Bayesian versus frequentist statistical inference for investi gating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department

Background The problem of silent multiple comparisons is one of the most difficult statistical problems faced by scientists. It is a particular problem for investigating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department because any one of hundreds, or possibly thousands, of neighbourhoods, schools, or workplaces could have reported a cluster, which could have been for any one of several types of cancer or any one of several time periods. Methods This paper contrasts the frequentist approach with a Bayesian approach for dealing with silent multiple comparisons in the context of a one-off cluster reported to a health department. Two published cluster investigations were re-analysed using the Dunn-Sidak method to adjust frequentist p-values and confidence intervals for silent multiple comparisons. Bayesian methods were based on the Gamma distribution. Results Bayesian analysis with non-informative priors produced results similar to the frequentist analysis, and suggested that both clusters represented a statistical excess. In the frequentist framework, the statistical significance of both clusters was extremely sensitive to the number of silent multiple comparisons, which can only ever be a subjective "guesstimate". The Bayesian approach is also subjective: whether there is an apparent statistical excess depends on the specified prior. Conclusion In cluster investigations, the frequentist approach is just as subjective as the Bayesian approach, but the Bayesian approach is less ambitious in that it treats the analysis as a synthesis of data and personal judgements (possibly poor ones), rather than objective reality. Bayesian analysis is (arguably) a useful tool to support complicated decision-making, because it makes the uncertainty associated with silent multiple comparisons explicit.

Sodium 2-nitrocinnamate dihydrate: a one-dimensional hydrogen-bonded coordination polymer

The title compound catena-poly[aqua-mu3-2-nitrocinnamato], [Na(C9H6NO4)(H2O)2]n, the sodium salt of trans-2-nitrocinnamic acid, is a one-dimensional coordination polymer based on six-coordinate octahedral NaO6 centres comprising three facially-related monodentate carboxylate O-atom donors from separate ligands (all bridging)[Na-O, 2.4370(13)-2.5046(13)A] and three water molecules (two bridging, one monodentate) [Na-O, 2.3782(13)-2.4404(17)A]. The structure is also stabilized by intra-chain water-O-H...O(carboxylate) and O-H...O(nitro) hydrogen bonds.

Zero- one- and two-dimensional hydrogen-bonded structures in the 1:1 proton-transfer compounds of 4,5-dichlorophthalic acid with the monocyclic heteroaromatic Lewis bases 2-aminopyrimidine, nicotinamide and isonicotinamide

The structures of the anhydrous 1:1 proton-transfer compounds of 4,5-dichlorophthalic acid (DCPA) with the monocyclic heteroaromatic Lewis bases 2-aminopyrimidine, 3-(aminocarboxy) pyridine (nicotinamide) and 4-(aminocarbonyl) pyridine (isonicotinamide), namely 2-aminopyrimidinium 2-carboxy-4,5-dichlorobenzoate C4H6N3+ C8H3Cl2O4- (I), 3-(aminocarbonyl) pyridinium 2-carboxy-4,5-dichlorobenzoate C6H7N2O+ C8H3Cl2O4- (II) and the unusual salt adduct 4-(aminocarbonyl) pyridinium 2-carboxy-4,5-dichlorobenzoate 2-carboxymethyl-4,5-dichlorobenzoic acid (1/1/1) C6H7N2O+ C8H3Cl2O4-.C9H6Cl2O4 (III) have been determined at 130 K. Compound (I) forms discrete centrosymmetric hydrogen-bonded cyclic bis(cation--anion) units having both R2/2(8) and R2/1(4) N-H...O interactions. In compound (II) the primary N-H...O linked cation--anion units are extended into a two-dimensional sheet structure via amide-carboxyl and amide-carbonyl N-H...O interactions. The structure of (III) reveals the presence of an unusual and unexpected self-synthesized methyl monoester of the acid as an adduct molecule giving one-dimensional hydrogen-bonded chains. In all three structures the hydrogen phthalate anions are

Knowing a donor and identifying as one : determinants of people's willingness for related and anonymous living donation in Australia

While LRD (living donation to a genetically/emotionally related recipient) is well established in Australia, LAD (living anonymous donation to a stranger) is rare. Given the increasing use of LAD overseas, Australia may likely follow suit. Understanding the determinants of people’s willingness for LAD is essential but infrequently studied in Australia. Consequently, we compared the determinants of people’s LRD and LAD willingness, and assessed whether these determinants differed according to type of living donation. We surveyed 487 health students about their LRD and LAD willingness, attitudes, identity, prior experience with blood and organ donation, deceased donation preference, and demographics. We used Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to identify the determinants of willingness for LRD and LAD and paired sample t-tests to examine differences in LRD and LAD attitudes, identity, and willingness. Mean differences in willingness (LRD 5.93, LAD 3.92), attitudes (LRD 6.43, LAD 5.53), and identity (LRD 5.69, LAD 3.58) were statistically significant. Revised SEM models provided a good fit to the data (LRD: x2 (41) = 67.67, p = 0.005, CFI = 0.96, RMSEA = 0.04; LAD: x2 (40) = 79.64, p < 0.001, CFI = 0.95, RMSEA = 0.05) and explained 45% and 54% of the variation in LRD and LAD willingness, respectively. Four common determinants of LRD and LAD willingness emerged: identity, attitude, past blood donation, and knowing a deceased donor. Religious affiliation and deceased donation preference predicted LAD willingness also. Identifying similarities and differences in these determinants can inform future efforts aimed at understanding people’s LRD and LAD willingness and the evaluation of potential living donor motives. Notably, this study highlights the importance of people’s identification as a living donor as a motive underlying their willingness to donate their organs while living.

One size doesn't fit all. Exploring marketing strategies for influencing three dimensions of brand loyalty

Brand loyalty is a concept that has garnered considerable interest over recent years from both marketing practitioners and academics alike. While marketers are primarily interested in ways they can generate and increase brand loyalty from their customers, academics strive to conducts research which investigates the antecedents and consequences of customer loyalty (See DeWitt, Nguyen and Marshall 2008; Russell-Bennett, McColl-Kennedy and Coote 2007).

Efficient one-round key exchange in the standard model

We consider one-round key exchange protocols secure in the standard model. The security analysis uses the powerful security model of Canetti and Krawczyk and a natural extension of it to the ID-based setting. It is shown how KEMs can be used in a generic way to obtain two different protocol designs with progressively stronger security guarantees. A detailed analysis of the performance of the protocols is included; surprisingly, when instantiated with specific KEM constructions, the resulting protocols are competitive with the best previous schemes that have proofs only in the random oracle model.

Efficient one-round key exchange in the efficient one-round key exchange in the standard model

We consider one-round key exchange protocols secure in the standard model. The security analysis uses the powerful security model of Canetti and Krawczyk and a natural extension of it to the ID-based setting. It is shown how KEMs can be used in a generic way to obtain two different protocol designs with progressively stronger security guarantees. A detailed analysis of the performance of the protocols is included; surprisingly, when instantiated with specific KEM constructions, the resulting protocols are competitive with the best previous schemes that have proofs only in the random oracle model.

Efficient one-round key exchange in the standard model

We consider one-round key exchange protocols secure in the standard model. The security analysis uses the powerful security model of Canetti and Krawczyk and a natural extension of it to the ID-based setting. It is shown how KEMs can be used in a generic way to obtain two different protocol designs with progressively stronger security guarantees. A detailed analysis of the performance of the protocols is included; surprisingly, when instantiated with specific KEM constructions, the resulting protocols are competitive with the best previous schemes that have proofs only in the random oracle model.

One small difference after another : stories of grassroots leaders

Grassroots groups – autonomous, not-for-profit groups made up of volunteers – and grassroots initiatives play an invaluable, yet often invisible, role in our communities. The informal processes and collective efforts of grassroots associations, social movements, self-help groups and local action collectives are central to civil society and community building. Grassroots leaders are critical to such initiatives, yet little is known about their influences, motivations, successes and challenges. This study aims to address this dearth in the research literature by noting the experiences of a sample of grassroots community leaders to help gain a greater knowledge about community leadership in action. In-depth semi-structured interviews were held with nine grassroots leaders from a broad cross-section of sectors of interest. The criteria for selection were that these leaders were not in a formal non-profit organisation, were not paid for their work yet were leading grassroots groups or initiatives involved in active community building, campaigning or self-help. The paper reflects on findings in regard to the formative experiences that impacted upon the community leaders’ direction in life, their beliefs and ideas about what it means to be a leader, the strategies they use to lead and challenges they continue to face, and the role of learning and support in maintaining and developing their roles. Finally, the key themes relating to grassroots leadership and how these leaders enhance their own effectiveness and resilience are explored.

"And one fine morning" : Gatsby, Obama, and the resurection of hope

Hope is a word that has re-emerged in light of Obama's stunning win in the United States election. In this time of economic gloom and the reality of bleak recession and unprecedented job losses the United States has embraced the hopeful message of Barack Obama. For many years 'hope' has been a word that has been lost, forgotten , and banished to the margins of romantic longing and wishful thinking. Hope is also a word that has been much discussed in relation to the iconic The Great Gatsby but usually in a negative fashion to demonstrate the unattainability of the American dream. Marcella Taylor called Gatsby "the unfinished American Epic" which focused on the "passing of the last utopian frontier" and suggested the significance of this passing on American society as a whole. In the last months, however, hope has made a return and one gets the feeling that Fitzgerald's words "but that's no matter-to-morrow we will run faster, stretch out our arms farther . . . And one fine morning' are once again being heard.