Accuracy of polls in Portugal

This study has a vast analysis, studying almost all the pre-electoral polls published or issued in Portugal in the month previous to each of the elections, since 1991 until the last one that took place in February 2005. The accuracy measures I used were adapted from the study carried out by Frederick Mosteller in the report to the Committee on Analysis of Pre-election Polls, regarding the USA elections of 1948.

Referenda outcomes and the influence of polls: A social network feedback process

This paper proposes a model to explain the differences between outcomes of referenda and the voting trends suggested by polls. Two main effects are at stake. First, the evolution of the voters' attitudes is conditional on the public information made available to them. Second, the predisposition toward abstention among individuals within each voting group may be different. Our model describes how these two aspects of decision making may interact, showing how publicly available information may amplify the distinct tendency toward abstention between both groups and thus affect the outcome of the referendum.

Going twice to the polls?: Optimality of two-stage voting procedures

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Estimating parliamentary composition through electoral polls

Any electoral system has an electoral formula that converts voteproportions into parliamentary seats. Pre-electoral polls usually focuson estimating vote proportions and then applying the electoral formulato give a forecast of the parliament's composition. We here describe theproblems arising from this approach: there is always a bias in theforecast. We study the origin of the bias and some methods to evaluateand to reduce it. We propose some rules to compute the sample sizerequired for a given forecast accuracy. We show by Monte Carlo simulationthe performance of the proposed methods using data from Spanish electionsin last years. We also propose graphical methods to visualize how electoralformulae and parliamentary forecasts work (or fail).

Hamilton-Wentworth News Article - "Polls Show O'Sullivan Leads"

A four page article about candidate Sean O'Sullivan in the Hamilton-Wentworth News.

Scribler Polls Apologie

Mordechai Bondi

Na 1 Nachlass Max Horkheimer, 688 - "Fortune Polls on Antisemitism" (p. IX 153.1-18)

"Fortune Polls on Antisemitism" (1947) (veröffentlicht unter dem Titel "Fortune Survey Analyzed by AJC Consultant to Appraise Results", in: News Letter, American Jewish Committee, Dezember 1947, S. 4):; 1. Max Horkheimer: Über Fortune Polls, a) Typoskript, 3 Blatt, b) Typoskript, 3 Blatt, c) Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 3 Blatt, d) Typoskript, 3 Blatt; 2. Max Horkheimer: Über Fortune Polls und die Gefahren eines neuen Antisemitismus (Vortragsskript?), Typoskript und Manuskript, 4 Blatt; 3. Theodor W. Adorno (?): "Some Results of Adult Project". Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 2 Blatt; 4. "Education Counteracts Prejudice" Auszug aus "Antisemitism among American Labor". Typoskript, 1 Blatt; 5. "Discord versus Harmony", Excerpt from: The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, March 1946, Typoskript, 1 Blatt; 6. Theodor W. Adorno: "Memorandum, Subject: Poll Controversy", 24.4.1948; 7. Leo Löwenthal: "Memorandum on Fortune Poll" und "Supplementary Memorandum on Fortune Poll", 8.10.1947. Typoskripte mit eigenhändigen Ergänzungen, 4 Blatt; 8. "Massing's Comment" (8.10.1947). Typoskript, 2 Blatt; 9. "Excerpts from Fortune Magazine 'The Fortune Survey': Racial and Religious Intolerance". Typoskript, 3 Blatt, a) "Summary of 'Fortune Survey' on Antisemitism in U.S. (Fortune, April, 1939)", Typoskript, 2 Blatt; 10. Leo Löwenthal: 1 Brief mit Unterschrift an Max Horkheimer, New York, 4.10.1947, 1 Blatt; 11. Exzerpt der Umfrage-Materialien der Opinion Research Corporation, Typoskripte, 61 Blatt; 12. Zahlenmaterial zu den Umfragen, 16 Blatt; Office of War Information, Bureau of Intelligence: Berichte über Antisemitismus: 13. "Attitudes toward Jews in the United States", 27.10.1942, a) als Typoskript vervielfältigt, 22 Blatt, b) Typoskript, 35 Blatt; 14. "Political Anti-Semitism: A Study of Indoctrination" (27.10.1942), a) als Typoskript vervielfältigt, 18 Blatt, b) Typoskript, 26 Blatt; 15. "Anti-Semitism - a Symptom of Disaffection" (8.10.1942), a) als Typoskript vervielfältigt, 8 Blatt, b) Typoskript, 12 Blatt; 16. Samuel H. Flowerman und Marie Jahoda: "Polls on Anti-Semitism. How much do they tell us?", Sonderdruck, 4 Blatt; 17. Fragebogen, Drucksachen, 4 Blatt; 18. Zeitungausschnitte aus: The Fortune Survey, 9 Blatt;

It's confusing when the Swiss go to the polls. Here are 6 surprising things about their elections

On Sunday, Switzerland votes on its federal parliament. The members of both chambers - 200 National Councillors and 46 Councillors of States - are directly elected, with the 26 Swiss cantons (or provinces) forming the districts. Seats in the National Council are distributed to the cantons based on their population size, while in the Council of States each full canton gets two seats and the six half-cantons get one each. Here are six things to look out for.

A Critical Review of Opinion Polls relating to Iranian Voting Intentions: Problems of Research Methodology as applied to Complex Societies

After the 10th Iranian Presidential election on June 12, 2009, several public opinion polls taken in Iran attracted the attention of policy-makers and journalists around the world because of the political crisis that followed. In this paper I first review critically the polls conducted by the WPO (WorldPublicOpinion.org), PIPA (Program on International Policy Attitudes) at the University of Maryland. I also review an essay by Steven Kull, which is based on the aforementioned poll results and which in my opinion leads to false conclusions concerning Iran’s political prospects. I also discuss “An Analysis of Multiple Polls of the Iranian Public,” published by WPO-PIPA on February 3 2010. The present paper arrives at the overall conclusion that it is impossible to obtain an accurate image of political opinions in societies as complicated as that of Iran by concentrating on only one technique of research and analysis, especially when the political and social situation in the society concerned is in a state of constant flux.

Aggregates of Polls, Property and Taxes as Assessed

1914-1940 In 2 Parts; Pt.1, as Assessed Jan1 (1914-34, Apr.1); Pt.2, as Assessed In Dec. (with Title: Aggregates of Property and Taxes)

Reducing voter waiting time : how to allocate voting machines to the polls.

Mode of access: Internet.

The Front National at the polls:transformational elections or the status quo reaffirmed?

There is a widespread sense that the Front National (FN) came of age in 2014 as a challenger for power in France. The municipal and European elections appeared to herald a transformation in the party's development and prospects, demonstrating its capacity to compete as a major player at subnational and supranational levels following strong performances at the national level in the presidential and legislative elections of 2012. This article takes a critical view of that assessment. It argues that the FN in 2014 made significant progress but that the apparent surge of support for the party in these elections belies fundamental weaknesses in the depth and range of its electoral capacities and in its prospects for transforming itself into a party of government. These weaknesses were again evident in the departmental elections of 2015, confirming that the FN has not succeeded in ending bipolarisation and imposing a genuinely tripartite structure on French politics. Far from being the 'first party of France' and 'at the gates of power', the FN is still consigned primarily to a role of spoiler, with its progression stalled by institutional obstacles, electoral limitations and a political containment which it remains powerless to overcome.