Diversité et structure du zooplancton : importance pour la conservation de la biodiversité aquatique en zone urbaine

L'écologie urbaine est un nouveau champ de recherche qui cherche à comprendre les structures et les patrons des communautés et des écosystèmes situés dans des paysages urbains. Les petits plans d’eau sont connus comme des écosystèmes aquatiques qui peuvent contenir une biodiversité considérable pour plusieurs groupes taxonomiques (oiseaux, amphibiens, macroinvertébrés), ce qui en fait des écosystèmes intéressants pour les études de conservation. Cependant, la biodiversité du zooplancton, un élément central des réseaux trophiques aquatiques, n’est pas entièrement connue pour les plans d’eaux urbains et devrait être mieux décrite et comprise. Cette étude a évalué les patrons de biodiversité des communautés zooplanctoniques dans des plans d’eau urbains sur l’Ile de Montréal et leurs sources de variation. Des suggestions pour l’évaluation et la conservation de la biodiversité sont aussi discutées. La biodiversité zooplanctonique des plans d’eaux urbains s’est avérée être assez élevée, avec les cladocères et les rotifères montrant les contributions à la diversité gamma et bêta les plus élevées. Sur l’ensemble des plans d’eau, il y avait une corrélation négative entre les contributions à la bêta diversité des cladocères et des rotifères. Au niveau de chaque plan d'eau, la zone littorale colonisée par des macrophytes s'est avérée être un habitat important pour la biodiversité zooplactonique, contribuant considérablement à la richesse en taxons, souvent avec une différente composition en espèces. Les communautés zooplanctoniques répondaient aux facteurs ascendants et descendants, mais aussi aux pratiques d’entretien, car le fait de vider les plans d’eau en hiver affecte la composition des communautés zooplanctoniques. Les communautés de cladocères dans ces plans d’eau possédaient des quantités variables de diversité phylogénétique, ce qui permet de les classer afin de prioriser les sites à préserver par rapport à la diversité phylogénétique. Le choix des sites à préserver afin de maximiser la diversité phylogénétique devrait être correctement établi, afin d’eviter de faire des choix sous-optimaux. Cependant, pour des taxons tels que les cladocères, pour lesquels les relations phylogénétiques demeurent difficiles à établir, placer une confiance absolue dans un seul arbre est une procédure dangereuse. L’incorporation de l’incertitude phylogénétique a démontré que, lorsqu’elle est prise en compte, plusieurs différences potentielles entre la diversité phylogenétique ne sont plus supportées. Les patrons de composition des communautés différaient entre les plans d’eau, les mois et les zones d’échantillonnage. Etant donné les intéractions sont significatives entres ces facters; ceci indique que tous ces facteurs devraient êtres considérés. L’urbanisation ne semblait pas sélectionner pour un type unique de composition des groupes alimentaires, étant donné que les communautés pouvaient changer entres des assemblages de types alimentaires différents. Les variables environnementales, surtout la couverture du plan d’eau en macrophytes, étaient des facteurs importants pour la biodiversité zooplanctonique, affectant la richesse spécifique de divers groupes taxonomiques et alimentaires. Ces variables affectaient aussi la composition des communautés, mais dans une moindre mesure, étant des variables explicatives modestes, ce qui indiquerait le besoin de considérer d’autres processus.

Bayesian analysis of correlated evolution of discrete characters by reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo

We describe a Bayesian method for investigating correlated evolution of discrete binary traits on phylogenetic trees. The method fits a continuous-time Markov model to a pair of traits, seeking the best fitting models that describe their joint evolution on a phylogeny. We employ the methodology of reversible-jump ( RJ) Markov chain Monte Carlo to search among the large number of possible models, some of which conform to independent evolution of the two traits, others to correlated evolution. The RJ Markov chain visits these models in proportion to their posterior probabilities, thereby directly estimating the support for the hypothesis of correlated evolution. In addition, the RJ Markov chain simultaneously estimates the posterior distributions of the rate parameters of the model of trait evolution. These posterior distributions can be used to test among alternative evolutionary scenarios to explain the observed data. All results are integrated over a sample of phylogenetic trees to account for phylogenetic uncertainty. We implement the method in a program called RJ Discrete and illustrate it by analyzing the question of whether mating system and advertisement of estrus by females have coevolved in the Old World monkeys and great apes.

Accounting for calibration uncertainty in phylogenetic estimation of evolutionary divergence times

The estimation of phylogenetic divergence times from sequence data is an important component of many molecular evolutionary studies. There is now a general appreciation that the procedure of divergence dating is considerably more complex than that initially described in the 1960s by Zuckerkandl and Pauling (1962, 1965). In particular, there has been much critical attention toward the assumption of a global molecular clock, resulting in the development of increasingly sophisticated techniques for inferring divergence times from sequence data. In response to the documentation of widespread departures from clocklike behavior, a variety of local- and relaxed-clock methods have been proposed and implemented. Local-clock methods permit different molecular clocks in different parts of the phylogenetic tree, thereby retaining the advantages of the classical molecular clock while casting off the restrictive assumption of a single, global rate of substitution (Rambaut and Bromham 1998; Yoder and Yang 2000).

Dissimilarities in alignment-free methods for phylogenetic analysis based on genomes

Whole genome sequences are generally accepted as excellent tools for studying evolutionary relationships. Due to the problems caused by the uncertainty in alignment, existing tools for phylogenetic analysis based on multiple alignments could not be directly applied to the whole-genome comparison and phylogenomic studies. There has been a growing interest in alignment-free methods for phylogenetic analysis using complete genome data. The “distances” used in these alignment-free methods are not proper distance metrics in the strict mathematical sense. In this study, we first review them in a more general frame — dissimilarity. Then we propose some new dissimilarities for phylogenetic analysis. Last three genome datasets are employed to evaluate these dissimilarities from a biological point of view.

The first molecular phylogeny of Chilodontidae (Teleostei: Ostariophysi: Characiformes) reveals cryptic biodiversity and taxonomic uncertainty

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Asset specificity and behavioural uncertainty as moderators of the sales growth : employment growth relationship in emerging ventures

Sales growth and employment growth are the two most widely used growth indicators for new ventures; yet, sales growth and employment growth are not interchangeable measures of new venture growth. Rather, they are related, but somewhat independent constructs that respond differently to a variety of criteria. Most of the literature treats this as a methodological technicality. However, sales growth with or without accompanying employment growth has very different implications for managers and policy makers. A better understanding of what drives these different growth metrics has the potential to lead to better decision making. To improve that understanding we apply transaction cost economics reasoning to predict when sales growth will be or will not be accompanied by employment growth. Our results indicate that our predictions are borne out consistently in resource-constrained contexts but not in resource-munificent contexts.

Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Uncertainty avoidance: public sector clients and procurement selection

Purpose: Choosing the appropriate procurement system for construction projects is a complex and challenging task for clients particularly when professional advice has not been sought. To assist with the decision making process, a range of procurement selection tools and techniques have been developed by both academic and industry bodies. Public sector clients in Western Australia (WA) remain uncertain about the pairing of procurement method to bespoke construction project and how this decision will ultimately impact upon project success. This paper examines ‘how and why’ a public sector agency selected particular procurement methods. · Methodology/Approach: An analysis of two focus group workshops (with 18 senior project and policy managers involved with procurement selection) is reported upon · Findings: The traditional lump sum (TLS) method is still the preferred procurement path even though alternative forms such as design and construct, public-private-partnerships could optimize the project outcome. Paradoxically, workshop participants agreed that alternative procurement forms should be considered, but an embedded culture of uncertainty avoidance invariably meant that TLS methods were selected. Senior managers felt that only a limited number of contractors have the resources and experience to deliver projects using the nontraditional methods considered. · Research limitations/implications: The research identifies a need to develop a framework that public sector clients can use to select an appropriate procurement method. A procurement framework should be able to guide the decision-maker rather than provide a prescriptive solution. Learning from previous experiences with regard to procurement selection will further provide public sector clients with knowledge about how to best deliver their projects.

Phylogenetic placement of the sugarcane orange rust pathogen Puccinia kuehnii in a historical and regional context

Sugarcane orange rust, caused by Puccinia kuehnii, was once considered a minor disease in the Australian sugar industry. However, in 2000 a new race of the pathogen devastated the high-performing sugarcane cultivar Q124, and caused the industry Aus$150–210 million in yield losses. At the time of the epidemic, very little was known about the genetic and pathogenic diversity of the fungus in Australia and neighbouring sugar industries. DNA sequence data from three rDNA regions were used to determine the genetic relationships between isolates within two P. kuehnii collections. The first collection comprised only recent Australian field isolates and limited sequence variation was detected within this population. In the second study, Australian isolates were compared with isolates from Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, China and historical herbarium collections. Greater sequence variation was detected in this collection and phylogenetic analyses grouped the isolates into three clades. All isolates from commercial cane fields clustered together including the recent Australianfield isolates and the Australian historical isolate from 1898.The other two clades included rust isolates from wild and garden canes in Indonesia and PNG. These rusts appeared morphologically similar to P. kuehnii and could potentially pose a quarantine threat to the Australian sugar industry. The results have revealed greater diversity in sugarcane rusts than previously thought.

Visualisation of Information Uncertainty : Progress and Challenges

Information uncertainty which is inherent in many real world applications brings more complexity to the visualisation problem. Despite the increasing number of research papers found in the literature, much more work is needed. The aims of this chapter are threefold: (1) to provide a comprehensive analysis of the requirements of visualisation of information uncertainty and their dimensions of complexity; (2) to review and assess current progress; and (3) to discuss remaining research challenges. We focus on four areas: information uncertainty modelling, visualisation techniques, management of information uncertainty modelling, propagation and visualisation, and the uptake of uncertainty visualisation in application domains.

Uncertainty budget in the measurement of typical airborne number, surface area and mass particle distributions

The effects of particulate matter on environment and public health have been widely studied in recent years. A number of studies in the medical field have tried to identify the specific effect on human health of particulate exposure, but agreement amongst these studies on the relative importance of the particles’ size and its origin with respect to health effects is still lacking. Nevertheless, air quality standards are moving, as the epidemiological attention, towards greater focus on the smaller particles. Current air quality standards only regulate the mass of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5). The most reliable method used in measuring Total Suspended Particles (TSP), PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 is the gravimetric method since it directly measures PM concentration, guaranteeing an effective traceability to international standards. This technique however, neglects the possibility to correlate short term intra-day variations of atmospheric parameters that can influence ambient particle concentration and size distribution (emission strengths of particle sources, temperature, relative humidity, wind direction and speed and mixing height) as well as human activity patterns that may also vary over time periods considerably shorter than 24 hours. A continuous method to measure the number size distribution and total number concentration in the range 0.014 – 20 μm is the tandem system constituted by a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) and an Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS). In this paper, an uncertainty budget model of the measurement of airborne particle number, surface area and mass size distributions is proposed and applied for several typical aerosol size distributions. The estimation of such an uncertainty budget presents several difficulties due to i) the complexity of the measurement chain, ii) the fact that SMPS and APS can properly guarantee the traceability to the International System of Measurements only in terms of number concentration. In fact, the surface area and mass concentration must be estimated on the basis of separately determined average density and particle morphology. Keywords: SMPS-APS tandem system, gravimetric reference method, uncertainty budget, ultrafine particles.