Economic crisis and tourism competitiveness in Spain: permanent effects or transitory shocks?

This paper considers the influence of business cycles and economic crises on Spain's tourism competitiveness. This competitiveness is measured by its share in world tourism. Analysing the presence of unit roots in the market share series from 1958 to 2010, the permanent effects of economic crises on competitiveness are evaluated. The evidence from standard linear unit root tests indicates that crises on Spanish market shares are highly persistent. When we account for endogenously determined structural breaks, we obtain greater support for stationarity, but breakpoints are identified with major economic crises. Therefore the main conclusion obtained is that the effects of the economic shocks are not neutral on competitiveness, with the negative effects being more persistent in highly intensive crises. These crises reinforce a natural downward trend of the Spanish world tourism market share caused by the natural emergence of new competing destinations and by the maturity of the Spain's principal tourism product.

The effects of economic crises on tourism success: an integrated model

This paper provides a theoretical model of the influence of economic crises on tourism destination performance. It discusses the temporary and permanent effects of economic crises on the global market shares of tourism destinations through a series of potential transmission mechanisms based on the main economic competitiveness determinants identified in the literature. The proposed model explains the non-neutrality of economic shocks in tourism competitiveness. The model is tested on Spain's tourism industry, which is among the leaders of the global tourism sector, for the period 1970–2013 using non-linear econometric techniques. The empirical analysis confirms that the proposed model is appropriate for explaining the changes in the market positions caused by the economic crises.

Memory of Recessions

This paper reviews the evidence on the effects of recessions on potential output. In contrast to the assumption in mainstream macroeconomic models that economic fluctuations do not change potential output paths, the evidence is that they do in the case of recessions. A model is proposed to explain this phenomenon, based on an analogy with water flows in porous media. Because of the discrete adjustments made by heterogeneous economic agents in such a world, potential output displays hysteresis with regard to aggregate demand shocks, and thus retains a memory of the shocks associated with recessions.

Are the high-growth recovery periods over?

We present evidence about the loss of the so-called "plucking effect", that is, a high-growth phase of the cycle typically observed at the end of recessions. This result matches the popular belief, presented informally by different authors, that the current recession will have permanent effects, or that the current recession will have an L shape versus the old-time recessions that have always had a V shape. Furthermore, we show that the loss of the "plucking effect" can explain part of the Great Moderation. We postulate that these two phenomena may be due to changes in inventory management brought about by improvements in information and communications technologies.

Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for milk production of Guzerat cows using orthogonal Legendre polynomials

The objective of this work was to compare random regression models for the estimation of genetic parameters for Guzerat milk production, using orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Records (20,524) of test-day milk yield (TDMY) from 2,816 first-lactation Guzerat cows were used. TDMY grouped into 10-monthly classes were analyzed for additive genetic effect and for environmental and residual permanent effects (random effects), whereas the contemporary group, calving age (linear and quadratic effects) and mean lactation curve were analized as fixed effects. Trajectories for the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled by means of a covariance function employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials ranging from the second to the fifth order. Residual variances were considered in one, four, six, or ten variance classes. The best model had six residual variance classes. The heritability estimates for the TDMY records varied from 0.19 to 0.32. The random regression model that used a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and a fifth-order polynomial for the permanent environmental effect is adequate for comparison by the main employed criteria. The model with a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and that with a fourth-order for the permanent environmental effect could also be employed in these analyses.

Three essays on the determinants of output, inflation and interest rates

Résumé: Output, inflation and interest rates are key macroeconomic variables, in particular for monetary policy. In modern macroeconomic models they are driven by random shocks which feed through the economy in various ways. Models differ in the nature of shocks and their transmission mechanisms. This is the common theme underlying the three essays of this thesis. Each essay takes a different perspective on the subject: First, the thesis shows empirically how different shocks lead to different behavior of interest rates over the business cycle. For commonly analyzed shocks (technology and monetary policy errors), the patterns square with standard models. The big unknown are sources of inflation persistence. Then the thesis presents a theory of monetary policy, when the central bank can better observe structural shocks than the public. The public will then seek to infer the bank's extra knowledge from its policy actions and expectation management becomes a key factor of optimal policy. In a simple New Keynesian model, monetary policy becomes more concerned with inflation persistence than otherwise. Finally, the thesis points to the huge uncertainties involved in estimating the responses to structural shocks with permanent effects.

Componentes de (co)variância e parâmetros genéticos de características de crescimento da raça Simental no Brasil

Informações de genealogia e produção, cedidas pela Associação Brasileira de Criadores da Raça Simental (ABCRS), relativas aos pesos desde o nascimento até um ano de idade, foram utilizadas para estimar, sob modelos alternativos, os componentes de variância e os parâmetros genéticos em animais da raça Simental no Brasil. A matriz de parentesco incluiu 25.812 animais dos quais 7587 com dados de produção. O modelo 1 contém, além do erro, o efeito genético direto. Os modelos seguintes contêm os componentes do modelo 1, mais o efeito permanente de ambiente materno (modelo 2), ou o componente genético materno (modelo 3), ambos os componentes (modelo 5), os componentes do modelo 3 mais a covariância entre os efeitos genéticos direto e materno (modelo 4) e todos os componentes citados (modelo 6). Os modelos foram comparados pelo teste de razão de verossimilhança pelo chi² (P<0,01). Os componentes de variância e os valores de herdabilidades, estimados para os efeitos direto e materno, foram decrescentes, desde o modelo 1 até o modelo 6, na razão direta em que o modelo incorpora mais efeitos aleatórios. Para a fase de aleitamento foi encontrada variância genética nula, entretanto, alto valor para a variância de ambiente permanente. Os efeitos maternos, genético e de ambiente permanente são importantes para a raça Simental no Brasil e devem ser considerados em programas de seleção. Entretanto, os valores mais elevados de herdabilidade materna, encontrados com modelos sem efeito de ambiente permanente, sugerem que o método utilizado não discrimina apropriadamente esses efeitos, oriundos de mesma fonte de variação.

Análise de características de crescimento da raça Simental

Registros de pesos ao nascimento, aos 100, 205, 365 e 550 dias de idade, de 7587 animais controlados pela Associação Brasileira de Criadores da Raça Simental, criados em 150 fazendas e em diversos estados do Brasil, foram usados para estimar os componentes de variância e os parâmetros genéticos dessas características. O peso padronizado aos 205 dias (desmama) foi usado como característica âncora. O aplicativo MTDFREML, sob modelo animal completo, foi utilizado para análise dos dados. As estimativas de herdabilidades total, direta e materna e as correlações genéticas entre os efeitos materno e direto e os maternos permanentes foram obtidas mediante análises bicaracterísticas. Os seguintes valores foram encontrados: 0,23, 0,22, 0,05, -0,10, 0,07 para peso ao nascer; 0,09, 0,08, 0,00, 0,85, 0,17 para peso aos 100 dias de idade; 0,13, 0,13, 0,05, -0,17, 0,02 para peso aos 205 dias de idade; 0,15, 0,19, 0,06, -0,41, 0,03 para peso aos 365 dias de idade. A herdabilidade direta estimada para o peso aos 550 dias de idade, na análise bicaracterística com o peso à desmama, foi de 0,24. Exceto para peso ao nascimento (moderado), as correlações genética, fenotípica e ambiente entre peso à desmama e as outras características foram altas e positivas. Os efeitos maternos foram importantes e devem ser incluídos nos programas de melhoramento da raça Simental.

Use of sneaker rush and symptoms occurrence of skeletal muscle (SME) in Ballerina

Introduction: Technical literature shows high frequencies of injuries occurring in classical ballet dancers; however, only limited information about the permanent effects of chronic diseases are mentioned. Objective: To compare the presence of MSD among dancers who wear pointe shoes and those who do not. Methods: The research was conducted at the 27th Festival of Joinville in Santa Catarina. The study had the participation of 111 dancers, 88 of whom wore pointe shoes while 23 did not. Specific procedures were used to obtain information related to MSD and foot injuries caused by dancing. Results: The most affected parts were the knees (29.7% with pointe shoes versus 39% without), spine (26.4% with pointe shoes versus 22% without), and ankle/foot (20% with pointe shoes versus 12.2% without). Through odds ratio and respective confidence intervals (IC95%), the study identified protection factor in the knees (0.24; CI95% - 0.09-0.64) and legs (0.11; CI95% - 0.02-0.65) for dancers who wear pointe shoes. It was found that the risk of injuries in specific structures of the foot is significantly higher among those dancers. In this case, the appearance of bunions (9.74; CI95% - 1.25-75,99), calluses on the toes (3.46; CI95% - 1.29-9.27) and the association of the three (4.47; CI95% - 1.69-11.83) were those that showed an increased risk factor compared to dancers who do not stand en pointe. Conclusion: The use of pointe shoes in elite Brazilian dancers was associated to lower occurrence of MSD in the knee and leg, however it was strongly associated to foot injuries.

Estimação de parâmetros genéticos para produção de leite e seus constituintes em búfalas

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estimação de parâmetros genéticos para características produtivas em búfalos (Bubalus bubalis) na Amazônia Oriental

O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar parâmetros genéticos para características produtivas, tais como: produção de leite (PL), produção de gordura (PG), duração da lactação (DL) e produção de leite por dia de intervalo de parto (PLDIDP) em búfalos (Bubalus bubalis) na Amazônia Oriental. O trabalho foi realizado na fazenda “Dr. Felisberto Camargo” de propriedade da EMBRAPA/CPATU, onde foram analisados registros produtivos colhidos no período compreendido entre 1967 a 2005. Foram analisados um total de 1.182 registros de fêmeas bubalinas da raça Murrah e seus mestiços. As médias observadas e os desvios-padrãopara PL, PG, DL e PLDIDP foram 1.663,84 ±343,60, 116,84 ±29,71, 269,89 ±56,36 e 3,88 ±1,15 respectivamente. Os parâmetros genéticos foram estimados por meio do método de Máxima Verossimilhança Restrita processada por meio de análises de bicaracterísticas, sendo as características como a produção de leite e gordura consideradas como efeitos fixos a época de parto, grupo genético e ordem de parto do animal, além da cováriavel duração da lactação. As estimativas de herdabilidade (h²) encontrada para as características PL, PG, DL e PLDIDP foram 0,25, 0,18, 0,08 e 0,09 respectivamente, com repetibilidade (r) para PL, PG e DL de 0,33, 0,29 e 0,10 respectivamente. As correlações genéticas entre as características foram 0,93(PL-PG), 0,76 (PL-DL), 0,99 (PL-PLDIDP), 0,89 (PG-DL), 0,87 (PG-PLDIDP) e -0,27 (DLPLDIDP). No rebanho estudado existe expressiva percentagem de animais que foram superiores geneticamente em relação à média da população para as características. Existe considerável variabilidade genética aditiva para as características estudadas, sendo que esta variabilidade pode ser utilizada para promover o melhoramento genético do rebanho.

Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for milk production of Guzerat cows using orthogonal Legendre polynomials

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Radical Ambition: A Portrait of the Toronto New Left, 1958-1985

This thesis examines the rise and decline of the New Left in Toronto from 1958 to 1985. It argues that New Leftism — whose three leading ideals were self-management, national liberation, and community — arose as much from the Old Left as it did from the peace movement. In contrast to earlier readings that interpret the New Left narrowly — essentially, as the combined forces of the white student and peace movements evident mainly on university campuses — this thesis documents the extent to which New Leftism, interpreted as a political formation, provided a framework for a diversity of radical social movements, especially feminism, Black Power, gay liberation, resistance to the capitalist redevelopment of the city, and transnational solidarity. It also questions a declensionist narrative that adopts a “decadal” approach to the radicalism of the sixties, according to which 1970 spelled the end of “60s” radicalism. Quite the contrary, this thesis argues: in Toronto, it would be truer to say that 1970s were “the sixties,” in that only in this later decade did many New Left movements attain their full maturity. New Leftists successfully challenged a host of institutions, sometimes with permanent effects. The educational system was transformed. Cultural institutions and practices were revolutionized. Questions of race and gender, once peripheral to the left, were made central to it. Democratic community institutions became far more powerful. A token of the strength and durability of the New Left in Toronto was the extent to which it remained the bête noir of a series of other radical groups upholding the model of the vanguard communist party — which challenged the New Leftists’ prominence but many members of which often wound up agreeing with their positions. It was only in the early 1980s, with the ascent of a new right, that Toronto’s New Left unmistakably entered a period of decline. Yet, even then, many of its key themes were picked up by fast-growing anarchist and socialist feminist currents. Far from constituting a minor phenomenon, Toronto’s New Left, one of the largest movements for social justice in Canadian history, bequeathed to its progressive successors an imposing legacy of struggle and cultural achievements. It is the purpose of this thesis to evaluate, both critically and sympathetically, the extent to which the New Left attained its radical ambition.

Does Final Energy Demand in Portugal Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis

In this paper, we measure the degree of fractional integration in final energy demand in Portugal using an ARFIMA model with and without adjustments for seasonality. We consider aggregate energy demand as well as final demand for petroleum, electricity, coal, and natural gas. Our findings suggest the presence of long memory in all of the components of energy demand. All fractional-difference parameters are positive and lower than 0.5 indicating that the series are stationary, although with mean reversion patterns slower than in the typical short-run processes. These results have important implications for the design of energy policies. As a result of the long-memory in final energy demand, the effects of temporary policy shocks will tend to disappear slowly. This means that even transitory shocks have long lasting effects. Given the temporary nature of these effects, however, permanent effects on final energy demand require permanent policies. This is unlike what would be suggested by the more standard, but much more limited, unit root approach, which would incorrectly indicate that even transitory policies would have permanent effects

Do Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Consumption Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis

In this article we use an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average approach to measure the degree of fractional integration of aggregate world CO2 emissions and its five components – coal, oil, gas, cement, and gas flaring. We find that all variables are stationary and mean reverting, but exhibit long-term memory. Our results suggest that both coal and oil combustion emissions have the weakest degree of long-range dependence, while emissions from gas and gas flaring have the strongest. With evidence of long memory, we conclude that transitory policy shocks are likely to have long-lasting effects, but not permanent effects. Accordingly, permanent effects on CO2 emissions require a more permanent policy stance. In this context, if one were to rely only on testing for stationarity and non-stationarity, one would likely conclude in favour of non-stationarity, and therefore that even transitory policy shocks