Prediction of Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of links with equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean climate indices

Interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is linked to El Nino-Southern oscillation (ENSO) as well as the Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation (EQUINOO) with the link with the seasonal value of the ENSO index being stronger than that with the EQUINOO index. We show that the variation of a composite index determined through bivariate analysis, explains 54% of ISMR variance, suggesting a strong dependence of the skill of monsoon prediction on the skill of prediction of ENSO and EQUINOO. We explored the possibility of prediction of the Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of prior values of the indices. We find that such predictions are possible for July-September rainfall on the basis of June indices and for August-September rainfall based on the July indices. This will be a useful input for second and later stage forecasts made after the commencement of the monsoon season.

El Nino and the Indian rainfall in June

We have addressed the question of whether the massive deficit of 42% in rainfall over the Indian region in June 2014 can be attributed primarily to the El Nino. We have shown that the variation of convection over the Northern part of the Tropical West Pacific (NWTP: 120-150E, 20-30N) plays a major role in determining the all-India rainfall in June with deficit (excess) in rainfall associated with enhancement (suppression) of convection over NWTP. In June 2014, the outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) anomaly over this region was unfavourable, whereas in June 2015, the OLR anomaly over NWTP was favourable and the all-India rainfall was 16% higher than the long-term average. We find that during El Nino, when the convection over the equatorial central Pacific intensifies, there is a high propensity for intensification of convection over NWTP. Thus, El Nino appears to have an impact on the rainfall over the Indian region via its impact on the convection over the West Pacific, particularly over NWTP. This occurred in June 2014, which suggests that the large deficit in June 2014, could be primarily attributed to the El Nino acting via intensification of convection over NWTP.

Weather and climate of Penisular India modulated by Extrinsic factors- Empirical and Numerical Perspectives

The Doctoral thesis focuses on the factors that influence the weather and climate over Peninsular Indias. The first chapter provides a general introduction about the climatic features over peninsular India, various factors dealt in subsequent chapters, such as solar forcing on climate, SST variability in the northern Indian Ocean and its influence on Indian monsoon, moisture content of the atmosphere and its importance in the climate system, empirical formulation of regression forecast of climate and some aspects of regional climate modeling. Chapter 2 deals with the variability in the vertically integrated moisture (VIM) over Peninsular India on various time scales. The third Chapter discusses the influence of solar activity in the low frequency variability in the rainfall of Peninsular India. The study also investigates the influence of solar activity on the horizontal and vertical components of wind and the difference in the forcing before and after the so-called regime shift in the climate system before and after mid-1970s.In Chapter 4 on Peninsular Indian Rainfall and its association with meteorological and oceanic parameters over adjoining oceanic region, a linear regression model was developed and tested for the seasonal rainfall prediction of Peninsular India.

Stochastic modelling of monthly rainfall

A transformation is suggested which can transform a non-Gaussian monthly hydrological time series into a Gaussian one. The suggested approach is verified with data of ten Indian rainfall time series. Incidentally, it is observed that once the deterministic trends are removed, the transformation leads to an uncorrelated process for monthly rainfall. The procedure for normalization is general enough in that it should be also applicable to river discharges. This is verified to a limited extent by considering data of two Indian river discharges.

Cryptic species and Miocene diversification of Palaearctic naked-toed geckos (Squamata: Gekkonidae) in the Indian dry zone

We sampled Palaearctic naked-toed geckos from across their range in India and used two mitochondrial and two nuclear genes to reconstruct relationships within a global phylogeny. Published sequences of Peninsular Indian Hemidactylus allow us to contrast these two groups in dating analyses - providing insights into the history of the Indian dry zone. Palaearctic naked-toed geckos first moved onto the Indian Plate in the Oligocene, with higher-level diversification probably linked to collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates, and subsequent dispersal into-India and diversification with increasing Miocene aridity. An independent gekkonid radiation with species in the dry zone, Hemidactylus diversified during the same period in Peninsular India. Our results demonstrate that dry zone taxa across India may date back to at least the Miocene, with a potential historical climatic barrier between the Indus and Peninsular Indian Divisions. `Cyrtopodion' aravallense is revealed to be a complex with seven genetically and environmentally divergent lineages that began diversifying in the late Miocene, congruent with increased aridity in north-western India. This discovery of cryptic diversity in the Indian dry zone represents the first terrestrial vertebrate radiation from north-western central India and highlights how little we understand of the regions' biodiversity, emphasizing the need for systematic geographic sampling and multiline evidence to reveal true patterns of diversity. The ancestor of `Cyrtopodion' aravallense came into the nascent Indian dry zone in the Miocene and has since diversified, potentially in the absence of any sympatric scansorial rupicolous geckos. Cyrtopodion scabrum represents a unique case of commensalism and shows phylogeographic structure in its presumed native range. The taxonomic implications of our study include a number of undescribed species, recognition of `Cyrtopodion' as a distinct lineage and the non-monophyly of Altiphylax.

An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with the Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

Cretaceous-Tertiary diversification among select Scolopendrid centipedes of South India

Given that peninsular India was part of the Gondwanan super continent, part of its current biota has Gondwanan origin. To determine the Gondwanan component of the peninsular Indian biota, a large number of species spanning diverse taxonomic groups need to be sampled from multiple, if not all, of the former Gondwanan fragments. Such a large scale phylogenetic approach will be time consuming and resource intensive. Here, we explore the utility of a limited sampling approach, wherein sampling is confined to one of the Gondwanan fragments (peninsular India), in identifying putative Gondwanan elements. To this end, samples of Scolopendrid centipedes from Western Ghats region of peninsular India were subjected to molecular phylogenetic and dating analyses. The resulting phylogenetic tree supported monophyly of the family Scolopendridae which was in turn split into two clades constituting tribes Otostigmini and Scolopendrini-Asanadini. Bayesian divergence date estimates suggested that the earliest diversifications within various genera were between 86 and 73 mya, indicating that these genera might have Gondwanan origin. In particular, at least four genera of Scolopendrid centipedes, Scolopendra, Cormocephalus, Rhysida and Digitipes, might have undergone diversification on the drifting peninsular India during the Late Cretaceous. These putative Gondwanan taxa can be subjected to more extensive sampling to confirm their Gondwanan origin. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance evaluation of chemistry transport models over India

Using continuous and near-real time measurements of the mass concentrations of black carbon (BC) aerosols near the surface, for a period of 1 year (from January to December 2006) from a network of eight observatories spread over different environments of India, a space-time synthesis is generated. The strong seasonal variations observed, with a winter high and summer low, are attributed to the combined effects of changes in synoptic air mass types, modulated strongly by the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics. Spatial distribution shows much higher BC concentration over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) than the peninsular Indian stations. These were examined against the simulations using two chemical transport models, GOCART (Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport) and CHIMERE for the first time over Indian region. Both the model simulations significantly deviated from the measurements at all the stations; more so during the winter and pre-monsoon seasons and over mega cities. However, the CHIMERE model simulations show better agreement compared with the measurements. Notwithstanding this, both the models captured the temporal variations; at seasonal and subseasonal timescales and the natural variabilities (intra-seasonal oscillations) fairly well, especially at the off-equatorial stations. It is hypothesized that an improvement in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) parameterization scheme for tropical environment might lead to better results with GOCART.

Phylogenetic analysis and molecular dating suggest that hemidactylus anamallensis is not a member of the hemidactylus radiation and has an ancient late cretaceous origin

Background of the Work: The phylogenetic position and evolution of Hemidactylus anamallensis (family Gekkonidae) has been much debated in recent times. In the past it has been variously assigned to genus Hoplodactylus (Diplodactylidae) as well as a monotypic genus `Dravidogecko' (Gekkonidae). Since 1995, this species has been assigned to Hemidactylus, but there is much disagreement between authors regarding its phylogenetic position within this genus. In a recent molecular study H. anamallensis was sister to Hemidactylus but appeared distinct from it in both mitochondrial and nuclear markers. However, this study did not include genera closely allied to Hemidactylus, thus a robust evaluation of this hypothesis was not undertaken. Methods: The objective of this study was to investigate the phylogenetic position of H. anamallensis within the gekkonid radiation. To this end, several nuclear and mitochondrial markers were sequenced from H. anamallensis, selected members of the Hemidactylus radiation and genera closely allied to Hemidactylus. These sequences in conjunction with published sequences were subjected to multiple phylogenetic analyses. Furthermore the nuclear dataset was also subjected to molecular dating analysis to ascertain the divergence between H. anamallensis and related genera. Results and Conclusion: Results showed that H. anamallensis lineage was indeed sister to Hemidactylus group but was separated from the rest of the Hemidactylus by a long branch. The divergence estimates supported a scenario wherein H. anamallensis dispersed across a marine barrier to the drifting peninsular Indian plate in the late Cretaceous whereas Hemidactylus arrived on the peninsular India after the Indian plate collided with the Eurasian plate. Based on these molecular evidence and biogeographical scenario we suggest that the genus Dravidogecko should be resurrected.

Phylogeny of the freshwater crabs of the Western Ghats (Brachyura, Gecarcinucidae)

The Western Ghats mountain range in India is a biodiversity hotspot for a variety of organisms including a large number of endemic freshwater crab species and genera of the family Gecarcinucidae. The phylogenetic relationships of these taxa, however, have remained poorly understood. Here, we present a phylogeny that includes 90% of peninsular Indian genera based on mitochondrial 16S rRNA and nuclear histone H3 gene sequences. The subfamily Gecarcinucinae was found to be paraphyletic with members of two other subfamilies, Liotelphusinae and Parathelphusinae, nesting within. We identify a well-supported clade consisting of north Indian species and one clade comprising mostly south Indian species that inhabit the southern sky islands' of the Western Ghats. Relationships of early diverging genera, however, were resolved with low support. This study also includes newly sampled material from an isolated mountain plateau in the northern part of the Western Ghats, representing a new species of Gubernatoriana, which we describe here as Gubernatoriana basalticola sp. n. The new species is immediately distinguished from its congeners and the related genera Ghatiana and Inglethelphusa by its carapace and cheliped morphology, which are unique among Indian freshwater crabs. This study highlights the urgent need for continued faunistic studies to assess the true diversity of gecarcinucid crabs on the Indian subcontinent, to fully understand the basal phylogenetic relationships within the freshwater crab family Gecarcinucidae, and to evaluate the conservation threat status and biogeography of the montane freshwater crabs of the Western Ghats.

Interim report on the ground-water resources of Manatee County, Florida

A large part of western Manatee County is devoted to the growing of winter vegetables and citrus fruits. As in most of peninsular Florida, rainfall in the county during the growing season is not sufficient for crop production and large quantites of artesian water are used for irrigation. The large withdrawals of artesian water for irrigation result in a considerable decline of the artesian head in the western part of the county. This seasonal decline of the artesian head has become larger as the withdrawal of artesian water has increased. The lowering of the fresh-water head in some coastal areas in the State has resulted in an infiltration of sea water into the water-bearing formations. The presence of salty water in the artesian aquifer in parts of the coastal area of Manatee County indicates that sea water may also have entered the waterbearing formations in this area as a result of the decline of artesian pressure during the growing season. The purpose of the investigation is to make a detailed study of the geology and ground-water resources of the county, primarily to determine whether salt-water encroachment has occurred or is likely to occur in the coastal area. (PDF contains 38 pages.)

Simulation of monsoon disturbances in the LMD GCM

The monsoon depressions that form over India during the summer are analyzed using simulations from the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique general circulation model. This type of synoptic system often occurs with a frequency of one to two per month and can produce a strong Indian rainfall. Two kinds of analyses are conducted in this study. The first one is a subjective analysis based on the evolution of the precipitation rate and the pattern of the sea level pressure. The second one is an objective analysis performed using the TRACK program, which identifies and tracks the minima in the sea level pressure anomaly held and computes the statistics for the distribution of systems. The analysis of a 9-yr control run, which simulates strong precipitation rates over the foothills of the Himalayas and over southern India but weak rates over central India, shows that the number of disturbances is coo low and that they almost never occur during August, when break conditions prevail. The generated disturbances more often move north, toward the foothills of the Himalayas. Another analysis is performed to study the effect of the Tibetan Plateau elevation on these disturbances with a 9-yr run carried out with a Tibetan Plateau at 50% of its current height. It is shown that this later integration simulates more frequent monsoon disturbances, which move rather northwestward, in agreement with the current observations. The comparison between the two runs shows that the June-July-August rainfall difference is in large part due to changes in the occurrence of the monsoon disturbances.

Cluster analysis of rainfall stations of the Indian peninsula

Principal component analysis is applied to derive patterns of temporal variation of the rainfall at fifty-three stations in peninsular India. The location of the stations in the coordinate space determined by the amplitudes of the two leading eigenvectors is used to delineate them into eight clusters. The clusters obtained seem to be stable with respect to variations in the grid of stations used. Stations within any cluster occur in geographically contiguous areas.

Variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in daily data from gauge and satellite

It has long been thought that tropical rainfall retrievals from satellites have large errors. Here we show, using a new daily 1 degree gridded rainfall data set based on about 1800 gauges from the India Meteorology Department (IMD), that modern satellite estimates are reasonably close to observed rainfall over the Indian monsoon region. Daily satellite rainfalls from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP 1DD) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) are available since 1998. The high summer monsoon (June-September) rain over the Western Ghats and Himalayan foothills is captured in TMPA data. Away from hilly regions, the seasonal mean and intraseasonal variability of rainfall (averaged over regions of a few hundred kilometers linear dimension) from both satellite products are about 15% of observations. Satellite data generally underestimate both the mean and variability of rain, but the phase of intraseasonal variations is accurate. On synoptic timescales, TMPA gives reasonable depiction of the pattern and intensity of torrential rain from individual monsoon low-pressure systems and depressions. A pronounced biennial oscillation of seasonal total central India rain is seen in all three data sets, with GPCP 1DD being closest to IMD observations. The new satellite data are a promising resource for the study of tropical rainfall variability.