Misleading Population Estimates: Biases and Consistency of Visual Surveys and Matrix Modelling in the Endangered Bearded Vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.

Population Assessment of an Endangered Shorebird: the Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) in Eastern Canada

Small, at-risk populations are those for which accurate demographic information is most crucial to conservation and recovery, but also where data collection is constrained by logistical challenges and small sample sizes. Migratory animals in particular may experience a wide range of threats to survival and reproduction throughout each annual cycle, and identification of life stages most critical to persistence may be especially difficult for these populations. The endangered eastern Canadian breeding population of Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) was estimated at only 444 adults in 2005, and extensive effort has been invested in conservation activities, reproductive monitoring, and marking of individual birds, providing a comprehensive data set on population dynamics since 1998. We used these data to build a matrix projection model for two Piping Plover population segments that nest in eastern Canada in order to estimate both deterministic and stochastic rates of population growth (λd and λs, respectively). Annual population censuses suggested moderate growth in abundance between 1998–2003, but vital rate estimates indicated that this temporary growth may be replaced by declines in the long term, both in southern Nova Scotia (λd = 1.0043, λs = 0.9263) and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (λd = 0.9651, λs = 0.8214). Nonetheless, confidence intervals on λ estimates were relatively wide, highlighting remaining uncertainty in future population trajectories. Differences in projected growth between regions appear to be driven by low estimated juvenile post-fledging survival in the Gulf, but threats to juveniles of both population segments following departure from nesting beaches remain unidentified. Similarly, λ in both population segments was particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival as expected for most migratory birds, but very little is understood about the threats to Piping Plover survival during migration and overwintering. Consequently, we suggest that future recovery efforts for these and other vulnerable migrants should quantify and manage the largely unknown sources of both adult and juvenile mortality during non-breeding seasons while maintaining current levels of nesting habitat protection.

Model complexity affects transient population dynamics following a dispersal event: A case study with pea aphids

Stage-structured population models predict transient population dynamics if the population deviates from the stable stage distribution. Ecologists’ interest in transient dynamics is growing because populations regularly deviate from the stable stage distribution, which can lead to transient dynamics that differ significantly from the stable stage dynamics. Because the structure of a population matrix (i.e., the number of life-history stages) can influence the predicted scale of the deviation, we explored the effect of matrix size on predicted transient dynamics and the resulting amplification of population size. First, we experimentally measured the transition rates between the different life-history stages and the adult fecundity and survival of the aphid, Acythosiphon pisum. Second, we used these data to parameterize models with different numbers of stages. Third, we compared model predictions with empirically measured transient population growth following the introduction of a single adult aphid. We find that the models with the largest number of life-history stages predicted the largest transient population growth rates, but in all models there was a considerable discrepancy between predicted and empirically measured transient peaks and a dramatic underestimation of final population sizes. For instance, the mean population size after 20 days was 2394 aphids compared to the highest predicted population size of 531 aphids; the predicted asymptotic growth rate (λmax) was consistent with the experiments. Possible explanations for this discrepancy are discussed. Includes 4 supplemental files.

Modelling life history strategies with capture-recapture data: Evolutionary demography of the water skink Eulamprus tympanum

Matrix population models, elasticity analysis and loop analysis can potentially provide powerful techniques for the analysis of life histories. Data from a capture-recapture study on a population of southern highland water skinks (Eulamprus tympanum) were used to construct a matrix population model. Errors in elasticities were calculated by using the parametric bootstrap technique. Elasticity and loop analyses were then conducted to identify the life history stages most important to fitness. The same techniques were used to investigate the relative importance of fast versus slow growth, and rapid versus delayed reproduction. Mature water skinks were long-lived, but there was high immature mortality. The most sensitive life history stage was the subadult stage. It is suggested that life history evolution in E. tympanum may be strongly affected by predation, particularly by birds. Because our population declined over the study, slow growth and delayed reproduction were the optimal life history strategies over this period. Although the techniques of evolutionary demography provide a powerful approach for the analysis of life histories, there are formidable logistical obstacles in gathering enough high-quality data for robust estimates of the critical parameters.

Development and implementation of the population Fisher information matrix for the evaluation of population pharmacokinetic designs.

In population pharmacokinetic studies, the precision of parameter estimates is dependent on the population design. Methods based on the Fisher information matrix have been developed and extended to population studies to evaluate and optimize designs. In this paper we propose simple programming tools to evaluate population pharmacokinetic designs. This involved the development of an expression for the Fisher information matrix for nonlinear mixed-effects models, including estimation of the variance of the residual error. We implemented this expression as a generic function for two software applications: S-PLUS and MATLAB. The evaluation of population designs based on two pharmacokinetic examples from the literature is shown to illustrate the efficiency and the simplicity of this theoretic approach. Although no optimization method of the design is provided, these functions can be used to select and compare population designs among a large set of possible designs, avoiding a lot of simulations.

Quantitave and qualitative interferences of pentoxifillyne on hepatic Schistosoma mansoni granulomas: effects on extracellular matrix and eosinophil population

Mast cells and eosinophils actively participate in tissue repair and are prominent components of Schistosoma mansoni granulomas. Since pentoxifillyne (PTX) is an immunomodulatory and antifibrotic substance, we aimed to characterize, by morphological techniques, the effect of this drug on fibrosis developed inside murine hepatic schistosomal granulomatous reaction, beyond the quantification of eosinophil and mast cell populations. The drug (1 mg/100 g animal weight) was administrated from 35 to 90 days post-infection, when the animals were killed. The intragranulomatous interstitial collagen network was analyzed by confocal laser scanning microscopy, the number of eosinophils and mast cells was quantified and the results were validated by t-student test. Treatment did not interfere on the granuloma evolution but caused a significant decrease in the total and involutive number of hepatic granulomas (p = 0.01 and 0.001, respectivelly), and in the intragranulomatous accumulation of eosinophils (p = 0.0001). Otherwise, the number of mast cells was not significantly altered (p = 0.9); however, it was positively correlated with the number of granulomatous structures (r = 0.955). In conclusion, PTX does not affect development and collagen deposition in S. mansoni murine granuloma, but decreases the intragranulomatous eosinophil accumulation possibly due to its immunomodulatory capability, interfering in cellular recruitment and/or differentiation.

1D.03: Inactive matrix GLA protein is associated with renal resistive index in a population-based study

OBJECTIVE: Renal resistive index (RRI) varies directly with renal vascular stiffness and pulse pressure. RRI correlates positively with arteriolosclerosis in damaged kidneys and predicts progressive renal dysfunction. Matrix Gla-protein (MGP) is a vascular calcification inhibitor that needs vitamin K to be activated. Inactive MGP, known as desphospho-uncarboxylated MGP (dp-ucMGP), can be measured in plasma and has been associated with various cardiovascular (CV) markers, CV outcomes and mortality. In this study we hypothesize that increased RRI is associated with high levels of dp-ucMGP. DESIGN AND METHOD: We recruited participants via a multi-center family-based cross-sectional study in Switzerland exploring the role of genes and kidney hemodynamics in blood pressure regulation. Dp-ucMGP was quantified in plasma samples by sandwich ELISA. Renal doppler sonography was performed using a standardized protocol to measure RRIs on 3 segmental arteries in each kidney. The mean of the 6 measures was reported. Multiple regression analysis was performed to estimate associations between RRI and dp-ucMGP adjusting for sex, age, pulse pressure, mean pressure, renal function and other CV risk factors. RESULTS: We included 1035 participants in our analyses. Mean values were 0.64 ± 0.06 for RRI and 0.44 ± 0.21 (nmol/L) for dp-ucMGP. RRI was positively associated with dp-ucMGP both before and after adjustment for sex, age, body mass index, pulse pressure, mean pressure, heart rate, renal function, low and high density lipoprotein, smoking status, diabetes, blood pressure and cholesterol lowering drugs, and history of CV disease (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: RRI is independently and positively associated with high levels of dp-ucMGP after adjustment for pulse pressure and common CV risk factors. Further studies are needed to determine if vitamin K supplementation can have a positive effect on renal vascular stiffness and kidney function.

Inactive Matrix Gla-Protein is associated with arterial stiffness in an adult population-based study

Increased pulse wave velocity (PWV) is a marker of aortic stiffness and an independent predictor of mortality. Matrix Gla-protein (MGP) is a vascular calcification inhibitor that needs vitamin K to be activated. Inactive MGP, known as desphospho-uncarboxylated MGP (dp-ucMGP), can be measured in plasma and has been associated with various cardiovascular markers, cardiovascular outcomes, and mortality. In this study, we hypothesized that high levels of dp-ucMGP are associated with increased PWV. We recruited participants via a multicenter family-based cross-sectional study in Switzerland. Dp-ucMGP was quantified in plasma by sandwich ELISA. Aortic PWV was determined by applanation tonometry using carotid and femoral pulse waveforms. Multiple regression analysis was performed to estimate associations between PWV and dp-ucMGP adjusting for age, renal function, and other cardiovascular risk factors. We included 1001 participants in our analyses (475 men and 526 women). Mean values were 7.87±2.10 m/s for PWV and 0.43±0.20 nmol/L for dp-ucMGP. PWV was positively associated with dp-ucMGP both before and after adjustment for sex, age, body mass index, height, systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP), heart rate, renal function, low- and high-density lipoprotein, glucose, smoking status, diabetes mellitus, BP and cholesterol lowering drugs, and history of cardiovascular disease (P≤0.01). In conclusion, high levels of dp-ucMGP are independently and positively associated with arterial stiffness after adjustment for common cardiovascular risk factors, renal function, and age. Experimental studies are needed to determine whether vitamin K supplementation slows arterial stiffening by increasing MGP carboxylation.

Inactive matrix gla-protein is associated with arterial atiffness in an adult population-based study

La vitesse de l'onde de pouls (VOP) est la méthode pour mesurer la rigidité artérielle la plus répandue et la plus validée. C'est aussi un prédicteur indépendant de la mortalité. La Matrix Gla- protein (MGP) est une protein qui inhibe les calcifications vasculaires. MGP nécessite une enzyme dérivée de la vitamine K pour être activée, à l'instar de certains facteurs de coagulation. La forme inactive de MGP, connue sous le terme de « desphospho-uncarboxylated MGP » (dp-ucMGP), peut-être mesurée dans le plasma. Plus les apports de vitamine K sont importants plus les taux de dp-ucMGP diminue. Les taux de dp-ucMGP ont déjà été étudiés et associés à différents marqueurs cardiovasculaires (CV), aux événements CV et à la mortalité. Dans notre travail de recherche nous avons émis l'hypothèse que des taux élevés de dp-ucMGP seraient associés à une VOP élevée. Nous avons recruté les participants à travers une étude multicentrique suisse (SKIPOGH). Le processus de recrutement ciblait des familles dans lesquelles plusieurs membres étaient d'accord de participer. Nous avons mesuré la dp-ucMGP plasmatique grâce à la méthode immuno-enzymatique « ELISA ». Concernant la VOP, nous avons mesuré les ondes de pression au niveau carotidien et fémorale grâce à un tonomètre et calculer la vitesse de leurs propagations. Par la suite nous avons utilisé un modèle de régression linéaire multiple afin de déterminer le lien entre la VOP et dp- ucMGP. Le modèle était ajusté pour l'âge, la fonction rénale et les risques CV classiques. Nous avons inclut 1001 participants dans les analyses (475 hommes et 526 femmes). La valeur moyenne de la VOP était de 7.87 ± 2.10 (m/s) et celle de dp-ucMGP de 0.43 ± 0.20 (nmol/L). La VOP était positivement et significativement associée à dp-ucMGP avant comme après ajustement pour le sexe, l'âge, l'indice de masse corporel, la taille, la pression artérielle systolique et diastolique, la fréquence cardiaque, la fonction rénale, les taux de cholestérol (LDL, HDL), la glycémie, la consommation de tabac, la présence d'un diabète, l'utilisation de médicaments antihypertenseurs ou hypolipémiants et la présence d'antécédents CV (P<0.01). En conclusion, des taux élevés de dp-ucMGP sont positivement et indépendamment associés à la rigidité artérielle après ajustement pour les facteurs de risques CV traditionnels, la fonction rénale et l'âge. Des études expérimentales sont nécessaires afin de déterminer si une supplémentation en vitamine K permet de ralentir l'avancement de la rigidité artérielle grâce à son activation de la MGP.

Inactive Matrix Gla-Protein Is Associated With Arterial Stiffness in an Adult Population-Based Study

Increased pulse wave velocity (PWV) is a marker of aortic stiffness and an independent predictor of mortality. Matrix Gla-protein (MGP) is a vascular calcification inhibitor that needs vitamin K to be activated. Inactive MGP, known as desphospho-uncarboxylated MGP (dp-ucMGP), can be measured in plasma and has been associated with various cardiovascular markers, cardiovascular outcomes, and mortality. In this study, we hypothesized that high levels of dp-ucMGP are associated with increased PWV. We recruited participants via a multicenter family-based cross-sectional study in Switzerland. Dp-ucMGP was quantified in plasma by sandwich ELISA. Aortic PWV was determined by applanation tonometry using carotid and femoral pulse waveforms. Multiple regression analysis was performed to estimate associations between PWV and dp-ucMGP adjusting for age, renal function, and other cardiovascular risk factors. We included 1001 participants in our analyses (475 men and 526 women). Mean values were 7.87±2.10 m/s for PWV and 0.43±0.20 nmol/L for dp-ucMGP. PWV was positively associated with dp-ucMGP both before and after adjustment for sex, age, body mass index, height, systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP), heart rate, renal function, low- and high-density lipoprotein, glucose, smoking status, diabetes mellitus, BP and cholesterol lowering drugs, and history of cardiovascular disease (P≤0.01). In conclusion, high levels of dp-ucMGP are independently and positively associated with arterial stiffness after adjustment for common cardiovascular risk factors, renal function, and age. Experimental studies are needed to determine whether vitamin K supplementation slows arterial stiffening by increasing MGP carboxylation.

1D.03: Inactive Matrix Gla Protein is Assocated with Renal Resistive Index in a Population-Based Study

OBJECTIVE Renal resistive index (RRI) varies directly with renal vascular stiffness and pulse pressure. RRI correlates positively with arteriolosclerosis in damaged kidneys and predicts progressive renal dysfunction. Matrix Gla-protein (MGP) is a vascular calcification inhibitor that needs vitamin K to be activated. Inactive MGP, known as desphospho-uncarboxylated MGP (dp-ucMGP), can be measured in plasma and has been associated with various cardiovascular (CV) markers, CV outcomes and mortality. In this study we hypothesize that increased RRI is associated with high levels of dp-ucMGP. DESIGN AND METHOD We recruited participants via a multi-center family-based cross-sectional study in Switzerland exploring the role of genes and kidney hemodynamics in blood pressure regulation. Dp-ucMGP was quantified in plasma samples by sandwich ELISA. Renal doppler sonography was performed using a standardized protocol to measure RRIs on 3 segmental arteries in each kidney. The mean of the 6 measures was reported. Multiple regression analysis was performed to estimate associations between RRI and dp-ucMGP adjusting for sex, age, pulse pressure, mean pressure, renal function and other CV risk factors. RESULTS We included 1035 participants in our analyses. Mean values were 0.64 ± 0.06 for RRI and 0.44 ± 0.21 (nmol/L) for dp-ucMGP. RRI was positively associated with dp-ucMGP both before and after adjustment for sex, age, body mass index, pulse pressure, mean pressure, heart rate, renal function, low and high density lipoprotein, smoking status, diabetes, blood pressure and cholesterol lowering drugs, and history of CV disease (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS RRI is independently and positively associated with high levels of dp-ucMGP after adjustment for pulse pressure and common CV risk factors. Further studies are needed to determine if vitamin K supplementation can have a positive effect on renal vascular stiffness and kidney function.

Maximum likelihood estimation of a migration matrix and effective population sizes in n subpopulations by using a coalescent approach

A maximum likelihood estimator based on the coalescent for unequal migration rates and different subpopulation sizes is developed. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to investigate possible genealogies with branch lengths and with migration events. Properties of the new method are shown by using simulated data from a four-population n-island model and a source–sink population model. Our estimation method as coded in migrate is tested against genetree; both programs deliver a very similar likelihood surface. The algorithm converges to the estimates fairly quickly, even when the Markov chain is started from unfavorable parameters. The method was used to estimate gene flow in the Nile valley by using mtDNA data from three human populations.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to p inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For exam le, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously, These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency.

Mechanisms of drought-induced population decline in an endangered wallaby

The bridled nailtail wallaby is restricted to one locality in central Queensland, Australia. The population declined severely during a major drought between 1991 and 1995. We investigated age-specific covariates of survival and proximate causes of mortality from 1994 to 1997, using mark-recapture and radio-tagging techniques at two study sites. Using a matrix population model, we also modelled the effect of drought on age-specific survival and the intrinsic rate of population increase,;,. The only significant covariate of survival for adults was a measure of health unrelated to drought. Rainfall, food, predator activity, year, sex and habitat were not associated with variation in adult survival. Juvenile survival was negatively affected by drought, and predation was the proximate cause of most juvenile deaths. The matrix projection model showed that the observed juvenile survivorship during the drought was low enough to have produced a population decline, although fecundity and survival of other age classes was high throughout the study. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.