Asset liability modelling and pension schemes: the application of robust optimization to USS

This paper uses a novel numerical optimization technique - robust optimization - that is well suited to solving the asset-liability management (ALM) problem for pension schemes. It requires the estimation of fewer stochastic parameters, reduces estimation risk and adopts a prudent approach to asset allocation. This study is the first to apply it to a real-world pension scheme, and the first ALM model of a pension scheme to maximise the Sharpe ratio. We disaggregate pension liabilities into three components - active members, deferred members and pensioners, and transform the optimal asset allocation into the scheme’s projected contribution rate. The robust optimization model is extended to include liabilities and used to derive optimal investment policies for the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS), benchmarked against the Sharpe and Tint, Bayes-Stein, and Black-Litterman models as well as the actual USS investment decisions. Over a 144 month out-of-sample period robust optimization is superior to the four benchmarks across 20 performance criteria, and has a remarkably stable asset allocation – essentially fix-mix. These conclusions are supported by six robustness checks.

Population ageing and pension systems in Latin America

Includes bibliography

The market value implications of pension asset allocation

Pension funds have been part of the private sector since the 1850's. Defined Benefit pension plans [DB], where a company promises to make regular contributions to investment accounts held for participating employees in order to pay a promised lifelong annuity, are significant capital markets participants, amounting to 2.3 trillion dollars in 2010 (Federal Reserve Board, 2013). In 2006, Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No.158 (SFAS 158), Employers' Accounting for Defined Benefit Pension and Other Postemployment Plans, shifted information concerning funding status and pension asset/liability composition from disclosure in the footnotes to recognition in the financial statements. I add to the literature by being the first to examine the effect of recent pension reform during the financial crisis of 2008-09. This dissertation is comprised of three related essays. In my first essay, I investigate whether investors assign different pricing multiples to the various classes of pension assets when valuing firms. The pricing multiples on all classes of assets are significantly different from each other, but only investments in bonds and equities were value-relevant during the recent financial crisis. Consistent with investors viewing pension liabilities as liabilities of the firm, the pricing multiples on pension liabilities are significantly larger than those on non-pension liabilities. The only pension costs significantly associated with firm value are actual rate of return and interest expense. In my second essay, I investigate the role of accruals in predicting future cash flows, extending the Barth et al. (2001a) model of the accrual process. Using market value of equity as a proxy for cash flows, the results of this study suggest that aggregate accounting amounts mask how the components of earnings affect investors' ability to predict future cash flows. Disaggregating pension earnings components and accruals results in an increase in predictive power. During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, however, investors placed a greater (and negative) weight on the incremental information contained in the individual components of accruals. The inferences are robust to alternative specifications of accruals. Finally, in my third essay I investigate how investors view under-funded plans. On average, investors: view deficits arising from under-funded plans as belonging to the firm; reward firms with fully or over-funded pension plans; and encourage those funds with unfunded pension plans to become funded. Investors also encourage conservative pension asset allocations to mitigate firm risk, and smaller firms are perceived as being better able to handle the risk associated with underfunded plans. During the financial crisis of 2008-2009 underfunded status had a lower negative association with market value. In all three models, there are significant differences in pre- and post- SFAS 158 periods. These results are robust to various scenarios of the timing of the financial crisis and an alternative measure of funding.

As reformas da previdência no Brasil e o equilíbrio e atuarial dos Regimes Próprios de Previdência Social (RPPS), dos entes federados estaduais da Região Sudeste

O desequilíbrio das contas públicas, notadamente em relação à previdência do servidor público no Brasil, tem levado a buscas constantes de soluções para garantir o custeio do modelo em desenvolvimento. As mudanças estabelecidas nas Reformas da Previdência têm contribuído de forma significativa para diminuir o passivo previdenciário acumulado ao longo dos anos, principalmente nos estados, municípios das capitais e dos demais constituídos antes da promulgação da Carta Magna de 1988. Os estados escolhidos para análise demonstraram desacertos, todavia apresentam resultados promissores para o equilíbrio financeiro e atuarial dos RPPS. A utilização de modelos parecidos aos implementados na América do Sul, para o setor público e privado, apresentam-se inadequados no Brasil para os servidores públicos. Precisamos continuar aprimorando os nossos conhecimentos, buscando novas alternativas que garantam a sustentabilidade e viabilidade do sistema, sem comprometer a capacidade de investimentos dos entes federados

Discretion in accounting for pensions under IAS 19:using the ‘magic telescope’?

We use a panel data set of UK-listed companies over the period 2005–2009 to analyse the actuarial assumptions used to value pension plan liabilities under IAS 19. The valuation process requires companies to make assumptions about financial and demographic variables, notably discount rate, price inflation, salary inflation and mortality/life expectancy of plan members/beneficiaries. We use regression analysis to analyse the relationships between these key assumptions (except mortality, where disclosures are limited) and company-specific factors such as the pension plan funding position and duration of pension liabilities. We find evidence of selective ‘management’ of the three assumptions investigated, although the nature of this appears to differ from the findings of US authors. We conclude that IAS 19 does not prevent the use of managerial discretion, particularly by companies whose pension plan funding positions are weak, thereby reducing the representational faithfulness of the reported pension figures. We also highlight that the degree of discretion used reflects the extent to which IAS 19 defines how the assumptions are to be determined. We therefore suggest that companies should be encouraged to justify more explicitly their choice of assumptions.

Beyond the Toledo agreement : the intergenerational impact of the spanish pension reform

The paper examines the intergenerational impact of the Spanish public pension system after the 1997 Pension Reform Act. Working within a Generational Accounting framework, we find that maintaining the new legal setting could leave future generations with liabilities as high as 176 percent of base year GDP. As the recent reform measures have been insufficient to achieve the sustainability of the current pension system, we also analyse the impact of alternative reform strategies. Within the current pay-as-you-go setting, a further improvement to tax-benefit linkage in line with the original spirit of the Toledo Agreement is shown to yield and intergenerationally more balanced outcome,than an increase in the retirement age or an expansion of public subsidies financed through indirect taxes. Finally, we examine the generational impact of a move toward a partially funded pension system which might restore theintergenerational balance

Beyond the Toledo agreement : the intergenerational impact of the spanish pension reform

The paper examines the intergenerational impact of the Spanish public pension system after the 1997 Pension Reform Act. Working within a Generational Accounting framework, we find that maintaining the new legal setting could leave future generations with liabilities as high as 176 percent of base year GDP. As the recent reform measures have been insufficient to achieve the sustainability of the current pension system, we also analyse the impact of alternative reform strategies. Within the current pay-as-you-go setting, a further improvement to tax-benefit linkage in line with the original spirit of the Toledo Agreement is shown to yield and intergenerationally more balanced outcome,than an increase in the retirement age or an expansion of public subsidies financed through indirect taxes. Finally, we examine the generational impact of a move toward a partially funded pension system which might restore theintergenerational balance

An Information Model for Pension Fund Management

In this paper the issues of Ukrainian new three-level pension system are discussed. First, the paper presents the mathematical model that allows calculating the optimal size of contributions to the non-state pension fund. Next, the non-state pension fund chooses an Asset Management Company. To do so it is proposed to use an approach based on Kohonen networks to classify asset management companies that work in Ukrainian market. Further, when the asset management company is chosen, it receives the pension contributions of the participants of the non-pension fund. Asset Management Company has to invest these contributions profitably. This paper proposes an approach for choosing the most profitable investment project using decision trees. The new pension system has been lawfully ratified only four years ago and is still developing, that is why this paper is very important.

Discrete-time mean variance optimal control of linear systems with Markovian jumps and multiplicative noise

In this article, we consider the stochastic optimal control problem of discrete-time linear systems subject to Markov jumps and multiplicative noise under three kinds of performance criterions related to the final value of the expectation and variance of the output. In the first problem it is desired to minimise the final variance of the output subject to a restriction on its final expectation, in the second one it is desired to maximise the final expectation of the output subject to a restriction on its final variance, and in the third one it is considered a performance criterion composed by a linear combination of the final variance and expectation of the output of the system. We present explicit sufficient conditions for the existence of an optimal control strategy for these problems, generalising previous results in the literature. We conclude this article presenting a numerical example of an asset liabilities management model for pension funds with regime switching.

Contradiction between the average age of retirement at the time of death and the average pension time for men and women in public employment in Portugal

The short article attempts to make some very brief reflections on the effects a lack of public policies positively discriminatory in terms of public employment retirement. In particular, the observation of the absurd contradiction between the average age of retirement at the time of death (for men and women) and the average pension time for men and women in public employment in Portugal.

Individual pension information: Recommendations for the case of Spain based on the experiences of other countries

The aim of this paper is to establish some basic guidelines to help draft the information letter sent to individual contributors should it be decided to use this model in the Spanish public pension system. With this end in mind and basing our work on the experiences of the most advanced countries in the field and the pioneering papers by Jackson (2005), Larsson et al. (2008) and Sunden (2009), we look into the concept of “individual pension information” and identify its most relevant characteristics. We then give a detailed description of two models, those in the United States and Sweden, and in particular look at how they are structured, what aspects could be improved and what their limitations are. Finally we make some recommendations of special interest for designing the model for Spain.

Contradiction between the average age of retirement at the time of death and the average pension time for men and women in public employment in Portugal

The short article attempts to make some very brief reflections on the effects a lack of public policies positively discriminatory in terms of public employment retirement. In particular, the observation of the absurd contradiction between the average age of retirement at the time of death (for men and women) and the average pension time for men and women in public employment in Portugal.

Fair value measurement: Is the debate around level II and level III assets and liabilities relevant

Double Degree. A Work Project presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA- School of Business and Economics and a Masters Degree in Business Engineering from Louvain school of Management