Changements dans la répartition des décès selon l'âge : une approche non paramétrique pour l'étude de la mortalité adulte

Au cours du siècle dernier, nous avons pu observer une diminution remarquable de la mortalité dans toutes les régions du monde, en particulier dans les pays développés. Cette chute a été caractérisée par des modifications importantes quant à la répartition des décès selon l'âge, ces derniers ne se produisant plus principalement durant les premiers âges de la vie mais plutôt au-delà de l'âge de 65 ans. Notre étude s'intéresse spécifiquement au suivi fin et détaillé des changements survenus dans la distribution des âges au décès chez les personnes âgées. Pour ce faire, nous proposons une nouvelle méthode de lissage non paramétrique souple qui repose sur l'utilisation des P-splines et qui mène à une expression précise de la mortalité, telle que décrite par les données observées. Les résultats de nos analyses sont présentés sous forme d'articles scientifiques, qui s'appuient sur les données de la Human Mortality Database, la Base de données sur la longévité canadienne et le Registre de la population du Québec ancien reconnues pour leur fiabilité. Les conclusions du premier article suggèrent que certains pays à faible mortalité auraient récemment franchi l'ère de la compression de la mortalité aux grands âges, ère durant laquelle les décès au sein des personnes âgées tendent à se concentrer dans un intervalle d'âge progressivement plus court. En effet, depuis le début des années 1990 au Japon, l'âge modal au décès continue d'augmenter alors que le niveau d'hétérogénéité des durées de vie au-delà de cet âge demeure inchangé. Nous assistons ainsi à un déplacement de l'ensemble des durées de vie adultes vers des âges plus élevés, sans réduction parallèle de la dispersion de la mortalité aux grands âges. En France et au Canada, les femmes affichent aussi de tels développements depuis le début des années 2000, mais le scénario de compression de la mortalité aux grands âges est toujours en cours chez les hommes. Aux États-Unis, les résultats de la dernière décennie s'avèrent inquiétants car pour plusieurs années consécutives, l'âge modal au décès, soit la durée de vie la plus commune des adultes, a diminué de manière importante chez les deux sexes. Le second article s'inscrit dans une perspective géographique plus fine et révèle que les disparités provinciales en matière de mortalité adulte au Canada entre 1930 et 2007, bien décrites à l'aide de surfaces de mortalité lissées, sont importantes et méritent d'être suivies de près. Plus spécifiquement, sur la base des trajectoires temporelles de l'âge modal au décès et de l'écart type des âges au décès situés au-delà du mode, les différentiels de mortalité aux grands âges entre provinces ont à peine diminué durant cette période, et cela, malgré la baisse notable de la mortalité dans toutes les provinces depuis le début du XXe siècle. Également, nous constatons que ce sont précisément les femmes issues de provinces de l'Ouest et du centre du pays qui semblent avoir franchi l'ère de la compression de la mortalité aux grands âges au Canada. Dans le cadre du troisième et dernier article de cette thèse, nous étudions la longévité des adultes au XVIIIe siècle et apportons un nouvel éclairage sur la durée de vie la plus commune des adultes à cette époque. À la lumière de nos résultats, l'âge le plus commun au décès parmi les adultes canadiens-français a augmenté entre 1740-1754 et 1785-1799 au Québec ancien. En effet, l'âge modal au décès est passé d'environ 73 ans à près de 76 ans chez les femmes et d'environ 70 ans à 74 ans chez les hommes. Les conditions de vie particulières de la population canadienne-française à cette époque pourraient expliquer cet accroissement.

Les inégalités sociales dans la durée de vie la plus commune : la répartition des décès selon l'âge et le quintile de défavorisation au Québec en 2000-2002 et 2005-2007

Nous avons choisi de focaliser nos analyses sur les inégalités sociales de mortalité spécifiquement aux grands âges. Pour ce faire, l'utilisation de l'âge modal au décès combiné à la dispersion des décès au-delà de cet âge s'avère particulièrement adapté pour capter ces disparités puisque ces mesures ne sont pas tributaires de la mortalité prématurée. Ainsi, à partir de la distribution des âges au décès selon le niveau de défavorisation, au Québec au cours des périodes 2000-2002 et 2005-2007, nous avons déterminé l'âge le plus commun au décès et la dispersion des durées de vie au-delà de celui-ci. L'estimation de la distribution des décès selon l'âge et le niveau de défavorisation repose sur une approche non paramétrique de lissage par P-splines développée par Nadine Ouellette dans le cadre de sa thèse de doctorat. Nos résultats montrent que l'âge modal au décès ne permet pas de détecter des disparités dans la mortalité des femmes selon le niveau de défavorisation au Québec en 2000-2002 et en 2005-2007. Néanmoins, on assiste à un report de la mortalité vers des âges plus avancés alors que la compression de la mortalité semble s'être stabilisée. Pour les hommes, les inégalités sociales de mortalité sont particulièrement importantes entre le sous-groupe le plus favorisé et celui l'étant le moins. On constate un déplacement de la durée de vie la plus commune des hommes vers des âges plus élevés et ce, peu importe le niveau de défavorisation. Cependant, contrairement à leurs homologues féminins, le phénomène de compression de la mortalité semble toujours s'opérer.

Parâmetros e tendências da produção de leite em bubalinos da raça Murrah no Brasil

Objetivou-se estimar os parâmetros e avaliar as tendências genética e fenotípica para a produção de leite ajustada aos 305 dias em bubalinos da raça Murrah nascidos no período de 1982 a 2003. Os parâmetros e os valores genéticos foram estimados por meio do aplicativo MTDFREML. A tendência genética foi estimada pela regressão dos valores genéticos sobre o ano de nascimento, por duas metodologias: 1) regressão linear; 2) regressão por meio de polinômios articulados utilizando-se a função de alisamento spline. A herdabilidade e a repetibilidade estimadas foram de 0,20 e 0,36, respectivamente. As tendências (regressão linear) fenotípica e genética foram significativas e iguais a 32,86 e 0,85 kg/ano, respectivamente. O ganho genético foi positivo, constatando-se instabilidade na tendência genética no decorrer dos anos, com períodos de ganhos e outros de perdas genéticas. A maior parte do ganho observado em alguns períodos resultou de melhorias nas condições ambientais.

Clustering compositional data trajectories

Our essay aims at studying suitable statistical methods for the clustering ofcompositional data in situations where observations are constituted by trajectories ofcompositional data, that is, by sequences of composition measurements along a domain.Observed trajectories are known as “functional data” and several methods have beenproposed for their analysis.In particular, methods for clustering functional data, known as Functional ClusterAnalysis (FCA), have been applied by practitioners and scientists in many fields. To ourknowledge, FCA techniques have not been extended to cope with the problem ofclustering compositional data trajectories. In order to extend FCA techniques to theanalysis of compositional data, FCA clustering techniques have to be adapted by using asuitable compositional algebra.The present work centres on the following question: given a sample of compositionaldata trajectories, how can we formulate a segmentation procedure giving homogeneousclasses? To address this problem we follow the steps described below.First of all we adapt the well-known spline smoothing techniques in order to cope withthe smoothing of compositional data trajectories. In fact, an observed curve can bethought of as the sum of a smooth part plus some noise due to measurement errors.Spline smoothing techniques are used to isolate the smooth part of the trajectory:clustering algorithms are then applied to these smooth curves.The second step consists in building suitable metrics for measuring the dissimilaritybetween trajectories: we propose a metric that accounts for difference in both shape andlevel, and a metric accounting for differences in shape only.A simulation study is performed in order to evaluate the proposed methodologies, usingboth hierarchical and partitional clustering algorithm. The quality of the obtained resultsis assessed by means of several indices

Clustering compositional data trajectories

Our essay aims at studying suitable statistical methods for the clustering of compositional data in situations where observations are constituted by trajectories of compositional data, that is, by sequences of composition measurements along a domain. Observed trajectories are known as “functional data” and several methods have been proposed for their analysis. In particular, methods for clustering functional data, known as Functional Cluster Analysis (FCA), have been applied by practitioners and scientists in many fields. To our knowledge, FCA techniques have not been extended to cope with the problem of clustering compositional data trajectories. In order to extend FCA techniques to the analysis of compositional data, FCA clustering techniques have to be adapted by using a suitable compositional algebra. The present work centres on the following question: given a sample of compositional data trajectories, how can we formulate a segmentation procedure giving homogeneous classes? To address this problem we follow the steps described below. First of all we adapt the well-known spline smoothing techniques in order to cope with the smoothing of compositional data trajectories. In fact, an observed curve can be thought of as the sum of a smooth part plus some noise due to measurement errors. Spline smoothing techniques are used to isolate the smooth part of the trajectory: clustering algorithms are then applied to these smooth curves. The second step consists in building suitable metrics for measuring the dissimilarity between trajectories: we propose a metric that accounts for difference in both shape and level, and a metric accounting for differences in shape only. A simulation study is performed in order to evaluate the proposed methodologies, using both hierarchical and partitional clustering algorithm. The quality of the obtained results is assessed by means of several indices

A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL FOR CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTED LAG FUNCTIONS: ESTIMATING THE TIME COURSE OF HOSPITALIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURE

Numerous time series studies have provided strong evidence of an association between increased levels of ambient air pollution and increased levels of hospital admissions, typically at 0, 1, or 2 days after an air pollution episode. An important research aim is to extend existing statistical models so that a more detailed understanding of the time course of hospitalization after exposure to air pollution can be obtained. Information about this time course, combined with prior knowledge about biological mechanisms, could provide the basis for hypotheses concerning the mechanism by which air pollution causes disease. Previous studies have identified two important methodological questions: (1) How can we estimate the shape of the distributed lag between increased air pollution exposure and increased mortality or morbidity? and (2) How should we estimate the cumulative population health risk from short-term exposure to air pollution? Distributed lag models are appropriate tools for estimating air pollution health effects that may be spread over several days. However, estimation for distributed lag models in air pollution and health applications is hampered by the substantial noise in the data and the inherently weak signal that is the target of investigation. We introduce an hierarchical Bayesian distributed lag model that incorporates prior information about the time course of pollution effects and combines information across multiple locations. The model has a connection to penalized spline smoothing using a special type of penalty matrix. We apply the model to estimating the distributed lag between exposure to particulate matter air pollution and hospitalization for cardiovascular and respiratory disease using data from a large United States air pollution and hospitalization database of Medicare enrollees in 94 counties covering the years 1999-2002.

Adaptive T-spline refinement for isogeometric analysis in planar geometries

[EN]We present a new strategy, based on the meccano method [1, 2, 3], to construct a T-spline parameterization of 2D geometries for the application of isogeometric analysis. The proposed method only demands a boundary representation of the geometry as input data. The algorithm obtains, as a result, high quality parametric transformation between 2D objects and the parametric domain, the unit square. The key of the method lies in defining an isomorphic transformation between the parametric and physical T-mesh finding the optimal position of the interior nodes by applying a new T-mesh untangling and smoothing procedure. Bivariate T-spline representation is calculated by imposing the interpolation conditions on points sited both on the interior and on the boundary of the geometry…

Lower Extremities Magnetic Resonance Angiography With Blood Pressure Cuff Compression: Quantitative Dynamic Analysis

Purpose: To quantitatively evaluate changes induced by the application of a femoral blood-pressure cuff (BPC) on run-off magnetic resonance angiography (MRA). which is a method generally previously proposed to reduce venous contamination in the leg. Materials and Methods: This study was Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA)- and Institutional Review Board (IRB)-compliant, We used time-resolved gradient-echo gadolinium (Gd)-enhanced MRA to measure BPC effects on arterial, venous, and soft-tissue enhancement. Seven healthy volunteers (six men) were studied with the BPC applied at the mid-femoral level unilaterally using a 1.5T MR system after intravenous injection of Gd-BOPTA. Different statistical tools were used such as the Wilcoxon signed rank test and a cubic smoothing spline fit. Results: We found that BPC application induces delayed venous filling (as previously described), but also induces significant decreases in arterial inflow, arterial enhancement, vascular-soft tissue contrast, and delayed peak enhancement (which have not been previously measured). Conclusion: The potential benefits from using a BPC for run-off MRA must be balanced against the potential pitfalls, elucidated by our findings.

Analysis of functionally graded sandwich plate structures with piezoelectric skins, using B-spline finite strip method

Functionally graded materials are composite materials wherein the composition of the constituent phases can vary in a smooth continuous way with a gradation which is function of its spatial coordinates. This characteristic proves to be an important issue as it can minimize abrupt variations of the material properties which are usually responsible for localized high values of stresses, and simultaneously providing an effective thermal barrier in specific applications. In the present work, it is studied the static and free vibration behaviour of functionally graded sandwich plate type structures, using B-spline finite strip element models based on different shear deformation theories. The effective properties of functionally graded materials are estimated according to Mori-Tanaka homogenization scheme. These sandwich structures can also consider the existence of outer skins of piezoelectric materials, thus achieving them adaptive characteristics. The performance of the models, are illustrated through a set of test cases. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Book vs. Fair Value Accounting in Banking, and Intertemporal Smoothing

The aim of this paper is to examine the pros and cons of book and fair value accounting from the perspective of the theory of banking. We consider the implications of the two accounting methods in an overlapping generations environment. As observed by Allen and Gale(1997), in an overlapping generation model, banks have a role as intergenerational connectors as they allow for intertemporal smoothing. Our main result is that when dividends depend on profits, book value ex ante dominates fair value, as it provides better intertemporal smoothing. This is in contrast with the standard view that states that, fair value yields a better allocation as it reflects the real opportunity cost of assets. Banking regulation play an important role by providing the right incentives for banks to smooth intertemporal consumption whereas market discipline improves intratemporal efficiency.

Book vs. fair value accounting in banking and intertemporal smoothing

The aim of this paper is to examine the pros and cons of book and fair value accounting from the perspective of the theory of banking. We consider the implications of the two accounting methods in an overlapping generations environment. As observed by Allen and Gale(1997), in an overlapping generation model, banks have a role as intergenerational connectors as they allow for intertemporal smoothing. Our main result is that when dividends depend on profits, book value ex ante dominates fair value, as it provides better intertemporal smoothing. This is in contrast with the standard view that states that, fair value yields a better allocation as it reflects the real opportunity cost of assets. Banking regulation play an important role by providing the right incentives for banks to smooth intertemporal consumption whereas market discipline improves intratemporal efficiency.

Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence

There is a substantial literature which suggests that appraisals are smoothed and lag the true level of prices. This study combines a qualitative interview survey of the leading fund manager/owners in the UK and their appraisers with a empirical study of the number of appraisals which change each month within the IPD Monthly Index. The paper concentrates on how the appraisal process operates for commercial property performance measurement purposes. The survey interviews suggest that periodic appraisal services are consolidating in fewer firms and, within these major firms, appraisers adopt different approaches to changing appraisals on a period by period basis, with some wanting hard transaction evidence while others act on "softer' signals. The survey also indicates a seasonal effect with greater effort and information being applied to annual and quarterly appraisals than monthly. The analysis of the appraisals within the Investment Property Databank Monthly Index confirms this effect with around 5% more appraisals being moved at each quarter day than the other months. January and August have significantly less appraisal changes than other months.

Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence

There is a substantial literature which suggests that appraisals are smoothed and lag the true level of prices. This study combines a qualitative interview survey of the leading fund manager/owners in the UK and their appraisers with a empirical study of the number of appraisals which change each month within the IPD Monthly Index. The paper concentrates on how the appraisal process operates for commercial real estate performance measurement purposes. The survey interviews suggest that periodic appraisal services are consolidating in fewer firms and, within these major firms, appraisers adopt different approaches to changing appraisals on a period by period basis, with some wanting hard transaction evidence while others act on ‘softer’ signals. The survey also indicates a seasonal effect with greater effort and information being applied to annual and quarterly appraisals than monthly. The analysis of the appraisals within the IPD Monthly Index confirms this effect with around 5% more appraisals being moved at each quarter day than the other months. More November appraisals change than expected and this suggests that the increased information flows for the December end year appraisals are flowing through into earlier appraisals, especially as client/appraiser draft appraisal meetings for the December appraisals, a regular occurrence in the UK, can occur in November. January illustrates significantly less activity than other months, a seasonal effect after the exertions of the December appraisals.

Working-class household consumption smoothing in interwar Britain

We examine the strategies interwar working-class British households used to “smooth” consumption over time and guard against negative contingencies such as illness, unemployment, and death. Newly discovered returns from the U.K. Ministry of Labour's 1937/38 Household Expenditure Survey are used to fully categorize expenditure smoothing via nineteen credit/savings vehicles. We find that households made extensive use of expenditure-smoothing devices. Families' reliance on expenditure-smoothing is shown to be inversely related to household income, while households also used these mechanisms more intensively during expenditure crisis phases of the family life cycle, especially the years immediately after new household formation.

B-spline neural networks based PID controller for Hammerstein systems

A new PID tuning and controller approach is introduced for Hammerstein systems based on input/output data. A B-spline neural network is used to model the nonlinear static function in the Hammerstein system. The control signal is composed of a PID controller together with a correction term. In order to update the control signal, the multistep ahead predictions of the Hammerstein system based on the B-spline neural networks and the associated Jacobians matrix are calculated using the De Boor algorithms including both the functional and derivative recursions. A numerical example is utilized to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approaches.