Does IMF Induce Political Business Cycles? An Empirical Analysis on Latin America's Indebted Countries.

Rapport de recherche

Special interests and political business cycles

In this paper we bridge the gap between special interest politics and political business cycle literature. We build a framework where the interplay between the lobby power of special interest groups and the voting power of the majority of the population leads to political business cycles. We apply our set up to explain electoral cycles in government expenditure composition, aggregate expenditures and real exchange rates.

Os ciclos econômicos eleitorais e o Programa Bolsa-Família

A partir da disseminação do conhecimento sobre voto econômico no meio político, o incremento da renda real criado pelo Bolsa Família pode criar incentivos para que os governantes aumentem o valor dos repasses ou ampliem a base de famílias cadastradas com intuito de aumentar suas chances de reeleição. A hipótese testada nesse trabalho foi de que o governo influencia os gastos do Programa Bolsa Família e os aumentam anormalmente em períodos pré-eleitorais. Para testar essa hipótese, foram usadas as séries temporais de gastos mensais com o programa e de número de famílias beneficiárias desde janeiro de 2004 até dezembro de 2014. Para isso foram utilizados modelos estatísticos para identificar se estes gastos aumentam anormalmente em períodos que antecedem eleições, controlados por outros fatores que podem influenciar os gastos do programa, tais como PIB Nacional, Receitas e Despesas do Tesouro Nacional, Inflação e Desemprego. Os resultados sugerem a ocorrência de ciclos eleitorais nas eleições presidenciais, nos quais há uma aceleração no número de famílias inscritas no Bolsa Família nos três meses anteriores à campanha com a consequente aceleração dos gastos do programa no mesmo período, porém não há redução no número de famílias inscritas após as eleições e, por fim, que não existem efeitos no período das eleições locais.

Economic and political influences on urban planning: a comparison of London, Paris and Berlin

This paper addressed the degree of autonomy experienced by the planning regimes of London, Paris and Berlin. What variation exists in the governance of these cities and how do national, local, political, business and community interests effect planning decisions? The discussion is placed in the context of the literature on world cities and growth coalitions and the debate over whether economic forces compel cities to follow similar strategies. The paper concludes that in the case of the three cities examined there is considerable variation of planning approach due to different historical, cultural and political factors.

Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities

This paper uses a new panel of more than 2,000 Brazilian municipalities over 13 years to analyze the influence of public expenditures on the probability of mayors` reelection. We examine Brazilian municipal elections from 1988 to 2000 using a logit fixed-effects model. The results suggest that mayors who spend more during their terms of office increase the probability of their own reelection or of a successor of the same political party. In particular, higher capital spending over the years preceding elections and current expenditures in election years are beneficial to Brazilian incumbent mayors.

Electoral opportunism and fiscal policy before and after the EMU

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Best practice report on policy learning infrastructures in innovative labour market policies

This report synthesizes the findings of 11 country reports on policy learning in labour market and social policies that were conducted as part of WP5 of the INSPIRES project, which is funded by the 7th Framework Program of the EU-Commission. Notably, this report puts forward objectives of policy learning, discusses tools, processes and institutions of policy learning and presents the impacts of various tools and structures of the policy learning infrastructure for the actual policy learning process. The report defines three objectives of policy learning: evaluation and assessment of policy effectiveness, vision building and planning, and consensus building. In the 11 countries under consideration, the tools and processes of the policy learning, infrastructure can be classified into three broad groups: public bodies, expert councils, and parties, interest groups and the private sector. Finally, we develop four recommendations for policy learning: Firstly, learning processes should keep the balance between centralisation and plurality. Secondly, learning processes should be kept stable beyond the usual political business cycles. Thirdly, policy learning tools and infrastructures should be sufficiently independent from political influence or bias. Fourth, Policy learning tools and infrastructures should balance out mere effectiveness, evaluation and vision building.

Ciclos político-económico-electorales y su incidencia en los niveles de pobreza en el marco de la competencia por el poder

El interés de la presente monografía es analizar los efectos de los ciclos político-económico-electorales (CPEE) sobre los niveles de pobreza en Colombia para el periodo del 2002 al 2010. Se analiza el manejo de la política fiscal por parte del gobierno con el fin de caracterizar el ciclo político entre oportunista o partidista. De esta forma, se pretende corroborar que en Colombia los CPEE generan efectos en la economía. No obstante, estos efectos pueden ser más o menos duraderos en función de la sostenibilidad del discurso ganador en la contienda electoral. Como resultado de este trabajo se determinó que la discontinuidad en el manejo de la política fiscal presenta un ciclo político-económico-electoral oportunista que contribuye negativamente los niveles de pobreza. Para desarrollar lo anterior, se realiza un análisis el cual se aborda desde el Enfoque de la Elección Racional.

Ação de impugnação de mandato eletivo: análise constitucional e novas perspectivas

This study is developed in setting in which the Federal Constitution of 1988 completed 22 years of validity, as well as in general elections (national and state) in country. From this perspective, there are multiple reflections, especially on the constitutional mechanisms of popular sovereignty consolidation, the integrity and legitimacy of elections and democracy itself. It has appeared timely, therefore, to examine the development of ensured instrument of these precepts. Thus, it is approached as an object of research to Action of Impugnation to the Elective Mandate- AIEM, under Art.14, § 10 and § 11 of the Constitution of 1988, considering its constitutional and electoral reasons. It is then aimed to review the second AIEM conceptions of scale, systematic interpretation, preservation of constitutional rights and its effectiveness. Specifically, it is analyzed the Action as to the forms of power that relate to this. then it is examined the democracy principal aspects related to the issue. Without being followed, it is the democratic situation in which it is operated. They are also examined the political rights, especially regarding restraint applied to ineligibility and the possibility of integrating the effects of an impugnatory origin. Following, it has been discussed the formation of an early panorama, consisting of constitutional principles applied to electoral constituencies and eminently procedural principles and, according to which subsidizes the operations of such Action. After that, addressing the Election Law, including its concept, its sources, the Electoral Court and its peculiarities and functions. It is also considered the elective office as to its definition, characteristics and ways of accessing and extinguishing it. Afterwards, the Action of Impugnation is studied from its historical evolution of laws, legal, concept and goals. Expanding on the theme, it s highlighted about their chances of traditional appropriateness (economic power abuse, corruption and fraud) and modern (abuse of economic power intertwined with political) business, including the suggestion of suitability in case of abuse of unique political power. It was also identified the injurious potential demand affecting these illicit to enable the Action. Subsequently, other relevant aspects were explored, such as the legitimacy ad causam, competence, secrecy, procedure, recklessness, bad faith, the purpose of the merits and manageable resources. In the end, it is demonstrated an evolution of AIEM, however, still insufficient to reach full intentions that rise it. It is proposed therefore to re-read the action from news perspectives, based on constitutional and electoral precepts, as well as wider interpretation of the appropriateness of their assumptions of suitability and effects, according to a systematic interpretation, all aimed at the preservation of constitutional rights and their own effectiveness

A política empresarial: a responsabilidade social como mecanismo de segurança

Neste ensaio, tomamos como problema as ações da política empresarial no Brasil, em específico a política de responsabilidade social das empresas, por entender que existe nessa iniciativa um status de inovação tecnológica que precisa ser interrogado, pois se inscreve no interior de uma racionalidade que objetiva o governo das populações e tem como instrumento técnico, para realizar esse fim, uma sociedade controlada por mecanismos de segurança. Para tanto, partimos da análise de três procedimentos efetivados por alguns projetos sociais desenvolvidos por empresas brasileiras - a pesquisa científica, o protagonismo juvenil e a metodologia participativa. A referência de análise são textos de diversas naturezas, veiculados por esses projetos e disponíveis ao acesso público.

Odessa Oblast: Governor Saakashvili’s superficial changes. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 196|February 2016

Two years after the Revolution of Dignity, Odessa Oblast, one of Ukraine’s key regions in economic and political terms, is still strongly polarised as regards its residents’ views on the future of their country. The political circles rooted in the Party of Regions have maintained their influence to a great extent due to increasing dissatisfaction with the central government’s activity and with the economic crisis which has strongly affected the public. Politicians linked to the ancien régime remain the most important political players. Some pro-Ukrainian circles had pinned their hopes for change in the region on the nomination of the former Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, for governor of Odessa Oblast on 30 May 2015. At the beginning of his rule this politician made widely publicised promises to combat corruption, to improve the quality of the administration services, to develop infrastructure and to attract foreign capital. However, more than half a year has passed since he assumed office, and it is difficult to speak about any spectacular successes in reforming the region. Saakashvili has above all become a player on the national forum, supporting the presidential camp in their struggle with Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and the oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi, among others. However, his nomination has made Odessa Oblast more important for Ukraine, above all in political and symbolic terms. This is because Odessa Oblast is the best manifestation of the condition of the Ukrainian state two years since the Revolution of Dignity – rudimentary reforms or no reforms at all, strong resistance to any changes from the administration, strong local political-business connections, the lack of consolidation among post-Maidan groups and corruption inherent in the system.