Anthropogenic landscape change promotes asymmetric dispersal and limits regional patch occupancy in a spatially structured bird population

1. Local extinctions in habitat patches and asymmetric dispersal between patches are key processes structuring animal populations in heterogeneous environments. Effective landscape conservation requires an understanding of how habitat loss and fragmentation influence demographic processes within populations and movement between populations. 2. We used patch occupancy surveys and molecular data for a rainforest bird, the logrunner (Orthonyx temminckii), to determine (i) the effects of landscape change and patch structure on local extinction; (ii) the asymmetry of emigration and immigration rates; (iii) the relative influence of local and between-population landscapes on asymmetric emigration and immigration; and (iv) the relative contributions of habitat loss and habitat fragmentation to asymmetric emigration and immigration. 3. Whether or not a patch was occupied by logrunners was primarily determined by the isolation of that patch. After controlling for patch isolation, patch occupancy declined in landscapes experiencing high levels of rainforest loss over the last 100 years. Habitat loss and fragmentation over the last century was more important than the current pattern of patch isolation alone, which suggested that immigration from neighbouring patches was unable to prevent local extinction in highly modified landscapes. 4. We discovered that dispersal between logrunner populations is highly asymmetric. Emigration rates were 39% lower when local landscapes were fragmented, but emigration was not limited by the structure of the between-population landscapes. In contrast, immigration was 37% greater when local landscapes were fragmented and was lower when the between-population landscapes were fragmented. Rainforest fragmentation influenced asymmetric dispersal to a greater extent than did rainforest loss, and a 60% reduction in mean patch area was capable of switching a population from being a net exporter to a net importer of dispersing logrunners. 5. The synergistic effects of landscape change on species occurrence and asymmetric dispersal have important implications for conservation. Conservation measures that maintain large patch sizes in the landscape may promote asymmetric dispersal from intact to fragmented landscapes and allow rainforest bird populations to persist in fragmented and degraded landscapes. These sink populations could form the kernel of source populations given sufficient habitat restoration. However, the success of this rescue effect will depend on the quality of the between-population landscapes.

Factors affecting patch occupancy by the white-browed treecreeper Climacteris Affinis in an agricultural landscape in north-west Victoria, Australia

The survival of habitat-dependent fauna within agricultural mosaics depends on their ability to occupy remnant habitat patches and move through the modified landscape. In north-west Victoria, Australia, less than 10% of the pre-European extent of Selah Casuarina pauper woodland remains intact due to agricultural development. The White-browed Treecreeper Climacteris affinis, is a small, insectivorous passerine that, in this region, preferentially inhabits Selah woodland. To assess the ability of C. affinis to persist in an agricultural landscape, 30 woodland sites in the Millewa landscape (34°30'S, 141°30'E) were surveyed, and patterns of patch occupancy used to examine the influence of spatial characteristics, landscape context and grazing by stock on the suitability of remnants as C. affinis habitat. Sites occupied by C. affinis were larger and less likely to be grazed by stock than vacant patches. The area-dependency of patch occupancy represents a step-threshold: C. affinis were not detected in remnants with less than 18.5 ha of Selah woodland but above this threshold, density was not correlated with patch area. Measures of patch isolation, the existence of linking linear "corridors" and tree density were not reliable indicators of patch occupancy. The presence of the species in remnants entirely surrounded by agricultural land suggests they are capable of crossing up to 450 m of cultivated land to prospect for habitat. The extensive network of linear vegetation and the numerous small remnants and scattered trees appear to facilitate movements of C. affinis in this landscape. Increasing the size of existing remnants, creating new habitat to expand the area of occupancy and maintaining landscape connectivity are priorities for the long-term management of this threatened species.

Factors affecting southern water vole (Arvicola sapidus) detection and occupancy probabilities in Mediterranean farmland

Failure to detect a species at sites where it is present (i.e. imperfect detection) is known to occur frequently, but this is often disregarded in monitoring programs and metapopulation studies. Here we modelled for the first time the probability of patch occupancy by a threatened small mammal, the southern water vole (Arvicola sapidus, while accounting for the probability of detection given occupancy. Based on replicated presence sign surveys conducted in autumn (November–December 2013) and winter (February–March 2014) in a farmland landscape, we used occupancy detection modelling to test the effects of vegetation, sampling effort, observer experience, and rainfall on detection probability. We then assessed whether occupancy was related to patch size, isolation, vegetation, or presence of water, after correcting for imperfect detection. The mean detection probabilities of water vole signs in autumn (0.71) and winter (0.81) indicated that false absences may be generated in about 20–30% of occupied patches surveyed by a single observer on a single occasion. There was no statistical support for the effects of covariates on detectability. After controlling for imperfect detection, the mean probabilities of occupancy in autumn (0.31) and winter (0.29) were positively related to patch size and presence of water, and negatively so, albeit weakly, to patch isolation. Overall, our study underlined the importance of accounting for imperfect detection in sign surveys of small mammals such as water voles, pointing out the need to use occupancy detection modelling together with replicate surveys for accurately estimating occupancy and the factors affecting it.

Using complex network metrics to predict the persistence of metapopulations with asymmetric connectivity patterns

Almost all metapopulation modelling assumes that connectivity between patches is only a function of distance, and is therefore symmetric. However, connectivity will not depend only on the distance between the patches, as some paths are easy to traverse, while others are difficult. When colonising organisms interact with the heterogeneous landscape between patches, connectivity patterns will invariably be asymmetric. There have been few attempts to theoretically assess the effects of asymmetric connectivity patterns on the dynamics of metapopulations. In this paper, we use the framework of complex networks to investigate whether metapopulation dynamics can be determined by directly analysing the asymmetric connectivity patterns that link the patches. Our analyses focus on “patch occupancy” metapopulation models, which only consider whether a patch is occupied or not. We propose three easily calculated network metrics: the “asymmetry” and “average path strength” of the connectivity pattern, and the “centrality” of each patch. Together, these metrics can be used to predict the length of time a metapopulation is expected to persist, and the relative contribution of each patch to a metapopulation’s viability. Our results clearly demonstrate the negative effect that asymmetry has on metapopulation persistence. Complex network analyses represent a useful new tool for understanding the dynamics of species existing in fragmented landscapes, particularly those existing in large metapopulations.

Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location: Cloud forests in Mexico. Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five. Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas. Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecological dynamics of extinct species in empty habitat networks. 2. The role of host plant dynamics

This paper explores the relative effects of host plant dynamics and butterfly-related parameters on butterfly persistence. It considers an empty habitat network where a rare butterfly (Cupido minimus) became extinct in 1939 in part of its historical range in north Wales, UK. Surviving populations of the butterfly in southern Britain were visited to assess use of its host plant (Anthyllis vulneraria) in order to calibrate habitat suitability and carrying capacity in the empty network in north Wales. These data were used to deduce that only a portion ( similar to 19%) of the host plant network from north Wales was likely to be highly suitable for oviposition. Nonetheless, roughly 65,460 eggs (3273 adult equivalents) could be expected to be laid in north Wales, were the empty network to be populated at the same levels as observed on comparable plants in surviving populations elsewhere. Simulated metapopulations of C. minimus in the empty network revealed that time to extinction and patch occupancy were significantly influenced by carrying capacity, butterfly mean dispersal distance and environmental stochasticity, although for most reasonable parameter values, the model system persisted. Simulation outputs differed greatly when host plant dynamics was incorporated into the modelled butterfly dynamics. Cupido minimus usually went extinct when host plant were at low densities. In these simulations host plant dynamics appeared to be the most important determinant of the butterfly's regional extirpation. Modelling the outcome of a reintroduction programme to C. minimus variation at high quality locations, revealed that 65% of systems survived at least 100 years. Given the current amount of resources of the north Wales landscape, the persistence of C. minimus under a realistic reintroduction programme has a good chance of being successful, if carried out in conjunction with a host plant management programme.

Evaluating the Small Population Paradigm for Rare Large-Bodied Woodpeckers, with Implications for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker

Six large-bodied, ≥ 120 g, woodpecker species are listed as near-threatened to critically endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The small population paradigm assumes that these populations are likely to become extinct without an increase in numbers, but the combined influences of initial population size and demographic rates, i.e., annual adult survival and fecundity, may drive population persistence for these species. We applied a stochastic, stage-based single-population model to available demographic rates for Dryocopus and Campephilus woodpeckers. In particular, we determined the change in predicted extinction rate, i.e., proportion of simulated populations that went extinct within 100 yr, to concomitant changes in six input parameters. To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the combined importance of initial population size and demographic rates for the persistence of large-bodied woodpeckers. Under a worse-case scenario, the median time to extinction was 7 yr (range: 1–32). Across the combinations of other input values, increasing initial population size by one female induced, on average, 0.4%–3.2% (range: 0%–28%) reduction in extinction rate. Increasing initial population size from 5–30 resulted in extinction rates < 0.05 under limited conditions: (1) all input values were intermediate, or (2) Allee effect present and annual adult survival ≥ 0.8. Based on our model, these species can persist as rare, as few as five females, and thus difficult-to-detect, populations provided they maintain ≥ 1.1 recruited females annually per adult female and an annual adult survival rate ≥ 0.8. Athough a demographic-based population viability analysis (PVA) is useful to predict how extinction rate changes across scenarios for life-history attributes, the next step for modeling these populations should incorporate more easily acquired data on changes in patch occupancy to make predictions about patch colonization and extinction rates.

The social evolution of dispersal with public goods cooperation

Selection can favour the evolution of individually costly dispersal if this alleviates competition between relatives. However, conditions that favour altruistic dispersal also mediate selection for other social behaviours, such as public goods cooperation, which in turn is likely to mediate dispersal evolution. Here, we investigate – both experimentally (using bacteria) and theoretically – how social habitat heterogeneity (i.e. the distribution of public goods cooperators and cheats) affects the evolution of dispersal. In addition to recovering the well-known theoretical result that the optimal level of dispersal increases with genetic relatedness of patch mates, we find both mathematically and experimentally that dispersal is always favoured when average patch occupancy is low, but when average patch occupancy is high, the presence of public goods cheats greatly alters selection for dispersal. Specifically, when public goods cheats are localized to the home patch, higher dispersal rates are favoured, but when cheats are present throughout available patches, lower dispersal rates are favoured. These results highlight the importance of other social traits in driving dispersal evolution.

Interactions between climate change and land use change on biodiversity: attribution problems, risks, and opportunities

Global change drivers are known to interact in their effects on biodiversity, but much research to date ignores this complexity. As a consequence, there are problems in the attribution of biodiversity change to different drivers and, therefore, our ability to manage habitats and landscapes appropriately. Few studies explicitly acknowledge and account for interactive (i.e., nonadditive) effects of land use and climate change on biodiversity. One reason is that the mechanisms by which drivers interact are poorly understood. We evaluate such mechanisms, including interactions between demographic parameters, evolutionary trade-offs and synergies and threshold effects of population size and patch occupancy on population persistence. Other reasons for the lack of appropriate research are limited data availability and analytical issues in addressing interaction effects. We highlight the influence that attribution errors can have on biodiversity projections and discuss experimental designs and analytical tools suited to this challenge. Finally, we summarize the risks and opportunities provided by the existence of interaction effects. Risks include ineffective conservation management; but opportunities also arise, whereby the negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be reduced through appropriate land management as an adaptation measure. We hope that increasing the understanding of key mechanisms underlying interaction effects and discussing appropriate experimental and analytical designs for attribution will help researchers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners to better minimize risks and exploit opportunities provided by land use-climate change interactions.

Occurrence of small mammals in a fragmented landscape: the role of vegetation heterogeneity

Most studies of habitat use by small mammals rely on data from trapping grids. Such studies pertain to habitat use by individuals, which may not reflect population-level requirements. To meet the challenge of landscape change, it is important to understand habitat use by populations across large geographic areas. We surveyed small mammals in 48 forest remnants across a 300 km2 study area, to investigate the influence of vegetation heterogeneity on regional distributions. Information-theoretic techniques were used to evaluate models of vegetation associations. Richness of native mammals was influenced by vegetation condition: disturbed sites supported fewer species. Models for individual species showed the agile antechinus, Antechinus agilis, to prefer structurally diverse forest vegetation, the long-nosed potoroo, Potorous tridactylus, to favour mesic shrub communities, the bush rat, Rattus fuscipes, to prefer complex low cover regardless of composition, the swamp rat, Rattus lutreolus, to favour reduced canopy cover, and the house mouse, Mus domesticus, to prefer disturbed vegetation. To satisfy the needs of all native species, a mosaic of natural vegetation is required. Degradation and simplification of forest vegetation have detrimental consequences. These results highlight the need to consider habitat quality, together with more traditional biogeographic variables, when investigating factors influencing patch occupancy by native fauna in modified landscapes.

Conservation ecology and breeding biology of the white-browed treecreeper, Climacteris affinis

The White-browed Treecreeper Climacteris affinis is one of many woodland-dependent birds that are at risk from the encroachment of human-dominated land-uses into natural landscapes. The White-browed Treecreeper inhabits semi-arid woodlands in north-west Victoria, Australia, a vegetation community that has undergone extreme modification in the last century due to the expansion of agriculture in the region. Extant woodlands represent only 10% of the original woodland cover in the region, and are highly fragmented and disturbed in many districts. Thus, the survival of the White-browed Treecreeper may depend on active management. However, current knowledge of the ecology and biology of this species is virtually non-existent, and inadequate for informed and effective conservation actions. The aim of this thesis is to redress this situation and provide the ecological basis for sound conservation management of the species. The thesis consists of two parts: an investigation of habitat use at three spatial scales and a study of the social organization, nesting requirements, breeding behaviour and reproductive success of a population of White-browed Treecreepers. Fifty-six patches of remnant woodland in north-west Victoria were surveyed to determine the factors affecting the occurrence of the White-browed Treecreeper at the regional scale. It was detected in 16 patches, and was largely confined to two core districts - Yarrara and, Wyperfeld (Pine Plains). The floristic composition of the dominant tree species was an important determinant of patch occupancy, with the results providing quantitative support for the previously suspected affinity for Belah Casuarina pauper and Slender Cypress-pine Callitris gracilis — Buloke Allocasuarina luehmannii woodlands. However, the absence of the White-browed Treecreeper from several districts was due to factors other than a lack of appropriate habitat. Demographic isolation - the distance from the focal patch to the nearest population of the White-browed Treecreeper - was the most important variable in explaining variation in patch occupancy. Patches isolated from other treecreeper populations by more than 8.3 km in landscapes of non-preferred native vegetation, and 3 km in agricultural landscapes, were unlikely to support the White-browed Treecreeper. The impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on the capacity of individuals to move through the landscape (i.e. functional connectivity) is considered in relation to disruption to dispersal and migration, and the potential collapse of local metapopulations. Habitat use was then examined in a network of patches and linear strips of Belah woodland embedded in a predominantly cultivated landscape. A minimum area of 18.5 ha of Belah woodland was identified as the most important criterion for patch occupancy at the local scale. This landscape appeared to be permeable to movement by the White-browed Treecreeper, facilitated by the extensive network of linear habitat, and clusters of small to medium fragments. The third scale of habitat use investigated the frequency of use of 1-ha plots within tracts of occupied woodland. It is important to discriminate between habitat traits that operate at the population level, and those that act as proximate cues for habitat selection by individuals. Woodlands that have high tree density, extensive cover of low-stature shrubs, abundant lichen, a complex vertical structure, and relatively low cover of grass and herbs are likely to support larger populations of the White-browed Treecreeper. However, individuals appeared to be using tree dominance (positive) and tall shrub cover (negative) as proximate environmental stimuli for habitat selectivity. A relatively high cover of ground lichen, which probably reflects a ground layer with low disturbance and high structural complexity, was also a reliable indicator of habitat use. Predictive models were developed which could be used to plan vegetation management to enhance habitat for the White-browed Treecreeper. The results of the regional, landscape and patch-scale investigations emphasise that factors operating at multiple spatial scales influence the suitability of remnant vegetation as habitat for the White-browed Treecreeper. The White-browed Treecreeper is typical of many small Australian passerines in that it has high annual survival, small clutches, a long breeding season, multiple broods and relatively low reproductive rates. Reproductive effort is adjusted through the number of clutches laid rather than clutch size. They occupy relatively large, all-purpose territories throughout the year. However, unlike many group territorial birds, territory size was not related to the number of occupants. The White-browed Treecreeper nests in tree hollows. They select hollows with a southerly orientation where possible, and prefer hollows that were higher from the ground. At Yarrara, there was considerable spatial variation in hollow abundance that, in concert with territorial constraints, restricted the actual availability of hollows to less than the absolute abundance of hollows. Thus, the availability of suitable hollows may limit reproductive productivity in some territories, although the magnitude of this constraint on overall population growth is predicted to be small. However, lack of recruitment of hollow-bearing trees would increase the potential for hollow availability to limit population growth. This prospect is particularly relevant in grazed remnants and those outside the reserve system. Facultative cooperative breeding was confirmed, with groups formed through male philopatry. Consequently, natal dispersal is female-biased, although there was no skew in the sex ratio of the fledglings or the general adult population. Helpers were observed performing all activities associated with parenting except copulation and brooding. Cooperatively breeding groups enjoyed higher fledgling productivity than simple pairs, after statistically accounting for territory and parental quality. However, the difference reflected increased productivity in the 1999-breeding season only, when climatic conditions were more favourable than in 1998. Breeding commenced earlier in 1999, and all breeding units were more likely to attempt a second brood. However, only breeders with helpers were successful in fledging second brood young, and it was this difference that accounted for the overall discrepancy in productivity. The key mechanism for increased success in cooperative groups was a reduction hi the interval between first and second broods, facilitated by compensatory reductions in the level of care to the first brood. Thus, females with helpers probably achieved significant energetic savings during this period, which enabled them to re-lay sooner. Furthermore, they were able to recommence nesting when the fledglings from the first brood were younger because there were more adults to feed the dependent juveniles. The current utility, and possible evolutionary pathways, of cooperative breeding is examined from the perspective of both breeders and helpers. Breeders benefit through enhanced fledgling productivity in good breeding conditions and a reduction in the burden of parental care, which may impart significant energetic savings. Further, breeders may facilitate philopatry as a means for ensuring a minimum level of reproductive success. Helpers benefit through an increase in their inclusive fitness in the absence of opportunities for independent breeding (i.e. ecological constraints) and access to breeding vacancies in the natal or adjacent territories (i.e. benefits of philopatry). However, the majority of breeding unit-years comprised unassisted breeders, which suggests that pairs are selectively favoured under certain environmental or demographic conditions.

The response of ground and bark foraging insectivorous birds across an urban–forest gradient

This paper assesses the response of four common species of forest dependant insectivorous birds to an urban–forest gradient. The presence or absence was recorded for each species in landscapes that varied in landscape and site level attributes. Landscapes were classified into three categories based on their level of urbanisation. Broad comparisons across the landscapes were used to determine species specific response to increasing levels of urbanisation. Site level attributes were modelled to predict the patch occupancy for each species in each of the landscape types. Two broad trends were identified: the superb fairy wren (Malurus cyaneus) and white-browed scrubwren (Sericornis frontalis) displayed a tolerance to urbanisation and the eastern yellowrobin (Eosaltrica australis) and white throated treecreeper (Cormobates leucophaeus) demonstrated a threshold response to urbanisation. The density of roads (−ve) and the extent of tree cover (+ve) in a landscape were highly correlated with the occurrence of urban sensitive species while at the site level the density of roads and density of rivers were the strongest contributors to their presence. The marked differences in the isolation and connectivity of patches where the threshold for urban sensitive species ceases are the likely contributors to their decline and sensitivity to suburban habitats. Conservation and management of urban sensitive species is largely dependant on the way urban development is managed. Of critical importance is careful planning in urban-fringe environments.

Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location Cloud forests in Mexico.
Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five.
Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas.
Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses.

Testing the focal species approach to making conservation decisions for species persistence

Aim: Most risk assessments and decisions in conservation are based on surrogate approaches, where a group of species or environmental indicators are selected as proxies for other aspects of biodiversity. In the focal species approach, a suite of species is selected based on life history characteristics, such as dispersal limitation and area requirements. Testing the validity of the focal species concept has proved difficult, due to a lack of theory justifying the underlying framework, explicit objectives and measures of success. We sought to understand the conditions under which the focal species concept has merit for conservation decisions. Location: Our model system comprised 10 vertebrate species in 39 patches of native forest embedded in pine plantation in New South Wales, Australia. Methods: We selected three focal species based on ecological traits. We used a multiple-species reserve selection method that minimizes the expected loss of species, by estimating the risk of extinction with a metapopulation model. We found optimal reserve solutions for multiple species, including all 10 species, the three focal species, for all possible combinations of three species, and for each species individually. Results: Our case study suggests that the focal species approach can work: the reserve system that minimized the expected loss of the focal species also minimized the expected species loss in the larger set of 10 species. How well the solution would perform for other species and given landscape dynamics remains unknown. Main conclusions: The focal species approach may have merit as a conservation short cut if placed within a quantitative decision-making framework, where the aspects of biodiversity for which the focal species act as proxies are explicitly defined, and success is determined by whether the use of the proxy results in the same decision. Our methods provide a framework for testing other surrogate approaches used in conservation decision-making and risk assessment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effects of habitat fragmentation due to forestry plantation establishment on the demography and genetic variation of a marsupial carnivore, Antechinus agilis

We conducted a demographic and genetic study to investigate the effects of fragmentation due to the establishment of an exotic softwood plantation on populations of a small marsupial carnivore, the agile antechinus (Antechinus agilis), and the factors influencing the persistence of those populations in the fragmented habitat. The first aspect of the study was a descriptive analysis of patch occupancy and population size, in which we found a patch occupancy rate of 70% among 23 sites in the fragmented habitat compared to 100% among 48 sites with the same habitat characteristics in unfragmented habitat. Mark-recapture analyses yielded most-likely population size estimates of between 3 and 85 among the 16 occupied patches in the fragmented habitat. Hierarchical partitioning and model selection were used to identify geographic and habitat-related characteristics that influence patch occupancy and population size. Patch occupancy was primarily influenced by geographic isolation and habitat quality (vegetation basal area). The variance in population size among occupied sites was influenced primarily by forest type (dominant Eucalyptus species) and, to a lesser extent, by patch area and topographic context (gully sites had larger populations). A comparison of the sex ratios between the samples from the two habitat contexts revealed a significant deficiency of males in the fragmented habitat. We hypothesise that this is due to male-biased dispersal in an environment with increased dispersal-associated mortality. The population size and sex ratio data were incorporated into a simulation study to estimate the proportion of genetic diversity that would have been lost over the known timescale since fragmentation if the patch populations had been totally isolated. The observed difference in genetic diversity (gene diversity and allelic richness at microsatellite and mitochondrial markers) between 16 fragmented and 12 unfragmented sites was extremely low and inconsistent with the isolation of the patch populations. Our results show that although the remnant habitat patches comprise approximately 2% of the study area, they can support non-isolated populations. However, the distribution of agile antechinus populations in the fragmented system is dependent on habitat quality and patch connectivity. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.