Pair trading in Bovespa with a quantitative approach: cointegration, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck equation and Kelly criterion.

Pair trading is an old and well-known technique among traders. In this paper, we discuss an important element not commonly debated in Brazil: the cointegration between pairs, which would guarantee the spread stability. We run the Dickey-Fuller test to check cointegration, and then compare the results with non-cointegrated pairs. We found that the Sharpe ratio of cointegrated pairs is greater than the non-cointegrated. We also use the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck equation in order to calculate the half-life of the pairs. Again, this improves their performance. Last, we use the leverage suggested by Kelly Formula, once again improving the results.

Ornstein-Uhlenbeck operator in convex domains of Banach spaces

Studiamo l'operatore di Ornstein-Uhlenbeck e il semigruppo di Ornstein-Uhlenbeck in un sottoinsieme aperto convesso $\Omega$ di uno spazio di Banach separabile $X$ dotato di una misura Gaussiana centrata non degnere $\gamma$. In particolare dimostriamo la disuguaglianza di Sobolev logaritmica e la disuguaglianza di Poincaré, e grazie a queste disuguaglianze deduciamo le proprietà spettrali dell'operatore di Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. Inoltre studiamo l'equazione ellittica $\lambdau+L^{\Omega}u=f$ in $\Omega$, dove $L^\Omega$ è l'operatore di Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. Dimostriamo che per $\lambda>0$ e $f\in L^2(\Omega,\gamma)$ la soluzione debole $u$ appartiene allo spazio di Sobolev $W^{2,2}(\Omega,\gamma)$. Inoltre dimostriamo che $u$ soddisfa la condizione di Neumann nel senso di tracce al bordo di $\Omega$. Questo viene fatto finita approssimazione dimensionale.

Unusual eigenvalue spectrum and relaxation in the Levy-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

We consider the rates of relaxation of a particle in a harmonic well, subject to Levy noise characterized by its Levy index mu. Using the propagator for this Levy-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process (LOUP), we show that the eigenvalue spectrum of the associated Fokker-Planck operator has the form (n + m mu)nu where nu is the force constant characterizing the well, and n, m is an element of N. If mu is irrational, the eigenvalues are all nondegenerate, but rational mu can lead to degeneracy. The maximum degeneracy is shown to be 2. The left eigenfunctions of the fractional Fokker-Planck operator are very simple while the right eigenfunctions may be obtained from the lowest eigenfunction by a combination of two different step-up operators. Further, we find that the acceptable eigenfunctions should have the asymptotic behavior vertical bar x vertical bar(-n1-n2 mu) as vertical bar x vertical bar -> infinity, with n(1) and n(2) being positive integers, though this condition alone is not enough to identify them uniquely. We also assert that the rates of relaxation of LOUP are determined by the eigenvalues of the associated fractional Fokker-Planck operator and do not depend on the initial state if the moments of the initial distribution are all finite. If the initial distribution has fat tails, for which the higher moments diverge, one can have nonspectral relaxation, as pointed out by Toenjes et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 150602 (2013)].

The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck semigroup in exterior domains

Wood, Ian; Geissert, M.; Heck, H.; Hieber, M., (2005) 'The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck semigroup in exterior domains', Archiv der Mathematik 86 pp.554-562 RAE2008

A cautionary note on the use of Ornstein Uhlenbeck models in macroevolutionary studies

Phylogenetic comparative methods are increasingly used to give new insights into the dynamics of trait evolution in deep time. For continuous traits the core of these methods is a suite of models that attempt to capture evolutionary patterns by extending the Brownian constant variance model. However, the properties of these models are often poorly understood, which can lead to the misinterpretation of results. Here we focus on one of these models – the Ornstein Uhlenbeck (OU) model. We show that the OU model is frequently incorrectly favoured over simpler models when using Likelihood ratio tests, and that many studies fitting this model use datasets that are small and prone to this problem. We also show that very small amounts of error in datasets can have profound effects on the inferences derived from OU models. Our results suggest that simulating fitted models and comparing with empirical results is critical when fitting OU and other extensions of the Brownian model. We conclude by making recommendations for best practice in fitting OU models in phylogenetic comparative analyses, and for interpreting the parameters of the OU model.

Quasi-Likelihood Estimation for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Diffusion Observed at Random Time Points

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J60, 62M99.

A mean-reverting stochastic model for the political business cycle

In this article, we look at the political business cycle problem through the lens of uncertainty. The feedback control used by us is the famous NKPC with stochasticity and wage rigidities. We extend the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model to the continuous time stochastic set up with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We minimize relevant expected quadratic cost by solving the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. The basic intuition of the classical model is qualitatively carried forward in our set up but uncertainty also plays an important role in determining the optimal trajectory of the voter support function. The internal variability of the system acts as a base shifter for the support function in the risk neutral case. The role of uncertainty is even more prominent in the risk averse case where all the shape parameters are directly dependent on variability. Thus, in this case variability controls both the rates of change as well as the base shift parameters. To gain more insight we have also studied the model when the coefficients are time invariant and studied numerical solutions. The close relationship between the unemployment rate and the support function for the incumbent party is highlighted. The role of uncertainty in creating sampling fluctuation in this set up, possibly towards apparently anomalous results, is also explored.

Continuous stochastic processes

A general review of stochastic processes is given in the introduction; definitions, properties and a rough classification are presented together with the position and scope of the author's work as it fits into the general scheme.

The first section presents a brief summary of the pertinent analytical properties of continuous stochastic processes and their probability-theoretic foundations which are used in the sequel.

The remaining two sections (II and III), comprising the body of the work, are the author's contribution to the theory. It turns out that a very inclusive class of continuous stochastic processes are characterized by a fundamental partial differential equation and its adjoint (the Fokker-Planck equations). The coefficients appearing in those equations assimilate, in a most concise way, all the salient properties of the process, freed from boundary value considerations. The writer’s work consists in characterizing the processes through these coefficients without recourse to solving the partial differential equations.

First, a class of coefficients leading to a unique, continuous process is presented, and several facts are proven to show why this class is restricted. Then, in terms of the coefficients, the unconditional statistics are deduced, these being the mean, variance and covariance. The most general class of coefficients leading to the Gaussian distribution is deduced, and a complete characterization of these processes is presented. By specializing the coefficients, all the known stochastic processes may be readily studied, and some examples of these are presented; viz. the Einstein process, Bachelier process, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, etc. The calculations are effectively reduced down to ordinary first order differential equations, and in addition to giving a comprehensive characterization, the derivations are materially simplified over the solution to the original partial differential equations.

In the last section the properties of the integral process are presented. After an expository section on the definition, meaning, and importance of the integral process, a particular example is carried through starting from basic definition. This illustrates the fundamental properties, and an inherent paradox. Next the basic coefficients of the integral process are studied in terms of the original coefficients, and the integral process is uniquely characterized. It is shown that the integral process, with a slight modification, is a continuous Markoff process.

The elementary statistics of the integral process are deduced: means, variances, and covariances, in terms of the original coefficients. It is shown that an integral process is never temporally homogeneous in a non-degenerate process.

Finally, in terms of the original class of admissible coefficients, the statistics of the integral process are explicitly presented, and the integral process of all known continuous processes are specified.

Local kinetic interpretation of entropy production through reversed diffusion.

The time reversal of stochastic diffusion processes is revisited with emphasis on the physical meaning of the time-reversed drift and the noise prescription in the case of multiplicative noise. The local kinematics and mechanics of free diffusion are linked to the hydrodynamic description. These properties also provide an interpretation of the Pope-Ching formula for the steady-state probability density function along with a geometric interpretation of the fluctuation-dissipation relation. Finally, the statistics of the local entropy production rate of diffusion are discussed in the light of local diffusion properties, and a stochastic differential equation for entropy production is obtained using the Girsanov theorem for reversed diffusion. The results are illustrated for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

Random particle motion in magnetized plasma

A multivariate Fokker-Planck-type kinetic equation modeling a test - panicle weakly interacting with an electrostatic plasma. in the presence of a magnetic field B . is analytically solved in an Ornstein - Uhlenbeck - type approximation. A new set of analytic expressions are obtained for variable moments and panicle density as a function of time. The process is diffusive.