Monitoring Butterfly Abundance: Beyond Pollard Walks

Most butterfly monitoring protocols rely on counts along transects (Pollard walks) to generate species abundance indices and track population trends. It is still too often ignored that a population count results from two processes: the biological process (true abundance) and the statistical process (our ability to properly quantify abundance). Because individual detectability tends to vary in space (e.g., among sites) and time (e.g., among years), it remains unclear whether index counts truly reflect population sizes and trends. This study compares capture-mark-recapture (absolute abundance) and count-index (relative abundance) monitoring methods in three species (Maculinea nausithous and Iolana iolas: Lycaenidae; Minois dryas: Satyridae) in contrasted habitat types. We demonstrate that intraspecific variability in individual detectability under standard monitoring conditions is probably the rule rather than the exception, which questions the reliability of count-based indices to estimate and compare specific population abundance. Our results suggest that the accuracy of count-based methods depends heavily on the ecology and behavior of the target species, as well as on the type of habitat in which surveys take place. Monitoring programs designed to assess the abundance and trends in butterfly populations should incorporate a measure of detectability. We discuss the relative advantages and inconveniences of current monitoring methods and analytical approaches with respect to the characteristics of the species under scrutiny and resources availability.

The celebrated trial, Madeline Pollard vs. Breckinridge, the most noted breach of promise suit in the history of court records.

Trial of William Campbell Preston who was being sued by Miss Madeline Pollard for $50,000 in a breach of promise suit. Accused of promising to marry Miss Pollard and fathering a child and then failing to fulfill his promise. He was found guilty.

The celebrated case of Col. W. C. P. Breckinridge and Madeline Pollard,

Mode of access: Internet.

Pollard's Code Biennial 1918 : Containing all statutes of a general and permanent nature passed by the General Assembly of Virginia at its seession of 1918. Also annotations to the Code of Virginia 1904, the General Acts subsequent thereto, and the Constitution and tax bill. /

Mode of access: Internet.

Pollard's supplement to the Code of Virginia, 1922 : containing all statutes of a general and permanent nature passed by the General Assembly at the sessions of 1918, 1919, 1920 and 1922, also annotations to the Code of Virginia, 1919, to the general and permanent acts subsequent thereto, and to the Constitution and Tax Bill, also amendments to the Constitution and certain important acts continued in force by the Code of 1919, but not printed therein /

Mode of access: Internet.

Pollard's code biennial, 1908; containing all statutes of a general and permanent nature passed by the General assembly of Virginia at its sessions of 1906 and 1908, also annotations to the code of Virginia, 1904, and the constitution and tax bill;

Mode of access: Internet.

Using Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to predict length of hospital stay following trauma in New Zealand

Aim – To develop and assess the predictive capabilities of a statistical model that relates routinely collected Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to length of hospital stay (LOS) in survivors of traumatic injury. Method – Retrospective cohort study of adults who sustained a serious traumatic injury, and who survived until discharge from Auckland City, Middlemore, Waikato, or North Shore Hospitals between 2002 and 2006. Cubic-root transformed LOS was analysed using two-level mixed-effects regression models. Results – 1498 eligible patients were identified, 1446 (97%) injured from a blunt mechanism and 52 (3%) from a penetrating mechanism. For blunt mechanism trauma, 1096 (76%) were male, average age was 37 years (range: 15-94 years), and LOS and TRISS score information was available for 1362 patients. Spearman’s correlation and the median absolute prediction error between LOS and the original TRISS model was ρ=0.31 and 10.8 days, respectively, and between LOS and the final multivariable two-level mixed-effects regression model was ρ=0.38 and 6.0 days, respectively. Insufficient data were available for the analysis of penetrating mechanism models. Conclusions – Neither the original TRISS model nor the refined model has sufficient ability to accurately or reliably predict LOS. Additional predictor variables for LOS and other indicators for morbidity need to be considered.