Exchange rate misalignments and international trade policy: impacts on tariffs

The debate on “exchange wars and trade wars” is raising the attention of experts on international trade and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on one of the most traditional trade policy instruments – tariffs, as defined by the WTO – World Trade Organization. It is divided into three sections: the first one examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and its consequences for the multilateral trade system; the second explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, US and China; and the third summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication”

The Renaissance of Performance Funding for Higher Education: Policy Adoption, Implementation, and Impacts

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Conceiving Comparative Policy Analysis : Implementing Air Quality Improvement Programs

The comparative analysis of air quality control policies provides an interesting field for studies of comparative policy analysis including program formulation and implementation processes. In European countries, the problem is comparable, whereas implementation structures, programs and policy impacts vary to a considerable extent. Analysis testing possibilities and constraints of air control policies under varying conditions are likely to contribute to a further development of a theory of policy analysis. This paper presents the analytical framework applied in a continuing empirical study explaining program formulation and implementation processes with respect to the different actors involved. Concrete emitter behavior can be explained by interaction processes at the very local level, by program elements of national legislation, and by structural constraints under which such programs are produced.

Impacts of foreign exchange auctions on the informal market rate in Myanmar

Since the abolition of the official peg and the introduction of a managed float in April 2012, the Central Bank of Myanmar has operated the daily two–way auctions of foreign exchange aimed at smoothing exchange rate fluctuations. Despite the reforms to the foreign exchange regime, however, informal trading of foreign exchange remains pervasive. Using the daily informal exchange rate and Central Bank auction data, this study examines the impacts of auctions on the informal market rate. First, a VAR analysis indicates that the official rate did not Granger cause the informal rate. Second, GARCH models indicate that the auctions did not reduce the conditional variance of the informal rate returns. Overall, the auctions have only a quite modest impact on the informal exchange rate.

EU Sanctions Policy towards Russia: The Sanctioner-Sanctionee’s Game of Thrones. CEPS Working Document No. 402/January 2015

Since Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula and the start of the conflict in the Donbass region, the EU has introduced three waves of restrictive measures against Russia, which are regularly updated. Having thus expanded from measures targeting individuals to entire sectors, the current EU sanctions policy impacts Russia’s financial markets, energy sector and defence industry. On top of this, new bans affect EU investments, services and trade in Crimea and Sevastopol. While they hurt the Russian economy, the EU sanctions also have a boomerang effect, especially in conjunction with the countersanctions imposed by the Kremlin on EU food imports. In this lose-lose situation, the usefulness of the EU sanctions has been called into doubt, in particular in those EU member states that are the most economically intertwined with Russia. How successful has the EU been so far in pushing its case with the Kremlin and what moves are left for the two main actors in the sanctioner-sanctionee ‘Game of Thrones’? This Working Document offers a SWOT analysis of the EU sanctions policy towards Russia and identifies the Strengths for the EU to cultivate, Weaknesses to minimise, Opportunities to seize and Threats to counteract.

Impactos econômicos da nova realidade da exploração do pré-sal. Existe uma ameaça ao etanol?

A partir de meados dos anos 2000, a produção brasileira de etanol voltou a prosperar. Enquanto isso, em 2007 foi anunciada a descoberta de grandes reservas de petróleo na camada pré-sal no litoral brasileiro. Com isso, a perspectiva promissora para a indústria brasileira de etanol começou a dar lugar ao desenvolvimento de petróleo do pré-sal com um ambicioso programa de investimentos. Além disso, entre 2011 e 2014 o Governo adotou uma nova política de preços domésticos da gasolina e diesel, com o objetivo de reduzir as pressões inflacionárias, mas reduzindo gradualmente a competitividade do etanol, além de comprometer a situação financeira da Petrobras, dificultando investimentos no pré-sal. Considerando tais desafios e a importância dos setores de petróleo e etanol para a economia brasileira, este estudo tem como objetivo avaliar os impactos econômicos de longo prazo da exploração do pré-sal, com especial atenção para as consequências sobre o setor de etanol. É realizada uma avaliação dos impactos da política de controle do preço da gasolina do período 2011-2014 sobre o setor de etanol. Um modelo adaptado de equilíbrio geral dinâmico recursivo é empregado no qual o setor do petróleo do pré-sal é adicionado como uma tecnologia backstop. Os resultados sugerem que o estímulo precoce da produção do pré-sal para alcançar a produção de petróleo esperada pelo Governo traz mais custos do que benefícios para a economia brasileira. Constatou-se que sem interferência do governo, a produção de petróleo do pré-sal torna-se competitiva somente após 2025-2035. Com relação ao impacto sobre a indústria do etanol, verificou-se que o desenvolvimento do pré-sal não enfraquece a produção brasileira de etanol. No entanto, a política de controle de preço da gasolina teve um impacto negativo sobre o setor de etanol.

Apropriação do conhecimento pedagógico-tecnológico em matemática e a formação continuada de professores

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Memórias de educadoras sobre a gestão de Paulo Freire na Secretaria Municipal de Educação de São Paulo

Este trabalho apresenta os resultados da pesquisa sobre a gestão de Paulo Freire na Secretaria Municipal de Educação da Cidade de São Paulo. Foi utilizada a metodologia da história oral, entrevistamos professoras da rede municipal de ensino de São Paulo que atuaram durante o período em que Paulo Freire foi secretário de educação desse município. Paulo Freire foi principal teórico brasileiro no campo da educação e também desempenhou o papel de gestor público. Ficou a frente de programas de alfabetização de adultos de governos do nordeste do Brasil e participou da equipe do MEC que pretendia promover o Programa de Alfabetização de Adultos durante o governo João Goulart. Em 1989, participou do governo de Luiza Erundina na prefeitura de São Paulo. Ocupou o cargo de Secretario Municipal de Educação até maio de 1991. Algumas das marcas de sua gestão foram a luta pela construção de uma escola popular e democrática, a conquista de direitos para os professores como a criação do Estatuto do Magistério Municipal, o restabelecimento dos Conselhos de Escola, a organização dos Ciclos nas escolas de ensino fundamental. Durante a pesquisa, foram entrevistadas dez professoras, utilizando-se a metodologia da História Oral. As professoras apresentaram relatos autobiográficos destacando o período em que Freire foi secretário de educação em São Paulo. Assim, registramos visões amplas sobre os eventos ligados à reconstrução democrática que marcaram a sociedade brasileira naquele período. No que tange ao campo educacional, a pesquisa apresenta algumas reflexões acerca da imagem de Paulo Freire e aspectos sobre a memória docente relacionados às condições de trabalho e às relações no interior das escolas. As entrevistadas abordaram temas como participação da comunidade na escola, a relação dos professores e o governo, o funcionamento dos conselhos de escola, entre outros. A pesquisa ainda reflete sobre os impactos de políticas públicas sobre a população a partir da ótica das professoras.

Avaliação de impactos não esperados: estudo de caso sobre o uso alternativo de crédito no Pronaf B

This Doctoral Dissertation deals with the evaluation of impacts, through the Case Study on deviations or redirects present in contracts Pronaf B, at Governador Mangabeira - BA , from 2011 to 2013. From the questioning about the expected impacts not contribute to the effectiveness of the program ? It was possible the measurement of the hypothesis that the effectiveness of unexpected impacts stems from the logic of family farming, unique socio-economic conditions of individuals and family units. The methodology is structured in the theoretical framework regarding the impact assessment and family farming, data collection, questionnaires among redirected contracting credit in PRONAF B and interviews with institutional actors involved . The results confirmed the existence of a logic family farm, able to take own decisions their mode of reproduction of life. As for the impact assessment, we added the importance of the unexpected in the evaluation of public policy impacts , while study of effectiveness with the beneficiaries and the significant contribution of their views.

Macroeconomic impacts of politics and policy: Applications to financial and real markets

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Economic impacts of alternative water policy scenarios in the Spanish production system: an input-output analysis

The objective of this paper is to analyse the economic impacts of alternative water policies implemented in the Spanish production system. The methodology uses two versions of the input-output price model: a competitive formulation and a mark-up formulation. The input-output framework evaluates the impact of water policy measures on production prices, consumption prices, intermediate water demand and private welfare. Our results show that a tax on the water used by sectors considerably reduces the intermediate water demand, and increases the production and consumption prices. On the other hand, according to Jevons' paradox, an improvement in technical efficiency, which leads to a reduction in the water requirements of all sectors and an increase in water production, increases the amount of water consumed. The combination of a tax on water and improved technical efficiency takes the pressure off prices and significantly reduces intermediate water demand. JEL Classification: C67 ; D57 ; Q25. Keywords: Production prices; Consumption prices; Water uses; Water policy; Water taxation.

Collective Marketing Arrangements for Geographically Differentiated Agricultural Products: Welfare Impacts and Policy Implications, May 2006

This paper examines the incentive of atomistic agricultural producers within a specific geographical region to differentiate and collectively market products. We develop a model that allows us to analyze the market and welfare effects of the main types of real-world producer organizations, using it to derive economic insights regarding the circumstances under which these organizations will evolve, and describing implications of the results obtained in the context of an ongoing debate between the European Union and United States. As the anticipated fixed costs of development and marketing increase and the anticipated size of the market falls, it becomes essential to increase the ability of the producer organization to control supply in order to ensure the coverage of fixed costs. Whenever a collective organization allows a market (with a new product) to exist that otherwise would not have existed there is an increase in societal welfare. Counterintuitively, stronger property right protection for producer organizations may be welfare enhancing even after a differentiated product has been developed. The reason for this somewhat paradoxical result is that legislation aimed at curtailing the market power of producer organizations may induce large technological distortions.

Poverty impacts of agricultural policy adjustments in an opening economy: the case of Colombia

We aim to contribute to the assessment of poverty impacts on the rural sector arising from agricultural policy adjustments in Colombia. For this we use an agriculture specialized static CGE model, jointly (sequentially) with a microsimulation model that allows for effective job relocation. Results indicate that the sectoral impact of the program implemented tends to be small and has considerable variability across crops. They also show that the highest impacts come from the irrigation and land improvements component of the program. Lastly, although it reduces poverty, poverty impacts are small and tend to concentrate in rural households toward the middle of the income distribution ladder.

Ideational change in the WTO and its impacts on EU agricultural policy institutions and the CAP

This paper argues that the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) introduced the market liberal paradigm as the ideational underpinning of the new farm trade regime. Though the immediate consequences in terms of limitations on agricultural support and protection were very modest, the Agreement did impact on the way in which domestic farm policy evolves. It forced EU agricultural policy makers to consider the agricultural negotiations when reforming the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The new paradigm in global farm trade resulted in a process of institutional layering in which concerns raised in the World Trade Organization (WTO) were gradually incorporated in EU agricultural institutions. This has resulted in gradual reform of the CAP in which policy instruments have been changed in order to make the CAP more WTO compatible. The underlying paradigm, the state-assisted paradigm, has been sustained though it has been rephrased by introducing the concept of multifunctionality.