Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Necessary and sufficient condition for generalized passivity, passification and application to multivariable adaptive systems

Recently, a generalized passivity concept for linear multivariable systems was obtained which allows circumventing the restrictiveness of the usual passivity concept. The latter is associated with the classical SPR (Strictly Positive Real) condition whereas the new concept of passivity is associated with the so called WSPR condition and its advantage in multivariable systems is that it does not require a restrictive symmetry condition of SPR systems. As a result, it allows the design of multivariable adaptive control that, unlike some existing factorization approaches, does not imply in additional overparameterization of the adaptive controller. In this paper, we complete a previously established WSPR sufficient condition and prove that it is also necessary. We also propose some methods of passification by either premultiplying the system output tracking error vector or the system input vector by an adequate passifying matrix multiplier, so that the resulting input/output transfer function becomes WSPR. The efficiency of our proposals are illustrated by simulation utilizing a well known robotics adaptive visual servoing problem. © 2011 IFAC.