Modeling the effect of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) on the population viability of Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Onchorhynchus tshawytscha)

We estimated the impact of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) predation on winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) with a Bayesian population dynamics model using striped bass and winter-run chinook salmon population abundance data. Winter-run chinook salmon extinction and recovery probabilities under different future striped bass abundance levels were estimated by simulating from the posterior distribution of model parameters. The model predicts that if the striped bass population declines to 512,000 adults as expected in the absence of stocking, winter-run chinook salmon will have about a 28% chance of quasi-extinction (defined as three consecutive spawning runs of fewer than 200 adults) within 50 years. If stocking stabilizes the striped bass population at 700,000 adults, the predicted quasi-extinction probability is 30%. A more ambitious stocking program that maintains a population of 3 million adult striped bass would increase the predicted quasi-extinction probability to 55%. Extinction probability, but not recovery probability, was fairly insensitive to assumptions about density dependence. We conclude that winter-run chinook salmon face a serious extinction risk without augmentation of the striped bass population and that substantial increases in striped bass abundance could significantly increase the threat to winter-run chi-nook salmon if not mitigated by increasing winter chinook salmon survival in some other way.

Developing a growth-transition matrix for the stock assessment of the green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) off Maine

The green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) is important to the economy of Maine. It is the state’s fourth largest fishery by value. The fishery has experienced a continuous decline in landings since 1992 because of decreasing stock abundance. Because determining the age of sea urchins is often difficult, a formal stock assessment demands the development of a size-structured population dynamic model. One of the most important components in a size-structured model is a growth-transition matrix. We developed an approach for estimating the growth-transition matrix using von Bertalanffy growth parameters estimated in previous studies of the green sea urchin off Maine. This approach explicitly considers size-specific variations associated with yearly growth increments for these urchins. The proposed growth-transition matrix can be updated readily with new information on growth, which is important because changes in stock abundance and the ecosystem will likely result in changes in sea urchin key life history parameters including growth. This growth-transition matrix can be readily incorporated into the size-structured stock assessment model that has been developed for assessing the green sea urchin stock off Maine.

Population status, seasonal variation in abundance, and long-term population trends of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) at the South Farallon Islands, California

We examined seasonal and annual variation in numbers of Steller (northern) sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) at the South Farallon Islands from counts conducted weekly from 1974 to 1996. Numbers of adult and subadult males peaked during the breeding season (May–July), whereas numbers of adult females and immature individuals peaked during the breeding season and from late fall through early winter (September–December). The seasonal pattern varied significantly among years for all sexes and age classes. From 1977 to 1996, numbers present during the breeding season decreased by 5.9% per year for adult females and increased by 1.9% per year for subadult males. No trend in numbers of adult males was detected. Numbers of immature individuals also declined by 4.5% per year during the breeding season but increased by 5.0% per year from late fall through early winter. Maximum number of pups counted declined significantly through time, although few pups were produced at the South Farallon Islands. The ratio of adult females to adult males averaged 5.2:1 and declined significantly with each year, whereas no trend in the ratio of pups to adult females was discernible. Further studies are needed to determine if reduced numbers of adult females in recent years have resulted from reduced survival of juvenile or adult females or from changes in the geographic distribution of females.

Changes over time in the spatial distribution of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the Gulf of Alaska, 1984-1996

Triennial bottom trawl survey data from 1984 to 1996 were used to evaluate changes in the summer distribution of walleye pollock in the western and central Gulf of Alaska. Differences between several age groups of pollock were evaluated. Distribution was examined in relation to several physical characteristics, including bottom depth and distance from land. Interspecies associations were also analyzed with the Bray-Curtis clustering technique to better understand community structure. Our results indicated that although the population numbers decreased, high concentrations of pollock remained in the same areas during 1984–96. However, there was an increase in the number of stations where low-density pollock concentrations of all ages were observed, which resulted in a decrease in mean population density of pollock within the GOA region. Patterns emerging from our data suggested an alternative to Mac-Call’s “basin hypothesis” which states that as population numbers decrease, there should be a contraction of the population range to optimal habitats. During 1984–96 there was a concurrent precipitous decline in Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska. The results of our study suggest that decreases in the mean density of adult pollock, the main food in the Steller sea lion diet, combined with slight changes in the distribution of pollock (age-1 pollock in particular) in the mid-1980s, may have contributed to decreased foraging efficiency in Steller sea lions. Our results support the prevailing conceptual model for pollock ontogeny, although there is evidence that substantial spawning may also occur outside of Shelikof Strait.