Bayesian L-optimal exact design of experiments for biological kinetic models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Design of experiments for bivariate binary responses modelled by Copula functions

Optimal design for generalized linear models has primarily focused on univariate data. Often experiments are performed that have multiple dependent responses described by regression type models, and it is of interest and of value to design the experiment for all these responses. This requires a multivariate distribution underlying a pre-chosen model for the data. Here, we consider the design of experiments for bivariate binary data which are dependent. We explore Copula functions which provide a rich and flexible class of structures to derive joint distributions for bivariate binary data. We present methods for deriving optimal experimental designs for dependent bivariate binary data using Copulas, and demonstrate that, by including the dependence between responses in the design process, more efficient parameter estimates are obtained than by the usual practice of simply designing for a single variable only. Further, we investigate the robustness of designs with respect to initial parameter estimates and Copula function, and also show the performance of compound criteria within this bivariate binary setting.

Optimum design of experiments for statistical inference

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Studies on abrasive jet machining through statistical design of experiments

The main objective of statistical analysis of experi- mental investigations is to make predictions on the basis of mathematical equations so as the number of experiments. Abrasive jet machining (AJM) is an unconventional and novel machining process wherein microabrasive particles are propelled at high veloc- ities on to a workpiece. The resulting erosion can be used for cutting, etching, cleaning, deburring, drilling and polishing. In the study completed by the authors, statistical design of experiments was successfully employed to predict the rate of material removal by AJM. This paper discusses the details of such an approach and the findings.

Optimal design of multiproduct batch chemical plant using NSGA-II

The optimal design of a multiproduct batch chemical plant is formulated as a multiobjective optimization problem, and the resulting constrained mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP) is solved by the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm approach (NSGA-II). By putting bounds on the objective function values, the constrained MINLP problem can be solved efficiently by NSGA-II to generate a set of feasible nondominated solutions in the range desired by the decision-maker in a single run of the algorithm. The evolution of the entire set of nondominated solutions helps the decision-maker to make a better choice of the appropriate design from among several alternatives. The large set of solutions also provides a rich source of excellent initial guesses for solution of the same problem by alternative approaches to achieve any specific target for the objective functions

Exploring use of climate information for optimal design of water resources infrastructure

We conducted surveys of fire and fuels managers at local, regional, and national levels to gain insights into decision processes and information flows in wildfire management. Survey results in the form of fire managers’ decision calendars show how climate information needs vary seasonally, over space, and through the organizational network, and help determine optimal points for introducing climate information and forecasts into decision processes. We identified opportunities to use climate information in fire management, including seasonal to interannual climate forecasts at all organizational levels, to improve the targeting of fuels treatments and prescribed burns, the positioning and movement of initial attack resources, and staffing and budgeting decisions. Longer-term (5–10 years) outlooks also could be useful at the national level in setting budget and research priorities. We discuss these opportunities and examine the kinds of organizational changes that could facilitate effective use of existing climate information and climate forecast capabilities.

Conservative Failure Criteria for Optimal Design of Composite Structures Including Effect of Shear Loading

A minimum weight design of laminated composite structures is carried out for different loading conditions and failure criteria using genetic algorithm. The phenomenological maximum stress (MS) and Tsai-Wu (TW) criteria and the micro-mechanism-based failure mechanism based (FMB) failure criteria are considered. A new failure envelope called the Most Conservative Failure Envelope (MCFE) is proposed by combining the three failure envelopes based on the lowest absolute values of the strengths predicted. The effect of shear loading on the MCFE is investigated. The interaction between the loading conditions, failure criteria, and strength-based optimal design is brought out.

Optimal design of timer-based, distributed selection with unknown number of nodes

The timer-based selection scheme is a popular, simple, and distributed scheme that is used to select the best node from a set of available nodes. In it, each node sets a timer as a function of a local preference number called a metric, and transmits a packet when its timer expires. The scheme ensures that the timer of the best node, which has the highest metric, expires first. However, it fails to select the best node if another node transmits a packet within Delta s of the transmission by the best node. We derive the optimal timer mapping that maximizes the average success probability for the practical scenario in which the number of nodes in the system is unknown but only its probability distribution is known. We show that it has a special discrete structure, and present a recursive characterization to determine it. We benchmark its performance with ad hoc approaches proposed in the literature, and show that it delivers significant gains. New insights about the optimality of some ad hoc approaches are also developed.

Optimal design of building structures using genetic algorithms

A general framework for multi-criteria optimal design is presented which is well-suited for automated design of structural systems. A systematic computer-aided optimal design decision process is developed which allows the designer to rapidly evaluate and improve a proposed design by taking into account the major factors of interest related to different aspects such as design, construction, and operation.

The proposed optimal design process requires the selection of the most promising choice of design parameters taken from a large design space, based on an evaluation using specified criteria. The design parameters specify a particular design, and so they relate to member sizes, structural configuration, etc. The evaluation of the design uses performance parameters which may include structural response parameters, risks due to uncertain loads and modeling errors, construction and operating costs, etc. Preference functions are used to implement the design criteria in a "soft" form. These preference functions give a measure of the degree of satisfaction of each design criterion. The overall evaluation measure for a design is built up from the individual measures for each criterion through a preference combination rule. The goal of the optimal design process is to obtain a design that has the highest overall evaluation measure - an optimization problem.

Genetic algorithms are stochastic optimization methods that are based on evolutionary theory. They provide the exploration power necessary to explore high-dimensional search spaces to seek these optimal solutions. Two special genetic algorithms, hGA and vGA, are presented here for continuous and discrete optimization problems, respectively.

The methodology is demonstrated with several examples involving the design of truss and frame systems. These examples are solved by using the proposed hGA and vGA.