Size at birth and lipoprotein concentrations in adulthood: two prospective studies in Latin American cities

Background The relationship between birth weight and plasma lipoproteins is inconsistent. Aims To assess the association between birth weight and (1) body mass index (BMI) at birth and (2) lipoproteins in young adults, and also to explore the possible effect of current obesity as a possible effect modifier. Methods Two prospective studies based on representative samples of subjects born in the 1970s were carried out in Ribeirao Preto, Brazil (n = 2063) and Limache, Chile (n = 999). The surveys were carried out between 2001 and 2004. Results Mean birth weights were 3267 g and 3177 g and mean adult BMIs were 24.3 kg/m(2) and 25.8 kg/m(2) in the Brazilian and Chilean samples, respectively. Total adult cholesterol was 4.57 mmol/l in Chileans, 0.26 mmol/l higher than in Brazilians (p < 0.001). The main finding was an interaction between adult obesity (BMI 30 or over) and birth weight and also BMI at birth and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and total cholesterol. A birth-weight increment of 1 kg was associated with a decrease in total cholesterol (-0.374 mmol/l, 95% CI -0.567 to -0.181) and LDL (-0.304 mmol/l (-0.479 to -0.129) in obese participants only. These associations persisted after allowing for gestational age in a smaller sample. This finding was consistent in separate analyses in the Brazilian and Chilean samples. No associations were found in relation to high-density lipoprotein and triglyceride concentrations. Conclusion The results suggest that those who were of low birth weight and are obese are more likely to have high cholesterol and LDL concentrations. Thus preventing obesity may be especially rewarding in subjects with a low birth weight.

Overweight and obesity increase the risk of coronary heart disease: A pooled analysis of 30 prospective studies

The importance of overweight as a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) remains unsettled. We estimated the relative risk (RR) for CHD associated with underweight (body mass index, BMI < 20 kg/m2), overweight (25 – 30 kg/m2) and obesity (= 30 kg/m2), compared with normal weight (20 – 25 kg/m2) in a random effects meta-analysis of 30 prospective studies, including 389,239 healthy, predominantly Caucasian persons. We also explored sources of heterogeneity between studies and examined effects of systematic adjustment for confounding and intermediary variables. Pooled age-, sex- and smoking-adjusted RRs (95% confidence interval) for overweight, obesity and underweight compared with normal weight were 1.33 (1.24 – 1.43), 1.69 (1.44 – 1.99) and 1.01 (0.85 – 1.20), respectively. Stratified analyses showed that pooled RRs for BMI were higher for studies with longer follow-up (= vs. < 15 years) and younger populations (< vs. = 60 years). Additional adjustment for blood pressure, cholesterol levels and physical activity decreased the RR per 5 BMI units from 1.28 (1.21 – 1.34) to 1.16 (1.11 – 1.21). We conclude that overweight and obesity are associated with a substantially increased CHD risk in Caucasians, whereas underweight is not. Prevention and reduction of overweight and obesity, therefore, remain of importance for preventing CHD.

Cigarette smoking and the incidence of Parkinson's disease in two prospective studies

An inverse association between cigarette smoking and idiopathic Parkinson's disease has been reported in several retrospective studies, but prospective evidence is available only for men. We assessed the association between the incidence of Parkinson's disease and smoking in two large prospective cohort studies comprising men and women. New cases of Parkinson's disease were identified in the Nurses' Health Study for 1976-1996, and in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study for 1986-1996. Smoking history was assessed at baseline and updated on subsequent biennial questionnaires. In women, the age-adjusted rate ratios (95% confidence intervals) for Parkinson's disease relative to never-smokers were 0.7 (0.5, 1.0) for past smokers, and 0.4 (0.2, 0.7) for current smokers. In men, the age-adjusted rate ratios for Parkinson's disease relative to never-smokers were 0.5 (0.4, 0.7) for past smokers, and 0.3 (0.1, 0.8) for current smokers. In both cohorts, the strength of the association decreased with time since quitting (among past smokers), increased with number of cigarettes per day (among current smokers), and increased with pack-years of smoking. These prospective findings confirm that an inverse association between smoking and the incidence of Parkinson's disease exists in both men and women.

Circulating carotenoids and risk of breast cancer: pooled analysis of eight prospective studies.

Background Carotenoids, micronutrients in fruits and vegetables, may reduce breast cancer risk. Most, but not all, past studies of circulating carotenoids and breast cancer have found an inverse association with at least one carotenoid, although the specific carotenoid has varied across studies. Methods We conducted a pooled analysis of eight cohort studies comprising more than 80% of the world's published prospective data on plasma or serum carotenoids and breast cancer, including 3055 case subjects and 3956 matched control subjects. To account for laboratory differences and examine population differences across studies, we recalibrated participant carotenoid levels to a common standard by reassaying 20 plasma or serum samples from each cohort together at the same laboratory. Using conditional logistic regression, adjusting for several breast cancer risk factors, we calculated relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using quintiles defined among the control subjects from all studies. All P values are two-sided. Results Statistically significant inverse associations with breast cancer were observed for α-carotene (top vs bottom quintile RR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.71 to 1.05, Ptrend = .04), β-carotene (RR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.70 to 0.98, Ptrend = .02), lutein+zeaxanthin (RR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.70 to 1.01, Ptrend = .05), lycopene (RR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.99, Ptrend = .02), and total carotenoids (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.68 to 0.96, Ptrend = .01). β-Cryptoxanthin was not statistically significantly associated with risk. Tests for heterogeneity across studies were not statistically significant. For several carotenoids, associations appeared stronger for estrogen receptor negative (ER(-)) than for ER(+) tumors (eg, β-carotene: ER(-): top vs bottom quintile RR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.77, Ptrend = .001; ER(+): RR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.66 to 1.04, Ptrend = .06; Pheterogeneity = .01). Conclusions This comprehensive prospective analysis suggests women with higher circulating levels of α-carotene, β-carotene, lutein+zeaxanthin, lycopene, and total carotenoids may be at reduced risk of breast cancer.

Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients up to 5 years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy. DESIGN: A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and North America on 20,379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003. METHODS: Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. RESULTS: During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/microl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8-65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1-99% for AIDS or death and 1.3-96% for death alone. CONCLUSION: On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org.

Long-term immunologic response to antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies

BACKGROUND: Few data are available on the long-term immunologic response to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings, where ART is being rapidly scaled up using a public health approach, with a limited repertoire of drugs. OBJECTIVES: To describe immunologic response to ART among ART patients in a network of cohorts from sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Asia. STUDY POPULATION/METHODS: Treatment-naive patients aged 15 and older from 27 treatment programs were eligible. Multilevel, linear mixed models were used to assess associations between predictor variables and CD4 cell count trajectories following ART initiation. RESULTS: Of 29 175 patients initiating ART, 8933 (31%) were excluded due to insufficient follow-up time and early lost to follow-up or death. The remaining 19 967 patients contributed 39 200 person-years on ART and 71 067 CD4 cell count measurements. The median baseline CD4 cell count was 114 cells/microl, with 35% having less than 100 cells/microl. Substantial intersite variation in baseline CD4 cell count was observed (range 61-181 cells/microl). Women had higher median baseline CD4 cell counts than men (121 vs. 104 cells/microl). The median CD4 cell count increased from 114 cells/microl at ART initiation to 230 [interquartile range (IQR) 144-338] at 6 months, 263 (IQR 175-376) at 1 year, 336 (IQR 224-472) at 2 years, 372 (IQR 242-537) at 3 years, 377 (IQR 221-561) at 4 years, and 395 (IQR 240-592) at 5 years. In multivariable models, baseline CD4 cell count was the most important determinant of subsequent CD4 cell count trajectories. CONCLUSION: These data demonstrate robust and sustained CD4 response to ART among patients remaining on therapy. Public health and programmatic interventions leading to earlier HIV diagnosis and initiation of ART could substantially improve patient outcomes in resource-limited settings.

The role of psychological stress in inflammatory bowel disease: quality assessment of methods of 18 prospective studies and suggestions for future research

BACKGROUND: Enquiries among patients on the one hand and experimental and observational studies on the other suggest an influence of stress on inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). However, since this influence remains hypothetical, further research is essential. We aimed to devise recommendations for future investigations in IBD by means of scrutinizing previously applied methodology. METHODS: We critically reviewed prospective clinical studies on the effect of psychological stress on IBD. Eligible studies were searched by means of the PubMed electronic library and through checking the bibliographies of located sources. RESULTS: We identified 20 publications resulting from 18 different studies. Sample sizes ranged between 10 and 155 participants. Study designs in terms of patient assessment, control variables, and applied psychometric instruments varied substantially across studies. Methodological strengths and weaknesses were irregularly dispersed. Thirteen studies reported significant relationships between stress and adverse outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Study designs, including accuracy of outcome assessment and repeated sampling of outcomes (i.e. symptoms, clinical, and endoscopic), depended upon conditions like sample size, participants' compliance, and available resources. Meeting additional criteria of sound methodology, like taking into account covariates of the disease and its course, is strongly recommended to possibly improve study designs in future IBD research.

Mortality in patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in South Africa, Europe, or North America: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND High early mortality in patients with HIV-1 starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to Europe and North America, is well documented. Longer-term comparisons between settings have been limited by poor ascertainment of mortality in high burden African settings. This study aimed to compare mortality up to four years on ART between South Africa, Europe, and North America. METHODS AND FINDINGS Data from four South African cohorts in which patients lost to follow-up (LTF) could be linked to the national population register to determine vital status were combined with data from Europe and North America. Cumulative mortality, crude and adjusted (for characteristics at ART initiation) mortality rate ratios (relative to South Africa), and predicted mortality rates were described by region at 0-3, 3-6, 6-12, 12-24, and 24-48 months on ART for the period 2001-2010. Of the adults included (30,467 [South Africa], 29,727 [Europe], and 7,160 [North America]), 20,306 (67%), 9,961 (34%), and 824 (12%) were women. Patients began treatment with markedly more advanced disease in South Africa (median CD4 count 102, 213, and 172 cells/µl in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively). High early mortality after starting ART in South Africa occurred mainly in patients starting ART with CD4 count <50 cells/µl. Cumulative mortality at 4 years was 16.6%, 4.7%, and 15.3% in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively. Mortality was initially much lower in Europe and North America than South Africa, but the differences were reduced or reversed (North America) at longer durations on ART (adjusted rate ratios 0.46, 95% CI 0.37-0.58, and 1.62, 95% CI 1.27-2.05 between 24 and 48 months on ART comparing Europe and North America to South Africa). While bias due to under-ascertainment of mortality was minimised through death registry linkage, residual bias could still be present due to differing approaches to and frequency of linkage. CONCLUSIONS After accounting for under-ascertainment of mortality, with increasing duration on ART, the mortality rate on HIV treatment in South Africa declines to levels comparable to or below those described in participating North American cohorts, while substantially narrowing the differential with the European cohorts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Safety of oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-based pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention: prospective studies in HIV-uninfected men and women

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Lateral epicondylitis and physical exposure at work? A review of prospective studies and meta-analysis

International audience

Body-mass index and incidence of cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective observational studies

BACKGROUND: Excess bodyweight, expressed as increased body-mass index (BMI), is associated with the risk of some common adult cancers. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the strength of associations between BMI and different sites of cancer and to investigate differences in these associations between sex and ethnic groups. METHODS: We did electronic searches on Medline and Embase (1966 to November 2007), and searched reports to identify prospective studies of incident cases of 20 cancer types. We did random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions of study-specific incremental estimates to determine the risk of cancer associated with a 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI. FINDINGS: We analysed 221 datasets (141 articles), including 282,137 incident cases. In men, a 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI was strongly associated with oesophageal adenocarcinoma (RR 1.52, p<0.0001) and with thyroid (1.33, p=0.02), colon (1.24, p<0.0001), and renal (1.24, p <0.0001) cancers. In women, we recorded strong associations between a 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI and endometrial (1.59, p<0.0001), gallbladder (1.59, p=0.04), oesophageal adenocarcinoma (1.51, p<0.0001), and renal (1.34, p<0.0001) cancers. We noted weaker positive associations (RR <1.20) between increased BMI and rectal cancer and malignant melanoma in men; postmenopausal breast, pancreatic, thyroid, and colon cancers in women; and leukaemia, multiple myeloma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma in both sexes. Associations were stronger in men than in women for colon (p<0.0001) cancer. Associations were generally similar in studies from North America, Europe and Australia, and the Asia-Pacific region, but we recorded stronger associations in Asia-Pacific populations between increased BMI and premenopausal (p=0.009) and postmenopausal (p=0.06) breast cancers. INTERPRETATION: Increased BMI is associated with increased risk of common and less common malignancies. For some cancer types, associations differ between sexes and populations of different ethnic origins. These epidemiological observations should inform the exploration of biological mechanisms that link obesity with cancer.

Prognostic importance of anaemia in HIV type-1-infected patients starting antiretroviral therapy: collaborative analysis of prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND: In HIV type-1-infected patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), the prognostic value of haemoglobin when starting HAART, and of changes in haemoglobin levels, are not well defined. METHODS: We combined data from 10 prospective studies of 12,100 previously untreated individuals (25% women). A total of 4,222 patients (35%) were anaemic: 131 patients (1.1%) had severe (<8.0 g/dl), 1,120 (9%) had moderate (male 8.0-<11.0 g/dl and female 8.0- < 10.0 g/dl) and 2,971 (25%) had mild (male 11.0- < 13.0 g/ dl and female 10.0- < 12.0 g/dl) anaemia. We separately analysed progression to AIDS or death from baseline and from 6 months using Weibull models, adjusting for CD4+ T-cell count, age, sex and other variables. RESULTS: During 48,420 person-years of follow-up 1,448 patients developed at least one AIDS event and 857 patients died. Anaemia at baseline was independently associated with higher mortality: the adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for mild anaemia was 1.42 (1.17-1.73), for moderate anaemia 2.56 (2.07-3.18) and for severe anaemia 5.26 (3.55-7.81). Corresponding figures for progression to AIDS were 1.60 (1.37-1.86), 2.00 (1.66-2.40) and 2.24 (1.46-3.42). At 6 months the prevalence of anaemia declined to 26%. Baseline anaemia continued to predict mortality (and to a lesser extent progression to AIDS) in patients with normal haemoglobin or mild anaemia at 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: Anaemia at the start of HAART is an important factor for short- and long-term prognosis, including in patients whose haemoglobin levels improved or normalized during the first 6 months of HAART.

Self-cutting and prospective repetition of self-harm: studies of emergency department presentations in Ireland

Background Self-harm places an individual at increased risk of future self-harm and suicide, and indicates distress and maladaptive coping. Those who present to hospital with self-cutting form a significant minority of self-harm patients who are at increased risk of prospective repetition of self-harm and suicide compared with those presenting with intentional overdose. In addition to increased risk, there is emerging evidence of demographic, psychological, clinical, and social differences between those presenting with self-cutting and those presenting with overdose. Aim and Key Objectives The aim of the current doctoral work was to examine in detail the association between presenting with self-cutting and risk of prospective repetition. The objectives were: to identify evidence-based risk factors for repetition of self-harm among those presenting to emergency departments with self-harm; to compare demographic and presentation characteristics and prospective repetition across presentations of self-cutting only, self-cutting plus intentional overdose, and intentional overdose only; to compare prospective repetition and other characteristics within self-cutting presentations based on the type of treatment received; to compare self-cutting and intentional overdose patients on psychological risk and protective factors for repetition; and to examine the lived experience of engaging in repeated overdose and self-cutting. Methods The current doctoral work used a mixed-methods approach and is comprised of one systematic review and four empirical studies. The empirical studies were two registry-based prospective studies of Irish hospital presentations of self-harm, one prospective structured interview study, and one qualitative study using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis. Results The systematic review identified several consistent and emerging risk factors for repetition of self-harm, compared to which self-cutting had a medium-sized effect. The registry studies demonstrated that the involvement of self-cutting, particularly less medically severe selfcutting, confers an increased risk of 1-month and 12-month repetition among Irish index selfharm presentations. The structured psychological study detected higher hopelessness and lower non-reactivity to inner experience among those presenting with self-cutting, and higher depression among those who repeated self-harm. Repeaters had lower baseline levels of protective psychological factors than non-repeaters and continued to have higher depression and hopelessness at follow-up. Finally, the qualitative study indicated that self-harm is a purposeful action taken in response to an overwhelming situation and is evaluated afterwards in terms of personal and social effects. Chosen method of self-harm seemed to be influenced by the desired outcome of the self-harm act, capability, accessibility and previous experience. Conclusion Despite limitations in terms of recruitment rates, the work presented in this thesis is innovative in examining the issue of the association between self-cutting and repetition from multiple perspectives. No one factor can reliably predict all repetition but self-cutting represents one consistent and easily detected risk factor for repetition. Those who present with self-cutting exhibit significant differences on demographic, clinical, and psychological variables compared with those presenting with intentional overdose, and seem to exhibit a more vulnerable profile. However, those who present with self-cutting do not form a discrete or homogenous group, and self-harm methods and levels of suicidal intent are liable to fluctuate over time.

Evaluation Of Soft-tissue Lesions With (18)f-fdg Pet/ct: Initial Results Of A Prospective Trial.

Although MRI is utilized for planning the resection of soft-tissue tumors, it is not always capable of differentiating benign from malignant lesions. The risk of local recurrence of soft-tissue sarcomas is increased when biopsies are performed before resection and by inadequate resections. PET associated with computed tomography using fluorodeoxyglucose labeled with fluorine-18 ((18)F-FDG PET/CT) may help differentiate between benign and malignant tumors, thus avoiding inadequate resections and making prior biopsies unnecessary. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of (18)F-FDG PET/CT in differentiating benign from malignant solid soft-tissue lesions. Patients with solid lesions of the limbs or abdominal wall detected by MRI were submitted to (18)F-FDG PET/CT. The maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) cutoff was determined to differentiate malignant from benign tumors. Regardless of the (18)F-FDG PET/CT results all patients underwent biopsy and surgery. MRI was performed in 54 patients, and 10 patients were excluded because of purely lipomatose or cystic lesions. (18)F-FDG PET/CT was performed in the remaining 44 patients. Histopathology revealed 26 (59%) benign and 18 (41%) malignant soft-tissue lesions. A significant difference in SUVmax was observed between benign and malignant soft-tissue lesions. The SUVmax cutoff of 3.0 differentiated malignant from benign lesions with 100% sensitivity, 83.3% specificity, 89.6% accuracy, 78.3% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value. (18)F-FDG PET/CT seems to be able to differentiate benign from malignant soft-tissue lesions with good accuracy and very high negative predictive value. Incorporating (18)F-FDG PET/CT into the diagnostic algorithm of these patients may prevent inadequate resections and unnecessary biopsies.