Testing for volatility persistence change: The effect of the credit crisis on the Portuguese banks

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Real convergence in per capita output and growth in Eurozone: A time-series approach

The real convergence hypothesis has spurred a myriad of empirical tests and approaches in the economic literature. This Work Project intends to test for real output and growth convergence in all N(N-1)/2 possible pairs of output and output growth gaps of 14 Eurozone countries. This paper follows a time-series approach, as it tests for the presence of unit roots and persistence changes in the above mentioned pairs of output gaps, as well as for the existence of growth convergence with autoregressive models. Overall, significantly greater evidence has been found to support growth convergence rather than output convergence in our sample.

“Am i really all the things that are outside of me?” - Estudo correlacional sobre persistência pessoal e vinculação

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Psicologia Aplicada para obtenção de grau de Mestre na especialidade de Psicologia Clínica.

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.

Institutional Persistence and Change in England's Common Law: 1700-1865

Institutions are widely regarded as important, even ultimate drivers of economic growth and performance. A recent mainstream of institutional economics has concentrated on the effect of persisting, often imprecisely measured institutions and on cataclysmic events as agents of noteworthy institutional change. As a consequence, institutional change without large-scale shocks has received little attention. In this dissertation I apply a complementary, quantitative-descriptive approach that relies on measures of actually enforced institutions to study institutional persistence and change over a long time period that is undisturbed by the typically studied cataclysmic events. By placing institutional change into the center of attention one can recognize different speeds of institutional innovation and the continuous coexistence of institutional persistence and change. Specifically, I combine text mining procedures, network analysis techniques and statistical approaches to study persistence and change in England’s common law over the Industrial Revolution (1700-1865). Based on the doctrine of precedent - a peculiarity of common law systems - I construct and analyze the apparently first citation network that reflects lawmaking in England. Most strikingly, I find large-scale change in the making of English common law around the turn of the 19th century - a period free from the typically studied cataclysmic events. Within a few decades a legal innovation process with low depreciation rates (1 to 2 percent) and strong past-persistence transitioned to a present-focused innovation process with significantly higher depreciation rates (4 to 6 percent) and weak past-persistence. Comparison with U.S. Supreme Court data reveals a similar U.S. transition towards the end of the 19th century. The English and U.S. transitions appear to have unfolded in a very specific manner: a new body of law arose during the transitions and developed in a self-referential manner while the existing body of law lost influence, but remained prominent. Additional findings suggest that Parliament doubled its influence on the making of case law within the first decades after the Glorious Revolution and that England’s legal rules manifested a high degree of long-term persistence. The latter allows for the possibility that the often-noted persistence of institutional outcomes derives from the actual persistence of institutions.

Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

History matters: relating paths and rates of landscape change to butterfly species decline

Western European landscapes have drastically changed since the 1950s, with agricultural intensifications and the spread of urban settlements considered the most important drivers of this land-use/land-cover change. Losses of habitat for fauna and flora have been a direct consequence of this development. In the present study, we relate butterfly occurrence to land-use/land-cover changes over five decades between 1951 and 2000. The study area covers the entire Swiss territory. The 10 explanatory variables originate from agricultural statistics and censuses. Both state as well as rate was used as explanatory variables. Species distribution data were obtained from natural history collections. We selected eight butterfly species: four species occur on wetlands and four occur on dry grasslands. We used cluster analysis to track land-use/land-cover changes and to group communes based on similar trajectories of change. Generalized linear models were applied to identify factors that were significantly correlated with the persistence or disappearance of butterfly species. Results showed that decreasing agricultural areas and densities of farms with more than 10 ha of cultivated land are significantly related with wetland species decline, and increasing densities of livestock seem to have favored disappearance of dry grassland species. Moreover, we show that species declines are not only dependent on land-use/land-cover states but also on the rates of change; that is, the higher the transformation rate from small to large farms, the higher the loss of dry grassland species. We suggest that more attention should be paid to the rates of landscape change as feasible drivers of species change and derive some management suggestions.

How does monetary policy change? evidence on inflation targeting countries

We examine the evolution of monetary policy rules in a group of inflation targeting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden and the United Kingdom) applying moment- based estimator at time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. Using this novel flexible framework, our main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy rules change gradually pointing to the importance of applying time-varying estimation framework. Second, the interest rate smoothing parameter is much lower that what previous time-invariant estimates of policy rules typically report. External factors matter for all countries, albeit the importance of exchange rate diminishes after the adoption of inflation targeting. Third, the response of interest rates on inflation is particularly strong during the periods, when central bankers want to break the record of high inflation such as in the U.K. or in Australia at the beginning of 1980s. Contrary to common wisdom, the response becomes less aggressive after the adoption of inflation targeting suggesting the positive effect of this regime on anchoring inflation expectations. This result is supported by our finding that inflation persistence as well as policy neutral rate typically decreased after the adoption of inflation targeting.

Climate change impact on biodiversity in Switzerland: a review. Journal for Nature Conservation

A noticeable increase in mean temperature has already been observed in Switzerland and summer temperatures up to 4.8 K warmer are expected by 2090. This article reviews the observed impacts of climate change on biodiversity and consider some perspectives for the future at the national level. The following impacts are already evident for all considered taxonomic groups: elevation shifts of distribution toward mountain summits, spread of thermophilous species, colonisation by new species from warmer areas and phenological shifts. Additionally, in the driest areas, increasing droughts are affecting tree survival and fish species are suffering from warm temperatures in lowland regions. These observations are coherent with model projections, and future changes will probably follow the current trends. These changes will likely cause extinctions for alpine species (competition, loss of habitat) and lowland species (temperature or drought stress). In the very urbanised Swiss landscape, the high fragmentation of the natural ecosystems will hinder the dispersal of many species towards mountains. Moreover, disruptions in species interactions caused by individual migration rates or phenological shifts are likely to have consequences for biodiversity. Conversely, the inertia of the ecosystems (species longevity, restricted dispersal) and the local persistence of populations will probably result in lower extinction rates than expected with some models, at least in 21st century. It is thus very difficult to estimate the impact of climate change in terms of species extinctions. A greater recognition by society of the intrinsic value of biodiversity and of its importance for our existence will be essential to put in place effective mitigation measures and to safeguard a maximum number of native species.

Continuity and change in the gender segregation of the medical profession in Britain and France

It is a well established fact that the entry of women into higher-level professional occupations has not resulted in their equal distribution within these occupations. Indeed, the emergence and persistence of horizontal and vertical gender segregation within the professions has been at the heart of the development of a range of alternative theoretical perspectives on both the "feminisation process" and the future of the "professions"more generally. Through an in-depth comparative analysis of the recent changes in the organisation and administration of the medical profession in Britain and France, this paper draws upon statistical data and biographical interviews with male and female general practitioners (GPs) in both countries in order to discuss and review a variety of approaches that have been adopted to explain and analyse the "eminisation" process of higher-level professions. Our conclusions review the theoretical debates in the light of the evidence we have presented. It is argued that, despite important elements of continuity in respect of gendered occupational structuring in both countries, national variations in both professional and domestic gendered architectures lead to different outcomes as far as the extent and patterns of internal occupational segregation are concerned. Both female and male doctors are currently seeking - with some effect - to resist thepressures of medicine on family life.

Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review

Based on conclusions drawn from general climatic impact assessment in mountain regions, the review synthesizes results relevant to the European Alps published mainly from 1994 onward in the fields of population genetics, ecophysiology, phenology, phytogeography, modeling, paleoecology and vegetation dynamics. Other important factors of global change interacting synergistically with climatic factors are also mentioned, such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, eutrophication, ozone or changes in land-use. Topics addressed are general species distribution and populations (persistence, acclimation, genetic variability, dispersal, fragmentation, plant/animal interaction, species richness, conservation), potential response of vegetation (ecotonal shift - area, physiography - changes in the composition, structural changes), phenology, growth and productivity, and landscape. In conclusion, the European Alps appear to have a natural inertia and thus to tolerate an increase of 1-2 K of mean air temperature as far as plant species and ecosystems are concerned in general. However, the impact of land-use is very likely to negate this buffer in many areas. For a change of the order of 3 K or more, profound changes may be expected.

Gleevec, an Abl family inhibitor, produces a profound change in cell shape and migration (in press)

The issue of how contractility and adhesion are related to cell shape and migration pattern remains largely unresolved. In this paper we report that Gleevec (Imatinib), an Abl family kinase inhibitor, produces a profound change in the shape and migration of rat bladder tumor cells (NBTII) plated on collagen-coated substrates. Cells treated with Gleevec adopt a highly spread D-shape and migrate more rapidly with greater persistence. Accompanying this more spread state is an increase in integrin-mediated adhesion coupled with increases in the size and number of discrete adhesions. In addition, both total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy (TIRFM) and interference reflection microscopy (IRM) revealed a band of small punctate adhesions with rapid turnover near the cell leading margin. These changes led to an increase in global cell-substrate adhesion strength, as assessed by laminar flow experiments. Gleevec-treated cells have greater RhoA activity which, via myosin activation, led to an increase in the magnitude of total traction force applied to the substrate. These chemical and physical alterations upon Gleevec treatment produce the dramatic change in morphology and migration that is observed.

The Japanese Business System: Key Features and Prospects for Change

This paper argues that the Japanese business system cannot be adequately understood without extending the focus of analysis beyond the individual firm to the vertical keiretsu, or business group. The vertical group or keiretsu structure was first identified and studied in the auto and electronics industries, where it is most strongly marked, but it characterizes virtually all sectors, service industries as well as manufacturing. Large industrial vertical keiretsu are composed of subsidiaries engaged in three distinct types of activities (manufacturing, marketing, and quasirelated business). The coordination and control systems are built on the flows of products, financial resources, information and technology, and people across formal company boundaries, with the parent firm controlling the key flows. The paper examines the prevailing explanations first for the emergence and then for the persistence of the vertical group structure, and looks at the current pressures for change and adaptation in the system.

Seeds of change: The value of using Rhinanthus minor in grassland restoration

Question: What is the value of using Rhinanthus minor in grassland restoration and can restrictions on its establishment be overcome? Location: England (United Kingdom). Methods: Two experiments were established to determine the efficacy of inoculating R. minor on a suite of four agriculturally improved grasslands and the efficacy of using R. minor in grassland restoration. In Experiment 1, the effect of herbicide gap creation on the establishment and persistence of R. minor in grasslands ranging in productivity was investigated with respect to sward management. In Exp. 2, R. minor was sown at 1000 seeds/m(2) in conjunction with a standard meadow mix over a randomized plot design into Lolium perenne grassland of moderate productivity. The treatment of scarification was investigated as a treatment to promote R. minor. Results: Gap size had a significant role in the establishment and performance of R. minor, especially the 30 cm diameter gaps (Exp. 1). However, R. minor failed to establish long-term persistent populations in all of the agriculturally improved grasslands. In Exp. 2, establishment of R. minor was increased by scarification and its presence was associated with a significant increase in Shannon diversity and the number of sown and unsown species. Values of grass above-ground biomass were significantly lower in plots sown with R. minor, but values of total above-ground biomass (including R. minor) and forb biomass (not including R. minor) were not affected. Conclusions: The value of introducing R. minor into species-poor grassland to increase diversity has been demonstrated, but successful establishment was dependent on grassland type. The scope for using R. minor in grassland restoration schemes is therefore conditional, although establishment can be enhanced through disturbance such as sward scarification.