Análise biogeográfica da dieta de um predador de topo ao longo da região Paleártica

Existem vários estudos sobre a dieta de predadores de topo a uma escala local, mas o estudo da dieta de uma espécie ao longo de diferentes regiões geográficas poderá permitir a deteção de certos padrões e variações ecológicas. Para estudar a variação biogeográfica da dieta do bufo-real (Bubo bubo) ao longo do Paleártico criou-se uma base de dados baseada em 192 estudos. Pretendia-se analisar padrões em macro-escala de descritores da dieta e avaliar o efeito de diferentes condições ambientais, de descritores da paisagem e da disponibilidade de presas. Registaram-se 346813 presas de 698 espécies distintas. As principais presas são os lagomorfos e os roedores, enquanto que as aves constituem importantes presas alternativas. Temperaturas mais elevadas favorecem a diversidade trófica, mas esta diminui com a latitude e a longitude. Os resultados revelam a natureza oportunista do bufo-real e a sua elevada adaptabilidade trófica a diferentes habitats e condições ambientais; Biogeographic analysis of a top predator's diet across the Paleartic Region Summary: There are several studies about top predators' diet at a local scale, but studying a species diet across different geographic regions may allow the detection of certain patterns and variations which might influence its ecological features. We created a database of 192 papers to study the diet of the Eurasian Eagle Owl (Bubo bubo) across the Palearctic region. We analysed large scale biogeographical patterns of diet descriptors in relation to different environmental conditions, including climate, landscape and prey availability. We recorded 346816 preys from 698 different species. The main prey groups are lagomorphs and rodents, whereas birds represent important alternative prey. Higher temperatures favour a higher trophic diversity, which in turn decreases at lower latitudes and longitudes. The results reveal the opportunistic nature of the Eurasian Eagle Owl and its high trophic adaptability to different habitats and environments.

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

Power law distributions in pattern dynamics of attacker-defender dyads in the team sport of Rugby Union : phenomena in a region of self-organized criticality?

In the region of self-organized criticality (SOC) interdependency between multi-agent system components exists and slight changes in near-neighbor interactions can break the balance of equally poised options leading to transitions in system order. In this region, frequency of events of differing magnitudes exhibits a power law distribution. The aim of this paper was to investigate whether a power law distribution characterized attacker-defender interactions in team sports. For this purpose we observed attacker and defender in a dyadic sub-phase of rugby union near the try line. Videogrammetry was used to capture players’ motion over time as player locations were digitized. Power laws were calculated for the rate of change of players’ relative position. Data revealed that three emergent patterns from dyadic system interactions (i.e., try; unsuccessful tackle; effective tackle) displayed a power law distribution. Results suggested that pattern forming dynamics dyads in rugby union exhibited SOC. It was concluded that rugby union dyads evolve in SOC regions suggesting that players’ decisions and actions are governed by local interactions rules.

How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.