Environmental control of potential yield of sunflower in the subtropics

A simple framework was used to analyse the determinants of potential yield of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) in a subtropical environment. The aim was to investigate the stability of the determinants crop duration, canopy light interception, radiation use efficiency (RUE), and harvest index (HI) at 2 sowing times and with 3 genotypes differing in crop maturity and stature. Crop growth, phenology, light interception, yield, prevailing temperature, and radiation were recorded and measured throughout the crop cycle. Significant differences in grain yield were found between the 2 sowings, but not among genotypes within each sowing. Mean yields (0% moisture) were 6 . 02 and 2 . 17 t/ha for the first sowing, on 13 September (S1), and the second sowing, on 5 March (S2), respectively. Exceptionally high yields in S1 were due to high biomass assimilation associated with the high radiation environment, high light interception owing to a greater leaf area index, and high RUE (1 . 47-1 . 62 g/MJ) across genotypes. It is proposed that the high RUE was caused by high levels of available nitrogen maintained during crop growth by frequent applications of fertiliser and sewage effluent as irrigation. In addition to differences in the radiation environment, the assimilate partitioned to grain was reduced in S2 associated with a reduction in the duration of grain-filling. Harvest index was 0 . 40 in S1 and 0 . 25 in S2. It is hypothesised that low minimum temperatures experienced in S2 reduced assimilate production and partitioning, causing premature maturation.

Potential yield, return, and tree diversity of managed, uneven-aged Douglas-fir stands

Abstract

Estimating the potential yield of small wind turbines in urban areas: a case study for Greater London, UK

To optimise the placement of small wind turbines in urban areas a detailed understanding of the spatial variability of the wind resource is required. At present, due to a lack of observations, the NOABL wind speed database is frequently used to estimate the wind resource at a potential site. However, recent work has shown that this tends to overestimate the wind speed in urban areas. This paper suggests a method for adjusting the predictions of the NOABL in urban areas by considering the impact of the underlying surface on a neighbourhood scale. In which, the nature of the surface is characterised on a 1 km2 resolution using an urban morphology database. The model was then used to estimate the variability of the annual mean wind speed across Greater London at a height typical of current small wind turbine installations. Initial validation of the results suggests that the predicted wind speeds are considerably more accurate than the NOABL values. The derived wind map therefore currently provides the best opportunity to identify the neighbourhoods in Greater London at which small wind turbines yield their highest energy production. The model does not consider street scale processes, however previously derived scaling factors can be applied to relate the neighbourhood wind speed to a value at a specific rooftop site. The results showed that the wind speed predicted across London is relatively low, exceeding 4 ms-1 at only 27% of the neighbourhoods in the city. Of these sites less than 10% are within 10 km of the city centre, with the majority over 20 km from the city centre. Consequently, it is predicted that small wind turbines tend to perform better towards the outskirts of the city, therefore for cities which fit the Burgess concentric ring model, such as Greater London, ‘distance from city centre’ is a useful parameter for siting small wind turbines. However, there are a number of neighbourhoods close to the city centre at which the wind speed is relatively high and these sites can only been identified with a detailed representation of the urban surface, such as that developed in this study.

Potential yield and water-use effficiency benefits in sorghum from limited maximum transpiration rate

Limitations on maximum transpiration rates, which are commonly observed as midday stomatal closure, have been observed even under well-watered conditions. Such limitations may be caused by restricted hydraulic conductance in the plant or by limited supply of water to the plant from uptake by the roots. This behaviour would have the consequences of limiting photosynthetic rate, increasing transpiration efficiency, and conserving soil water. A key question is whether the conservation of water will be rewarded by sustained growth during seed fill and increased grain yield. This simulation analysis was undertaken to examine consequences on sorghum yield over several years when maximum transpiration rate was imposed in a model. Yields were simulated at four locations in the sorghum-growing area of Australia for 115 seasons at each location. Mean yield was increased slightly ( 5 - 7%) by setting maximum transpiration rate at 0.4 mm h(-1). However, the yield increase was mainly in the dry, low-yielding years in which growers may be more economically vulnerable. In years with yield less than similar to 450 g m(-2), the maximum transpiration rate trait resulted in yield increases of 9 - 13%. At higher yield levels, decreased yields were simulated. The yield responses to restricted maximum transpiration rate were associated with an increase in efficiency of water use. This arose because transpiration was reduced at times of the day when atmospheric demand was greatest. Depending on the risk attitude of growers, incorporation of a maximum transpiration rate trait in sorghum cultivars could be desirable to increase yields in dry years and improve water use efficiency and crop yield stability.

Contribution of potential yield, drought tolerance and escape to adaptation of 15 rice varieties in rainfed lowlands in Cambodia

In Cambodia, grain yield in rainfed lowland rice is often affected by drought during late vegetative or reproductive stage. Several experiments were conducted to quantify the contribution of potential yield, drought tolerance and drought escape mechanisms to yield under water stress conditions. In total nine pairs of well irrigated and simulated drought (by draining water) experiments were conducted. Potential yield was obtained under irrigation. Grain yields and flowering dates were recorded in 15 varieties. Drought tolerance was quantified by using drought response index (DRI), which is grain yield under drought adjusted for potential yield and flowering date of the variety. Drought escape is expressed as days to flower under drought conditions. Mean yield reduction due to drought of nine experiments was 27 % (range 12-44). The relative contribution of yield potential, flowering date and DRI to observe yield under drought were evaluated by multiple regression for each experiment. Potential yield accounted for 54% (with a range of 10-80) of the variation in actual yield under drought. This was followed by DRI and flowering date with 34 (with a range of 0-60) and 12 (with a range of 0-30) of the contribution, respectively. It is concluded that selecting for drought tolerance as well as for high yield potential would be important in developing cultivars for rainfed lowlands in Cambodia. Although flowering dates are important for drought escape, it had a small contribution probably because drought developed slowly in these experiments in Cambodia.

Attribution of climate change: a methodology to estimate the potential contribution to increases in potato yield in Scotland since 1960

Maincrop potato yields in Scotland have increased by 3035 similar to t similar to ha-1 since 1960 as a result of many changes, but has changing climate contributed anything to this? The purpose of this work was to answer this question. Daily weather data for the period 19602006 were analysed for five locations covering the zones of potato growing on the east coast of Scotland (between 55.213 and 57.646 similar to N) to determine trends in temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. A physiologically based potato yield model was validated using data obtained from a long-term field trial in eastern Scotland and then employed to simulate crop development and potential yield at each of the five sites. Over the 47 similar to years, there were significant increases in annual air and 30 similar to cm soil temperatures (0.27 and 0.30 similar to K similar to decade-1, respectively), but no significant changes in annual precipitation or in the timing of the last frost in spring and the first frost of autumn. There was no evidence of any north to south gradient of warming. Simulated emergence and canopy closure became earlier at all five sites over the period with the advance being greater in the north (3.7 and 3.6 similar to days similar to decade-1, respectively) than the south (0.5 and 0.8 similar to days similar to decade-1, respectively). Potential yield increased with time, generally reflecting the increased duration of the green canopy, at average rates of 2.8 similar to t similar to ha-1 decade-1 for chitted seed (sprouted prior to planting) and 2.5 similar to t similar to ha-1 decade-1 for unchitted seed. The measured warming could contribute potential yield increases of up to 13.2 similar to t similar to ha-1 for chitted potato (range 7.119.3 similar to t similar to ha-1) and 11.5 similar to t similar to ha-1 for unchitted potato (range 7.115.5 similar to t similar to ha-1) equivalent to 3439% of the increased potential yield over the period or 2326% of the increase in actual measured yields.

Yield potential and resource-use efficiency of maize systems in the western U.S. Corn Belt

Maize demand for food, livestock feed, and biofuel is expected to increase substantially. The Western U.S. Corn Belt accounts for 23% of U.S. maize production, and irrigated maize accounts for 43 and 58% of maize land area and total production, respectively, in this region. The most sensitive parameters (yield potential [YP], water-limited yield potential [YP-W], yield gap between actual yield and YP, and resource-use efficiency) governing performance of maize systems in the region are lacking. A simulation model was used to quantify YP under irrigated and rainfed conditions based on weather data, soil properties, and crop management at 18 locations. In a separate study, 5-year soil water data measured in central Nebraska were used to analyze soil water recharge during the non-growing season because soil water content at sowing is a critical component of water supply available for summer crops. On-farm data, including yield, irrigation, and nitrogen (N) rate for 777 field-years, was used to quantify size of yield gaps and evaluate resource-use efficiency. Simulated average YP and YP-W were 14.4 and 8.3 Mg ha-1, respectively. Geospatial variation of YP was associated with solar radiation and temperature during post-anthesis phase while variation in water-limited yield was linked to the longitudinal variation in seasonal rainfall and evaporative demand. Analysis of soil water recharge indicates that 80% of variation in soil water content at sowing can be explained by precipitation during non-growing season and residual soil water at end of previous growing season. A linear relationship between YP-W and water supply (slope: 19.3 kg ha-1 mm-1; x-intercept: 100 mm) can be used as a benchmark to diagnose and improve farmer’s water productivity (WP; kg grain per unit of water supply). Evaluation of data from farmer’s fields provides proof-of-concept and helps identify management constraints to high levels of productivity and resource-use efficiency. On average, actual yields of irrigated maize systems were 11% below YP. WP and N-fertilizer use efficiency (NUE) were high despite application of large amounts of irrigation water and N fertilizer (14 kg grain mm-1 water supply and 71 kg grain kg-1 N fertilizer). While there is limited scope for substantial increases in actual average yields, WP and NUE can be further increased by: (1) switching surface to pivot systems, (2) using conservation instead of conventional tillage systems in soybean-maize rotations, (3) implementation of irrigation schedules based on crop water requirements, and (4) better N fertilizer management.

Modified crop model estimation of depleted and potential soybean yield

Despite the great importance of soybeans in Brazil, there have been few applications of soybean crop modeling on Brazilian conditions. Thus, the objective of this study was to use modified crop models to estimate the depleted and potential soybean crop yield in Brazil. The climatic variable data used in the modified simulation of the soybean crop models were temperature, insolation and rainfall. The data set was taken from 33 counties (28 Sao Paulo state counties, and 5 counties from other states that neighbor São Paulo). Among the models, modifications in the estimation of the leaf area of the soybean crop, which includes corrections for the temperature, shading, senescence, CO2, and biomass partition were proposed; also, the methods of input for the model's simulation of the climatic variables were reconsidered. The depleted yields were estimated through a water balance, from which the depletion coefficient was estimated. It can be concluded that the adaptation soybean growth crop model might be used to predict the results of the depleted and potential yield of soybeans, and it can also be used to indicate better locations and periods of tillage.

Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Simulating potential growth and yield of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) with PALMSIM: Model description, evaluation and application.

Reducing the gap between water-limited potential yield and actual yield in oil palm production systems through intensification is seen as an important option for sustainably increasing palm oil production. Simulation models can play an important role in quantifying water-limited potential yield, and therefore the scope for intensification, but no oil palm model exists that is both simple enough and at the same time incorporates sufficient plant physiological knowledge to be generally applicable across sites with different growing conditions. The objectives of this study therefore were to develop a model (PALMSIM) that simulates, on a monthly time step, the potential growth of oil palm as determined by solar radiation and to evaluate model performance against measured oil palm yields under optimal water and nutrient management for a range of sites across Indonesia and Malaysia. The maximum observed yield in the field matches the corresponding simulated yield for dry bunch weight with a RMSE of 1.7 Mg ha?1 year?1 against an observed yield of 18.8 Mg ha?1. Sensitivity analysis showed that PALMSIM is robust: simulated changes in yield caused by modifying the parameters by 10% are comparable to other tree crop model evaluations. While we acknowledge that, depending on the soils and climatic environment, yields may be often water limited, we suggest a relatively simple physiological approach to simulate potential yield, which can be usefully applied to high rainfall environments and is considered as a first step in developing an oil palm model that also simulates water-limited potential yield. To illustrate the application possibil- ities of the model, PALMSIM was used to create a potential yield map for Indonesia and Malaysia by sim- ulating the growth and yield at a resolution of 0.1?. This map of potential yield is considered as a first step towards a decision support tool that can identify potentially productive, but at the moment degraded sites in Indonesia and Malaysia. ?

El Niño influence on potential maize yield in Iberian Peninsula

El Niño phenomenon is the leading mode of sea surface temperature interannual variability. It can affect weather patterns worldwide and therefore crop production. Crop models are useful tools for impact and predictability applications, allowing to obtain long time series of potential and attainable crop yield, unlike to available time series of observed crop yield for many countries. Using this tool, crop yield variability in a location of Iberia Peninsula (IP) has been previously studied, finding predictability from Pacific El Niño conditions. Nevertheless, the work has not been done for an extended area. The present work carries out an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The potential usefulness of this study is to apply the relationships found to improving crop forecasting in IP.

Simulating growth, development, and yield of tillering pearl millet. III. Biomass accumulation and partitioning

Pearl millet landraces from Rajasthan, India, yield significantly less than improved cultivars under optimum growing conditions, but not under stressed conditions. To successfully develop a simulation model for pearl millet, capable of capturing such genotype x environment (G x E) interactions for grain yield, we need to understand the causes of the observed yield interaction. The aim of this paper is to quantify the key parameters that determine the accumulation and partitioning of biomass: the,light extinction coefficient, radiation use efficiency (RUE), pattern of dry matter allocation to the leaf blades, the determination of grain number, and the rate and duration of dry matter accumulation into individual grains. We used data on improved cultivars and landraces, obtained from both published and unpublished sources collected at ICRISAT, Patancheru, India. Where possible, the effects of cultivar and axis (main shoot vs. tillers) on these parameters were analysed, as previous research suggested that G x E interactions for grain yield are associated with differences in tillering habit. Our results indicated there were no cultivar differences in extinction coefficient, RUE, and biomass partitioning before anthesis, and differences between axes in biomass partitioning were negligible. This indicates there was no basis for cultivar differences in the potential grain yield. Landraces, however, produced consistently less grain yield for a given rate of dry matter accumulation at anthesis than did improved cultivars. This was caused by a combination of low grain number and small grain size. The latter was predominantly due to a lower grain growth rate, as genotypic differences in the duration of grain filling were relatively small. Main shoot and tillers also had a similar duration of grain filling. The low grain yield of the landraces was associated with profuse nodal tillering, supporting the hypothesis that grain yield was below the potential yield that could be supported by assimilate availability. We hypothesise this is a survival strategy, which enhances the prospects to escape the effects of stress around anthesis. (C) 2002 E.J. van Oosterom. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Yield response of rice (Oryza sativa L.) genotypes to different types of drought under rainfed lowlands - Part 1. Grain yield and yield components

Responses of rice genotypes to drought stress may be different when characteristics of the drought stress environments differ. The performance of 128 genotypes was examined under irrigation and four different types of drought stress, to determine genotypic consistency in yield and factors determining yields under different drought stress conditions. The different drought conditions were mild drought during grain filling, short and severe drought at flowering, prolonged severe drought during the reproductive to grain filling, and prolonged mild drought during vegetative and grain filling. Genotypic grain yield under mild stress conditions was associated with yield under irrigated conditions, indicating the importance of potential yield in environments where the yield reduction was less than 50%. However, yields under irrigated conditions differed over time and locations. Under prolonged or severe drought conditions, flowering time was an important determinant of grain yield. Earlier flowering genotypes escaped the severe stress and had higher grain yields indicating large genotype by environment (G x E) interactions which have implications for plant breeding even for mild stress. It is suggested that variations in flowering time, potential yields and drought patterns need to be considered for development of drought-resistant cultivars using specific physiological traits. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Yield response of rice (Oryza sativa L.) genotypes to different types of drought under rainfed lowlands - Part 2. Selection of drought resistant genotypes

Drought frequently reduces grain yield of rainfed lowland rice. A series of experiments were conducted in drought-prone northeast Thailand to study the magnitude and consistency of yield responses of diverse, rainfed lowland rice genotypes to drought stress environments and to examine ways to identify genotypes that confer drought resistance. One hundred and twenty-eight genotypes were grown under non-stress and four different types of drought stress conditions. The relationship of genotypic variation in yield under drought conditions to genetic yield potential, flowering time and flowering delay, and to a drought response index (DRI) that removed the effect of potential yield and flowering time on yield under stress was examined. Drought stress that developed prior to flowering generally delayed the time of flowering of genotypes, and the delay in flowering was negatively associated with grain yield, fertile panicle percentage and filled grain percentage. Genotypes with a longer delay in flowering time had extracted more water during the early drought period, and as a consequence, had higher water deficits. They were consistently associated with a larger yield reduction under drought and in one experiment with a smaller DRI. Genotypes, however, responded differently to the different drought stress conditions and there was no consistency in the DRI estimates for the different genotypes across the drought stress experiments. The results indicate that with the use of irrigated-control and drought test environments, genotypes with drought resistance can be identified by using DRI or delay in flowering. However, selections will differ depending on the type of drought condition. The inconsistency of the estimates in DRI and flowering delay across different drought conditions reflects the nature of the large genotype-by-environment interactions observed for grain yield under various types of drought in rainfed lowland conditions. (C), 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The extent to which potential benefits to EU farmers of adopting transgenic crops are reduced by cost of compliance with coexistence regulations

This article forecasts the extent to which the potential benefits of adopting transgenic crops may be reduced by costs of compliance with coexistence regulations applicable in various member states of the EU. A dynamic economic model is described and used to calculate the potential yield and gross margin of a set of crops grown in a selection of typical rotation scenarios. The model simulates varying levels of pest, weed, and drought pressures, with associated management strategies regarding pesticide and herbicide application, and irrigation. We report on the initial use of the model to calculate the net reduction in gross margin attributable to coexistence costs for insect-resistant (IR) and herbicide-tolerant (HT) maize grown continuously or in a rotation, HT soya grown in a rotation, HT oilseed rape grown in a rotation, and HT sugarbeet grown in a rotation. Conclusions are drawn about conditions favoring inclusion of a transgenic crop in a crop rotation, having regard to farmers’ attitude toward risk.