Path-dependence, expectativas e regulação econômica : elementos de análise a partir de uma perspectiva pós-keynesiana

O artigo busca fazer uma relação entre a ocorrência de path-dependence, a natureza expectacional do investimento e as flutuações econômicas, a partir de um referencial pós-keynesiano de análise. Em um ambiente não-ergódico, a fim de que o sistema tenha uma relativa estabilidade no tempo, a regulação econômica requer muito mais do que simples ajustamentos incrementais. Tornam-se necessárias, e possíveis, modificações qualitativas do sistema econômico. Tais modificações são analisadas a partir do conceito de bifurcação.

Turkey's accession to the EU: interests, ideas and path dependence

The paper is divided into four sections. The first offers a critical assessment of explanations of both rationalist and constructivist approaches currently dominating European studies and assesses the notion of path dependence. The second and third sections analyse the role of both material interests and polity ideas in EU enlargement to Turkey, and conclude that explanations exclusively based on either strategic calculations or values and identities have significant shortcomings. The fourth section examines the institutional path of Turkey's candidacy to show how the course of action begun at Helsinki restricted the range of possible and legitimate options three years later in Copenhagen.

Lock-in, path dependence, and the Internationalization of QWERTY

This paper looks at the emergence of what is described here as the QWERTY family of standards (QWERTY and its international adaptations QZERTY, AZERTY, and QWERTZ). QWERTY has been described as an inferior solution and an accident of history. However, the analysis here finds that each member of the family represented highly efficient adaptations to specific user needs and technical challenges encountered in their own environments. These findings may be seen to have wider implications given QWERTY’s role as paradigm case in the literature on increasing returns and path dependence, and these are pursued in the paper

Harrod sob análise: path-dependence, tempo histórico e mudança estrutural endógena

Harrod under analysis: path-dependence, historic time and endogenous structural change. The article aims to demonstrate how the Harrod's approach (1937, 1938, 1948) can offer theoretical elements to form a complex, historicists and non-determinist view of the economic system. The relaxation of the constant warranty rate hypothesis make possible the system suffers endogenous qualitative change. It results in the notion of path-dependence and historic time. By the endogenization of the expectations and the existence of turn-points mechanisms, this approach allows a synthesis between non-convergency and economic regulation.

Path dependence and Britain’s "coal wagon problem"

This article explores the nature and impact of path dependence in British rail coal haulage before 1939. It examines the factors which locked Britain's railways into a system of small coal wagons with highly fragmented ownership, the cost penalties of this system, and the reasons that attempts at modernization were unsuccessful. The analysis highlights the importance of decentralized ownership of a highly durable installed base of complementary infrastructure. Technical and institutional interrelatedness blocked incremental modernization, while the political requirement to compensate private wagon owners for the loss of their wagon stock made wholesale rationalization financially unattractive.

Economia evolucionária e path dependence do investimento externo japonês: um estudo do Leste Asiático no período pré Segunda Guerra Mundial

A abertura da economia e o reinício das relações econômicas japonesas com o exterior e o processo de industrialização da economia japonesa na Era Meiji levaram o Japão a investir no exterior. Os investimentos japoneses no exterior cresceram preponderantemente no Leste Asiático, concentrando-se nessa área até o término da Segunda Guerra Mundial. A tese mostra que existem restrições de caráter institucional e histórico, que impõem limitações às empresas quanto ao leque de opções para investirem no exterior. Uma vez que as empresas japonesas fizeram a opção, impostas por aquelas restrições, de investir no Leste Asiático, feedbacks positivos, propiciados pelos eventos históricos e institucionais, geraram auto-reforços, levando a um resultado de inflexibilidade - lock-in - para sair dessa região. A tese comprova que explicar os investimentos externos japoneses pelo modelo de economia evolucionária, através do processo de path dependence, que incorpora o caráter institucional e histórico, é mais plausível do que as interpretações convencionais.

Path dependence of the quark nonlocal condensate within the instanton model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Path Dependence in Decision-Making Processes: Exploring the Impact of Complexity under Increasing Returns

The development of path-dependent processes basically refers to positive feedback in terms of increasing returns as the main driving forces of such processes. Furthermore, path dependence can be affected by context factors, such as different degrees of complexity. Up to now, it has been unclear whether and how different settings of complexity impact path-dependent processes and the probability of lock-in. In this paper we investigate the relationship between environmental complexity and path dependence by means of an experimental study. By focusing on the mode of information load and decision quality in chronological sequences, the study explores the impact of complexity on decision-making processes. The results contribute to both the development of path-dependence theory and a better understanding of decision-making behavior under conditions of positive feedback. Since previous path research has mostly applied qualitative case-study research and (to a minor part) simulations, this paper makes a further contribution by establishing an experimental approach for research on path dependence.

Path Constitution Analysis: A Methodology for Understanding Path Dependence and Path Creation

Although an increasing number of studies of technological, institutional and organizational change refer to the concepts of path dependence and path creation, few attempts have been made to consider these concepts explicitly in their methodological accounts. This paper addresses this gap and contributes to the literature by developing a comprehensive methodology that originates from the concepts of path dependence and path creation – path constitution analysis (PCA) – and allows for the integration of multi-actor constellations on multiple levels of analysis within a process perspective. Based upon a longitudinal case study in the field of semiconductors, we illustrate PCA ‘in action’ as a template for other researchers and critically examine its adequacy. We conclude with implications for further path-oriented inquiries.

Transition and foreign aid policies in the Visegrád countries:a path dependant approach

The paper argues that the current emerging international development policies of the Visegrád (V4) countries are heavily influenced by the certain aspects of the Communist past and the transition process. Due to these influences, the V4 countries have difficulties in adapting the foreign aid practices of Western donors and this leads to the emergence of a unique Central and Eastern European development cooperation model. As an analytical background, the paper builds on the path dependency theory of transition. A certain degree of path dependence is clearly visible in V4 foreign aid policies, and the paper analyses some aspects of this phenomenon: how these new emerging foreign aid donors select their partner countries, how much they spend on aid, how they formulate their aid delivery policies and institutions and what role the non-state actors play. The main conclusions of the paper are that the legacies of the Communist past have a clear influence and the V4 countries still have a long way to go in adapting their aid policies to international requirements.

Transition and Foreign Aid Policies in the Visegrád Countries: A Path Dependant Approach

The paper argues that the current emerging international development policies of the Visegrád (V4) countries are heavily influenced by the certain aspects of the communist past and the transition process. Due to these influences, the V4 countries have difficulties in adapting the foreign aid practices of Western donors and this leads to the emergence of a unique Central and Eastern European development cooperation model. As an analytical background, the paper builds on the path dependency theory of transition. A certain degree of path dependence is clearly visible in V4 foreign aid policies, and the paper analyzes some aspects of this phenomenon: how these new emerging foreign aid donors select their partner countries, how much they spend on aid, how they formulate their aid delivery policies and institutions and what role the non state actors play. The main conclusions of the paper are that the legacies of the communist past have a clear influence and the V4 countries still have a long way to go in adapting their aid policies to international requirements.

INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH POLICY-MAKING A Case Study of the Brazilian Central Bank

A number of contemporary studies rightly emphasize the notion that policy outcomes result from institutional determinants. But as a growing literature on institutional development notes, these institutions are themselves impermanent. Sometimes, in crisis moments, institutions are replaced wholesale. More frequently, institutions evolve gradually over time. Using the Brazilian Central Bank as a case study, this article illustrates that the policy-making process itself can be a central driver of gradual institutional development, with institutions evolving through the accumulation of policy choices made over many years and under different policymakers in response to contemporaneous events and unforeseeable economic and political challenges.

Socioeconomic causes of loss of animal genetic diversity: Analysis and assessment

The number of breeds of domesticated animals, especially livestock, have declined rapidly. The proximate causes and processes involved in loss of breeds are outlined. The path-dependent effect and Swanson's dominance-effect are discussed in relation to breed selection. While these help to explain genetic erosion, they need to be supplemented to provide a further explanation of biodiversity loss. It is shown that the extension of markets and economic globalisation have contributed significantly to genetic loss of breeds. In addition, the decoupling of animal husbandry from surrounding natural environmental conditions is further eroding the stock of genetic resources, particularly industrialised intensive animal husbandry. Recent trends in animal husbandry raise very serious sustainability issues, apart from animal welfare concerns.