Economia do petróleo e desenvolvimento: estudo exploratório sobre as perspectivas do pré-sal brasileiro

A pesquisa analisa as possibilidades abertas pela exploração de petróleo na camada pré-sal, avaliando de que maneira a expansão do setor petrolífero poderá acelerar o crescimento econômico brasileiro e contribuir para novas estratégias de desenvolvimento. A hipótese inicial é que o Brasil enfrenta uma restrição estrutural de balanço de pagamentos, que poderá ser amenizada pela diminuição das importações de petróleo e derivados e pelo aumento do valor exportado no setor. Para avaliá-la são resgatados aspectos históricos e geopolíticos relacionados ao petróleo, assim como são tratadas as características microeconômicas dos recursos naturais não renováveis. Também se consideram questões de ordem macroeconômica, como a especialização produtiva da economia brasileira e sua inserção no comércio internacional, discutindo como o desenvolvimento da indústria petrolífera poderá afetá-las. Para tanto, a investigação fundamenta-se na teoria estruturalista e nos modelos de crescimento com ênfase na restrição externa. O trabalho examina ainda os casos da Rússia, Venezuela e México para avaliar a experiência de países exportadores de petróleo. Como contribuição, um modelo de crescimento é utilizado para realizar simulações acerca do Brasil, cobrindo o período 2013-2020 com a formulação de três cenários. A partir dos resultados discute-se que a necessidade de consecução das metas fiscal e de inflação pode desencadear políticas restritivas que limitam a utilização da folga fiscal e externa, oriundas do pré-sal, para induzir o crescimento. Conclui-se que um círculo virtuoso de desenvolvimento com mudança estrutural depende não apenas da modernização produtiva, mas também, e principalmente, da evolução político-institucional do país

Termos de troca, preço das commodities e o crescimento brasileiro : uma análise sob o prisma da restrição externa

This study aims to investigate the relationship between terms of trade and the long-term growth of Brazilian economy, from the perspective of external constraint, between the period 1994 to 2014. For this purpose, it is based on Thirlwall's (1979) original contribution, in order to empirically test the terms of trade contribution for determining the Brazilian growth potential product equivalent with Balance of Payments equilibriun. Using cointegration method, which seeks to analyze the long-term relationship between the variables, and subdividing the period into two sub-periods, 1994-2004 and 2004-2014, we estimate and compare real and hypothetical income elasticities and predicted and observed growth rates, with and without the terms of trade, for each period. The obteined results show that the inclusion of terms of trade in the empirical procedure to test the validity of Thirlwall's Law lead to higher growth rates obtained by the model (hypothetical), for the entire period 1994-2014 and for the sub-period 2004 -2014. This "theoretical" relaxation of the external constraint, caused by the inclusion of the terms of trade in traditional Thirlwall's rule, overestimated the average real growth rate for these periods, while the traditional Thirlwall's Law - without terms of trade - has adapted better to the real behavior of Brazilian economy. Thus, despite having contributed potentially for the relaxation of external constraint on Brazilian growth, the effect of terms of trade may have been offset by the negative performance of other Balance of Payments components, as capital flows and interest, profits and dividends payments abroad.

Restrição externa, dependência estrutural de commodities primárias e o investimento direto externo no Brasil

As the beginning of the discussion about the reprimarization process of the Brazilian exportations, or about a deindustrialization process of the country foreign sales, this study purpose that the discussion, actually, should be about the existence of the commodities structural dependence as a way to face the foreign restrictions. Therefore the intention is to show that, historically, the way that the Brazilian economy has crossed for its development depends of the foreign capital, mainly in its way of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and in the balance generated by the primary products, which make us try to understand the impact of this capital for the equilibrium of the Brazilian Payment Balance and also for the economy. These points were discussed not only based on the Brazilian classic writers as Francisco Oliveira, Caio Prado Jr. and Celso Furtado, but also using the newest studies which contributes to point the causes and consequences of the external capital dependence in the actual scenario. The conclusions acquired in the end of the study, indicates the fact that the Brazilian specialization in products of low aggregated value is not recent. Brazil is, historically, a competitive country in primary products. At the same time, the country importation always was a pressure factor of the National Payments Balance, being composed by products with more aggregated value. According to some authors, this characteristic of the Brazilian Economy will be surpassed with the economic opening process, which will attract external capital making possible the modernization of the Brazilian productive sector. Therefore, we can claim that the FDI, in the way it has been inserted in the country, does not offer the opportunity to get out of the commodities dependence, as generators of the payment balances, because the country international competitive standard didn t get any important changes, keeping itself out of the step related to the global standard which has been intensified in products with more aggregated value. The changes in the national insertion standard directed to more technological products is really important to surpass the historical scenario of commodities dependence, making the country less vulnerable to external crisis.

Crescimento econômico e restrição externa da economia brasileira: uma análise do padrão das exportações em relação ao BRIC e do Sistema de Inovação do Brasil (1980-2012)

This Master s Thesis aims to use the theoretical models of growth with restricted balance of payments, specifically Kaldor (1970) and Thirlwall (1979) models, to analyze the behavior and the pattern of specialization of Brazilian exports and imports in the last years. It is observed that, in some periods, the pattern of specialization has contributed in restricting long-term growth of the Brazilian economy. It has been hypothesized that overall this is due to lack of structural transformation policies. To achieve this goal, it analyzed the performance of Brazilian exports and imports disaggregating them according to their technological content. The basis for comparison was a group of countries to which Brazil is inserted in, the BRIC. In this regard, the work is a comparative analysis by using descriptive statistics. It is concluded that the low rate of GDP growth experienced by Brazil since the 1980s can be explained in part by the decoupling of the Brazilian National Innovation System (NIS) and the Brazilian productive structure. This would be reducing the income elasticity of exports and raising imports, causing a pattern of specialization intensive primary commodities and labor and low-skill labor

Crescimento econômico e restrição externa: evidências empíricas na economia brasileira (1991-2010)

This study aims to investigate the influence of the balance of payments constrained on economic growth in Brazil from 1991 to 2010. With this order, are shown some of the Keynesian balance of payments constrained growth models, inspired by Thirlwall (1979) and Kaldor (1970), which are supported by important points in common, such as adherence to the principle of effective demand. Given that within this theoretical perspective, there is no consensus about the best model to explain the growth rate allowed by the balance of payments constraint, the results are presented by the representative of the empirical literature that addresses the topic, which are necessary for understand the Brazilian case. From the estimation of the income elasticity of imports (0.85) via autoregressive vectors with error correction (VEC), it was calculated five growth rates of income, as predicted by the models of Thirlwall (1979), Thirlwall and Hussain (1982), Moreno-Brid (1998, 2003) and Lourenço et al. (2011) and compared with the actual growth rate. The empirical analysis has shown that: it can not reject the presence of external constraint in the Brazilian economy, there is a strong similarity in growth rates provided by different modeling suggest that growth with external constraint. In addition, when using data in quarterly for the period after 1990 there are no factors that could cause instability in the parameters of the import function (income elasticity and price elasticity of imports) within the period, which indicates that the structural break widely associated with the year 1994 was not confirmed by this study

Restrição externa e taxa de câmbio no Brasil: 1980-2008

The objective of this study is to examine if economic growth in Brazil was blocking due to external constraints, that is, in consequence of its Balance of Payments. We work with the approach first proposed by Thirlwall (1979) which was later modified by Lima and Carvalho (2009). We can conclude that economic growth was restricted by the external sector, which is consistent with the economic history of Brazil, and verify that the real exchange rate, and to influence the trade balance in the course run, also excerce some influence on this account balance of payments in the long run.

A poupança externa no desenvolvimentismo clássico e no novo desenvolvimentismo

Esta dissertação discute a crítica do Novo Desenvolvimentismo ao Desenvolvimentismo Clás-sico em relação ao crescimento com poupança externa. Por meio da análise de trabalhos dos principais autores do Desenvolvimentismo Clássico que são considerados os pioneiros da Teo-ria do Desenvolvimento Econômico, identificou-se que de forma geral seus autores têm posição favorável ao financiamento do desenvolvimento por recursos externos para sanar os problemas de carência de poupança e restrição externa dos países subdesenvolvidos, colocando, porém, condicionalidades para o uso desses recursos. Já a Teoria Novo Desenvolvimentista apresenta uma crítica contra intuitiva a essa estratégia por meio da construção de um modelo teórico no qual demonstra que ter o desenvolvimento financiado com poupança externa, na verdade, é uma armadilha que é sustentada por alto patamar de juros e traz a apreciação da moeda nacional, reduz o acesso dos empresários nacionais ao mercado externo e interno, traz semi-estagnação econômica e crises cíclicas de Balanço de Pagamentos, o que torna a economia nacional instável financeiramente. Esse modelo é corroborado por evidências em diversos trabalhos que testaram algumas das hipóteses da Teoria Novo Desenvolvimentista. Por fim, a Teoria Novo Desenvolvimentista pode ser considerada uma nova teoria que embora se baseie no Desenvolvimentismo Clássico consegue mostrar as causas e consequências dessa estratégia de crescimento com poupança externa, incorporando em sua teoria o que para o Desenvolvimentismo Clássico não era teoricamente explicado ou era visto como panaceia para o desenvolvimento, algo inevitável. Por fim, a Macroeconomia Desenvolvimentista conclui e propõe que o desenvolvimento econômico é financiado por recursos nacionais, que o capital se faz em casa.

Desenvolvimento de sistemas de aditivos químicos para aplicação em cimentações de poços de petróleo

The primary cementing is an important step in the oilwell drilling process, ensuring the mechanical stability of the well and the hydraulic isolation between casing and formation. For slurries to meet the requirements for application in a certain well, some care in the project should be taken into account to obtain a cement paste with the proper composition. In most cases, it is necessary to add chemicals to the cement to modify its properties, according to the operation conditions and thus obtain slurries that can move inside the jacket providing a good displacement to the interest area. New technologies of preparation and use of chemicals and modernization of technological standards in the construction industry have resulted in the development of new chemical additives for optimizing the properties of building materials. Products such as polycarboxylate superplasticizers provide improved fluidity and cohesion of the cement grains, in addition to improving the dispersion with respect to slurries without additives. This study aimed at adapting chemical additives used in civil construction to be used use in oilwell cement slurries systems, using Portland cement CPP-Special Class as the hydraulic binder. The chemical additives classified as defoamer, dispersant, fluid loss controller and retarder were characterized by infrared absorption spectroscopy, thermogravimetric analyses and technological tests set by the API (American Petroleum Institute). These additives showed satisfactory results for its application in cement slurries systems for oil wells. The silicone-based defoamer promoted the reduction of air bubbles incorporated during the stirring of the slurries. The dispersant significantly reduced the rheological parameters of the systems studied. The tests performed with the fluid loss controller and the retarder also resulted in suitable properties for application as chemical additives in cement slurries

Desenvolvimento de sistemas embarcados para redes de sensores e atuadores sem fio aplicadas em unidades de elevação de petróleo do tipo Plunger-Lift

The Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) methods applied to the lifting of oil present as an area with growing demand technical and scientific in view of the optimizations that can be carried forward with existing processes. This dissertation has as main objective to present the development of embedded systems dedicated to a wireless sensor network based on IEEE 802.15.4, which applies the ZigBee protocol, between sensors, actuators and the PLC (Programmable Logic Controller), aiming to solve the present problems in the deployment and maintenance of the physical communication of current elevation oil units based on the method Plunger-Lift. Embedded systems developed for this application will be responsible for acquiring information from sensors and control actuators of the devices present at the well, and also, using the Modbus protocol to make this network becomes transparent to the PLC responsible for controlling the production and delivery information for supervisory SISAL

Desenvolvimento de pastas leves utilizando incorporadores de ar para aplicação em poços de petróleo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Desenvolvimento nacional, desenvolvimento regional e moeda: notas teóricas à luz da economia política do desenvolvimento

This work analyses the ability of National States and regions have to formulations development strategies. Redeeming the initial development concept as a conflictual process, the hypothesis is that it presents internal and external constraints, as the latter have a higher preponderance, revealed the role played by money. In this case, one can point to as sub-hypothesis that the growth models with external constraint, mainly through the balance of payments, may illustrate the fact that countries are subject to international economic interactions that limit the possibility of bringing acylating strategies well successful in overcoming backwardness. For the specific case of regions, indicates that the external constraint remains an element of embarrassment for regional development, but redeems itself the center-periphery relations in this context to discuss the role of monetary and financial system as an explanation for the disparities regional income. On the domestic front, we highlight the importance of social structures of accumulation as an element of internal cohesion necessary to achieve successful development trajectories. It points also to the importance of the State in the process rescuing some of the main theoretical contributions of the political economy of development, incorporating the concept of globalization on theoretical frameworks presented. This construction where development depends on the actions of external and internal conditions, where money plays a key role as a guideline for reflections on regional development. The attempt was to transplant our considerations on the general development to address the case of regions. Finally, we conclude by greater confidence in the hypothesis and sub-hypotheses of departure, which led to propositions of economic policies

Desenvolvimento gonadal de fêmeas de matrinxã, Brycon amazonicus, submetidas a restrição alimentar

O presente estudo avaliou o efeito de ciclos de restrição alimentar e realimentação (2/3 dias), aplicados durante seis meses antes da desova, no desenvolvimento gonadal de matrinxã. Na ocasião da desova, fêmeas alimentadas diariamente e submetidas ao regime alimentar experimental, selecionadas para a indução hormonal, foram sacrificadas para retirada das gônadas e do fígado, com os quais se calculou o IGS (índice gonadossomático) e o IHS (índice hepatossomático), sendo os ovários processados para análise histológica. Não houve alteração no peso relativo dos ovários e fígado, e o desenvolvimento gonadal não foi afetado pelo esquema alimentar. Os valores de IGS foram de 5,09±4,98% e 9,79±4,17% e os de IHS foram de 0,84±0,07% e 0,91±0,11%, para as fêmeas controle e experimentais, respectivamente, sem diferenças significativas entre os grupos. Os ovários de peixes dos dois grupos apresentaram as mesmas características do estádio maduro, com predominância de ovócitos na fase final de maturação, repletos de vitelo. O estudo indica que a restrição alimentar não afetou a preparação das fêmeas para a reprodução e que ciclos adequados de restrição e realimentação poderão ser aplicados na criação do matrinxã, assegurando menores custos de produção.

Desenvolvimento de sistemas de aditivos químicos para aplicação em cimentações de poços de petróleo

The primary cementing is an important step in the oilwell drilling process, ensuring the mechanical stability of the well and the hydraulic isolation between casing and formation. For slurries to meet the requirements for application in a certain well, some care in the project should be taken into account to obtain a cement paste with the proper composition. In most cases, it is necessary to add chemicals to the cement to modify its properties, according to the operation conditions and thus obtain slurries that can move inside the jacket providing a good displacement to the interest area. New technologies of preparation and use of chemicals and modernization of technological standards in the construction industry have resulted in the development of new chemical additives for optimizing the properties of building materials. Products such as polycarboxylate superplasticizers provide improved fluidity and cohesion of the cement grains, in addition to improving the dispersion with respect to slurries without additives. This study aimed at adapting chemical additives used in civil construction to be used use in oilwell cement slurries systems, using Portland cement CPP-Special Class as the hydraulic binder. The chemical additives classified as defoamer, dispersant, fluid loss controller and retarder were characterized by infrared absorption spectroscopy, thermogravimetric analyses and technological tests set by the API (American Petroleum Institute). These additives showed satisfactory results for its application in cement slurries systems for oil wells. The silicone-based defoamer promoted the reduction of air bubbles incorporated during the stirring of the slurries. The dispersant significantly reduced the rheological parameters of the systems studied. The tests performed with the fluid loss controller and the retarder also resulted in suitable properties for application as chemical additives in cement slurries