The increased popularity of mopeds and motor scooters : exploring usage patterns and safety outcomes

Increased use of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) often underlies increases in the number of reported crashes, promoting research into PTW safety. PTW riders are overrepresented in crash and injury statistics relative to exposure and, as such, are considered vulnerable road users. PTW use has increased substantially over the last decade in many developed countries. One such country is Australia, where moped and scooter use has increased at a faster rate than motorcycle use in recent years. Increased moped use is particularly evident in the State of Queensland which is one of four Australian jurisdictions where moped riding is permitted for car licence holders and a motorcycle licence is not required. A moped is commonly a small motor scooter and is limited to a maximum design speed of 50 km/h and a maximum engine cylinder capacity of 50 cubic centimetres. Scooters exceeding either of these specifications are classed as motorcycles in all Australian jurisdictions. While an extensive body of knowledge exists on motorcycle safety, some of which is relevant to moped and scooter safety, the latter PTW types have received comparatively little focused research attention. Much of the research on moped safety to date has been conducted in Europe where they have been popular since the mid 20th century, while some studies have also been conducted in the United States. This research is of limited relevance to Australia due to socio-cultural, economic, regulatory and environmental differences. Moreover, while some studies have compared motorcycles to mopeds in terms of safety, no research to date has specifically examined the differences and similarities between mopeds and larger scooters, or between larger scooters and motorcycles. To address the need for a better understanding of moped and scooter use and safety, the current program of research involved three complementary studies designed to achieve the following aims: (1) develop better knowledge and understanding of moped and scooter usage trends and patterns; and (2) determine the factors leading to differences in moped, scooter and motorcycle safety. Study 1 involved six-monthly observations of PTW types in inner city parking areas of Queensland’s capital city, Brisbane, to monitor and quantify the types of PTW in use over a two year period. Study 2 involved an analysis of Queensland PTW crash and registration data, primarily comparing the police-reported crash involvement of mopeds, scooters and motorcycles over a five year period (N = 7,347). Study 3 employed both qualitative and quantitative methods to examine moped and scooter usage in two components: (a) four focus group discussions with Brisbane-based Queensland moped and scooter riders (N = 23); and (b) a state-wide survey of Queensland moped and scooter riders (N = 192). Study 1 found that of the PTW types parked in inner city Brisbane over the study period (N = 2,642), more than one third (36.1%) were mopeds or larger scooters. The number of PTWs observed increased at each six-monthly phase, but there were no significant changes in the proportions of PTW types observed across study phases. There were no significant differences in the proportions or numbers of PTW type observed by season. Study 2 revealed some important differences between mopeds, scooters and motorcycles in terms of safety and usage through analysis of crash and registration data. All Queensland PTW registrations doubled between 2001 and 2009, but there was an almost fifteen-fold increase in moped registrations. Mopeds subsequently increased as a proportion of Queensland registered PTWs from 1.2 percent to 8.8 percent over this nine year period. Moped and scooter crashes increased at a faster rate than motorcycle crashes over the five year study period from July 2003 to June 2008, reflecting their relatively greater increased usage. Crash rates per 10,000 registrations for the study period were only slightly higher for mopeds (133.4) than for motorcycles and scooters combined (124.8), but estimated crash rates per million vehicle kilometres travelled were higher for mopeds (6.3) than motorcycles and scooters (1.7). While the number of crashes increased for each PTW type over the study period, the rate of crashes per 10,000 registrations declined by 40 percent for mopeds compared with 22 percent for motorcycles and scooters combined. Moped and scooter crashes were generally less severe than motorcycle crashes and this was related to the particular crash characteristics of the PTW types rather than to the PTW types themselves. Compared to motorcycle and moped crashes, scooter crashes were less likely to be single vehicle crashes, to involve a speeding or impaired rider, to involve poor road conditions, or to be attributed to rider error. Scooter and moped crashes were more likely than motorcycle crashes to occur on weekdays, in lower speed zones and at intersections. Scooter riders were older on average (39) than moped (32) and motorcycle (35) riders, while moped riders were more likely to be female (36%) than scooter (22%) or motorcycle riders (7%). The licence characteristics of scooter and motorcycle riders were similar, with moped riders more likely to be licensed outside of Queensland and less likely to hold a full or open licence. The PTW type could not be identified in 15 percent of all cases, indicating a need for more complete recording of vehicle details in the registration data. The focus groups in Study 3a and the survey in Study 3b suggested that moped and scooter riders are a heterogeneous population in terms of demographic characteristics, riding experience, and knowledge and attitudes regarding safety and risk. The self-reported crash involvement of Study 3b respondents suggests that most moped and scooter crashes result in no injury or minor injury and are not reported to police. Study 3 provided some explanation for differences observed in Study 2 between mopeds and scooters in terms of crash involvement. On the whole, scooter riders were older, more experienced, more likely to have undertaken rider training and to value rider training programs. Scooter riders were also more likely to use protective clothing and to seek out safety-related information. This research has some important practical implications regarding moped and scooter use and safety. While mopeds and scooters are generally similar in terms of usage, and their usage has increased, scooter riders appear to be safer than moped riders due to some combination of superior skills and safer riding behaviour. It is reasonable to expect that mopeds and scooters will remain popular in Queensland in future and that their usage may further increase, along with that of motorcycles. Future policy and planning should consider potential options for encouraging moped riders to acquire better riding skills and greater safety awareness. While rider training and licensing appears an obvious potential countermeasure, the effectiveness of rider training has not been established and other options should also be strongly considered. Such options might include rider education and safety promotion, while interventions could also target other road users and urban infrastructure. Future research is warranted in regard to moped and scooter safety, particularly where the use of those PTWs has increased substantially from low levels. Research could address areas such as rider training and licensing (including program evaluations), the need for more detailed and reliable data (particularly crash and exposure data), protective clothing use, risks associated with lane splitting and filtering, and tourist use of mopeds. Some of this research would likely be relevant to motorcycle use and safety, as well as that of mopeds and scooters.

Co-evolution of content popularity and delivery in mobile P2P networks

Mobile P2P technology provides a scalable approach for content delivery to a large number of users on their mobile devices. In this work, we study the dissemination of a single item of content (e. g., an item of news, a song or a video clip) among a population of mobile nodes. Each node in the population is either a destination (interested in the content) or a potential relay (not yet interested in the content). There is an interest evolution process by which nodes not yet interested in the content (i.e., relays) can become interested (i.e., become destinations) on learning about the popularity of the content (i.e., the number of already interested nodes). In our work, the interest in the content evolves under the linear threshold model. The content is copied between nodes when they make random contact. For this we employ a controlled epidemic spread model. We model the joint evolution of the copying process and the interest evolution process, and derive joint fluid limit ordinary differential equations. We then study the selection of parameters under the content provider's control, for the optimization of various objective functions that aim at maximizing content popularity and efficient content delivery.

Co-Evolution of Content Spread and Popularity in Mobile Opportunistic Networks

We consider a setting in which a single item of content is disseminated in a population of mobile nodes by opportunistic copying when pairs of nodes come in radio contact. The nodes in the population may either be interested in receiving the content (referred to as destinations) or not yet interested in receiving the content (referred to as relays). We consider a model for the evolution of popularity, the process by which relays get converted into destinations. A key contribution of our work is to model and study the joint evolution of content popularity and its spread in the population. Copying the content to relay nodes is beneficial since they can help spread the content to destinations, and could themselves be converted into destinations. We derive a fluid limit for the joint evolution model and obtain optimal policies for copying to relay nodes in order to deliver content to a desired fraction of destinations, while limiting the fraction of relay nodes that get the content but never turn into destinations. We prove that a time-threshold policy is optimal for controlling the copying to relays, i.e., there is an optimal time-threshold up to which all opportunities for copying to relays are exploited, and after which relays are not copied to. We then utilize simulations and numerical evaluations to provide insights into the effects of various system parameters on the optimally controlled co-evolution model.

Popularity-Aware GreedyDual-Size Web Proxy Caching Algorithms

Web caching aims to reduce network traffic, server load, and user-perceived retrieval delays by replicating "popular" content on proxy caches that are strategically placed within the network. While key to effective cache utilization, popularity information (e.g. relative access frequencies of objects requested through a proxy) is seldom incorporated directly in cache replacement algorithms. Rather, other properties of the request stream (e.g. temporal locality and content size), which are easier to capture in an on-line fashion, are used to indirectly infer popularity information, and hence drive cache replacement policies. Recent studies suggest that the correlation between these secondary properties and popularity is weakening due in part to the prevalence of efficient client and proxy caches (which tend to mask these correlations). This trend points to the need for proxy cache replacement algorithms that directly capture and use popularity information. In this paper, we (1) present an on-line algorithm that effectively captures and maintains an accurate popularity profile of Web objects requested through a caching proxy, (2) propose a novel cache replacement policy that uses such information to generalize the well-known GreedyDual-Size algorithm, and (3) show the superiority of our proposed algorithm by comparing it to a host of recently-proposed and widely-used algorithms using extensive trace-driven simulations and a variety of performance metrics.

The continuing popularity of the neighbourhood and neighbourhood governance in the transition from the 'big state' to the 'big society' paradigm

The neighbourhood in both the UK and Europe continues to dominate thinking about the quality of life in local communities, representation and empowerment, and how local services can be delivered most effectively. For several decades a series of centrally funded programmes in neighbour- hood governance have targeted localities suffering deprivation and social exclusion in England. From these much can be learnt about the strengths and limitations of a local approach to achieving multiple objectives.We review the findings of a case study of neighbourhood governance in the City of Westminster and draw on evaluations of two national programmes. In the conclusions we discuss the problems arising from multiple objectives and examine the prospects for neighbourhood governance as the national paradigm moves away from `big state' solutions towards the less-well-defined `big society' approach and the reinvention of `localism'. While the rationale for neighbourhood governance may change, the `neighbourhood' as a site for service delivery and planning remains as important now as in the past.

Studi di data popularity nell'analisi distribuita su Grid dell'esperimento CMS a LHC

L’esperimento CMS a LHC ha raccolto ingenti moli di dati durante Run-1, e sta sfruttando il periodo di shutdown (LS1) per evolvere il proprio sistema di calcolo. Tra i possibili miglioramenti al sistema, emergono ampi margini di ottimizzazione nell’uso dello storage ai centri di calcolo di livello Tier-2, che rappresentano - in Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLCG)- il fulcro delle risorse dedicate all’analisi distribuita su Grid. In questa tesi viene affrontato uno studio della popolarità dei dati di CMS nell’analisi distribuita su Grid ai Tier-2. Obiettivo del lavoro è dotare il sistema di calcolo di CMS di un sistema per valutare sistematicamente l’ammontare di spazio disco scritto ma non acceduto ai centri Tier-2, contribuendo alla costruzione di un sistema evoluto di data management dinamico che sappia adattarsi elasticamente alle diversi condizioni operative - rimuovendo repliche dei dati non necessarie o aggiungendo repliche dei dati più “popolari” - e dunque, in ultima analisi, che possa aumentare l’“analysis throughput” complessivo. Il Capitolo 1 fornisce una panoramica dell’esperimento CMS a LHC. Il Capitolo 2 descrive il CMS Computing Model nelle sue generalità, focalizzando la sua attenzione principalmente sul data management e sulle infrastrutture ad esso connesse. Il Capitolo 3 descrive il CMS Popularity Service, fornendo una visione d’insieme sui servizi di data popularity già presenti in CMS prima dell’inizio di questo lavoro. Il Capitolo 4 descrive l’architettura del toolkit sviluppato per questa tesi, ponendo le basi per il Capitolo successivo. Il Capitolo 5 presenta e discute gli studi di data popularity condotti sui dati raccolti attraverso l’infrastruttura precedentemente sviluppata. L’appendice A raccoglie due esempi di codice creato per gestire il toolkit attra- verso cui si raccolgono ed elaborano i dati.

Predicting CMS datasets popularity with machine learning

In CMS è stato lanciato un progetto di Data Analytics e, all’interno di esso, un’attività specifica pilota che mira a sfruttare tecniche di Machine Learning per predire la popolarità dei dataset di CMS. Si tratta di un’osservabile molto delicata, la cui eventuale predizione premetterebbe a CMS di costruire modelli di data placement più intelligenti, ampie ottimizzazioni nell’uso dello storage a tutti i livelli Tiers, e formerebbe la base per l’introduzione di un solito sistema di data management dinamico e adattivo. Questa tesi descrive il lavoro fatto sfruttando un nuovo prototipo pilota chiamato DCAFPilot, interamente scritto in python, per affrontare questa sfida.

Breast cancer on the world wide web: cross sectional survey of quality of information and popularity of websites.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the characteristics of popular breast cancer related websites and whether more popular sites are of higher quality. DESIGN: The search engine Google was used to generate a list of websites about breast cancer. Google ranks search results by measures of link popularity---the number of links to a site from other sites. The top 200 sites returned in response to the query "breast cancer" were divided into "more popular" and "less popular" subgroups by three different measures of link popularity: Google rank and number of links reported independently by Google and by AltaVista (another search engine). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Type and quality of content. RESULTS: More popular sites according to Google rank were more likely than less popular ones to contain information on ongoing clinical trials (27% v 12%, P=0.01 ), results of trials (12% v 3%, P=0.02), and opportunities for psychosocial adjustment (48% v 23%, P<0.01). These characteristics were also associated with higher number of links as reported by Google and AltaVista. More popular sites by number of linking sites were also more likely to provide updates on other breast cancer research, information on legislation and advocacy, and a message board service. Measures of quality such as display of authorship, attribution or references, currency of information, and disclosure did not differ between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Popularity of websites is associated with type rather than quality of content. Sites that include content correlated with popularity may best meet the public's desire for information about breast cancer.