A practical guide for operational validation of discrete simulation models

As the number of simulation experiments increases, the necessity for validation and verification of these models demands special attention on the part of the simulation practitioners. By analyzing the current scientific literature, it is observed that the operational validation description presented in many papers does not agree on the importance designated to this process and about its applied techniques, subjective or objective. With the expectation of orienting professionals, researchers and students in simulation, this article aims to elaborate a practical guide through the compilation of statistical techniques in the operational validation of discrete simulation models. Finally, the guide's applicability was evaluated by using two study objects, which represent two manufacturing cells, one from the automobile industry and the other from a Brazilian tech company. For each application, the guide identified distinct steps, due to the different aspects that characterize the analyzed distributions. © 2011 Brazilian Operations Research Society.

Schizophrenic delusions: a phenomenological approach.

The issue of specificity of delusions in schizophrenia is still a matter of debate. The authors analyze the delusion formation in schizophrenia from a prototypical, phenomenological point of view, focusing on the subject's experience. This perspective links delusion formation to the autistic predisposition, which is considered here as the elementary phenotypic expression of the vulnerability to schizophrenia. Autism is viewed as a defective preconceptual (i.e., before language) attunement to the world. It impedes the individual's sharing of "common sense" with others and impairs the ability to project into the future. The development of delusions is illustrated, in part, by Klaus Conrad's work on the onset of paranoid schizophrenia. Delusions are viewed as transformations of the structure of experiencing. When threatened in future ability to be, the autistic, vulnerable person looks for the clues to becoming by attributing significance to disparate elements of the environment, which become self-referential. The link established between these disparate elements is based on universal characteristics that give the schizophrenic delusion a metaphysical quality. The transitivistic experience in delusions of control and omnipotence points to a specific way of crossing the border between "mine" and "yours" (disturbances of the experiencing "I"). What strikes a clinician in these delusions is that the normally tacit link between the sense of being and the sense of acting becomes quite apparent. The authors also propose a specificity in the themes of schizophrenic delusions. Delusions acquire a schizophrenic quality when ontological (i.e., universal) elements of the discourse between the locutor and the Other dominate at the expense of the worldly elements. It is emphasized that delusional content and form are dialectically related and hardly distinguishable. The authors consider the delusion formation as a phenomenon of emergence, a situation in which a new qualitative order arises from the reorganization of essentially unchanged elements. To consider schizophrenia as an emergent, particular way of experiencing, related to the autistic defect, has important consequences for research and for treatment. A dialectic exchange is needed between prototypical models generated by phenomenological inquiry and empirical, operational validation of testable aspects of such models.

Evolving a core Banking enterprise architecture: leveraging business events exploitation

Business information has become a critical asset for companies and it has even more value when obtained and exploited in real time. This paper analyses how to integrate this information into an existing banking Enterprise Architecture, following an event-driven approach, and entails the study of three main issues: the definition of business events, the specification of a reference architecture, which identifies the specific integration points, and the description of a governance approach to manage the new elements. All the proposed solutions have been validated with a proof-of-concept test bed in an open source environment. It is based on a case study of the banking sector that allows an operational validation to be carried out, as well as ensuring compliance with non-functional requirements. We have focused these requirements on performance.

Validation of improved TAMANN neural network for operational satellite-derived rainfall estimation in Africa

Real-time rainfall monitoring in Africa is of great practical importance for operational applications in hydrology and agriculture. Satellite data have been used in this context for many years because of the lack of surface observations. This paper describes an improved artificial neural network algorithm for operational applications. The algorithm combines numerical weather model information with the satellite data. Using this algorithm, daily rainfall estimates were derived for 4 yr of the Ethiopian and Zambian main rainy seasons and were compared with two other algorithms-a multiple linear regression making use of the same information as that of the neural network and a satellite-only method. All algorithms were validated against rain gauge data. Overall, the neural network performs best, but the extent to which it does so depends on the calibration/validation protocol. The advantages of the neural network are most evident when calibration data are numerous and close in space and time to the validation data. This result emphasizes the importance of a real-time calibration system.

The potential of 1 h refractivity changes from an operational C-band magnetron-based radar for numerical weather prediction validation and data assimilation

Refractivity changes (ΔN) derived from radar ground clutter returns serve as a proxy for near-surface humidity changes (1 N unit ≡ 1% relative humidity at 20 °C). Previous studies have indicated that better humidity observations should improve forecasts of convection initiation. A preliminary assessment of the potential of refractivity retrievals from an operational magnetron-based C-band radar is presented. The increased phase noise at shorter wavelengths, exacerbated by the unknown position of the target within the 300 m gate, make it difficult to obtain absolute refractivity values, so we consider the information in 1 h changes. These have been derived to a range of 30 km with a spatial resolution of ∼4 km; the consistency of the individual estimates (within each 4 km × 4 km area) indicates that ΔN errors are about 1 N unit, in agreement with in situ observations. Measurements from an instrumented tower on summer days show that the 1 h refractivity changes up to a height of 100 m remain well correlated with near-surface values. The analysis of refractivity as represented in the operational Met Office Unified Model at 1.5, 4 and 12 km grid lengths demonstrates that, as model resolution increases, the spatial scales of the refractivity structures improve. It is shown that the magnitude of refractivity changes is progressively underestimated at larger grid lengths during summer. However, the daily time series of 1 h refractivity changes reveal that, whereas the radar-derived values are very well correlated with the in situ observations, the high-resolution model runs have little skill in getting the right values of ΔN in the right place at the right time. This suggests that the assimilation of these radar refractivity observations could benefit forecasts of the initiation of convection.

Content Validation of the Operational Definitions of the Nursing Diagnoses of Activity Intolerance, Excess Fluid Volume, and Decreased Cardiac Output in Patients With Heart Failure

Objectives To consensually validate the operational definitions of the nursing diagnoses activity intolerance, excessive fluid volume, and decreased cardiac output in patients with decompensated heart failure. Method Consensual validation was performed in two stages: analogy by similarity of defining characteristics, and development of operational definitions and validation with experts. Results A total of 38 defining characteristics were found. Operational definitions were developed and content-validated. One hundred percent of agreement was achieved among the seven experts after five rounds. Ascites was added in the nursing diagnosis excessive fluid volume. Conclusion The consensual validation improves interpretation of human response, grounding the selection of nursing interventions and contributing to improved nursing outcomes. Implications for Practice Support the assessment of patients with decompensated heart failure. Objetivos Realizar a validacAo consensual das definicoes operacionais dos diagnosticos de enfermagem Intolerancia a atividade, Volume de liquidos excessivo e Debito cardiaco diminuido em pacientes com insuficiencia cardiaca descompensada. Metodo ValidacAo consensual em duas etapas: Analogia de semelhanca das caracteristicas definidoras e desenvolvimento de definicoes operacionais e validacAo com expertst. Resultados Foram encontradas 38 caracteristicas definidoras para os diagnosticos de enfermagem. Suas definicoes operacionais foram desenvolvidas e seu conteudo validado. Os resultados mostram que houve 100% de concordancia entre os sete experts apos cinco rodada. As definicoes operacionais foram classificadas com base no nivel de concordanica. Ascite foi acrescentada ao diagnostico Volume de liquidos excessivo. ConclusAo A validacAo consensual melhora a interpretacAo das respostas humanas, embasando a selecAo de intervencoes de enfermagem e contribuindo para melhorar os resultados. Implicacoes Para A Pratica Apoio a avaliacAo dos pacientes com insuficiencia cardiaca descompensada.

Implementation and Operational Research: Risk Charts to Guide Targeted HIV-1 Viral Load Monitoring of ART: Development and Validation in Patients From Resource-Limited Settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20%, or 40% of patients in 7 cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cutoffs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia, and the Asia-Pacific. RESULTS In total, 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African cohort, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian cohort, and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohort. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia, and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia, and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia-Pacific. CONCLUSIONS CD4-based risk charts with optimal cutoffs for targeted VL testing maybe useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Optimization and validation of a LIBS method for the determination of macro and micronutrients in sugar cane leaves

Laser induced breakdown spectrometry (LIBS) was applied for the determination of macro (P, K, Ca, Mg) and micronutrients (B, Cu, Fe, Mn and Zn) in sugar cane leaves, which is one of the most economically important crops in Brazil. Operational conditions were previously optimized by a neuro-genetic approach, by using a laser Nd:YAG at 1064 nm with 110 mJ per pulse focused on a pellet surface prepared with ground plant samples. Emission intensities were measured after 2.0 mu s delay time, with 4.5 mu s integration time gate and 25 accumulated laser pulses. Measurements of LIBS spectra were based on triplicate and each replicate consisted of an average of ten spectra collected in different sites (craters) of the pellet. Quantitative determinations were carried out by using univariate calibration and chemometric methods, such as PLSR and iPLS. The calibration models were obtained by using 26 laboratory samples and the validation was carried out by using 15 test samples. For comparative purpose, these samples were also microwave-assisted digested and further analyzed by ICP OES. In general, most results obtained by LIBS did not differ significantly from ICP OES data by applying a t-test at 95% confidence level. Both LIBS multivariate and univariate calibration methods produced similar results, except for Fe where better results were achieved by the multivariate approach. Repeatability precision varied from 0.7 to 15% and 1.3 to 20% from measurements obtained by multivariate and univariate calibration, respectively. It is demonstrated that LIBS is a powerful tool for analysis of pellets of plant materials for determination of macro and micronutrients by choosing calibration and validation samples with similar matrix composition.

Validation of psychosocial scales for physical activity in university students

OBJECTIVE Translate the Patient-centered Assessment and Counseling for Exercise questionnaire, adapt it cross-culturally and identify the psychometric properties of the psychosocial scales for physical activity in young university students.METHODS The Patient-centered Assessment and Counseling for Exercise questionnaire is made up of 39 items divided into constructs based on the social cognitive theory and the transtheoretical model. The analyzed constructs were, as follows: behavior change strategy (15 items), decision-making process (10), self-efficacy (6), support from family (4), and support from friends (4). The validation procedures were conceptual, semantic, operational, and functional equivalences, in addition to the equivalence of the items and of measurements. The conceptual, of items and semantic equivalences were performed by a specialized committee. During measurement equivalence, the instrument was applied to 717 university students. Exploratory factor analysis was used to verify the loading of each item, explained variance and internal consistency of the constructs. Reproducibility was measured by means of intraclass correlation coefficient.RESULTS The two translations were equivalent and back-translation was similar to the original version, with few adaptations. The layout, presentation order of the constructs and items from the original version were kept in the same form as the original instrument. The sample size was adequate and was evaluated by the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test, with values between 0.72 and 0.91. The correlation matrix of the items presented r < 0.8 (p < 0.05). The factor loadings of the items from all the constructs were satisfactory (> 0.40), varying between 0.43 and 0.80, which explained between 45.4% and 59.0% of the variance. Internal consistency was satisfactory (α ≥ 0.70), with support from friends being 0.70 and 0.92 for self-efficacy. Most items (74.3%) presented values above 0.70 for the reproducibility test.CONCLUSIONS The validation process steps were considered satisfactory and adequate for applying to the population.

Characterisation of neutron spectra in mixed high energy fields in lineal accelerators: response functions validation

Actualment, la resposta de la majoria d’instrumentació operacional i dels dosímetres personals utilitzats en radioprotecció per a la dosimetria neutrònica és altament dependent de l’energia dels espectres neutrònics a analitzar, especialment amb camps neutrònics amb una important component intermitja. En conseqüència, la interpretació de les lectures d’aquests aparells es complicada si no es té un coneixement previ de la distribució espectral de la fluència neutrònica en els punts d’interès. El Grup de Física de les Radiacions de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (GFR-UAB) ha desenvolupat en els últims anys un espectròmetre de neutrons basat en un Sistema d’Esferes Bonner (BSS) amb un contador proporcional d’3He com a detector actiu. Els principals avantatges dels espectròmetres de neutrons per BSS són: la seva resposta isotròpica, la possibilitat de discriminar la component neutrònica de la gamma en camps mixtos, i la seva alta sensibilitat neutrònica als nivells de dosi analitzats. Amb aquestes característiques, els espectròmetres neutrònics per BSS compleixen amb els estándards de les últimes recomanacions de la ICRP i poden ser utilitzats també en el camp de la dosimetria neutrònica per a la mesura de dosis en el rang d’energia que va dels tèrmics fins als 20 MeV, en nou ordres de magnitud. En el marc de la col•laboració entre el GFR - UAB i el Laboratorio Nazionale di Frascati – Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (LNF-INFN), ha tingut lloc una experiència comparativa d’espectrometria per BSS amb els feixos quasi monoenergètics de 2.5 MeV i 14 MeV del Fast Neutron Generator de l’ENEA. En l’exercici s’ha determinat l’espectre neutrònic a diferents distàncies del blanc de l’accelerador, aprofitant el codi FRUIT recentment desenvolupat pel grup LNF. Els resultats obtinguts mostren una bona coherència entre els dos espectròmetres i les dades mesurades i simulades.

The systematic profiling of false identity documents: method validation and performance evaluation using seizures known to originate from common and different sources

False identity documents constitute a potential powerful source of forensic intelligence because they are essential elements of transnational crime and provide cover for organized crime. In previous work, a systematic profiling method using false documents' visual features has been built within a forensic intelligence model. In the current study, the comparison process and metrics lying at the heart of this profiling method are described and evaluated. This evaluation takes advantage of 347 false identity documents of four different types seized in two countries whose sources were known to be common or different (following police investigations and dismantling of counterfeit factories). Intra-source and inter-sources variations were evaluated through the computation of more than 7500 similarity scores. The profiling method could thus be validated and its performance assessed using two complementary approaches to measuring type I and type II error rates: a binary classification and the computation of likelihood ratios. Very low error rates were measured across the four document types, demonstrating the validity and robustness of the method to link documents to a common source or to differentiate them. These results pave the way for an operational implementation of a systematic profiling process integrated in a developed forensic intelligence model.

Development of a systematic computer vision-based method to analyse and compare images of false identity documents for forensic intelligence purposes-Part I: acquisition, calibration and validation issues

Following their detection and seizure by police and border guard authorities, false identity and travel documents are usually scanned, producing digital images. This research investigates the potential of these images to classify false identity documents, highlight links between documents produced by a same modus operandi or same source, and thus support forensic intelligence efforts. Inspired by previous research work about digital images of Ecstasy tablets, a systematic and complete method has been developed to acquire, collect, process and compare images of false identity documents. This first part of the article highlights the critical steps of the method and the development of a prototype that processes regions of interest extracted from images. Acquisition conditions have been fine-tuned in order to optimise reproducibility and comparability of images. Different filters and comparison metrics have been evaluated and the performance of the method has been assessed using two calibration and validation sets of documents, made up of 101 Italian driving licenses and 96 Portuguese passports seized in Switzerland, among which some were known to come from common sources. Results indicate that the use of Hue and Edge filters or their combination to extract profiles from images, and then the comparison of profiles with a Canberra distance-based metric provides the most accurate classification of documents. The method appears also to be quick, efficient and inexpensive. It can be easily operated from remote locations and shared amongst different organisations, which makes it very convenient for future operational applications. The method could serve as a first fast triage method that may help target more resource-intensive profiling methods (based on a visual, physical or chemical examination of documents for instance). Its contribution to forensic intelligence and its application to several sets of false identity documents seized by police and border guards will be developed in a forthcoming article (part II).

APROS model validation in case of fast transients in a boiling water reactor

This Master´s thesis investigates the performance of the Olkiluoto 1 and 2 APROS model in case of fast transients. The thesis includes a general description of the Olkiluoto 1 and 2 nuclear power plants and of the most important safety systems. The theoretical background of the APROS code as well as the scope and the content of the Olkiluoto 1 and 2 APROS model are also described. The event sequences of the anticipated operation transients considered in the thesis are presented in detail as they will form the basis for the analysis of the APROS calculation results. The calculated fast operational transient situations comprise loss-of-load cases and two cases related to a inadvertent closure of one main steam isolation valve. As part of the thesis work, the inaccurate initial data values found in the original 1-D reactor core model were corrected. The input data needed for the creation of a more accurate 3-D core model were defined. The analysis of the APROS calculation results showed that while the main results were in good accordance with the measured plant data, also differences were detected. These differences were found to be caused by deficiencies and uncertainties related to the calculation model. According to the results the reactor core and the feedwater systems cause most of the differences between the calculated and measured values. Based on these findings, it will be possible to develop the APROS model further to make it a reliable and accurate tool for the analysis of the operational transients and possible plant modifications.

Validation d’une situation de stimulation suscitant des comportements stéréotypés et des intérêts restreints chez le jeune enfant autiste

Les comportements stéréotypés et les intérêts restreints sont des comportements à valeur diagnostique dans l’autisme. Pourtant, il y a des lacunes en clinique, dans la façon de détecter ces comportements, considérant l’absence d’instruments standardisés les suscitant et en recherche, dans la façon de documenter ces comportements pour arriver à les définir de façon opérationnelle. Cette thèse a pour objectif de mieux documenter, par une situation d’observation, les comportements stéréotypés et les intérêts restreints en bas âge dans l’autisme, et de permettre l’utilisation de cette situation en clinique. Deux étapes préliminaires ont permis de documenter les comportements stéréotypés et les intérêts restreints en bas âge dans l’autisme. La première, l’élaboration d’un questionnaire sur les comportements stéréotypés et les intérêts restreints et les objets qui les déclenchent complété par des experts dans le domaine. Ce questionnaire a permis de construire la grille de cotation et la situation de stimulation. La seconde la construction d’une grille de cotation qui apporte une définition opérationnelle des comportements stéréotypés et des intérêts restreints en bas âge dans l’autisme et vise à les colliger. L’étape principale de la présente recherche consiste en l’élaboration d’une situation de stimulation suscitant des comportements stéréotypés et des intérêts restreints par l’exposition à des objets qui les déclenchent. Cette situation a permis de documenter, par observation, les comportements stéréotypés et les intérêts restreints en bas âge dans l’autisme. La validation de la situation de stimulation a été appliquée auprès de deux groupes d’enfants âgés de 24 à 72 mois appariés en âge chronologique, 21 enfants portant un diagnostic d’autisme et 24 enfants au développement typique Les résultats montrent que la situation de stimulation est un instrument suffisamment sensible pour détecter des comportements stéréotypés et des intérêts restreints en bas âge dans l’autisme et d’identifier des objets d’intérêt. En effet, lors de l’exposition à la situation de stimulation, les enfants autistes se distinguent des enfants typiques sur la base du nombre et de la durée des comportements stéréotypés et des intérêts restreints qu’ils présentent. Les enfants autistes montrent une fréquence significativement plus élevé pour les CSIR suivants: maniérismes des mains et des doigts, crispation des doigts, sautillement, doigts dans la bouche, objets dans la bouche, exploration visuelle: regard rapproché, met les objets en mouvement non circulaire. Les enfants autistes se distinguent également des enfants typiques sur la base de l’exploration des objets, en fréquence et en durée, significativement, pour les objets: Bateau: marteau et balles et lettres et chiffres. Cette étude est la première qui passe par un protocole d’observation systématique, pour documenter les comportements stéréotypés et les intérêts restreints, ainsi que les objets qui les déclenchent, des objets d’intérêt, en bas âge dans l’autisme. Cette situation pourrait ultimement faire partie du processus d’évaluation diagnostique ou de dépistage de l’autisme permettant d’identifier en bas âge des enfants autistes ou à risque d’autisme.