Probabilistic forecasting: why model imperfection is a poison pill

This volume is a serious attempt to open up the subject of European philosophy of science to real thought, and provide the structural basis for the interdisciplinary development of its specialist fields, but also to provoke reflection on the idea of ‘European philosophy of science’. This efforts should foster a contemporaneous reflection on what might be meant by philosophy of science in Europe and European philosophy of science, and how in fact awareness of it could assist philosophers interpret and motivate their research through a stronger collective identity. The overarching aim is to set the background for a collaborative project organising, systematising, and ultimately forging an identity for, European philosophy of science by creating research structures and developing research networks across Europe to promote its development.

Restructuring In The Hospitality Industry

In her dialogue entitled - Restructuring in the Hospitality Industry - Elisa S. Moncarz, Associate Professor, the School of Hospitality Management at Florida International University, intends for you to know the following: “Recent years have seen a proliferation of restructurings of major American corporations creating an extremely important issue that has affected U.S. business. This article discusses restructuring issues in the hospitality industry, focusing attention on its causes and motivations, as well as on its benefits and perils. The author considers the impact of restructuring on investors and management while examining recent restructurings involving hospitality firms.” In defining the concept of restructuring, Associate Professor Moncarz informs you, “Restructuring entails the implementation of fundamental and comprehensive modification of a company's operational and/or financial structure.” “It has, indeed, become fashionable to take a company apart and put it back together in a different form,” the author says. Additionally, Moncarz refers to a Wall Street Journal study, dated August 1985, which reveals that nearly half the large American corporations were, or were soon to be restructured in the 1984/85 time frame. There are several distinct types of restructurings and the author wants you to be aware of some of them. “…threats of takeover attempts, the larger part of all restructuring have been initiated willingly in order to expand or divest a company's line of business (i.e., operational restructurings) or redirect its finances (i.e., financial restructurings),” the author reveals. “Two principal types of operational restructurings are mergers and acquisitions [M&A], and divestitures [disposing of unwanted units or assets],” Moncarz further defines the concepts of expansion and divestiture. The author explains several types of financial restructuring sketches used in the hospitality industry, including stock re-purchasing, debt issuances and redemptions, swapping debt for equity, and effective theories of realigning debt through extending loans and/or revising terms. To expand their businesses, Moncarz makes anecdotal reference to several major food and beverage corporations that have successfully employed operational restructuring principles. The author wades into the shallow end of the hostile takeover pool by explaining some of the corporate restructuring concepts used to repel that aggressive technique. Walt Disney Company completely redesigned their entire upper level management structure in a successful effort to thwart a hostile takeover bid by corporate raider Saul P. Steinberg, Moncarz informs. To close, the author touches on leveraged buyouts [LBOs], and stock repurchases to divest unwanted divisions and immobilize hostile takeover attempts. A lengthy table of - Selected Restructurings in the Hospitality Industry [1982 to date of article] – is also included.

The ascidian natural product eusynstyelamide B is a novel topoisomerase II poison that induces DNA damage and growth arrest in prostate and breast cancer cells

As part of an anti-cancer natural product drug discovery program, we recently identified eusynstyelamide B (EB), which displayed cytotoxicity against MDA-MB-231 breast cancer cells (IC50 = 5 μM) and induced apoptosis. Here, we investigated the mechanism of action of EB in cancer cell lines of the prostate (LNCaP) and breast (MDA-MB-231). EB inhibited cell growth (IC50 = 5 μM) and induced a G2 cell cycle arrest, as shown by a significant increase in the G2/M cell population in the absence of elevated levels of the mitotic marker phospho-histone H3. In contrast to MDA-MB-231 cells, EB did not induce cell death in LNCaP cells when treated for up to 10 days. Transcript profiling and Ingenuity Pathway Analysis suggested that EB activated DNA damage pathways in LNCaP cells. Consistent with this, CHK2 phosphorylation was increased, p21CIP1/WAF1 was up-regulated and CDC2 expression strongly reduced by EB. Importantly, EB caused DNA double-strand breaks, yet did not directly interact with DNA. Analysis of topoisomerase II-mediated decatenation discovered that EB is a novel topoisomerase II poison.

Non-target impacts of poison baiting for predator control in Australia

1. Mammalian predators are controlled by poison baiting in many parts of the world, often to alleviate their impacts on agriculture or the environment. Although predator control can have substantial benefits, the poisons used may also be potentially harmful to other wildlife. 2. Impacts on non-target species must be minimized, but can be difficult to predict or quantify. Species and individuals vary in their sensitivity to toxins and their propensity to consume poison baits, while populations vary in their resilience. Wildlife populations can accrue benefits from predator control, which outweigh the occasional deaths of non-target animals. We review recent advances in Australia, providing a framework for assessing non-target effects of poisoning operations and for developing techniques to minimize such effects. We also emphasize that weak or circumstantial evidence of non-target effects can be misleading. 3. Weak evidence that poison baiting presents a potential risk to non-target species comes from measuring the sensitivity of species to the toxin in the laboratory. More convincing evidence may be obtained by quantifying susceptibility in the field. This requires detailed information on the propensity of animals to locate and consume poison baits, as well as the likelihood of mortality if baits are consumed. Still stronger evidence may be obtained if predator baiting causes non-target mortality in the field (with toxin detected by post-mortem examination). Conclusive proof of a negative impact on populations of non-target species can be obtained only if any observed non-target mortality is followed by sustained reductions in population density. 4. Such proof is difficult to obtain and the possibility of a population-level impact cannot be reliably confirmed or dismissed without rigorous trials. In the absence of conclusive evidence, wildlife managers should adopt a precautionary approach which seeks to minimize potential risk to non-target individuals, while clarifying population-level effects through continued research.

Demographic and functional responses of wild dogs to poison baiting

Lethal control of wild dogs - that is Dingo (Canis lupus dingo) and Dingo/Dog (Canis lupus familiaris) hybrids - to reduce livestock predation in Australian rangelands is claimed to cause continental-scale impacts on biodiversity. Although top predator populations may recover numerically after baiting, they are predicted to be functionally different and incapable of fulfilling critical ecological roles. This study reports the impact of baiting programmes on wild dog abundance, age structures and the prey of wild dogs during large-scale manipulative experiments. Wild dog relative abundance almost always decreased after baiting, but reductions were variable and short-lived unless the prior baiting programme was particularly effective or there were follow-up baiting programmes within a few months. However, age structures of wild dogs in baited and nil-treatment areas were demonstrably different, and prey populations did diverge relative to nil-treatment areas. Re-analysed observations of wild dogs preying on kangaroos from a separate study show that successful chases that result in attacks of kangaroos by wild dogs occurred when mean wild dog ages were higher and mean group size was larger. It is likely that the impact of lethal control on wild dog numbers, group sizes and age structures compromise their ability to handle large difficult-to-catch prey. Under certain circumstances, these changes sometimes lead to increased calf loss (Bos indicus/B. taurus genotypes) and kangaroo numbers. Rangeland beef producers could consider controlling wild dogs in high-risk periods when predation is more likely and avoid baiting at other times.

Inhibition of Mycobacterium tuberculosis topoisomerase I by m-AMSA, a eukaryotic type II topoisomerase poison

m-AMSA, an established inhibitor of eukaryotic type II topoisomerases, exerts its cidal effect by binding to the enzyme-DNA complex thus inhibiting the DNA religation step. The molecule and its analogues have been successfully used as chemotherapeutic agents against different forms of cancer. After virtual screening using a homology model of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis topoisomerase I, we identified m-AMSA as a high scoring hit. We demonstrate that m-AMSA can inhibit the DNA relaxation activity of topoisomerase I from M. tuberculosis and Mycobacterium smegmatis. In a whole cell assay, m-AMSA inhibited the growth of both the mycobacteria. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The potential use of 241Am as proliferation resistant burnable poison in PWRs

This paper discusses the use of 241Am as proliferation resistant burnable poison for light water reactors. Homogeneous addition of small (as little as 0.12%) amounts of 241Am to the conventional light water reactor fuel results in significant increase in 238Pu/Pu ratio in the discharged fuel improving its proliferation resistance. Moreover, 241Am, admixed to the fuel, acts as burnable absorber allowing for substantial reduction in conventional reactivity control means without a notable fuel cycle length penalty. This is possible due to favorable characteristics of 241Am transmutation chain. The fuel cycle length penalty of introducing 241Am into the core is evaluated and discussed, as well as the impact of He production in the fuel pins and degradation of reactivity feedback coefficients. Proliferation resistance and reactivity control features related to the use of 241Am are compared to those of using 237Np, which has also been suggested as an additive to the conventional fuel in order to improve its proliferation resistance. It was found that 241Am admixture is more favorable than 237Np admixture because of the smaller fuel cycle length penalty and higher burnable poison savings. Addition of either 237Np or 241Am would provide substantial but not ultimate protection from misuse of Pu originating in the spent fuel from the commercial power reactors. Therefore, the benefits from application of the concept would have to be carefully evaluated against the additional costs and proliferation risks associated with manufacturing of 237Np or 241Am doped fuel. Although this work concerns specifically with PWRs, the conclusions could also be applied to BWRs and, to some extent, to other thermal spectrum reactor types. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The potential use of 241Am as proliferation resistant burnable poison

This paper discusses the use of 141Am as proliferation resistant burnable poison for light water reactors. Homogeneous addition of small (less than 1 %) amounts of 241Am to the conventional LWR fuel results in significant increase in 238Pu/Pu ratio in the discharged fuel improving its proliferation resistance. Moreover, 241Am, admixed to the fuel, acts as burnable absorber allowing for substantial reduction in conventional reactivity control means without notable fuel cycle length penalty. This is possible due to favourable characteristics of 241Am transmutation chain. The fuel cycle length penalty of introducing 241Am into the core is evaluated and discussed, as well as the impact of He production in the fuel pins and degradation of reactivity feedback coefficients. Proliferation resistance and reactivity control features related to the use of 241Am are compared to those of using 237Np, which has also been suggested as an additive to the conventional fuel in order to improve its proliferation resistance. It was found that 241Am admixture is more favourable than 237Np admixture because of the smaller fuel cycle length penalty and higher burnable poison savings.

Optimization of burnable poison design for Pu incineration in fully fertile free PWR core

The design challenges of the fertile-free based fuel (FFF) can be addressed by careful and elaborate use of burnable poisons (BP). Practical fully FFF core design for PWR reactor has been reported in the past [1]. However, the burnable poison option used in the design resulted in significant end of cycle reactivity penalty due to incomplete BP depletion. Consequently, excessive Pu loading were required to maintain the target fuel cycle length, which in turn decreased the Pu burning efficiency. A systematic evaluation of commercially available BP materials in all configurations currently used in PWRs is the main objective of this work. The BP materials considered are Boron, Gd, Er, and Hf. The BP geometries were based on Wet Annular Burnable Absorber (WABA), Integral Fuel Burnable Absorber (IFBA), and Homogeneous poison/fuel mixtures. Several most promising combinations of BP designs were selected for the full core 3D simulation. All major core performance parameters for the analyzed cases are very close to those of a standard PWR with conventional UO2 fuel including possibility of reactivity control, power peaking factors, and cycle length. The MTC of all FFF cores was found at the full power conditions at all times and very close to that of the UO2 core. The Doppler coefficient of the FFF cores is also negative but somewhat lower in magnitude compared to UO2 core. The soluble boron worth of the FFF cores was calculated to be lower than that of the UO2 core by about a factor of two, which still allows the core reactivity control with acceptable soluble boron concentrations. The main conclusion of this work is that judicial application of burnable poisons for fertile free fuel has a potential to produce a core design with performance characteristics close to those of the reference PWR core with conventional UO2 fuel.

Effects of Naotan Pill on repair of neural cells and cognitive disorders in juvenile rats following hypoxia and ischemia

BACKGROUND: Hypoxia and ischemia induce neuronal damage, decreased neuronal numbers and synaptophysin levels, and deficits in learning and memory functions. Previous studies have shown that lycium barbarum polysaccharide, the most effective component of barbary wolfberry fruit, has protective effects on neural cells in hypoxia-ischemia. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effects of Naotan Pill on glutamate-treated neural cells and on cognitive function in juvenile rats following hypoxia-ischemia. DESIGN, TIME AND SETTING: The randomized, controlled, in vivo study was performed at the Cell Laboratory of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou Institute of Modern Physics of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine of Gansu Provincial Rehabilitation Center Hospital, China from December 2005 to August 2006. The cellular neurobiology, in vitro experiment was conducted at the Institute of Human Anatomy, Histology, Embryology and Neuroscience, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, and Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine of Gansu Provincial Rehabilitation Center Hospital, China from March 2007 to January 2008. MATERIALS: Naotan Pill, composed of barbary wolfberry fruit, danshen root, grassleaf sweetflag rhizome, and glossy privet fruit, was prepared by Gansu Provincial Rehabilitation Center, China. Rabbit anti-synaptophysin, choline acetyl transferase polyclonal antibody, streptavidin-biotin complex kit and diaminobenzidine kit (Boster, Wuhan, China), as well as glutamate (Hualian, Shanghai, China) were used in this study. METHODS: Cortical neural cells were isolated from neonatal Wistar rats. Neural cell damage models were induced using glutamate, and administered Naotan Pill prior to and following damage. A total of 54 juvenile Wistar rats were equally and randomly assigned into model, Naotan Pill, and sham operation groups. The left common carotid artery was ligated, and then rat models of hypoxic-ischemic injury were assigned to the model and Naotan Pill groups. At 2 days following model induction, rats in the Naotan Pill group were administered Naotan Pill suspension for 21 days. In the model and sham operation groups, rats received an equal volume of saline. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Neural cell morphology was observed using an inverted phase contrast microscope. Survival rate of neural cells was measured by MTT assay. Synaptophysin and choline acetyl transferase expression was observed in the hippocampal CA1 region of juvenile rats using immunohistochemistry. Cognitive function was tested by the Morris water maze. RESULTS: Pathological changes were detected in glutamate-treated neural cells. Neural cell morphology remained normal after Naotan Pill intervention. Absorbance and survival rate of neural cells were significantly greater following Naotan Pill intervention, compared to glutamate-treated neural cells (P < 0.05). Synaptophysin and choline acetyl transferase expression was lowest in the hippocampal CA1 region in the model group and highest in the sham operation group. Significant differences among groups were observed (P < 0.05). Escape latency and swimming distance were significantly longer in the model group compared to the Naotan Pill group (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Naotan Pill exhibited protective and repair effects on glutamate-treated neural cells. Naotan Pill upregulated synaptophysin and choline acetyl transferase expression in the hippocampus and improved cognitive function in rats following hypoxia-ischemia.

Protein phosphatase inhibition assay for detection of diarrhetic shellfish poison in oyster

A method based on protein phosphatase enzyme activity inhibition for the detection of diarrhetic shellfish poison (DSP) was used to analyze the DSP toxicity in three oyster samples. Based on the standard dose-effect curve developed with a series of okadaic acid (OA) standard solutions, the DSP toxicity of the three oyster samples collected were screened, and the results showed that there were no OA and dinophysis toxins ( DTXs) in the samples without hydrolization. However, the OA toxicity could be detected in two of the hydrolyzed samples, and the OA toxicity of the two samples were 1.81 and 1.21 mu g OA eq./kg oyster, respectively.