Pooling of forecasts

We consider forecasting using a combination, when no model coincides with a non-constant data generation process (DGP). Practical experience suggests that combining forecasts adds value, and can even dominate the best individual device. We show why this can occur when forecasting models are differentially mis-specified, and is likely to occur when the DGP is subject to location shifts. Moreover, averaging may then dominate over estimated weights in the combination. Finally, it cannot be proved that only non-encompassed devices should be retained in the combination. Empirical and Monte Carlo illustrations confirm the analysis.

The trading profitability of forecasts of the gilt–equity yield ratio

Research has highlighted the usefulness of the Gilt–Equity Yield Ratio (GEYR) as a predictor of UK stock returns. This paper extends recent studies by endogenising the threshold at which the GEYR switches from being low to being high or vice versa, thus improving the arbitrary nature of the determination of the threshold employed in the extant literature. It is observed that a decision rule for investing in equities or bonds, based on the forecasts from a regime switching model, yields higher average returns with lower variability than a static portfolio containing any combinations of equities and bonds. A closer inspection of the results reveals that the model has power to forecast when investors should steer clear of equities, although the trading profits generated are insufficient to outweigh the associated transaction costs.

In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular it delivers a zero-limiting mean-squared error if the number of forecasts and the number of post-sample time periods is sufficiently large. We also develop a zero-mean test for the average bias. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of this new technique in finite samples. An empirical exercise, based upon data from well known surveys is also presented. Overall, these results show promise for the bias-corrected average forecast.

A new error measure for forecasts of household-level, high resolution electrical energy consumption

As low carbon technologies become more pervasive, distribution network operators are looking to support the expected changes in the demands on the low voltage networks through the smarter control of storage devices. Accurate forecasts of demand at the single household-level, or of small aggregations of households, can improve the peak demand reduction brought about through such devices by helping to plan the appropriate charging and discharging cycles. However, before such methods can be developed, validation measures are required which can assess the accuracy and usefulness of forecasts of volatile and noisy household-level demand. In this paper we introduce a new forecast verification error measure that reduces the so called “double penalty” effect, incurred by forecasts whose features are displaced in space or time, compared to traditional point-wise metrics, such as Mean Absolute Error and p-norms in general. The measure that we propose is based on finding a restricted permutation of the original forecast that minimises the point wise error, according to a given metric. We illustrate the advantages of our error measure using half-hourly domestic household electrical energy usage data recorded by smart meters and discuss the effect of the permutation restriction.

Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts

A comparison of the point forecasts and the probability distributions of inflation and output growth made by individual respondents to the US Survey of Professional Forecasters indicates that the two sets of forecasts are sometimes inconsistent. We evaluate a number of possible explanations, and find that not all forecasters update their histogram forecasts as new information arrives. This is supported by the finding that the point forecasts are more accurate than the histograms in terms of first-moment prediction.

Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts

Existing empirical evidence has frequently observed that professional forecasters are conservative and display herding behaviour. Whilst a large number of papers have considered equities as well as macroeconomic series, few have considered the accuracy of forecasts in alternative asset classes such as real estate. We consider the accuracy of forecasts for the UK commercial real estate market over the period 1999-2011. The results illustrate that forecasters display a tendency to under-estimate growth rates during strong market conditions and over-estimate when the market is performing poorly. This conservatism not only results in smoothed estimates but also implies that forecasters display herding behaviour. There is also a marked difference in the relative accuracy of capital and total returns versus rental figures. Whilst rental growth forecasts are relatively accurate, considerable inaccuracy is observed with respect to capital value and total returns.

Characteristics of foot structure and footwear associated with hallux valgus : a systematic review

Objective Factors associated with the development of hallux valgus (HV) are multifactorial and remain unclear. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate characteristics of foot structure and footwear associated with HV. Design Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, and CINAHL) were searched to December 2010. Cross-sectional studies with a valid definition of HV and a non-HV comparison group were included. Two independent investigators quality rated all included papers. Effect sizes and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated (standardized mean differences (SMDs) for continuous data and risk ratios (RRs) for dichotomous data). Where studies were homogeneous, pooling of SMDs was conducted using random effects models. Results A total of 37 papers (34 unique studies) were quality rated. After exclusion of studies without reported measurement reliability for associated factors, data were extracted and analysed from 16 studies reporting results for 45 different factors. Significant factors included: greater first intermetatarsal angle (pooled SMD = 1.5, CI: 0.88–2.1), longer first metatarsal (pooled SMD = 1.0, CI: 0.48–1.6), round first metatarsal head (RR: 3.1–5.4), and lateral sesamoid displacement (RR: 5.1–5.5). Results for clinical factors (e.g., first ray mobility, pes planus, footwear) were less conclusive regarding their association with HV. Conclusions Although conclusions regarding causality cannot be made from cross-sectional studies, this systematic review highlights important factors to monitor in HV assessment and management. Further studies with rigorous methodology are warranted to investigate clinical factors associated with HV.

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of surgical site infections following primary total hip arthroplasty

Background Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a commonly performed procedure and numbers are increasing with ageing populations. One of the most serious complications in THA are surgical site infections (SSIs), caused by pathogens entering the wound during the procedure. SSIs are associated with a substantial burden for health services, increased mortality and reduced functional outcomes in patients. Numerous approaches to preventing these infections exist but there is no gold standard in practice and the cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies is largely unknown. Objectives The aim of this project was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce deep surgical site infections following total hip arthroplasty in Australia. The objectives were: 1. Identification of competing strategies or combinations of strategies that are clinically relevant to the control of SSI related to hip arthroplasty 2. Evidence synthesis and pooling of results to assess the volume and quality of evidence claiming to reduce the risk of SSI following total hip arthroplasty 3. Construction of an economic decision model incorporating cost and health outcomes for each of the identified strategies 4. Quantification of the effect of uncertainty in the model 5. Assessment of the value of perfect information among model parameters to inform future data collection Methods The literature relating to SSI in THA was reviewed, in particular to establish definitions of these concepts, understand mechanisms of aetiology and microbiology, risk factors, diagnosis and consequences as well as to give an overview of existing infection prevention measures. Published economic evaluations on this topic were also reviewed and limitations for Australian decision-makers identified. A Markov state-transition model was developed for the Australian context and subsequently validated by clinicians. The model was designed to capture key events related to deep SSI occurring within the first 12 months following primary THA. Relevant infection prevention measures were selected by reviewing clinical guideline recommendations combined with expert elicitation. Strategies selected for evaluation were the routine use of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) versus no use of antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or in combination with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) or laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR). The best available evidence for clinical effect size and utility parameters was harvested from the medical literature using reproducible methods. Queensland hospital data were extracted to inform patients’ transitions between model health states and related costs captured in assigned treatment codes. Costs related to infection prevention were derived from reliable hospital records and expert opinion. Uncertainty of model input parameters was explored in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses and the value of perfect information was estimated. Results The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a health services perspective using a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 THA patients aged 65 years. The baseline rate of deep SSI was 0.96% within one year of a primary THA. The routine use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was highly cost-effective and resulted in cost savings of over $1.6m whilst generating an extra 163 QALYs (without consideration of uncertainty). Deterministic and probabilistic analysis (considering uncertainty) identified antibiotic prophylaxis combined with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) to be the most cost-effective strategy. Using AP & ABC generated the highest net monetary benefit (NMB) and an incremental $3.1m NMB compared to only using antibiotic prophylaxis. There was a very low error probability that this strategy might not have the largest NMB (<5%). Not using antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or using both antibiotic prophylaxis combined with laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR) resulted in worse health outcomes and higher costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model was sensitive to the initial cohort starting age and the additional costs of ABC but the best strategy did not change, even for extreme values. The cost-effectiveness improved for a higher proportion of cemented primary THAs and higher baseline rates of deep SSI. The value of perfect information indicated that no additional research is required to support the model conclusions. Conclusions Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalised patients, save lives and enhance resource allocation. By implementing a more beneficial infection control strategy, scarce health care resources can be used more efficiently to the benefit of all members of society. The results of this project provide Australian policy makers with key information about how to efficiently manage risks of infection in THA.

The role of immunoglobulins and their transporters in urogenital Chlamydial infections

Chlamydia trachomatis infections of the male and female reproductive tracts are the world's leading sexually transmitted bacterial disease, and can lead to damaging pathology, scarring and infertility. The resolution of chlamydial infection requires the development of adaptive immune responses to infection, and includes cell-mediated and humoral immunity. Whilst cluster of differentiation (CD)4+ T cells are known to be essential in clearance of infection [1], they are also associated with immune cell infiltration, autoimmunity and infertility in the testes [2-3]. Conversely, antibodies are less associated with inflammation, are readily transported into the reproductive tracts, and can offer lumenal neutralization of chlamydiae prior to infection. Antibodies, or immunoglobulins (Ig), play a supportive role in the resolution of chlamydial infections, and this thesis sought to define the function of IgA and IgG, against a variety of chlamydial antigens expressed during the intracellular and extracellular stages of the chlamydial developmental cycle. Transport of IgA and IgG into the mucosal lumen is facilitated by receptor-mediated transcytosis yet the expression profile (under normal conditions and during urogenital chlamydial infection) of the polymeric immunoglobulin receptor (pIgR) and the neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) remains unknown. The expression profile of pIgR and FcRn in the murine male reproductive tract was found to be polarized to the lower and upper reproductive tract tissues respectively. This demonstrates that the two receptors have a tissue tropism, which must be considered when targeting pathogens that colonize different sites. In contrast, the expression of pIgR and FcRn in the female mouse was found to be distributed in both the upper and lower reproductive tracts. When urogenitally infected with Chlamydia muridarum, both male and female reproductive tracts up-regulated expression of pIgR and down-regulated expression of FcRn. Unsurprisingly, the up-regulation of pIgR increased the concentration of IgA in the lumen. However, down-regulation of FcRn, prevented IgG uptake and led to an increase or pooling of IgG in lumenal secretions. As previous studies have identified the importance of pIgR-mediated delivery of IgA, as well as the potential of IgA to bind and neutralize intracellular pathogens, IgA against a variety of chlamydial antigens was investigated. The protection afforded by IgA against the extracellular antigen major outer membrane protein (MOMP), was found to be dependent on pIgR expression in vitro and in vivo. It was also found that in the absence of pIgR, no protection was afforded to mice previously immunized with MOMP. The protection afforded from polyclonal IgA against the intracellular chlamydial antigens; inclusion membrane protein A (IncA), inclusion membrane proteins (IncMem) and secreted chlamydial protease-like activity factor (CPAF) were produced and investigated in vitro. Antigen-specific intracellular IgA was found to bind to the respective antigen within the infected cell, but did not significantly reduce inclusion formation (p > 0.05). This suggests that whilst IgA specific for the selected antigens was transported by pIgR to the chlamydial inclusion, it was unable to prevent growth. Similarly, immunization of male mice with intracellular chlamydial antigens (IncA or IncMem), followed by depletion CD4+ T cells, and subsequent urogenital C. muridarum challenge, provided minimal pIgR-mediated protection. Wild type male mice immunized with IncA showed a 57 % reduction (p < 0.05), and mice deficient in pIgR showed a 35 % reduction (p < 0.05) in reproductive tract chlamydial burden compared to control antigen, and in the absence of CD4+ T cells. This suggests that pIgR and secretory IgA (SIgA) were playing a protective role (21 % pIgR-mediated) in unison with another antigen-specific immune mechanism (36 %). Interestingly, IgA generated during a primary respiratory C. muridarum infection did not provide a significant amount of protection to secondary urogenital C. muridarum challenge. Together, these data suggest that IgA specific for an extracellular antigen (MOMP) can play a strong protective role in chlamydial infections, and that IgA targeting intracellular antigens is also effective but dependent on pIgR expression in tissues. However, whilst not investigated here, IgA targeting and blocking other intracellular chlamydial antigens, that are more essential for replication or type III secretion, may be more efficacious in subunit vaccines. Recently, studies have demonstrated that IgG can neutralize influenza virus by trafficking IgG-bound virus to lysosomes [4]. We sought to determine if this process could also traffic chlamydial antigens for degradation by lysosomes, despite Chlamydia spp. actively inhibiting fusion with the host endocytic pathway. As observed in pIgR-mediated delivery of anti-IncA IgA, FcRn similarly transported IgG specific for IncA which bound the inclusion membrane. Interestingly, FcRn-mediated delivery of anti-IncA IgG significantly decreased inclusion formation by 36 % (p < 0.01), and induced aberrant inclusion morphology. This suggests that unlike IgA, IgG can facilitate additional host cellular responses which affect the intracellular niche of chlamydial growth. Fluorescence microscopy revealed that IgG also bound the inclusion, but unlike influenza studies, did not induce the recruitment of lysosomes. Notably, anti-IncA IgG recruited sequestosomes to the inclusion membrane, markers of the ubiquitin/proteasome pathway and major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I loading. To determine if the protection against C. muridarum infection afforded by IncA IgG in vitro translated in vivo, wild type mice and mice deficient in functional FcRn and MHC-I, were immunized, depleted of CD4+, and urogenitally infected with C. muridarum. Unlike in pIgR-deficient mice, the protection afforded from IncA immunization was completely abrogated in mice lacking functional FcRn and MHC-I/CD8+. Thus, both anti-IncA IgA and IgG can bind the inclusion in a pIgR and FcRn-mediated manner, respectively. However, only IgG mediates a higher reduction in chlamydial infection in vitro and in vivo suggesting more than steric blocking of IncA had occurred. Unlike anti-MOMP IgA, which reduced chlamydial infection of epithelial cells and male mouse tissues, IgG was found to enhance infectivity in vitro, and in vivo. Opsonization of EBs with MOMP-IgG enhanced inclusion formation of epithelial cells in a MOMP-IgG dose-dependent and FcRn-dependent manner. When MOMP-IgG opsonized EBs were inoculated into the vagina of female mice, a small but non-significant (p > 0.05) enhancement of cervicovaginal C. muridarum shedding was observed three days post infection in mice with functional FcRn. Interestingly, infection with opsonized EBs reduced the intensity of the peak of infection (day six) but protracted the duration of infection by 60 % in wild type mice only. Infection with EBs opsonized in IgG also significantly increased (p < 0.05) hydrosalpinx formation in the oviducts and induced lymphocyte infiltration uterine horns. As MOMP is an immunodominant antigen, and is widely used in vaccines, the ability of IgG specific to extracellular chlamydial antigens to enhance infection and induce pathology needs to be considered. Together, these data suggest that immunoglobulins play a dichotomous role in chlamydial infections, and are dependent on antigen specificity, FcRn and pIgR expression. FcRn was found to be highly expressed in upper male reproductive tract, whilst pIgR was dominantly expressed in the lower reproductive tract. Conversely, female mice expressed FcRn and pIgR in both the lower and upper reproductive tracts. In response to a normal chlamydial infection, pIgR is up-regulated increasing secretory IgA release, but FcRn is down-regulated preventing IgG uptake. Similarly to other studies [5-6], we demonstrate that IgA and IgG generated during primary chlamydial infections plays a minor role in recall immunity, and that antigen-specific subunit vaccines can offer more protection. We also show that both IgA and IgG can be used to target intracellular chlamydial antigens, but that IgG is more effective. Finally, IgA against the extracellular antigen MOMP can afford protection, whist IgG plays a deleterious role by increasing infectivity and inducing damaging immunopathology. Further investigations with additional antigens or combination subunit vaccines will enhance our understanding the protection afforded by antibodies against intracellular and extracellular pathogenic antigens, and help improve the development of an efficacious chlamydial vaccine.

Pooled biological specimens for human biomonitoring of environmental chemicals : opportunities and limitations

Biomonitoring has become the ‘gold standard’ in assessing chemical exposures, and plays an important role in risk assessment. The pooling of biological specimens – combining multiple individual specimens into a single sample – can be used in biomonitoring studies to monitor levels of exposure and identify exposure trends, or to identify susceptible populations in a cost-effective manner. Pooled samples provide an estimate of central tendency, and may also reveal information about variation within the population. The development of a pooling strategy requires careful consideration of the type and number of samples collected, the number of pools required, and the number of specimens to combine per pool in order to maximize the type and robustness of the data. Creative pooling strategies can be used to explore exposure-outcome associations, and extrapolation from other larger studies can be useful in identifying elevated exposures in specific individuals. The use of pooled specimens is advantageous as it saves significantly on analytical costs, may reduce the time and resources required for recruitment, and in certain circumstances, allows quantification of samples approaching the limit of detection. In addition, use of pooled samples can provide population estimates while avoiding ethical difficulties that may be associated with reporting individual results.

Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland

Survey methods were engaged to measure the change in use and knowledge of climate information by pastoralists in western Queensland. The initial mail survey was undertaken in 2000-01 (n=43) and provided a useful benchmark of pastoralists climate knowledge. Two years of climate applications activities were completed and clients were re-surveyed in 2003 (n=49) to measure the change in knowledge and assess the effectiveness of the climate applications activities. Two methods were used to assess changes in client knowledge, viz., self-assessment and test questions. We found that the use of seasonal climate forecasts in decision making increased from 36% in 2001 (n=42) to 51% in 2003 (n=49) (P=0.07). The self-assessment technique was unsatisfactory as a measure of changing knowledge over short periods (1-3 years), but the test question technique was successful and indicated an improvement in climate knowledge among respondents. The increased levels of use of seasonal climate forecasts in management and improved knowledge was partly attributed to the climate applications activities of the project. Further, those who used seasonal forecasting (n=25) didn't understand key components of forecasts (e.g. probability, median) better than those who didn't use seasonal forecasts (n=24) (P>0.05). This identifies the potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation of forecasts among users and highlights the need for providers of forecasts to understand the difficulties and prepare simply written descriptions of forecasts and disseminate these with the maps showing probabilities. The most preferred means of accessing climate information were internet, email, 'The Season Ahead' newsletter and newspaper. The least preferred were direct contact with extension officers and attending field days and group meetings. Eighty-six percent of respondents used the internet and 67% used ADSL broadband internet (April 2003). Despite these findings, extension officers play a key role in preparing and publishing the information on the web, in emails and newsletters. We also believe that direct contact with extension officers trained in climate applications is desirable in workshop-like events to improve knowledge of the difficult concepts underpinning climate forecasts, which may then stimulate further adoption.

Early post-operative mortality after major lower limb amputation: A systematic review of population and regional based studies

OBJECTIVE: Lower limb amputation is often associated with a high risk of early post-operative mortality. Mortality rates are also increasingly being put forward as a possible benchmark for surgical performance. The primary aim of this systematic review is to investigate early post-operative mortality following a major lower limb amputation in population/regional based studies, and reported factors that might influence these mortality outcomes. METHODS: Embase, PubMed, Cinahl and Psycinfo were searched for publications in any language on 30 day or in hospital mortality after major lower limb amputation in population/regional based studies. PRISMA guidelines were followed. A self developed checklist was used to assess quality and susceptibility to bias. Summary data were extracted for the percentage of the population who died; pooling of quantitative results was not possible because of methodological differences between studies. RESULTS: Of the 9,082 publications identified, results were included from 21. The percentage of the population undergoing amputation who died within 30 days ranged from 7% to 22%, the in hospital equivalent was 4-20%. Transfemoral amputation and older age were found to have a higher proportion of early post-operative mortality, compared with transtibial and younger age, respectively. Other patient factors or surgical treatment choices related to increased early post-operative mortality varied between studies. CONCLUSIONS: Early post-operative mortality rates vary from 4% to 22%. There are very limited data presented for patient related factors (age, comorbidities) that influence mortality. Even less is known about factors related to surgical treatment choices, being limited to amputation level. More information is needed to allow comparison across studies or for any benchmarking of acceptable mortality rates. Agreement is needed on key factors to be reported.

Laminar Cortical Dynamics of 3D Surface Perception: Stratification, transparency, and Neon Color Spreading

How does the laminar organization of cortical circuitry in areas VI and V2 give rise to 3D percepts of stratification, transparency, and neon color spreading in response to 2D pictures and 3D scenes? Psychophysical experiments have shown that such 3D percepts are sensitive to whether contiguous image regions have the same relative contrast polarity (dark-light or lightdark), yet long-range perceptual grouping is known to pool over opposite contrast polarities. The ocularity of contiguous regions is also critical for neon color spreading: Having different ocularity despite the contrast relationship that favors neon spreading blocks the spread. In addition, half visible points in a stereogram can induce near-depth transparency if the contrast relationship favors transparency in the half visible areas. It thus seems critical to have the whole contrast relationship in a monocular configuration, since splitting it between two stereogram images cancels the effect. What adaptive functions of perceptual grouping enable it to both preserve sensitivity to monocular contrast and also to pool over opposite contrasts? Aspects of cortical development, grouping, attention, perceptual learning, stereopsis and 3D planar surface perception have previously been analyzed using a 3D LAMINART model of cortical areas VI, V2, and V4. The present work consistently extends this model to show how like-polarity competition between VI simple cells in layer 4 may be combined with other LAMINART grouping mechanisms, such as cooperative pooling of opposite polarities at layer 2/3 complex cells. The model also explains how the Metelli Rules can lead to transparent percepts, how bistable transparency percepts can arise in which either surface can be perceived as transparent, and how such a transparency reversal can be facilitated by an attention shift. The like-polarity inhibition prediction is consistent with lateral masking experiments in which two f1anking Gabor patches with the same contrast polarity as the target increase the target detection threshold when they approach the target. It is also consistent with LAMINART simulations of cortical development. Other model explanations and testable predictions will also be presented.