The Provisional Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation/American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism disease activity core set for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis: A prospective validation study

Objective. To validate a core set of outcome measures for the evaluation of response to treatment in patients with juvenile dermatomyositis (DM). Methods. In 2001, a preliminary consensus-derived core set for evaluating response to therapy in juvenile DM was established. In the present study, the core set was validated through an evidence-based, large-scale data collection that led to the enrollment of 294 patients from 36 countries. Consecutive patients with active disease were assessed at baseline and after 6 months. The validation procedures included assessment of feasibility, responsiveness, discriminant and construct ability, concordce in the evaluation of response to therapy between physicians and parents, redundancy, internal consistency, and ability to predict a therapeutic response. Results. The following clinical measures were found to be feasible, and to have good construct validity, discriminative ability, and internal consistency; furthermore, they were not redundant, proved responsive to clinically important changes in disease activity, and were associated strongly with treatment outcome and thus were included in the final core set: 1) physician`s global assessment of disease activity, 2) muscle strength, 3) global disease activity measure, 4) parent`s global assessment of patient`s well-being, 5) functional ability, and 6) health-related quality of life. Conclusion. The members of the Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation, with the endorsement of the American College of Rheumatology and the European Leauge Against Rheumatism, propose a core set of criteria for the evaluation of response of therapy that is scientifically and clinically relevant and statistically validated. The core set will help standardize the conduct and reporting of clinical trials and assist practitioners in deciding whether a child with juvenile DM has responded adequately to therapy.

Scores to predict major bleeding risk during oral anticoagulation therapy: a prospective validation study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical scores may help physicians to better assess the individual risk/benefit of oral anticoagulant therapy. We aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of 7 clinical prediction scores for major bleeding events during oral anticoagulation therapy. METHODS: We followed 515 adult patients taking oral anticoagulants to measure the first major bleeding event over a 12-month follow-up period. The performance of each score to predict the risk of major bleeding and the physician's subjective assessment of bleeding risk were compared with the C statistic. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of a first major bleeding event during follow-up was 6.8% (35/515). According to the 7 scoring systems, the proportions of major bleeding ranged from 3.0% to 5.7% for low-risk, 6.7% to 9.9% for intermediate-risk, and 7.4% to 15.4% for high-risk patients. The overall predictive accuracy of the scores was poor, with the C statistic ranging from 0.54 to 0.61 and not significantly different from each other (P=.84). Only the Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation score performed slightly better than would be expected by chance (C statistic, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.70). The performance of the scores was not statistically better than physicians' subjective risk assessments (C statistic, 0.55; P=.94). CONCLUSION: The performance of 7 clinical scoring systems in predicting major bleeding events in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy was poor and not better than physicians' subjective assessments.

Prospective validation of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index. A clinical prognostic model for pulmonary embolism

Practice guidelines recommend outpatient care for selected patients with non-massive pulmonary embolism (PE), but fail to specify how these low-risk patients should be identified. Using data from U.S. patients, we previously derived the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), a prediction rule that risk stratifies patients with PE. We sought to validate the PESI in a European patient cohort. We prospectively validated the PESI in patients with PE diagnosed at six emergency departments in three European countries. We used baseline data for the rule's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V) of increasing probability of mortality. The outcome was overall mortality at 90 days after presentation. To assess the accuracy of the PESI to predict mortality, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for low- (risk classes I/II) versus higher-risk patients (risk classes III-V), and the discriminatory power using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Among 357 patients with PE, overall mortality was 5.9%, ranging from 0% in class I to 17.9% in class V. The 186 (52%) low-risk patients had an overall mortality of 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-3.8%) compared to 11.1% (95% CI: 6.8-16.8%) in the 171 (48%) higher-risk patients. The PESI had a high sensitivity (91%, 95% CI: 71-97%) and a negative predictive value (99%, 95% CI: 96-100%) for predicting mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70-0.86). The PESI reliably identifies patients with PE who are at low risk of death and who are potential candidates for outpatient care. The PESI may help physicians make more rational decisions about hospitalization for patients with PE.

Neurological Prognostication after Cardiac Arrest and Therapeutic Hypothermia: a Prospective Validation Study

Introduction: Clinical examination and electroencephalography study (EEG) have been recommended to predict functional recovery in comatose survivors of cardiac arrest (CA), however their prognostic value in patients treated with induced hypothermia (IH) has not been evaluated. Hypothesis: We aimed to validate the prognostic ability of clinical examination and EEG in predicting outcome of patients with coma after CA treated with IH and sought to derive a score with high predictive value for poor functional outcome in this setting. Methods: We prospectively studied 100 consecutive comatose survivors of CA treated with IH. Repeated neurological examination and EEG were performed early after passive rewarming and off sedation. Mortality was assessed at hospital discharge, and functional outcome at 3 to 6 months with Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC), and was dichotomized as good (CPC 1-2) vs. poor (CPC 3-5). Independent predictors of outcome were identified by multivariable logistic regression and used to assess the prognostic value of a Reproducible Electro-clinical Prognosticators of Outcome Score (REPOS). Results: Patients (20/100) with good outcome had all a reactive EEG background. Incomplete recovery of brainstem reflexes, myoclonus, time to return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) > 25 min, and unreactive EEG background were all independent predictors of death and severe disability, and were added to construct the REPOS. Using a cut-off of 0 or 1 variables for good vs. 2 to 4 for poor outcome, the REPOS had a positive predictive value of 1.00 (95% CI: 0.92-1.00), a negative predictive value of 0.43 (95% CI: 0.29-0.58) and an accuracy of 0.81 for poor functional recovery at 3 to 6 months. Conclusions: In comatose survivors of CA treated with IH, a prognostic score, including clinical and EEG examination, was highly predictive of death and poor functional outcome at 3 to 6 months. Lack of EEG background reactivity strongly predicted poor neurological recovery after CA. Our findings show that clinical and electrophysiological studies are effective in predicting long-term outcome of comatose survivors after CA and IH, and suggest that EEG improves early prognostic assessment in the setting of therapeutic cooling.

Identification and prospective validation of clinically relevant chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) subtypes.

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is increasingly considered a heterogeneous condition. It was hypothesised that COPD, as currently defined, includes different clinically relevant subtypes. Methods To identify and validate COPD subtypes, 342 subjects hospitalised for the first time because of a COPD exacerbation were recruited. Three months after discharge, when clinically stable, symptoms and quality of life, lung function, exercise capacity, nutritional status, biomarkers of systemic and bronchial inflammation, sputum microbiology, CT of the thorax and echocardiography were assessed. COPD groups were identified by partitioning cluster analysis and validated prospectively against cause-specific hospitalisations and all-cause mortality during a 4 year follow-up. Results Three COPD groups were identified: group 1 (n ¼ 126, 67 years) was characterised by severe airflow limitation (postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV 1 ) 38% predicted) and worse performance in most of the respiratory domains of the disease; group 2 (n ¼ 125, 69 years) showed milder airflow limitation (FEV 1 63% predicted); and group 3 (n ¼ 91, 67 years) combined a similarly milder airflow limitation (FEV 1 58% predicted) with a high proportion of obesity, cardiovascular disorders, iabetes and systemic inflammation. During follow-up, group 1 had more frequent hospitalisations due to COPD (HR 3.28, p < 0.001) and higher all-cause mortality (HR 2.36, p ¼ 0.018) than the other two groups, whereas group 3 had more admissions due to cardiovascular disease (HR 2.87, p ¼ 0.014). Conclusions In patients with COPD recruited at their first hospitalisation, three different COPD subtypes were identified and prospectively validated:"severe respiratory COPD","moderate respiratory COPD", and"systemic COPD'

Quality of life after pulmonary embolism: Prospective validation of the German version of the PEmb-QoL questionnaire.

BACKGROUND: The Pulmonary Embolism Quality of Life questionnaire (PEmb-QoL) is a 40-item questionnaire to measure health-related quality of life in patients with pulmonary embolism. It covers six 6 dimensions: frequency of complaints, limitations in activities of daily living, work-related problems, social limitations, intensity of complaints, and emotional complaints. Originally developed in Dutch and English, we prospectively validated a German version of the PEmb-QoL. METHODS: A forward-backward translation of the English version of the PEmb-QoL into German was performed. German-speaking consecutive adult patients aged ≥18 years with an acute, objectively confirmed pulmonary embolism discharged from a Swiss university hospital (01/2011-06/2013) were recruited telephonically. Established psychometric tests and criteria were used to evaluate the acceptability, reliability, and validity of the German PEmb-QoL questionnaire. To assess the underlying dimensions, an exploratory factor analysis was performed. RESULTS: Overall, 102 patients were enrolled in the study. The German version of the PEmb-QoL showed a good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha ranging from 0.72 to 0.96), item-total (0.53-0.95) and inter-item correlations (>0.4), and test-retest reliability (intra-class correlation coefficients 0.59-0.89) for the dimension scores. A moderate correlation of the PEmb-QoL with SF-36 dimension and summary scores (0.21-0.83) indicated convergent validity, while low correlations of PEmb-QoL dimensions with clinical characteristics (-0.16-0.37) supported discriminant validity. The exploratory factor analysis suggested four underlying dimensions: limitations in daily activities, symptoms, work-related problems, and emotional complaints. CONCLUSION: The German version of the PEmb-QoL questionnaire is a valid and reliable disease-specific measure for quality of life in patients with pulmonary embolism.

Identification and prospective validation of clinically relevant chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) subtypes.

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is increasingly considered a heterogeneous condition. It was hypothesised that COPD, as currently defined, includes different clinically relevant subtypes. Methods To identify and validate COPD subtypes, 342 subjects hospitalised for the first time because of a COPD exacerbation were recruited. Three months after discharge, when clinically stable, symptoms and quality of life, lung function, exercise capacity, nutritional status, biomarkers of systemic and bronchial inflammation, sputum microbiology, CT of the thorax and echocardiography were assessed. COPD groups were identified by partitioning cluster analysis and validated prospectively against cause-specific hospitalisations and all-cause mortality during a 4 year follow-up. Results Three COPD groups were identified: group 1 (n ¼ 126, 67 years) was characterised by severe airflow limitation (postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV 1 ) 38% predicted) and worse performance in most of the respiratory domains of the disease; group 2 (n ¼ 125, 69 years) showed milder airflow limitation (FEV 1 63% predicted); and group 3 (n ¼ 91, 67 years) combined a similarly milder airflow limitation (FEV 1 58% predicted) with a high proportion of obesity, cardiovascular disorders, iabetes and systemic inflammation. During follow-up, group 1 had more frequent hospitalisations due to COPD (HR 3.28, p < 0.001) and higher all-cause mortality (HR 2.36, p ¼ 0.018) than the other two groups, whereas group 3 had more admissions due to cardiovascular disease (HR 2.87, p ¼ 0.014). Conclusions In patients with COPD recruited at their first hospitalisation, three different COPD subtypes were identified and prospectively validated:"severe respiratory COPD","moderate respiratory COPD", and"systemic COPD'

Predicting recurrence after unprovoked venous thromboembolism: prospective validation of the updated Vienna Prediction Model.

The updated Vienna Prediction Model for estimating recurrence risk after an unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) has been developed to identify individuals at low risk for VTE recurrence in whom anticoagulation (AC) therapy may be stopped after 3 months. We externally validated the accuracy of the model to predict recurrent VTE in a prospective multicenter cohort of 156 patients aged ≥65 years with acute symptomatic unprovoked VTE who had received 3 to 12 months of AC. Patients with a predicted 12-month risk within the lowest quartile based on the updated Vienna Prediction Model were classified as low risk. The risk of recurrent VTE did not differ between low- vs higher-risk patients at 12 months (13% vs 10%; P = .77) and 24 months (15% vs 17%; P = 1.0). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting VTE recurrence was 0.39 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25-0.52) at 12 months and 0.43 (95% CI, 0.31-0.54) at 24 months. In conclusion, in elderly patients with unprovoked VTE who have stopped AC, the updated Vienna Prediction Model does not discriminate between patients who develop recurrent VTE and those who do not. This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00973596.

The Pediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organization American-College-of-Rheumatology provisional criteria for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus: Prospective validation of the definition of improvement

Objective. To use the Pediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organization (PRINTO) core set of outcome measures to develop a validated definition of improvement for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).Methods. Thirty-seven experienced pediatric rheumatologists from 27 countries, each of whom had specific experience in the assessment of juvenile SLE patients, achieved consensus on 128 patient profiles as being clinically improved or not improved. Using the physicians' consensus ratings as the gold standard measure, the chi-square, sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and false-negative rates, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and kappa level of agreement for 597 candidate definitions of improvement were calculated. Only definitions with a kappa value greater than 0.7 were retained. The top definitions were selected based on the product of the content validity score multiplied by its kappa statistic.Results. The definition of improvement with the highest final score was at least 50% improvement from baseline in any 2 of the 5 core set measures, with no more than 1 of the remaining worsening by more than 30%.Conclusion. PRINTO proposes a valid and reproducible definition of improvement that reflects well the consensus rating of experienced clinicians and that incorporates clinically meaningful change in core set measures in a composite end point for the evaluation of global response to therapy in patients with juvenile SLE. The definition is now proposed for use in juvenile SLE clinical trials and may help physicians to decide whether a child with SLE responded adequately to therapy.

Scores to predict major bleeding risk during oral anticoagulation therapy: a prospective validation study

Clinical scores may help physicians to better assess the individual risk/benefit of oral anticoagulant therapy. We aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of 7 clinical prediction scores for major bleeding events during oral anticoagulation therapy.

Drug-eluting or bare-metal stents for large coronary vessel stenting? The BASKET-PROVE (PROspective Validation Examination) trial: study protocol and design

BACKGROUND: Based on a subgroup analysis of 18-month BAsel Stent Kosten Effektivitäts Trial (BASKET) outcome data, we hypothesized that very late (> 12 months) stent thrombosis occurs predominantly after drug-eluting stent implantation in large native coronary vessel stenting. METHODS: To prove or refute this hypothesis, we set up an 11-center 4-country prospective trial of 2260 consecutive patients treated with > or = 3.0-mm stents only, randomized to receive Cypher (Johnson ; Johnson, Miami Lakes, FL), Vision (Abbott Vascular, Abbott Laboratories, IL), or Xience stents (Abbott Vascular). Only patients with left main or bypass graft disease, in-stent restenosis or stent thrombosis, in need of nonheart surgery, at increased bleeding risk, without compliance/consent are excluded. All patients are treated with dual antiplatelet therapy for 12 months. The primary end point will be cardiac death/nonfatal myocardial infarction after 24 months with further follow-up up to 5 years. RESULTS: By June 12, 229 patients (10% of the planned total) were included with a baseline risk similar to that of the same subgroup of BASKET (n = 588). CONCLUSIONS: This study will answer several important questions of contemporary stent use in patients with large native vessel stenting. The 2-year death/myocardial infarction-as well as target vessel revascularization-and bleeding rates in these patients with a first- versus second-generation drug-eluting stent should demonstrate the benefit or harm of these stents compared to cobalt-chromium bare-metal stents in this relevant, low-risk group of everyday patients. In addition, a comparison with similar BASKET patients will allow to estimate the impact of 12- versus 6-month dual antiplatelet therapy on these outcomes.

Total Tumor Volume and Alpha Fetoprotein for selection of transplant candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma: A prospective validation.

The selection of liver transplant candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is currently validated based on Milan criteria. The use of extended criteria has remained a matter of debate, mainly because of the absence of prospective validation. The present prospective study recruited patients according to the previously proposed Total Tumor Volume (TTV ≤115 cm(3) )/alpha fetoprotein (AFP ≤400 ng/ml) score. Patients with AFP >400 ng/ml were excluded, and as such the Milan group was modified to include only patients with AFP <400 ng/ml; these patients were compared to patients beyond Milan, but within TTV/AFP. From January 2007 to March 2013, 233 patients with HCC were listed for liver transplantation. Of them, 195 patients were within Milan, and 38 beyond Milan but within TTV/AFP. The average follow-up from listing was 33,9 ±24,9 months. The risk of drop-out was higher for patients beyond Milan but within TTV/AFP (16/38, 42,1%), than for patients within Milan (49/195, 25,1%, p=0,033). In parallel, intent-to-treat survival from listing was lower in the patients beyond Milan (53,8% vs. 71,6% at four years, p<0,001). After a median waiting time of 8 months, 166 patients were transplanted, 134 patients within Milan criteria, and 32 beyond Milan but within TTV/AFP. They demonstrated acceptable and similar recurrence rates (4,5% vs. 9,4%, p=0,138) and post-transplant survivals (78,7% vs. 74,6% at four years, p=0,932). CONCLUSION Based on the present prospective study, HCC liver transplant candidate selection could be expanded to the TTV (≤115 cm(3) )/AFP (≤400 ng/ml) criteria in centers with at least 8-month waiting time. An increased risk of drop-out on the waiting list can be expected but with equivalent and satisfactory post-transplant survival. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Quality of life after pulmonary embolism: Prospective validation of the German version of the PEmb-QoL questionnaire.

BACKGROUND The Pulmonary Embolism Quality of Life questionnaire (PEmb-QoL) is a 40-item questionnaire to measure health-related quality of life in patients with pulmonary embolism. It covers six 6 dimensions: frequency of complaints, limitations in activities of daily living, work-related problems, social limitations, intensity of complaints, and emotional complaints. Originally developed in Dutch and English, we prospectively validated a German version of the PEmb-QoL. METHODS A forward-backward translation of the English version of the PEmb-QoL into German was performed. German-speaking consecutive adult patients aged ≥18 years with an acute, objectively confirmed pulmonary embolism discharged from a Swiss university hospital (01/2011-06/2013) were recruited telephonically. Established psychometric tests and criteria were used to evaluate the acceptability, reliability, and validity of the German PEmb-QoL questionnaire. To assess the underlying dimensions, an exploratory factor analysis was performed. RESULTS Overall, 102 patients were enrolled in the study. The German version of the PEmb-QoL showed a good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha ranging from 0.72 to 0.96), item-total (0.53-0.95) and inter-item correlations (>0.4), and test-retest reliability (intra-class correlation coefficients 0.59-0.89) for the dimension scores. A moderate correlation of the PEmb-QoL with SF-36 dimension and summary scores (0.21-0.83) indicated convergent validity, while low correlations of PEmb-QoL dimensions with clinical characteristics (-0.16-0.37) supported discriminant validity. The exploratory factor analysis suggested four underlying dimensions: limitations in daily activities, symptoms, work-related problems, and emotional complaints. CONCLUSION The German version of the PEmb-QoL questionnaire is a valid and reliable disease-specific measure for quality of life in patients with pulmonary embolism.

Predicting recurrence after unprovoked venous thromboembolism: prospective validation of the updated Vienna Prediction Model.

The updated Vienna Prediction Model for estimating recurrence risk after an unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) has been developed to identify individuals at low risk for VTE recurrence in whom anticoagulation (AC) therapy may be stopped after 3 months. We externally validated the accuracy of the model to predict recurrent VTE in a prospective multicenter cohort of 156 patients aged ≥65 years with acute symptomatic unprovoked VTE who had received 3 to 12 months of AC. Patients with a predicted 12-month risk within the lowest quartile based on the updated Vienna Prediction Model were classified as low risk. The risk of recurrent VTE did not differ between low- vs higher-risk patients at 12 months (13% vs 10%; P = .77) and 24 months (15% vs 17%; P = 1.0). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting VTE recurrence was 0.39 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25-0.52) at 12 months and 0.43 (95% CI, 0.31-0.54) at 24 months. In conclusion, in elderly patients with unprovoked VTE who have stopped AC, the updated Vienna Prediction Model does not discriminate between patients who develop recurrent VTE and those who do not. This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00973596.