Occupant location prediction in smart buildings using association rule mining

Heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) systems are significant consumers of energy, however building management systems do not typically operate them in accordance with occupant movements. Due to the delayed response of HVAC systems, prediction of occupant locations is necessary to maximize energy efficiency. We present an approach to occupant location prediction based on association rule mining, allowing prediction based on historical occupant locations. Association rule mining is a machine learning technique designed to find any correlations which exist in a given dataset. Occupant location datasets have a number of properties which differentiate them from the market basket datasets that association rule mining was originally designed for. This thesis adapts the approach to suit such datasets, focusing the rule mining process on patterns which are useful for location prediction. This approach, named OccApriori, allows for the prediction of occupants’ next locations as well as their locations further in the future, and can take into account any available data, for example the day of the week, the recent movements of the occupant, and timetable data. By integrating an existing extension of association rule mining into the approach, it is able to make predictions based on general classes of locations as well as specific locations.

Determinants of driver vs. second row occupant posture modelling

Digital human modeling (DHM), as a convenient and cost-effective tool, is increasingly incorporated into product and workplace design. In product design, it is predominantly used for the development of driver-vehicle systems. Most digital human modeling software tools, such as JACK, RAMSIS and DELMIA HUMANBUILDER provide functions to predict posture and positions for drivers with selected anthropometry according to SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers) Recommended Practices and other ergonomics guidelines. However, few studies have presented 2nd row passenger postural information, and digital human modeling of these passenger postures cannot be performed directly using the existing driver posture prediction functions. In this paper, the significant studies related to occupant posture and modeling were reviewed and a framework of determinants of driver vs. 2nd row occupant posture modeling was extracted. The determinants which are regarded as input factors for posture modeling include target population anthropometry, vehicle package geometry and seat design variables as well as task definitions. The differences between determinants of driver and 2nd row occupant posture models are significant, as driver posture modeling is primarily based on the position of the foot on the accelerator pedal (accelerator actuation point AAP, accelerator heel point AHP) and the hands on the steering wheel (steering wheel centre point A-Point). The objectives of this paper are aimed to investigate those differences between driver and passenger posture, and to supplement the existing parametric model for occupant posture prediction. With the guide of the framework, the associated input parameters of occupant digital human models of both driver and second row occupant will be identified. Beyond the existing occupant posture models, for example a driver posture model could be modified to predict second row occupant posture, by adjusting the associated input parameters introduced in this paper. This study combines results from a literature review and the theoretical modeling stage of a second row passenger posture prediction model project.

Bayesian hierarchical analysis on crash prediction models

Traditional crash prediction models, such as generalized linear regression models, are incapable of taking into account the multilevel data structure, which extensively exists in crash data. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations can lead to the production of models giving unreliable and biased estimates of unknowns. This study innovatively proposes a -level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level – Traffic site level – Traffic crash level – Driver-vehicle unit level – Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To properly model the potential cross-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of Bayesian hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is introduced and recommended. The proposed method is illustrated in an individual-severity analysis of intersection crashes using the Singapore crash records. This study proved the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and demonstrated the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical method in modeling multilevel structure of traffic crash data.

Estimation and prediction of average vehicle occupancies using traffic accident records

As congestion management strategies begin to put more emphasis on person trips than vehicle trips, the need for vehicle occupancy data has become more critical. The traditional methods of collecting these data include the roadside windshield method and the carousel method. These methods are labor-intensive and expensive. An alternative to these traditional methods is to make use of the vehicle occupancy information in traffic accident records. This method is cost effective and may provide better spatial and temporal coverage than the traditional methods. However, this method is subject to potential biases resulting from under- and over-involvement of certain population sectors and certain types of accidents in traffic accident records. In this dissertation, three such potential biases, i.e., accident severity, driver’s age, and driver’s gender, were investigated and the corresponding bias factors were developed as needed. The results show that although multi-occupant vehicles are involved in higher percentages of severe accidents than are single-occupant vehicles, multi-occupant vehicles in the whole accident vehicle population were not overrepresented in the accident database. On the other hand, a significant difference was found between the distributions of the ages and genders of drivers involved in accidents and those of the general driving population. An information system that incorporates adjustments for the potential biases was developed to estimate the average vehicle occupancies (AVOs) for different types of roadways on the Florida state roadway system. A reasonableness check of the results from the system shows AVO estimates that are highly consistent with expectations. In addition, comparisons of AVOs from accident data with the field estimates show that the two data sources produce relatively consistent results. While accident records can be used to obtain the historical AVO trends and field data can be used to estimate the current AVOs, no known methods have been developed to project future AVOs. Four regression models for the purpose of predicting weekday AVOs on different levels of geographic areas and roadway types were developed as part of this dissertation. The models show that such socioeconomic factors as income, vehicle ownership, and employment have a significant impact on AVOs.

Estimation and Prediction of Average Vehicle Occupancies using Traffic Accident Records

As congestion management strategies begin to put more emphasis on person trips than vehicle trips, the need for vehicle occupancy data has become more critical. The traditional methods of collecting these data include the roadside windshield method and the carousel method. These methods are labor-intensive and expensive. An alternative to these traditional methods is to make use of the vehicle occupancy information in traffic accident records. This method is cost effective and may provide better spatial and temporal coverage than the traditional methods. However, this method is subject to potential biases resulting from under- and over-involvement of certain population sectors and certain types of accidents in traffic accident records. In this dissertation, three such potential biases, i.e., accident severity, driver¡¯s age, and driver¡¯s gender, were investigated and the corresponding bias factors were developed as needed. The results show that although multi-occupant vehicles are involved in higher percentages of severe accidents than are single-occupant vehicles, multi-occupant vehicles in the whole accident vehicle population were not overrepresented in the accident database. On the other hand, a significant difference was found between the distributions of the ages and genders of drivers involved in accidents and those of the general driving population. An information system that incorporates adjustments for the potential biases was developed to estimate the average vehicle occupancies (AVOs) for different types of roadways on the Florida state roadway system. A reasonableness check of the results from the system shows AVO estimates that are highly consistent with expectations. In addition, comparisons of AVOs from accident data with the field estimates show that the two data sources produce relatively consistent results. While accident records can be used to obtain the historical AVO trends and field data can be used to estimate the current AVOs, no known methods have been developed to project future AVOs. Four regression models for the purpose of predicting weekday AVOs on different levels of geographic areas and roadway types were developed as part of this dissertation. The models show that such socioeconomic factors as income, vehicle ownership, and employment have a significant impact on AVOs.