Human capital and growth under political uncertainty

In this paper we show how political uncertainty may impede economic growth by reducing public investment in the formation of human capital, and how this negative effect of political uncertainty can be offset by a government contract. We present a model of growth with accumulation of human capital and government investment in education. We show that in a country with an unstable political system the government is reluctant to invest in human capital. Low government spending on education negatively affects productivity and slows growth. Furthermore, a politically unstable economy may be trapped in a stagnant equilibrium. We also demonstrate the role of a government retirement contract. Public investment in education and economic growth are higher when the future retirement compensation of the government depends on the future national income, in comparison with investment under zero or fixed retirement compensation.

Degree of vertical integration and its buffering effects on political uncertainty

The focus of this study is on the governance decisions in a concurrent channels context, in the case of uncertainty. The study examines how a firm chooses to deploy its sales force in times of uncertainty, and the subsequent performance outcome of those deployment choices. The theoretical framework is based on multiple theories of governance, including transaction cost analysis (TCA), agency theory, and institutional economics. Three uncertainty variables are investigated in this study. The first two are demand and competitive uncertainty which are considered to be industry-level market uncertainty forms. The third uncertainty, political uncertainty, is chosen as it is an important dimension of institutional environments, capturing non-economic circumstances such as regulations and political systemic issues. The study employs longitudinal secondary data from a Thai hotel chain, comprising monthly observations from January 2007 – December 2012. This hotel chain has its operations in 4 countries, Thailand, the Philippines, United Arab Emirates – Dubai, and Egypt, all of which experienced substantial demand, competitive, and political uncertainty during the study period. This makes them ideal contexts for this study. Two econometric models, both deploying Newey-West estimations, are employed to test 13 hypotheses. The first model considers the relationship between uncertainty and governance. The second model is a version of Newey-West, using an Instrumental Variables (IV) estimator and a Two-Stage Least Squares model (2SLS), to test the direct effect of uncertainty on performance and the moderating effect of governance on the relationship between uncertainty and performance. The observed relationship between uncertainty and governance observed follows a core prediction of TCA; that vertical integration is the preferred choice of governance when uncertainty rises. As for the subsequent performance outcomes, the results corroborate that uncertainty has a negative effect on performance. Importantly, the findings show that becoming more vertically integrated cannot help moderate the effect of demand and competitive uncertainty, but can significantly moderate the effect of political uncertainty. These findings have significant theoretical and practical implications, and extend our knowledge of the impact on uncertainty significantly, as well as bringing an institutional perspective to TCA. Further, they offer managers novel insight into the nature of different types of uncertainty, their impact on performance, and how channel decisions can mitigate these impacts.

Foreign Direct Investment and Political Uncertainty

Recent developments in the general equilibrium theory of multinationals emphasize the importance of multilateral considerations. Yet, existing explanations and corresponding estimations of FDI patterns have largely limited political and institutional investment impediments to a bilateral framework. Through the application of spatial econometric techniques, I demonstrate that the presence of both domestic and regional political uncertainty generate real options effects that lead to the delay or redirection of foreign direct investment. The magnitude and direction of these effects is conditional upon the host country regime type and the predominant multinational integration strategies in the region. Comparing these results with FDI of U.S. origin, I find evidence for divergent investment behavior by U.S. multinationals during regime changes in partner countries. Additionally, I find no evidence that multinationals from developing countries are more likely to complete cross-border deals in environments characterized by greater political risk or political uncertainty.

Properties of lignin and poly(hydroxybutyrate) blends

The Queensland University of Technology (QUT) allows the presentation of a thesis for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the format of published or submitted papers, where such papers have been published, accepted or submitted during the period of candidature. This thesis is composed of Seven published/submitted papers and one poster presentation, of which five have been published and the other two are under review. This project is financially supported by the QUTPRA Grant. The twenty-first century started with the resurrection of lignocellulosic biomass as a potential substitute for petrochemicals. Petrochemicals, which enjoyed the sustainable economic growth during the past century, have begun to reach or have reached their peak. The world energy situation is complicated by political uncertainty and by the environmental impact associated with petrochemical import and usage. In particular, greenhouse gasses and toxic emissions produced by petrochemicals have been implicated as a significant cause of climate changes. Lignocellulosic biomass (e.g. sugarcane biomass and bagasse), which potentially enjoys a more abundant, widely distributed, and cost-effective resource base, can play an indispensible role in the paradigm transition from fossil-based to carbohydrate-based economy. Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate), PHB has attracted much commercial interest as a plastic and biodegradable material because some its physical properties are similar to those of polypropylene (PP), even though the two polymers have quite different chemical structures. PHB exhibits a high degree of crystallinity, has a high melting point of approximately 180°C, and most importantly, unlike PP, PHB is rapidly biodegradable. Two major factors which currently inhibit the widespread use of PHB are its high cost and poor mechanical properties. The production costs of PHB are significantly higher than for plastics produced from petrochemical resources (e.g. PP costs $US1 kg-1, whereas PHB costs $US8 kg-1), and its stiff and brittle nature makes processing difficult and impedes its ability to handle high impact. Lignin, together with cellulose and hemicellulose, are the three main components of every lignocellulosic biomass. It is a natural polymer occurring in the plant cell wall. Lignin, after cellulose, is the most abundant polymer in nature. It is extracted mainly as a by-product in the pulp and paper industry. Although, traditionally lignin is burnt in industry for energy, it has a lot of value-add properties. Lignin, which to date has not been exploited, is an amorphous polymer with hydrophobic behaviour. These make it a good candidate for blending with PHB and technically, blending can be a viable solution for price and reduction and enhance production properties. Theoretically, lignin and PHB affect the physiochemical properties of each other when they become miscible in a composite. A comprehensive study on structural, thermal, rheological and environmental properties of lignin/PHB blends together with neat lignin and PHB is the targeted scope of this thesis. An introduction to this research, including a description of the research problem, a literature review and an account of the research progress linking the research papers is presented in Chapter 1. In this research, lignin was obtained from bagasse through extraction with sodium hydroxide. A novel two-step pH precipitation procedure was used to recover soda lignin with the purity of 96.3 wt% from the black liquor (i.e. the spent sodium hydroxide solution). The precipitation process is presented in Chapter 2. A sequential solvent extraction process was used to fractionate the soda lignin into three fractions. These fractions, together with the soda lignin, were characterised to determine elemental composition, purity, carbohydrate content, molecular weight, and functional group content. The thermal properties of the lignins were also determined. The results are presented and discussed in Chapter 2. On the basis of the type and quantity of functional groups, attempts were made to identify potential applications for each of the individual lignins. As an addendum to the general section on the development of composite materials of lignin, which includes Chapters 1 and 2, studies on the kinetics of bagasse thermal degradation are presented in Appendix 1. The work showed that distinct stages of mass losses depend on residual sucrose. As the development of value-added products from lignin will improve the economics of cellulosic ethanol, a review on lignin applications, which included lignin/PHB composites, is presented in Appendix 2. Chapters 3, 4 and 5 are dedicated to investigations of the properties of soda lignin/PHB composites. Chapter 3 reports on the thermal stability and miscibility of the blends. Although the addition of soda lignin shifts the onset of PHB decomposition to lower temperatures, the lignin/PHB blends are thermally more stable over a wider temperature range. The results from the thermal study also indicated that blends containing up to 40 wt% soda lignin were miscible. The Tg data for these blends fitted nicely to the Gordon-Taylor and Kwei models. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) evaluation showed that the miscibility of the blends was because of specific hydrogen bonding (and similar interactions) between reactive phenolic hydroxyl groups of lignin and the carbonyl group of PHB. The thermophysical and rheological properties of soda lignin/PHB blends are presented in Chapter 4. In this chapter, the kinetics of thermal degradation of the blends is studied using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). This preliminary investigation is limited to the processing temperature of blend manufacturing. Of significance in the study, is the drop in the apparent energy of activation, Ea from 112 kJmol-1 for pure PHB to half that value for blends. This means that the addition of lignin to PHB reduces the thermal stability of PHB, and that the comparative reduced weight loss observed in the TGA data is associated with the slower rate of lignin degradation in the composite. The Tg of PHB, as well as its melting temperature, melting enthalpy, crystallinity and melting point decrease with increase in lignin content. Results from the rheological investigation showed that at low lignin content (.30 wt%), lignin acts as a plasticiser for PHB, while at high lignin content it acts as a filler. Chapter 5 is dedicated to the environmental study of soda lignin/PHB blends. The biodegradability of lignin/PHB blends is compared to that of PHB using the standard soil burial test. To obtain acceptable biodegradation data, samples were buried for 12 months under controlled conditions. Gravimetric analysis, TGA, optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), FT-IR, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) were used in the study. The results clearly demonstrated that lignin retards the biodegradation of PHB, and that the miscible blends were more resistant to degradation compared to the immiscible blends. To obtain an understanding between the structure of lignin and the properties of the blends, a methanol-soluble lignin, which contains 3× less phenolic hydroxyl group that its parent soda lignin used in preparing blends for the work reported in Chapters 3 and 4, was blended with PHB and the properties of the blends investigated. The results are reported in Chapter 6. At up to 40 wt% methanolsoluble lignin, the experimental data fitted the Gordon-Taylor and Kwei models, similar to the results obtained soda lignin-based blends. However, the values obtained for the interactive parameters for the methanol-soluble lignin blends were slightly lower than the blends obtained with soda lignin indicating weaker association between methanol-soluble lignin and PHB. FT-IR data confirmed that hydrogen bonding is the main interactive force between the reactive functional groups of lignin and the carbonyl group of PHB. In summary, the structural differences existing between the two lignins did not manifest itself in the properties of their blends.

'O daughter ... forget your people and your father's house': Early Modern Women Writers and the Spanish Imaginary

‘O daughter … forget your people and your father’s house’: Early Modern Women Writers and the Spanish ImaginaryAnne Holloway and Ramona WrayHolloway and Wray consider the perspectives offered by two very different seventeenth-century women (Mary Bonaventure Browne, or Mother Browne (b.1615- and Lady Ann Fanshawe (b.1625) both of whom exchanged Ireland for Spain, and both of whom record journeys both ‘real’ and imagined in their writings. Browne’s deployment of hagiographical tropes in her History of the Poor Clares may reveal the potential impact of Iberian conventual culture; her allusions to the markers of sanctity insistent on the immutability of the body, whilst accepting and anticipating spectral presence in the form of bilocation. Fanshawe’s Memoirs are considered alongside the material legacy of her ‘Booke of Receipts of Physickes, Salues, Waters, Cordialls, Preserues and Cookery.’ Her impressions both in transit and within the domus are similarly marked by receptivity and sensitivity to the host culture. Amidst a backdrop of religious persecution and political uncertainty, in both cases Spain emerges as a potentially enabling context for creativity and self-expression.Keywords: Memoir; Franciscan; Poor Clares; Fanshawe; Mary Bonaventure Browne; hagiography; life-writing; autobiography, women writers

Paix soutenable : rapports de force et affaiblissement des extrémistes en Angola, en Colombie, au Salvador et au Mozambique de 1989 à 1999

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Los muertos del Floreanismo (Estudios)

El artículo analiza el crimen político durante las primeras décadas de vida de la República del Ecuador. Específicamente centra su estudio en el período dominado por la figura de Juan José Flores, primer presidente del Ecuador. La inestabilidad política, la precariedad de las alianzas entre las élites regionales, la crisis económica generada por las guerras de independencia, las conspiraciones y la violencia que caracterizaron al período de surgimiento de las repúblicas andinas hicieron del crimen político un “vicio de nacimiento”. El asesinato del general Antonio José de Sucre, la muerte de los miembros de la sociedad El Quiteño Libre, el homicidio de Juan Otamendi, entre otros, hicieron patente esta característica.

Capital flows to Latin America: first quarter 2003

Includes bibliography

'Beheading', Rule Manipulation and Fraud: The Approval of Election Results in Brazil, 1894-1930

Studies of electoral fraud tend to focus their analyses only on the pre-electoral or electoral phases. By examining the Brazilian First Republic (1889-1930), this article shifts the focus to a later phase, discussing a particular type of electoral fraud that has been little explored by the literature, namely, that perpetrated by the legislatures themselves during the process of giving final approval to election results. The Brazilian case is interesting because of a practice known as degola ('beheading') whereby electoral results were altered when Congress decided on which deputies to certify as duly elected. This has come to be seen as a widespread and standard practice in this period. However, this article shows that this final phase of rubber-stamping or overturning election results was important not because of the number of degolas, which was actually much lower than the literature would have us believe, but chiefly because of their strategic use during moments of political uncertainty. It argues that the congressional certification of electoral results was deployed as a key tool in ensuring the political stability of the Republican regime in the absence of an electoral court.

Le politiche giudiziarie inglesi degli anni 2000: mutamento di paradigma e rafforzamento dell'incisività politica dei giudici

The Ph.D. dissertation analyses the reasons for which political actors (governments, legislatures and political parties) decide consciously to give away a source of power by increasing the political significance of the courts. It focuses on a single case of particular significance: the passage of the Constitutional Reform Act 2005 in the United Kingdom. This Act has deeply changed the governance and the organization of the English judicial system, has provided a much clearer separation of powers and a stronger independence of the judiciary from the executive and the legislative. What’s more, this strengthening of the judicial independence has been decided in a period in which the political role of the English judges was evidently increasing. I argue that the reform can be interpreted as a «paradigm shift» (Hall 1993), that has changed the way in which the judicial power is considered. The most diffused conceptions in the sub-system of the English judicial policies are shifted, and a new paradigm has become dominant. The new paradigm includes: (i) stronger separation of powers, (ii) collective (as well as individual) conception of the independence of the judiciary, (iii) reduction of the political accountability of the judges, (iv) formalization of the guarantees of judicial independence, (v) principle-driven (instead of pragmatic) approach to the reforms, and (vi) transformation of a non-codified constitution in a codified one. Judicialization through political decisions represent an important, but not fully explored, field of research. The literature, in particular, has focused on factors unable to explain the English case: the competitiveness of the party system (Ramseyer 1994), the political uncertainty at the time of constitutional design (Ginsburg 2003), the cultural divisions within the polity (Hirschl 2004), federal institutions and division of powers (Shapiro 2002). All these contributes link the decision to enhance the political relevance of the judges to some kind of diffusion of political power. In the contemporary England, characterized by a relative high concentration of power in the government, the reasons for such a reform should be located elsewhere. I argue that the Constitutional Reform Act 2005 can be interpreted as a result of three different kinds of reasons: (i) the social and demographical transformations of the English judiciary, which have made inefficient most of the precedent mechanism of governance, (ii) the role played by the judges in the policy process and (iii) the cognitive and normative influences originated from the European context, as a consequence of the membership of the United Kingdom to the European Union and the Council of Europe. My thesis is that only a full analysis of all these three aspects can explain the decision to reform the judicial system and the content of the Constitutional Reform Act 2005. Only the cultural influences come from the European legal complex, above all, can explain the paradigm shift previously described.

中国と湾岸を結ぶ南アジア -- パキスタン・アフガニスタンの動向と関連させて

Pakistan is geographically situated between China and the Gulf. In order to balance its strategic position against the major security threat of India, Pakistan formed a special and stable strategic alliance with China against common threats since the period of the cold war even though the two countries have neither a political ideology nor political system in common. On the other hand Pakistan established another special relation with Saudi Arabia on the basis of Islamic identity. With its expanding economic capacity, China proposed a project by the name of "new silk road economic corridor" with the intention of expanding and multiplying trade routes with the Middle East and Europe. Within this framework Pakistan is expected to expand the role of an alternative land route that connects the Gulf and China for use if unfavorable emergencies occur in the Malacca route. However, the continuous political uncertainty in Afghanistan after the pullout of US-NATO fighting forces at the end of 2014 and sporadic outbreaks of terrorist acts by Pakistan Taliban in Pakistan have increased China's anxiety regarding Uyghur issues at home. Avoiding military options for the moment, China is trying to find ways to play an active role in the security issues of Afghanistan with help from Pakistan if available. On the other hand, it is noteworthy that the Pakistani government formed in the general election of 2008 completed its full term and transferred authority to the newly elected government in 2013, something never observed before in Pakistan's history. Coincidently, in Afghanistan the presidential election was carried out peacefully in 2014 in spite of the Taliban threat. Although it is too early to make any definite conclusion, constitutional processes, in spite of their defects, reflected to some extent wishes for normal life of the people of Pakistan and Afghanistan who were disgusted with weak governance and the prevalence of terrorism.

Other Than a Citizen: Vernacular Poetics in Postwar America

Few symbols of 1950s-1960s America remain as central to our contemporary conception of Cold War culture as the iconic ranch-style suburban home. While the house took center stage in the Nixon/Khrushchev kitchen debates as a symbol of modern efficiency and capitalist values, its popularity depended largely upon its obvious appropriation of vernacular architecture from the 19th century, those California haciendas and Texas dogtrots that dotted the American west. Contractors like William Levitt modernized the historical common houses, hermetically sealing their porous construction, all while using the ranch-style roots of the dwelling to galvanize a myth of an indigenous American culture. At a moment of intense occupational bureaucracy, political uncertainty and atomized social life, the rancher gave a self-identifying white consumer base reason to believe they could master their own plot in the expansive frontier. Only one example of America’s mid-century love affair with commodified vernacular forms, the ranch-style home represents a broad effort on the part of corporate and governmental interest groups to transform the vernacular into a style that expresses a distinctly homogenous vision of American culture. “Other than a Citizen” begins with an anatomy of that transformation, and then turns to the work of four poets who sought to reclaim the vernacular from that process of standardization and use it to countermand the containment-era strategies of Cold War America.

In four chapters, I trace references to common speech and verbal expressivity in the poetry and poetic theory of Charles Olson, Robert Duncan, LeRoi Jones/Amiri Baraka and Gwendolyn Brooks, against the historical backdrop of the Free-Speech Movement and the rise of mass-culture. When poets frame nonliterary speech within the literary page, they encounter the inability of writing to capture the vital ephemerality of verbal expression. Rather than treat this limitation as an impediment, the writers in my study use the poem to dramatize the fugitivity of speech, emphasizing it as a disruptive counterpoint to the technologies of capture. Where critics such as Houston Baker interpret the vernacular strictly in terms of resistance, I take a cue from the poets and argue that the vernacular, rooted etymologically at the intersection of domestic security and enslaved margin, represents a gestalt form, capable at once of establishing centralized power and sparking minor protest. My argument also expands upon Michael North’s exploration of the influence of minstrelsy and regionalism on the development of modernist literary technique in The Dialect of Modernism. As he focuses on writers from the early 20th century, I account for the next generation, whose America was not a culturally inferior collection of immigrants but an imperial power, replete with economic, political and artistic dominance. Instead of settling for an essentially American idiom, the poets in my study saw in the vernacular not phonetic misspellings, slang terminology and fragmented syntax, but the potential to provoke and thereby frame a more ethical mode of social life, straining against the regimentation of citizenship.

My attention to the vernacular argues for an alignment among writers who have been segregated by the assumption that race and aesthetics are mutually exclusive categories. In reading these writers alongside one another, “Other than a Citizen” shows how the avant-garde concepts of projective poetics and composition by field develop out of an interest in black expressivity. Conversely, I trace black radicalism and its emphasis on sociality back to the communalism practiced at the experimental arts college in Black Mountain, North Carolina, where Olson and Duncan taught. In pressing for this connection, my work reveals the racial politics embedded within the speech-based aesthetics of the postwar era, while foregrounding the aesthetic dimension of militant protest.

Not unlike today, the popular rhetoric of the Cold War insists that to be a citizen involves defending one’s status as a rightful member of an exclusionary nation. To be other than a citizen, as the poets in my study make clear, begins with eschewing the false certainty that accompanies categorical nominalization. In promoting a model of mutually dependent participation, these poets lay the groundwork for an alternative model of civic belonging, where volition and reciprocity replace compliance and self-sufficiency. In reading their lines, we become all the more aware of the cracks that run the length of our load-bearing walls.

Redistribution and technology adoption under uncertainty : a political economy perspective

We examine the role of politico-economic influences on macroeconomic performance within the framework of an endogenous growth model with costly technology adoption and uncertainty. The model is aimed at understanding the diversity in growth and inequality experiences across countries. Agents adopt either of two risky technologies, one of which is only available through financial intermediaries, who are able to alleviate some of this risk. The entry cost of financial intermediation depends on the proportion of government revenue that is allocated towards cost-reducing financial development expenditure, and agents vote on this proportion. The results show that agents at the top and bottom ends of the distribution prefer alternative means of re-distribution, thereby effectively blocking the allocation of resources towards cost-reducing financial development expenditure. Thus political factors have a role in delaying financial and capital deepening and economic development. Furthermore, the model provides a political-economy perspective on the Kuznets curve; uncertainty interacts with the political economy mechanism to produce transitional inequality patterns that, depending on initial conditions, can unearth the Kuznets-curve experience. Finally, the political outcomes are inefficient relative to policies aimed at maximizing the collective welfare of agents in the economy.

Essays on the determinants of private investment: The effects of relative price uncertainty and political instability

The objective of this study was to provide empirical evidence on the effects of relative price uncertainty and political instability on private investment. My effort is expressed in a single-equation model using macroeconomic and socio-political data from eight Latin American countries for the period 1970–1996. Relative price uncertainty is measured by the implied volatility of the exchange rate and political instability is measured by using indicators of social unrest and political violence. ^ I found that, after controlling for other variables, relative price uncertainty and political instability are negatively associated with private investment. Macroeconomic and political stability are key ingredients for the achievement of a strong investment response. This highlights the need to develop the state and build a civil society in which citizens can participate in decision-making and express consent without generating social turmoil. At the same time the government needs to implement structural policies along with relative price adjustments to eliminate excess volatility in price movements in order to provide a stable environment for investment. ^

Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.