A Dynamic Directional Model for Effective Brain Connectivity using Electrocorticographic (ECoG) Time Series.

We introduce a dynamic directional model (DDM) for studying brain effective connectivity based on intracranial electrocorticographic (ECoG) time series. The DDM consists of two parts: a set of differential equations describing neuronal activity of brain components (state equations), and observation equations linking the underlying neuronal states to observed data. When applied to functional MRI or EEG data, DDMs usually have complex formulations and thus can accommodate only a few regions, due to limitations in spatial resolution and/or temporal resolution of these imaging modalities. In contrast, we formulate our model in the context of ECoG data. The combined high temporal and spatial resolution of ECoG data result in a much simpler DDM, allowing investigation of complex connections between many regions. To identify functionally segregated sub-networks, a form of biologically economical brain networks, we propose the Potts model for the DDM parameters. The neuronal states of brain components are represented by cubic spline bases and the parameters are estimated by minimizing a log-likelihood criterion that combines the state and observation equations. The Potts model is converted to the Potts penalty in the penalized regression approach to achieve sparsity in parameter estimation, for which a fast iterative algorithm is developed. The methods are applied to an auditory ECoG dataset.

PenPC: A two-step approach to estimate the skeletons of high-dimensional directed acyclic graphs.

Estimation of the skeleton of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) is of great importance for understanding the underlying DAG and causal effects can be assessed from the skeleton when the DAG is not identifiable. We propose a novel method named PenPC to estimate the skeleton of a high-dimensional DAG by a two-step approach. We first estimate the nonzero entries of a concentration matrix using penalized regression, and then fix the difference between the concentration matrix and the skeleton by evaluating a set of conditional independence hypotheses. For high-dimensional problems where the number of vertices p is in polynomial or exponential scale of sample size n, we study the asymptotic property of PenPC on two types of graphs: traditional random graphs where all the vertices have the same expected number of neighbors, and scale-free graphs where a few vertices may have a large number of neighbors. As illustrated by extensive simulations and applications on gene expression data of cancer patients, PenPC has higher sensitivity and specificity than the state-of-the-art method, the PC-stable algorithm.

Estimating the intensity of ward admission and its effect on emergency department access block

Emergency department access block is an urgent problem faced by many public hospitals today. When access block occurs, patients in need of acute care cannot access inpatient wards within an optimal time frame. A widely held belief is that access block is the end product of a long causal chain, which involves poor discharge planning, insufficient bed capacity, and inadequate admission intensity to the wards. This paper studies the last link of the causal chain-the effect of admission intensity on access block, using data from a metropolitan hospital in Australia. We applied several modern statistical methods to analyze the data. First, we modeled the admission events as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and estimated time-varying admission intensity with penalized regression splines. Next, we established a functional linear model to investigate the effect of the time-varying admission intensity on emergency department access block. Finally, we used functional principal component analysis to explore the variation in the daily time-varying admission intensities. The analyses suggest that improving admission practice during off-peak hours may have most impact on reducing the number of ED access blocks.

INTEGRATIVE BIOMARKER IDENTIFICATION AND CLASSIFICATION USING HIGH THROUGHPUT ASSAYS

It is well accepted that tumorigenesis is a multi-step procedure involving aberrant functioning of genes regulating cell proliferation, differentiation, apoptosis, genome stability, angiogenesis and motility. To obtain a full understanding of tumorigenesis, it is necessary to collect information on all aspects of cell activity. Recent advances in high throughput technologies allow biologists to generate massive amounts of data, more than might have been imagined decades ago. These advances have made it possible to launch comprehensive projects such as (TCGA) and (ICGC) which systematically characterize the molecular fingerprints of cancer cells using gene expression, methylation, copy number, microRNA and SNP microarrays as well as next generation sequencing assays interrogating somatic mutation, insertion, deletion, translocation and structural rearrangements. Given the massive amount of data, a major challenge is to integrate information from multiple sources and formulate testable hypotheses. This thesis focuses on developing methodologies for integrative analyses of genomic assays profiled on the same set of samples. We have developed several novel methods for integrative biomarker identification and cancer classification. We introduce a regression-based approach to identify biomarkers predictive to therapy response or survival by integrating multiple assays including gene expression, methylation and copy number data through penalized regression. To identify key cancer-specific genes accounting for multiple mechanisms of regulation, we have developed the integIRTy software that provides robust and reliable inferences about gene alteration by automatically adjusting for sample heterogeneity as well as technical artifacts using Item Response Theory. To cope with the increasing need for accurate cancer diagnosis and individualized therapy, we have developed a robust and powerful algorithm called SIBER to systematically identify bimodally expressed genes using next generation RNAseq data. We have shown that prediction models built from these bimodal genes have the same accuracy as models built from all genes. Further, prediction models with dichotomized gene expression measurements based on their bimodal shapes still perform well. The effectiveness of outcome prediction using discretized signals paves the road for more accurate and interpretable cancer classification by integrating signals from multiple sources.

Statistical Hurdle Models for Single Cell Gene Expression: Differential Expression and Graphical Modeling

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Flexible strategies for association analysis with genomic phenotypes

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

PENALIZED FUNCTIONAL REGRESSION

We develop fast fitting methods for generalized functional linear models. An undersmooth of the functional predictor is obtained by projecting on a large number of smooth eigenvectors and the coefficient function is estimated using penalized spline regression. Our method can be applied to many functional data designs including functions measured with and without error, sparsely or densely sampled. The methods also extend to the case of multiple functional predictors or functional predictors with a natural multilevel structure. Our approach can be implemented using standard mixed effects software and is computationally fast. Our methodology is motivated by a diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) study. The aim of this study is to analyze differences between various cerebral white matter tract property measurements of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients and controls. While the statistical developments proposed here were motivated by the DTI study, the methodology is designed and presented in generality and is applicable to many other areas of scientific research. An online appendix provides R implementations of all simulations.

Prediction in Multilevel Logistic Regression

The purpose of this article is to present a new method to predict the response variable of an observation in a new cluster for a multilevel logistic regression. The central idea is based on the empirical best estimator for the random effect. Two estimation methods for multilevel model are compared: penalized quasi-likelihood and Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The performance measures for the prediction of the probability for a new cluster observation of the multilevel logistic model in comparison with the usual logistic model are examined through simulations and an application.

Derivative-free optimization and neural networks for robust regression

Large outliers break down linear and nonlinear regression models. Robust regression methods allow one to filter out the outliers when building a model. By replacing the traditional least squares criterion with the least trimmed squares (LTS) criterion, in which half of data is treated as potential outliers, one can fit accurate regression models to strongly contaminated data. High-breakdown methods have become very well established in linear regression, but have started being applied for non-linear regression only recently. In this work, we examine the problem of fitting artificial neural networks (ANNs) to contaminated data using LTS criterion. We introduce a penalized LTS criterion which prevents unnecessary removal of valid data. Training of ANNs leads to a challenging non-smooth global optimization problem. We compare the efficiency of several derivative-free optimization methods in solving it, and show that our approach identifies the outliers correctly when ANNs are used for nonlinear regression.

The Importance of Scale for Spatial-confounding Bias and Precision of Spatial Regression Estimators

Increasingly, regression models are used when residuals are spatially correlated. Prominent examples include studies in environmental epidemiology to understand the chronic health effects of pollutants. I consider the effects of residual spatial structure on the bias and precision of regression coefficients, developing a simple framework in which to understand the key issues and derive informative analytic results. When the spatial residual is induced by an unmeasured confounder, regression models with spatial random effects and closely-related models such as kriging and penalized splines are biased, even when the residual variance components are known. Analytic and simulation results show how the bias depends on the spatial scales of the covariate and the residual; bias is reduced only when there is variation in the covariate at a scale smaller than the scale of the unmeasured confounding. I also discuss how the scales of the residual and the covariate affect efficiency and uncertainty estimation when the residuals can be considered independent of the covariate. In an application on the association between black carbon particulate matter air pollution and birth weight, controlling for large-scale spatial variation appears to reduce bias from unmeasured confounders, while increasing uncertainty in the estimated pollution effect.

Computational Techniques for Spatial Logistic Regression with Large Datasets

In epidemiological work, outcomes are frequently non-normal, sample sizes may be large, and effects are often small. To relate health outcomes to geographic risk factors, fast and powerful methods for fitting spatial models, particularly for non-normal data, are required. We focus on binary outcomes, with the risk surface a smooth function of space. We compare penalized likelihood models, including the penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL) approach, and Bayesian models based on fit, speed, and ease of implementation. A Bayesian model using a spectral basis representation of the spatial surface provides the best tradeoff of sensitivity and specificity in simulations, detecting real spatial features while limiting overfitting and being more efficient computationally than other Bayesian approaches. One of the contributions of this work is further development of this underused representation. The spectral basis model outperforms the penalized likelihood methods, which are prone to overfitting, but is slower to fit and not as easily implemented. Conclusions based on a real dataset of cancer cases in Taiwan are similar albeit less conclusive with respect to comparing the approaches. The success of the spectral basis with binary data and similar results with count data suggest that it may be generally useful in spatial models and more complicated hierarchical models.

FAST ADAPTIVE PENALIZED SPLINES

This paper proposes a numerically simple routine for locally adaptive smoothing. The locally heterogeneous regression function is modelled as a penalized spline with a smoothly varying smoothing parameter modelled as another penalized spline. This is being formulated as hierarchical mixed model, with spline coe±cients following a normal distribution, which by itself has a smooth structure over the variances. The modelling exercise is in line with Baladandayuthapani, Mallick & Carroll (2005) or Crainiceanu, Ruppert & Carroll (2006). But in contrast to these papers Laplace's method is used for estimation based on the marginal likelihood. This is numerically simple and fast and provides satisfactory results quickly. We also extend the idea to spatial smoothing and smoothing in the presence of non normal response.

PSPLINE: Stata module providing a penalized spline scatterplot smoother based on linear mixed model technology

Pspline uses xtmixed to fit a penalized spline regression and plots the smoothed function. Additional covariates can be specified to adjust the smooth and plot partial residuals.

LOGITCPRPLOT: Stata module to graph component-plus-residual plot for logistic regression

logitcprplot can be used after logistic regression for graphing a component-plus-residual plot (a.k.a. partial residual plot) for a given predictor, including a lowess, local polynomial, restricted cubic spline, fractional polynomial, penalized spline, regression spline, running line, or adaptive variable span running line smooth