risky breeding migrations between suitable aquatic and terrestrial habitats. In the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, we found that habitat split negatively affects the richness of species with aquatic larvae but not the richness of species with terrestrial development ( the latter can complete their life cycle inside forest remnants). This mechanism helps to explain why species with aquatic larvae have the highest incidence of population decline. These findings reinforce the need for the conservation and restoration of riparian vegetation.