Seasonality of suicide in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1979-2003

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate suicide seasonality in the city of São Paulo within an urban area and tropical zone. METHOD: Suicides were evaluated using the chi-square test and analysis of variance (ANOVA) by comparing monthly, quarterly and half-yearly variations, differentiating by gender. Analyses of time series were carried out using the autocorrelation function and periodogram, while the significance level for seasonality was confirmed with the Fisher's test. RESULTS: The suicides of the period between 1979 and 2003 numbered 11,434 cases. Differences were observed in suicides occurring in Spring and Autumn for the total sample (ANOVA: p-value = 0.01), and in the male sample (ANOVA: p-value = 0.02). For the analysis of time series, seasonality was significant only for the period of 7 months in the male sample (p-value = 0.04). DISCUSSION: In this study, no significant seasonal differences were observed in the occurrences of suicides, with the exception of the male sample. The differences observed did not correspond with the pattern described in studies carried out in temperate zones. Some of the climatic particularities of the tropical zone might explain the atypical pattern of seasonality of suicides found in large populations within an urban area and tropical zone.

Comparative study on free-running locomotor activity circadian rhythms in Brazilian subterranean fishes with different degrees of specialization to the hypogean life (Teleostei: Siluriformes; Characiformes)

In this paper we report findings on the presence of circadian rhythms in six species of cave-dwelling fishes from Brazil. Locomotor activity of islolated individuals was automatically recorded for 10 consecutive days under constant darkness. The species tested show varied degrees of specialization to subterranean life and we found varying degrees of the circadian components of locomotor activity as measured by the periodogram algorhythm of Lomb-Scargle. Both the presence and robustness of the circadian components seem to vary according to the degree of specialization to subterranean life, the more specialized, the less circadian rhythmicity was detected.

Evaluating the efficiency of fractional integration parameter estimators

This article deals with the efficiency of fractional integration parameter estimators. This study was based on Monte Carlo experiments involving simulated stochastic processes with integration orders in the range]-1,1[. The evaluated estimation methods were classified into two groups: heuristics and semiparametric/maximum likelihood (ML). The study revealed that the comparative efficiency of the estimators, measured by the lesser mean squared error, depends on the stationary/non-stationary and persistency/anti-persistency conditions of the series. The ML estimator was shown to be superior for stationary persistent processes; the wavelet spectrum-based estimators were better for non-stationary mean reversible and invertible anti-persistent processes; the weighted periodogram-based estimator was shown to be superior for non-invertible anti-persistent processes.

A test of long memory hypothesis based on self-similarity

This paper develops a new test of true versus spurious long memory, based on log-periodogram estimation of the long memory parameter using skip-sampled data. A correction factor is derived to overcome the bias in this estimator due to aliasing. The procedure is designed to be used in the context of a conventional test of significance of the long memory parameter, and composite test procedure described that has the properties of known asymptotic size and consistency. The test is implemented using the bootstrap, with the distribution under the null hypothesis being approximated using a dependent-sample bootstrap technique to approximate short-run dependence following fractional differencing. The properties of the test are investigated in a set of Monte Carlo experiments. The procedure is illustrated by applications to exchange rate volatility and dividend growth series.

Nava enhances ventilatory variability and diaphragmatic activity/tidal volume coupling

INTRODUCTION. Neurally Adjusted Ventilatory Assist (NAVA) is a new ventilatory mode in which ventilator settings are adjusted based on the electrical activity detected in the diaphragm (Eadi). This mode offers significant advantages in mechanical ventilation over standard pressure support (PS) modes, since ventilator input is determined directly from patient ventilatory demand. Therefore, it is expected that tidal volume (Vt) under NAVA would show better correlation with Eadi compared with PS, and exhibit greater variability due to the variability in the Eadi input to the ventilator. OBJECTIVES. To compare tidal volume variability in PS and NAVA ventilation modes, and its correlation with patient ventilatory demand (as characterized by maximum Eadi). METHODS. Acomparative study of patient-ventilator interaction was performed for 22 patients during standard PS with clinician determined ventilator settings; and NAVA, with NAVA gain set to ensure the same peak airway pressure as the total pressure obtained in PS. A 20 min continuous recording was performed in each ventilator mode. Respiratory rate, Vt, and Eadi were recorded. Tidal volume variance and Pearson correlation coefficient between Vt and Eadi were calculated for each patient. A periodogram was plotted for each ventilator mode and each patient, showing spectral power as a function of frequency to assess variability. RESULTS. Median, lower quartile and upper quartile values for Vt variance and Vt/Eadi correlation are shown in Table 1. The NAVA cohort exhibits substantially greater correlation and variance than the PS cohort. Power spectrums for Vt and Eadi are shown in Fig. 1 (PS and NAVA) for a typical patient. The enlarged section highlights how changes in Eadi are highly synchronized with NAVA ventilation, but less so for PS. CONCLUSIONS. There is greater variability in tidal volume and correlation between tidal volume and diaphragmatic electrical activity with NAVA compared to PS. These results are consistent with the improved patient-ventilator synchrony reported in the literature.

Asymmetry of Functional Connectivity in Schizophrenia at Different Spatial Scales

Introduction: The interhemispheric asymmetries that originate from connectivity-related structuring of the cerebral cortex are compromised in schizophrenia (SZ). Recently, we have revealed the whole-head topography of EEG synchronization in SZ (Jalili et al. 2007; Knyazeva et al. 2008). Here we extended the analysis to assess the abnormality in the asymmetry of synchronization, which is further motivated by the evidence that the interhemispheric asymmetries suspected to be abnormal in SZ originate from the connectivity-related structuring of the cortex. Methods: Thirteen right-handed SZ patients and thirteen matched controls, participated in this study and the multichannel (128) EEGs were recorded for 3-5 minutes at rest. Then, Laplacian EEG (LEEG) were calculated using a 2-D spline. The LEEGs were analysis through calculating the power spectral density using Welch's average periodogram method. Furthermore, using a state-space based multivariate synchronization measure, S-estimator, we analyzed the correlate of the functional cortico-cortical connectivity in SZ patients compared to the controls. The values of S-estimator were obtained at three different special scales: first-order neighbors for each sensor location, second-order neighbors, and the whole hemisphere. The synchronization measures based on LEEG of alpha and beta bands were applied and tuned to various spatial scales including local, intraregional, and long-distance levels. To assess the between-group differences, we used a permutation version of Hotelling's T2 test. For correlation analysis, Spearman Rank Correlation was calculated. Results: Compared to the controls, who had rightward asymmetry at a local level (LEEG power), rightward anterior and leftward posterior asymmetries at an intraregional level (first- and second-order S-estimator), and rightward global asymmetry (hemispheric S-estimator), SZ patients showed generally attenuated asymmetry, the effect being strongest for intraregional synchronization. This deviation in asymmetry across the anterior-to-posterior axis is consistent with the cerebral form of the so-called Yakovlevian or anticlockwise cerebral torque. Moreover, the negative occipital and positive frontal asymmetry values suggest higher regional synchronization among the left occipital and the right frontal locations relative to their symmetrical counterparts. Correlation analysis linked the posterior intraregional and hemispheric abnormalities to the negative SZ symptoms, whereas the asymmetry of LEEG power appeared to be weakly coupled to clinical ratings. The posterior intraregional abnormalities of asymmetry were shown to increase with the duration of the disease. The tentative links between these findings and gross anatomical asymmetries, including the cerebral torque and gyrification pattern in normal subjects and SZ patients, are discussed. Conclusions: Overall, our findings reveal the abnormalities in the synchronization asymmetry in SZ patients and heavy involvement of the right hemisphere in these abnormalities. These results indicate that anomalous asymmetry of cortico-cortical connections in schizophrenia is amenable to electrophysiological analysis.

cGMP-dependent protein kinase type I is implicated in the regulation of the timing and quality of sleep and wakefulness.

Many effects of nitric oxide (NO) are mediated by the activation of guanylyl cyclases and subsequent production of the second messenger cyclic guanosine-3',5'-monophosphate (cGMP). cGMP activates cGMP-dependent protein kinases (PRKGs), which can therefore be considered downstream effectors of NO signaling. Since NO is thought to be involved in the regulation of both sleep and circadian rhythms, we analyzed these two processes in mice deficient for cGMP-dependent protein kinase type I (PRKG1) in the brain. Prkg1 mutant mice showed a strikingly altered distribution of sleep and wakefulness over the 24 hours of a day as well as reductions in rapid-eye-movement sleep (REMS) duration and in non-REM sleep (NREMS) consolidation, and their ability to sustain waking episodes was compromised. Furthermore, they displayed a drastic decrease in electroencephalogram (EEG) power in the delta frequency range (1-4 Hz) under baseline conditions, which could be normalized after sleep deprivation. In line with the re-distribution of sleep and wakefulness, the analysis of wheel-running and drinking activity revealed more rest bouts during the activity phase and a higher percentage of daytime activity in mutant animals. No changes were observed in internal period length and phase-shifting properties of the circadian clock while chi-squared periodogram amplitude was significantly reduced, hinting at a less robust oscillator. These results indicate that PRKG1 might be involved in the stabilization and output strength of the circadian oscillator in mice. Moreover, PRKG1 deficiency results in an aberrant pattern, and consequently a reduced quality, of sleep and wakefulness, possibly due to a decreased wake-promoting output of the circadian system impinging upon sleep.

Daily birth numbers in Passo Fundo, South Brazil, 1997-1999: trends and periodicities

Between October 6, 1997 and April 30, 1999, 5011 births (mean: 8.76 per day) were registered in the city of Passo Fundo, South Brazil. The sequence of 572 daily birth numbers was not random (iteration test). Neyman distribution (m = ¥) showed the best fit. Clusters of days with higher birth numbers alternated with days with low numbers of births. Periodogram analysis revealed a significant periodicity of 6.98 days. The cosinor regression, testing 10 a priori supposed period lengths, found significant seasonality peaking in August-September and significantly highest birth numbers on Thursdays. Among the lunar and solar rotation cycles, the tropic lunar cycle and its 4th harmonic were most pronounced, in agreement with results concerning natality in Germany obtained by Svante Arrhenius in the 19th century. These findings confirm Derer-Halberg's concept of multiseptans. In addition to cycling, a significantly increasing linear trend with a daily increase of 0.0045 births was encountered. This documents a growth of the population in agreement with national statistical data.

Climate spectrum estimation in the presence of timescale errors.

We introduce an algorithm (called REDFITmc2) for spectrum estimation in the presence of timescale errors. It is based on the Lomb-Scargle periodogram for unevenly spaced time series, in combination with the Welch's Overlapped Segment Averaging procedure, bootstrap bias correction and persistence estimation. The timescale errors are modelled parametrically and included in the simulations for determining (1) the upper levels of the spectrum of the red-noise AR(1) alternative and (2) the uncertainty of the frequency of a spectral peak. Application of REDFITmc2 to ice core and stalagmite records of palaeoclimate allowed a more realistic evaluation of spectral peaks than when ignoring this source of uncertainty. The results support qualitatively the intuition that stronger effects on the spectrum estimate (decreased detectability and increased frequency uncertainty) occur for higher frequencies. The surplus information brought by algorithm REDFITmc2 is that those effects are quantified. Regarding timescale construction, not only the fixpoints, dating errors and the functional form of the age-depth model play a role. Also the joint distribution of all time points (serial correlation, stratigraphic order) determines spectrum estimation.

Atmospheric electric field measurements in urban environment and the pollutant aerosol weekly dependence

The weekly dependence of pollutant aerosols in the urban environment of Lisbon (Portugal) is inferred from the records of atmospheric electric field at Portela meteorological station (38°47′N,9°08′W). Measurements were made with a Bendorf electrograph. The data set exists from 1955 to 1990, but due to the contaminating effect of the radioactive fallout during 1960 and 1970s, only the period between 1980 and 1990 is considered here. Using a relative difference method a weekly dependence of the atmospheric electric field is found in these records, which shows an increasing trend between 1980 and 1990. This is consistent with a growth of population in the Lisbon metropolitan area and consequently urban activity, mainly traffic. Complementarily, using a Lomb–Scargle periodogram technique the presence of a daily and weekly cycle is also found. Moreover, to follow the evolution of theses cycles, in the period considered, a simple representation in a colour surface plot representation of the annual periodograms is presented. Further, a noise analysis of the periodograms is made, which validates the results found. Two datasets were considered: all days in the period, and fair-weather days only.

Temporal aggregation and bandwidth selection in estimating long memory

This paper reinterprets results of Ohanissian et al (2003) to show the asymptotic equivalence of temporally aggregating series and using less bandwidth in estimating long memory by Geweke and Porter-Hudak’s (1983) estimator, provided that the same number of periodogram ordinates is used in both cases. This equivalence is in the sense that their joint distribution is asymptotically normal with common mean and variance and unity correlation. Furthermore, I prove that the same applies to the estimator of Robinson (1995). Monte Carlo simulations show that this asymptotic equivalence is a good approximation in finite samples. Moreover, a real example with the daily US Dollar/French Franc exchange rate series is provided.

Um estudo da abundância de lítio, rotação, atividade cromosférica e magnetismo das estrelas análogas e gêmeas solares

The study physical process that control the stellar evolution is strength influenced by several stellar parameters, like as rotational velocity, convective envelope mass deepening, and magnetic field intensity. In this study we analyzed the interconnection of some stellar parameters, as Lithium abundance A(Li), chromospheric activity and magnetic field intensity as well as the variation of these parameters as a function of age, rotational velocity, and the convective envelope mass deepening for a selected sample of solar analogs and twins stars. In particular, we analyzed the convective envelope mass deepening and the dispersion of lithium abundance for these stars. We also studied the evolution of rotation in subgiants stars, because its belong to the following evolutionary stage of solar analogs, and twins stars. For this analyze, we compute evolutionary models with the TGEC code to derive the evolutionary stage, as well as the convective envelope mass deepening, and derive more precisely the stellar mass, and age for this 118 stars. Our Investigation shows a considerable dispersion of lithium abundance for the solar analogs stars. We also realize that this dispersion is not by the convective zone deep, in this way we observed which the scattering of A(Li) can not be explained by classical theories of mixing in the convective zone. In conclusion we have that are necessary extra-mixing process to explain this decrease of Lithium abundance in solar analogs and twins stars. We analyzed the subgiant stars because this are the subsequent evolutionary stage after the solar analogs and twins stars. For this analysis, we compute the rotational period for 30 subgiants stars observed by Co- RoT satellite. For this task we apply two different methods: Lomb-Scargle algorithm, and the Plavchan Periodogram. We apply the TGEC code we compute models with internal distribution of angular momentum to confront the predict results with the models, and the observational results. With this analyze, we showed which solid body rotation models are incompatible with the physical interpretation of observational results. As a result of our study we still concluded that the magnetic field, convective envelope mass deepening, and internal redistribution of angular momentum are essential to explain the evolution of low-mass stars, and its observational characteristics. Based on population synthesis simulation, we concluded that the solar neighborhood presents a considerable quantity of solar twins when compared with the discovered set nowadays. Altogether we foresee the existence around 400 solar analogs in the solar neighborhood (distance of 100 pc). We also study the angular momentum of solar analogs and twins, in this study we concluded that added angular momentum from a Jupiter type planet, putted in the Jupiter position, is not enough to explain the angular momentum predicted by Kraft law (Kraft 1970)

Métodos estatísticos recursivos aplicados ao problema de estimação de vazão de gás em plantas de Plunger-lift

This work has as main objective to find mathematical models based on linear parametric estimation techniques applied to the problem of calculating the grow of gas in oil wells. In particular we focus on achieving grow models applied to the case of wells that produce by plunger-lift technique on oil rigs, in which case, there are high peaks in the grow values that hinder their direct measurement by instruments. For this, we have developed estimators based on recursive least squares and make an analysis of statistical measures such as autocorrelation, cross-correlation, variogram and the cumulative periodogram, which are calculated recursively as data are obtained in real time from the plant in operation; the values obtained for these measures tell us how accurate the used model is and how it can be changed to better fit the measured values. The models have been tested in a pilot plant which emulates the process gas production in oil wells

Forced Desynchronization of Activity Rhythms in a Model of Chronic Jet Lag in Mice

We studied locomotor activity rhythms of C57/Bl6 mice under a chronic jet lag (CJL) protocol (ChrA(6/2)), which consisted of 6-hour phase advances of the light-dark schedule (LD) every 2 days. Through periodogram analysis, we found 2 components of the activity rhythm: a short-period component (21.01 +/- 0.04 h) that was entrained by the LD schedule and a long-period component (24.68 +/- 0.26 h). We developed a mathematical model comprising 2 coupled circadian oscillators that was tested experimentally with different CJL schedules. Our simulations suggested that under CJL, the system behaves as if it were under a zeitgeber with a period determined by (24 -[phase shift size/days between shifts]). Desynchronization within the system arises according to whether this effective zeitgeber is inside or outside the range of entrainment of the oscillators. In this sense, ChrA(6/2) is interpreted as a (24 - 6/2 = 21 h) zeitgeber, and simulations predicted the behavior of mice under other CJL schedules with an effective 21-hour zeitgeber. Animals studied under an asymmetric T = 21 h zeitgeber (carried out by a 3-hour shortening of every dark phase) showed 2 activity components as observed under ChrA(6/2): an entrained short-period (21.01 +/- 0.03 h) and a long-period component (23.93 +/- 0.31 h). Internal desynchronization was lost when mice were subjected to 9-hour advances every 3 days, a possibility also contemplated by the simulations. Simulations also predicted that desynchronization should be less prevalent under delaying than under advancing CJL. Indeed, most mice subjected to 6-hour delay shifts every 2 days (an effective 27-hour zeitgeber) displayed a single entrained activity component (26.92 +/- 0.11 h). Our results demonstrate that the disruption provoked by CJL schedules is not dependent on the phase-shift magnitude or the frequency of the shifts separately but on the combination of both, through its ratio and additionally on their absolute values. In this study, we present a novel model of forced desynchronization in mice under a specific CJL schedule; in addition, our model provides theoretical tools for the evaluation of circadian disruption under CJL conditions that are currently used in circadian research.