Improving precision and reducing bias in biological surveys: estimating false-negative error rates

The use of presence/absence data in wildlife management and biological surveys is widespread. There is a growing interest in quantifying the sources of error associated with these data. We show that false-negative errors (failure to record a species when in fact it is present) can have a significant impact on statistical estimation of habitat models using simulated data. Then we introduce an extension of logistic modeling, the zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) model that permits the estimation of the rate of false-negative errors and the correction of estimates of the probability of occurrence for false-negative errors by using repeated. visits to the same site. Our simulations show that even relatively low rates of false negatives bias statistical estimates of habitat effects. The method with three repeated visits eliminates the bias, but estimates are relatively imprecise. Six repeated visits improve precision of estimates to levels comparable to that achieved with conventional statistics in the absence of false-negative errors In general, when error rates are less than or equal to50% greater efficiency is gained by adding more sites, whereas when error rates are >50% it is better to increase the number of repeated visits. We highlight the flexibility of the method with three case studies, clearly demonstrating the effect of false-negative errors for a range of commonly used survey methods.

Nuclear weak interaction rates during stellar evolution and collapse

Nuclear weak interaction rates, including electron and positron emission rates, and continuum electron and positron capture rates , as well as the associated v and –/v energy loss rates are calculated on a detailed grid of temperature and density for the free nucleons and 226 nuclei with masses between A = 21 and 60. Gamow-Teller and Fermi discrete-state transition matrix element systematics and the Gamow-Teller T^< →/← T^> resonance transitions are discussed in depth and are implemented in the stellar rate calculations. Results of the calculations are presented on an abbreviated grid of temperature and density and comparison is made to terrestrial weak transition rates where possible. Neutron shell blocking of allowed electron capture on heavy nuclei during stellar core collapse is discussed along with several unblocking mechanisms operative at high temperature and density. The results of one-zone collapse calculations are presented which suggest that the effect of neutron shell blocking is to produce a larger core lepton fraction at neutrino trapping which leads to a larger inner-core mass and hence a stronger post-bounce shock.

Temporal trends (2000–2011) and influences on fishery-independent catch rates for loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) at an important coastal foraging region in the southeastern United States

Seasonal trawling was conducted randomly in coastal (depths of 4.6–17 m) waters from St. Augustine, Florida, (29.9°N) to Winyah Bay, South Carolina (33.1°N), during 2000–03, 2008–09, and 2011 to assess annual trends in the relative abundance of sea turtles. A total of 1262 loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) were captured in 23% (951) of 4207 sampling events. Capture rates (overall and among prevalent 5-cm size classes) were analyzed through the use of a generalized linear model with log link function for the 4097 events that had complete observations for all 25 model parameters. Final models explained 6.6% (70.1–75.0 cm minimum straight-line carapace length [SCLmin]) to 14.9% (75.1–80.0 cm SCLmin) of deviance in the data set. Sampling year, geographic subregion, and distance from shore were retained as significant terms in all final models, and these terms collectively accounted for 6.2% of overall model deviance (range: 4.5–11.7% of variance among 5-cm size classes). We retained 18 parameters only in a subset of final models: 4 as exclusively significant terms, 5 as a mixture of significant or nonsignificant terms, and 9 as exclusively nonsignificant terms. Four parameters also were dropped completely from all final models. The generalized linear model proved appropriate for monitoring trends for this data set that was laden with zero values for catches and was compiled for a globally protected species. Because we could not account for much model deviance, metrics other than those examined in our study may better explain catch variability and, once elucidated, their inclusion in the generalized linear model should improve model fits.

Seston capture by Hydropsyche siltalai and the accuracy of capture efficiency estimates

1. Suspension feeding by caseless caddisfly larvae (Trichoptera) constitutes a major pathway for energy flow, and strongly influences productivity, in streams and rivers. 2. Consideration of the impact of these animals on lotic ecosystems has been strongly influenced by a single study investigating the efficiency of particle capture of nets built by one species of hydropsychid caddisfly. 3. Using water sampling techniques at appropriate spatial scales, and taking greater consideration of local hydrodynamics than previously, we examined the size-frequency distribution of particles captured by the nets of Hydropsyche siltalai. Our results confirm that capture nets are selective in terms of particle size, and in addition suggest that this selectivity is for particles likely to provide the most energy. 4. By incorporating estimates of flow diversion around the nets of caseless caddisfly larvae, we show that capture efficiency (CE) is considerably higher than previously estimated, and conclude that more consideration of local hydrodynamics is needed to evaluate the efficiency of particle capture. 5. We use our results to postulate a mechanistic explanation for a recent example of interspecific facilitation, whereby a reduction of near-bed velocities seen in single species monocultures leads to increased capture rates and local depletion of seston within the region of reduced velocity.

Lagartos (Squamata: Lacertilia) em áreas de floresta e de pastagem em Espigão do Oeste, Rondônia, sudoeste da Amazônia, Brasil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

On the context-dependent scaling of consumer feeding rates

The stability of consumer-resource systems can depend on the form of feeding interactions (i.e. functional responses). Size-based models predict interactions - and thus stability - based on consumer-resource size ratios. However, little is known about how interaction contexts (e.g. simple or complex habitats) might alter scaling relationships. Addressing this, we experimentally measured interactions between a large size range of aquatic predators (4-6400 mg over 1347 feeding trials) and an invasive prey that transitions among habitats: from the water column (3D interactions) to simple and complex benthic substrates (2D interactions). Simple and complex substrates mediated successive reductions in capture rates - particularly around the unimodal optimum - and promoted prey population stability in model simulations. Many real consumer-resource systems transition between 2D and 3D interactions, and along complexity gradients. Thus, Context-Dependent Scaling (CDS) of feeding interactions could represent an unrecognised aspect of food webs, and quantifying the extent of CDS might enhance predictive ecology.

An objective study of acid reflux and cough in children using an ambulatory pHmetry-cough logger

Objective There are no objective ambulatory studies on the temporal relationship between reflux and cough in children. Commercial pHmetry loggers have slow capture rates (0.25 Hz) that limit objective quantification of reflux and cough. The authors aimed to evaluate if there is a temporal association between cough and acid pH in ambulatory children with chronic cough. setting and patients The authors studied children (aged <14 years) with chronic cough, suspected of acid reflux and considered for pHmetry using a specifically built ambulatory pHmetry–cough logger that enabled the simultaneous ambulatory recording of cough and pH with a fast (10 Hz) capture rate. Main outcome measures Coughs within (before and after) 10, 30, 60 and 120 s of a reflux episode (pH<4 for >0.5 s). Results Analysis of 5628 coughs in 20 children. Most coughs (83.9%) were independent of a reflux event. Cough–reflux (median 19, IQR 3–45) and reflux–cough (24.5, 13–51) sequences were equally likely to occur within 120 s. Within the 10 and 30 s time frame, reflux–cough (10 s=median 2.5, IQR 0–7.25; 30 s=6.5, 1.25–22.25) sequences were significantly less frequent than reflux–no cough (10 s=27, IQR 15–65; 30 s=24.5, 14.5–55.5) sequences, (p=0.0001 and p=0.001, respectively). No differences were found for 60 and 120 s time frame. Cough–reflux sequence (median 1.0, IQR 0–8) within 10 s was significantly less (p=0.0001) than no cough–reflux sequences (median 29.5, 15–67), within 30 s (p=0.006) and 60 s (p=0.048) but not within 120 s (p=0.47). Conclusions In children with chronic cough and suspected of having gastro-oesophageal reflux disease, the temporal relationship between acid reflux and cough is unlikely causal.

Trapping success and population analysis of Siren lacertina and Amphiuma means

Siren and Amphiuma are two poorly known genera of aquatic salamanders that occur in the Southeastern United States. A primarily bottom-dwelling existence makes these salamanders difficult to detect with conventional sampling methodologies. Therefore, the current status of their populations is unknown. I compared the capture success of modified crayfish traps and plastic minnow traps in capturing these salamanders. In addition, a mark-recapture study of S. lacertina (Greater siren) and A. means (Two-toed amphiuma) was conducted at Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge (southern Georgia) and at Katharine Ordway Preserve (north-central Florida) from August 2001 until September 2002. Crayfish traps were much more successful than minnow traps in catching siren and amphiuma. Crayfish traps yielded 270 captures for an overall capture success of 16%, whereas minnow traps yielded only 13 captures for an overall success rate of 0.05%. In addition, several marking techniques were evaluated, and of these, only passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags were retained for the duration of the study. Therefore, I recommend this marking technique for long-term monitoring of S. lacertina and A. means. Several variables were found to have significant effects on capture rates of salamanders. A. means were most often captured in summer and the number of captures was positively correlated with water temperature, water level, and rainfall. S. lacertina were most often captured during winter and spring. Number of captures was negatively correlated with water temperature, while no relationship was found with water level or rainfall. Trap day and baiting had no significant effect on number of A. means or S. lacertina captured. Recapture probabilities of both species were low, 0.025-0.03 for S. lacertina and 0.08-0.11 for A. means. Monthly survival rates were high, 0.77-0.97 for A. means and 0.88-1.00 for S. lacertina. Density estimates of 1.3 salamanders/m2 (S. lacertina) and 0.28 salamanders/m2 (A. means) were obtained for Lake Suggs using Jolly-Seber models. Siren and amphiuma make up a substantial part of wetland biomass and can impact many other wetland species. Thus, more attention must be focused on evaluating and monitoring their populations.

Methodologies for a sustainable development of estuarine ecosystems

As zonas costeiras, estuarinas e lagunares são consideradas áreas muito produtivas e dotadas de grande biodiversidade sendo, por isso, consideradas de elevado valor ecológico e económico. No entanto, nas últimas décadas tem vindo a verificar-se um aumento da contaminação destes ecossistemas como resultado de diversas actividades antrópicas. As abordagens actualmente disponíveis para avaliação do impacto da poluição em ecossistemas estuarinos e lagunares apresentam diversos tipos de lacunas, pelo que é importante desenvolver metodologias mais eficazes com organismos autóctones. Neste contexto, o objectivo central desta dissertação consistiu em desenvolver e validar métodos ecologicamente relevantes para avaliação da contaminação estuarina e dos seus efeitos, utilizando o góbio-comum (Pomatoschistus microps), quer como organismo-teste quer como espécie sentinela, devido à importante função que desempenha nas cadeias tróficas de diversos estuários da costa Portuguesa. A Ria de Aveiro foi seleccionada como área de estudo principalmente pelo facto de possuir zonas com diferentes tipos de contaminação predominante e de haver conhecimento científico de base abundante e de elevada qualidade sobre este ecosistema. Na primeira fase do estudo, foram investigados os efeitos agudos de dois hidrocarbonetos aromáticos policíclicos (HAPs) (benzo[a]pireno e antraceno), de um fuel-óleo e de dois metais (cobre e mercúrio) em P. microps, utilizando ensaios laboratoriais baseados em biomarcadores e em parâmetros comportamentais, os quais foram avaliados utilizando um dispositivo expressamente desenvolvido para o efeito, designado por speed performance device (SPEDE). Como biomarcadores foram utilizados parâmetros envolvidos em funções fisiológicas determinantes para a sobrevivência e desempenho dos animais (neurotransmissão, obtenção de energia, destoxificação e defesas anti-oxidantes), nomeadamente a actividade das enzimas acetilcolinesterase, lactato desidrogenase, CYP1A1, glutationa S-transferases, glutationa reductase, glutationa peroxidase, superóxido dismutase, catalase, tendo ainda sido determinados os níveis de peroxidação lipídica como indicador de danos oxidativos. De forma global, os resultados indicaram que os agentes e a mistura testados têm a capacidade de interferir com a função neurológica, de alterar as vias utilizadas para obtenção de energia celular, induzir as defesas antioxidantes e, no caso do cobre e do mercúrio, de causarem peroxidação lipídica. Foram ainda obtidas relações concentração-resposta a nível dos parâmetros comportamentais testados, nomeadamente a capacidade de nadar contra a corrente e a distância percorrida a nadar contra o fluxo de água, sugerindo que os agentes testados podem, por exemplo, diminuir a capacidade de fuga aos predadores, as probabilidades de captura de presas e o sucesso reprodutivo. Na segunda fase, tendo sido já adaptadas técnicas para determinação de vários biomarcadores em P. microps e estudada a sua resposta a dois grupos de poluentes particularmente relevantes em ecossistemas estuarinos e lagunares (metais e HAPs), foi efectuado um estudo de monitorização utilizando P. microps como bioindicador e que incluiu diversos parâmetros ecológicos e ecotoxicológicos, nomedamente: 20 parâmetros indicativos da qualidade da água e do sedimento, concentração de 9 metais em sedimentos e no corpo de P. microps, 8 biomarcadores e 2 índices de condição na espécie seleccionada. A amostragem foi efectuada em quatro locais da Ria de Aveiro, um considerado como referência (Barra) e três com diferentes tipos predominantes de contaminação (Vagueira, Porto de Aveiro e Cais do Bico), sazonalmente, durante um ano. Os resultados obtidos permitiram uma caracterização ecotoxicológica dos locais, incluindo informação sobre a qualidade da água, concentrações de contaminantes ambientais prioritários nos sedimentos e nos tecidos de P. microps, capacidade desta espécie para bioacumular metais, efeitos exercidos pelas complexas misturas de poluentes presentes em cada uma das zonas de amostragem nesta espécie e possíveis consequências para a população. A análise multivariada permitiu analisar de forma integrada todos os resultados, proporcionando informação que não poderia ser obtida analisando os dados de forma compartimentalizada. Em conclusão, os resultados obtidos no âmbito desta dissertação indicam que P. microps possui características adequadas para ser utilizado como organismoteste em ensaios laboratoriais (e.g. abundância, fácil manutenção, permite a determinação de diferentes tipos de critérios de efeito utilizando um número relativamente reduzido de animais, entre outras) e como organismo sentinela em estudos de monitorização da poluição e da qualidade ambiental, estando portanto de acordo com estudos de menor dimensão previamente efectuados. O trabalho desenvolvido permitiu ainda adaptar a P. microps diversas técnicas bioquímicas vulgarmente utilizadas como biomarcadores em Ecotoxicologia e validá-las quer no laboratório quer em cenários reais; desenvolver um novo bioensaio, utilizando um dispositivo de teste especialmente concebido para peixes epibentónicos baseado na performance natatória de uma espécie autóctone e em biomarcadores; relacionar os efeitos a nível bioquímico com parâmetros comportamentais que ao serem afectados podem reduzir de forma drástica e diversificada (e.g. aumento da mortalidade, diminuição do sucesso reprodutivo, redução do crescimento) a contribuição individual para a população. Finalmente, foi validada uma abordagem multidisciplinar, combinando metodologias ecológicas, ecotoxicológicas e químicas que, quando considerada de forma integrada utilizando análises de estatística multivariada, fornece informação científica da maior relevância susceptível de ser utilizada como suporte a medidas de conservação e gestão em estuários e sistemas lagunares.

Habitat Split as a Cause of Local Population Declines of Amphibians with Aquatic Larvae

Most amphibian species have biphasic life histories and undergo an ontogenetic shift from aquatic to terrestrial habitats. In deforested landscapes, streams and forest fragments are frequently disjunct, jeopardizing the life cycle of forest-associated amphibians with aquatic larvae. We tested the impact of habitat split-defined as human-induced disconnection between habitats used by different life-history stages of a species-on four forest-associated amphibian species in a severely fragmented landscape of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We surveyed amphibians in forest fragments with and without streams (referred to as wet and dry fragments, respectively), including the adjacent grass-field matrix. Our comparison of capture rates in dry fragments and nearby streams in the matrix allowed us to evaluate the number of individuals that engaged in high-risk migrations through nonforested habitats. Adult amphibians moved from dry fragments to matrix streams at the beginning of the rainy season, reproduced, and returned at the end of the breeding period. Juveniles of the year moved to dry fragments along with adults. These risky reproductive migrations through nonforested habitats that expose individuals to dehydration, predation, and other hazards may cause population declines in dry fragments. Indeed, capture rates were significantly lower in dry fragments compared with wet fragments. Declining amphibians would strongly benefit from investments in the conservation and restoration of riparian vegetation and corridors linking breeding and nonbreeding areas.

Biologia populacional comparada de duas espécies de heliconius (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) em um ambiente sazonal de floresta atlântica do nordeste brasileiro

Tropical environments often face strong seasonal variations in climate, such as alternate periods of dry and rain, that may often be important influence in the annual X the organisms lives. Here we assess how population dynamics of two butterfly species (Heliconius erato and Heliconius mepomene) respond to environmental and seasonal variations. A mark-release-recapture study carried out in an Atlantic forest reserve, 15 Km from Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, for 3 years, during the dry and rainy season, with three visits weekly done. Information such as species, wing lenght, site of capture, pollen load and phenotype (number of spots) (in H. erato only) were noted for each capture. Seasonal variation exists in capture rates of the two species, with great capture rates during the rainy season. Despite finding differences in the mean density of individuals of the two species among the different collection areas, this difference was only significant between floodplain and central areas, and no influence of seasonality was observed in the mean density between the areas. Seasonality in wing size was only observed for H. erato, with larger wings during the rainy season. Females carried larger pollen loads than males both species, but species were similar. Only males differed seasonally, with larger pollen loads during the rainy season. The distribution of the number of wing spots did not vary between the dry and rainy seasons, and the number of spots in males and females was similar. Therefore, we conclude that there was a strong influence of seasonal variation in the population dynamic of the two Heliconius species, as well as in several aspects of their biology

Habitat Split as a Cause of Local Population Declines of Amphibians with Aquatic Larvae

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Uso de cercas-vivas por aves em uma paisagem fragmentada de mata atlântica semidecídua

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Desenvolvimento de um sistema moving cameras para reconstrução 3D de movimentos submersos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The Ecological Basis for Biogeographic Classification: an Example in Orchid Bees (Apidae: Euglossini)

Biogeography has been difficult to apply as a methodological approach because organismic biology is incomplete at levels where the process of formulating comparisons and analogies is complex. The study of insect biogeography became necessary because insects possess numerous evolutionary traits and play an important role as pollinators. Among insects, the euglossine bees, or orchid bees, attract interest because the study of their biology allows us to explain important steps in the evolution of social behavior and many other adaptive tradeoffs. We analyzed the distribution of morphological characteristics in Colombian orchid bees from an ecological perspective. The aim of this study was to observe the distribution of these attributes on a regional basis. Data corresponding to Colombian euglossine species were ordered with a correspondence analysis and with subsequent hierarchical clustering. Later, and based on community proprieties, we compared the resulting hierarchical model with the collection localities to seek to identify a biogeographic classification pattern. From this analysis, we derived a model that classifies the territory of Colombia into 11 biogeographic units or natural clusters. Ecological assumptions in concordance with the derived classification levels suggest that species characteristics associated with flight performance, nectar uptake, and social behavior are the factors that served to produce the current geographical structure.