Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecastuncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called “How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?”. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydrometeorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants’ willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

Development of the First Disease Activity Index for Eosinophilic Esophagitis: Update on the EEsAI in 2011

Background a nd Aims: T he international E EsAI study g roupis currently developing the first activity index (EEsAI) specificfor Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE). Goal: To develop, evaluateand validate the EEsAI.Methods: T he d evelopment comprises three phases: 1.Selection of candidate items; 2. Evaluation of the activity indexin a f irst patient cohort; and 3. V alidation in a s econd EoEpatient cohort. Focus group interviews with patients were usedin p hase 1 to generate p atient r eported outcomes ( PRO)according to guidelines o f regulatory authorities ( FDA andEMA), whereas the section of biologic items was developed byDelphi r ounds of i nternational E oE experts from E urope andNorth America.Results: The EEsAI has a modular composition to assess thefollowing components o f EoE activity: p atient reportedoutcomes, endoscopic activity, histologic activity, laboratoryactivity, a nd quality of life. D efinitions f or all aspects o fendoscopic and histologic appearance were established byconsensus rounds among EoE experts. Symptom assessmenttools were created that take into account d ifferent foodconsistencies as w ell as f ood avoidance and specificprocessing strategies. T he EEsAI is evaluated in a c ohort ofadult EoE patients since March 2011.Conclusions: After successful validation, the EEsAI will allowto standardize outcome assessment in E oE t rials which w illlikely lead to its wide applicability.

Development of the first disease activity index for eosinophilic esophagitis: update on the EEsAI in 2012

Background and Aims: The international E EsAI s tudy g roup is currently d eveloping the first activity index ( EEsAI) specific for E osinophilic Esophagitis (EoE). G oal: T o develop, e valuate and validate the EEsAI. Methods: T he development c omprises three p hases: 1. Selection of c andidate items ( completed); 2. Evaluation of t he activity index i n a first patient cohort (in progress, p atient recruitment completed); and 3. Validation in a s econd EoE patient cohort. F ocus group interviews with patients were used in p hase 1 to g enerate patient r eported outcomes (PRO) according to g uidelines o f regulatory authorities (FDA a nd EMA), whereas the section of biologic items was developed by Delphi rounds o f international E oE experts from E urope and North America. Results: T he EEsAI has a modular c omposition to a ssess the following components o f EoE activity: p atient r eported outcomes, e ndoscopic activity, histologic activity, laboratory activity, a nd quality of l ife (QoL). Definitions for a ll aspects o f endoscopic and histologic appearance were e stablished by consensus r ounds a mong E oE experts. S ymptom a ssessment tools were c reated that t ake into account d ifferent food consistencies as w ell as f ood avoidance and specific processing strategies. The EEsAI i s currently e valuated in a cohort of a dult EoE patients since M arch 2 011 (patient recruitment completed). Conclusions: The EEsAI standardizes outcome assessment in EoE t rials. T he collaboration with i nternational E oE e xperts a s well as f ollowing o f the guidelines f rom regulatory authorities will lead to its wide applicability.

The Visual Dysphagia Questionnaire: Evaluating the first Tool for Assessing Food Consistency-Dependent Dysphagia in Eosinophilic Esophagitis

Background and Aims: The international EEsAI study group iscurrently developing the first a ctivity index specific forEosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE). None of the existing dysphagiaquestionnaires take into account the consistency of theingested food t hat considerably impacts the symptompresentation. Goal: To d evelop and evaluate an E oE-specificquestionnaire assessing dysphagia caused by foods of differentconsistencies.Methods: B ased on patient interviews and chart reviews, a nexpert panel ( EEsAI study g roup) identified internationallystandardizedfood prototypes t ypically a ssociated with EoErelateddysphagia. Food consistencies were c orrelated withEoE-related d ysphagia, t aking into account p otential f oodavoidance and f ood processing. This V isual D ysphagiaQuestionnaire (VDQ) was piloted in 20 patients and is currentlyevaluated in a cohort of 150 adult EoE patients.Results: T he following 8 food c onsistency prototypes w ereidentified: soft foods (pudding, jelly), grits, toast bread, Frenchfries, dry rice, ground meat, raw fibrous f oods (eg. apple,carrot), s olid m eat. Dysphagia was r anked o n a 4-point Likertscale (0=no difficulties; 3= severe difficulties, food will not pass).First analysis demonstrated that severity of dysphagia is relatedto the eosinophil load and presence of esophageal strictures.Conclusions: T he VDQ i s the first EoE-specific tool f orassessing dysphagia caused by i nternationally-standardizedfoods of different consistencies. This instrument also addressesfood avoidance behaviour and food processing habits. This toolperformed well in a p ilot study a nd is currently evaluated in acohort of 150 adult EoE patients.

Towards a database on societal impact of Mediterranean floods in the framework of the HYMEX project

The NW Mediterranean region experiences every year heavy rainfall and flash floods that occasionally produce catastrophic damages. Less frequent are floods that affect large regions. Although a large number of databases devoted exclusively to floods or considering all kind of natural hazards do exist, usually they only record catastrophic flood events. This paper deals with the new flood database that is being developed within the framework of HYMEX project. Results are focused on four regions representative of the NW sector of Mediterranean Europe: Catalonia, Spain; the Balearic Islands, Spain; Calabria, Italy; and Languedoc-Roussillon, Midi-Pyrenées and PACA, France. The common available 30-yr period starts in 1981 and ends in 2010. The paper shows the database structure and criteria, the comparison with other flood databases, some statistics on spatial and temporal distribution, and an identification of the most important events. The paper also provides a table that includes the date and affected region of all the catastrophic events identified in the regions of study, in order to make this information available for all audiences.

Feeding of nauplii, copepodites and adults of Calanipeda aquaedulcis (Calanoida) in Mediterranean salt marshes

Feeding of the different developmental stages of Calanipeda aquaedulcis on natural particles (bacterio-, phyto- and microzooplankton) was measured in a Mediterranean salt marsh (Empordà wetlands, NE Iberian Peninsula). Bottle incubations were performed in the field both in autumn and spring. The results showed differences in the diet of the different developmental stages due to both prey type and size. In general, the size of the ingested prey increased with increasing size of the C. aquaedulcis stage. While C. aquaedulcis adults had high ingestion rates and selection coefficients for large prey (micro- and nanoplankton), nauplii preferentially consumed smaller prey items (picoplankton). Copepodites showed the widest prey size range, including pico-, nano- and microplankton. Nevertheless, the lower size limit for particle capture was similar for all stages, i.e. between 1.7 and 2.1 μm. Omnivory was observed in all stages of C. aquaedulcis. Heterotrophic prey (picoplankton, dinoflagellates and ciliates) were the most ingested items. The ability to partition the available food among the different developmental stages could represent an advantage in times of ood scarcity because it may reduce intraspecific competition. This may explain how C. aquaedulcis is able to predominate in the zooplankton community for several weeks during spring and summer ven in situations of low food availability

Iowa Flood Mitigation Board Annual Report, 2015

The Iowa Flood Mitigation Program is created within Code of Iowa, Chapter 418. The Program seeks to provide funds for fl ood mitigation projects that otherwise would not be funded. The Flood Mitigation Board is responsible for the implementation of Code of Iowa Chapter 418. The membership of the Board is comprised of four voting public members appointed by the Governor, five voting members representing state agencies, four non-voting ex officio members of the legislature, and one non-voting ex officio member representing a state agency.

Design Patterns in EPOC Software Development

Työssä tutkittiin oliosuunnittelumalleja EPOC-käyttöjärjestelmässä. Työssä tutkittiin sekä yleisiä suunnittelumalleja että EPOC-ympäristössä esiintyviä oliorakenteita, niiden aiheuttamia vaatimuksia sovelluksille sekä niiden käyttämisestä saatavia hyötyjä. Työssä toteutettiin EPOC-ohjelmiston suunnittelu hyödyntäen suunnittelumalleja ja periaatteita. Oliosuunnittelumallit ovat yleistyneet huomattavasti viime vuosina. Suunnittelumallien lähtökohtana ovat sekä yleiset että ympäristökohtaiset suunnitteluperiaatteet ja säännöt. Suunnittelumallit ovat osa isompaa rakennekokonaisuutta, joka käsittää sekä prosessi-, analyysi-, arkkitehtuuri- ym. malleja. Oliosuunnittelumallit nopeuttavat ja helpottavat suunnittelua sekä parantavat uudelleenkäytettävyyttä korkeammalla abstraktiotasolla. EPOC on tulevaisuuden mobiililaitteiden yleisimpiä käyttöjärjestelmiä. EPOC on kokonaisuudessaan oliopohjainen ja sisältää lukuisia oliorakenteita, joiden ymmärtäminen on sovelluskehityksen kannalta elintärkeää. Koska ympäristöt, joissa EPOC-käyttöjärjestelmää käytetään, ovat yleensä resurssien puolesta rajoittuneita, on yleisten suunnittelumallien käytössä oltava tarkkana. EPOC vaatii yleisiin suunnittelumalleihin muutoksia ja estää joidenkin käytön kokonaan.

Validity of the FACIT-Sp to assess spiritual well-being in elderly patients

Among instruments measuring spiritual well-being, the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Spiritual well-being (FACIT-Sp-12) is the most widely used instrument in research. It has been validated in patients suffering from cancer or HIV/AIDS, but has rarely been used in elderly patients. The objectives of this study were to determine the psychometric properties and suitability of the FACIT-Spto assess spiritual well-being in hospitalized elderly patients. This cross-sectional study uses a mixed method approach. Subjects were patients (N = 208), aged 65 years and older, consecutively admitted in post-acute rehabilitation. Psychometric properties of the FACITSp were investigated. The internal structure of the FACIT-Sp (factor structure and internal consistency) was assessed. Convergent validity of the FACIT-Sp was assessed using the Spiritual Distress Assessment Tool (SDAT), the question "Are you at peace?" and the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS). Predictive validity was assessed using length of stay (LOS) and discharge destination. Understanding and interpretation of FACIT-Sp items were consecutively assessed in a sub-sample of 135 patients. Results show that FACIT-Sp scores ranged from 7 to 46 (mean 29.6 ± 7.8); 23.1% of the patients had high spiritual well-being. Cronbach's α was g ood ( 0.85). Item-to-total correlations were all significant (0.34 to 0.73). Principal component analyses performed with 2 or 3 factors were only moderately consistent with previous work. FACIT-Sp correlated with SDAT, "Are you at peace?" and GDS (Rho = −0.45, P < 0.001; 0.51, P < 0.001 and −0.38, P < 0.001). No association was found with LOS or discharge destination. Spontaneous comments about one or more FACIT-Sp items were made by 97/135 (71.9%). Specifically, items that address purpose and meaning in life were frequently found difficult to answer. Analyses suggest that the FACIT-Sp may underestimate spiritual well-being in older patients. In conclusion, despite having acceptable psychometric properties, the FACIT-Sp presents limitations for measurement of spiritual well-being in hospitalized elderly patients.

Deep-fat frying of meat products in palm olein

This study investigated the discontinuous frying of breaded meat products in palm olein in a 28 L-electric fryer maintained at 182 ºC for 8 hours a day. Three 400-500 g batches of meat products were fried for 4.5 minutes daily. For comparison purpose, thermoxidation tests were performed using inert material with added moisture and without the addition of f ood (heating only). The total polar compound content did not reach the 25% limit, and nor did the formation of polymerized products exceed 5%, which indicates the good frying performance of palm olein for frying. Other analytical parameters and rapid tests were also evaluated. The sensory attributes, such as odor, colour, and foam formation determined when the frying oils should be discarded. The addition of water to the inert material contributed to the final value of 1.00 ± 0.01% (in palmitic acid), while the oil subjected only to heating reached respectively 0.26 ± 0.02%, and the oils used to fry breaded meat and breaded chicken reached 0.38 ± 0.00% and 2.35 ± 0.01%, respectively. This suggests a protective effect of the water during frying since the oil subjected only to heating was more prone to degradation.

Commodities and their fetishism

Many pr oblems present themselves in at tempting t o discuss Marx's noti on of the fetish characteristics of commodities. It has been argued that it is one of the central points of Marx's en tir e c or pus. 1 It has also been argued that it i s merely "a brilli an t s oci olog i cal genera lization l ! and, even furth er, that it is an Hi ndependent and separate entity, internally hardly related t o Marx's economic theory" .2 How could such a theory be understo od i n such drastically diff erent ways? Perhaps the clue is to be f ound somewhere in Marx' s discussion of the fetishism of commodities itself. Because of the difficulty in un derstanding fetishism , I intend t o examine what Marx himself has t o say first befor e dealing with any points related to the notion of fetishism. Thus , the first parts of this thesis will c onsist of l ong qu otations and repetition of what Marx has t o say. If a noti on may be called ' central' and yet 'hardly related' t o Marx's wor k at the same time, surely a clear examination of this section is necess ary. Aft er an examination of the initial secti ons of Cae ital ] I intend t G examine the f ollowing : the r e lation of fetishism t o the t he ory of alienati on; how one may regard f etishism as a pr oblem f or philosophy; and how, in f act, the theory of fetishism is of prime imp ortance f or an understan ding of Marx's wr itings. What I want to stress throughout is that with o u~ an understanding of what is inherent in the pr oduction of the commodity causing i t t o be necessarily fetishistic, it is practically imp ossible t o understand much of Marx's other writin gs. A commodity appears, at fir st sight, a very trivial thing and easi ly un derst ood. Itsanalysis shows that it i s , in r eality , a very queer thing , abo unding in ~taphysical s ubtleties and theological nic eties .

Relations entre le style parental, le style parental alimentaire et les pratiques alimentaires de la mère et les comportements alimentaires de l’enfant québécois d’âge préscolaire

Le surpoids (embonpoint et obésité) chez l’enfant est un problème préoccupant qui prend de plus en plus d’ampleur. Le rôle du parent dans cette problématique est prédominant, puisqu’il assure la disponibilité des aliments, choisit les mets présentés, joue le rôle de modèle dans l’acte alimentaire et interagit avec l’enfant durant les prises alimentaires pour guider son comportement alimentaire. Le parent offre et façonne l’environnement dans lequel évolue l’enfant. Cette thèse explore le rôle de la mère dans cet environnement. Le parent utilise diverses pratiques alimentaires pour guider l’alimentation de l’enfant. Certaines sont douces, comme encourager positivement l’enfant à essayer un aliment (ex. Goûtes-y, moi je trouve ça très bon!) et d’autres plus coercitives (ex. Tu ne sors pas de table sans avoir terminé ton assiette). Les interactions parent-enfant lors de la prise alimentaire sont susceptibles d’avoir différentes conséquences sur l’alimentation de l’enfant, modifiant possiblement les apports alimentaires, les préférences, la néophobie et le statut pondéral. Les interactions parent-enfant en général, donc hors du contexte précis de l’alimentation, peuvent aussi influencer les comportements alimentaires de l’enfant. L’objectif général de cette thèse est d’explorer les relations entre les interactions parent-enfant en général, aussi nommées « styles parentaux » (SP), les interactions parent-enfant dans le contexte alimentaire, portant le nom de «styles parentaux alimentaires» (SPA), les stratégies alimentaires utilisées par les parents pour guider l’alimentation de l’enfant, nommées « pratiques alimentaires parentales » (PAP), les comportements alimentaires de l’enfant et le statut pondéral de ce dernier. Cette thèse comprend 4 objectifs spécifiques. D’abord, d’examiner les relations entre les SP, les SPA et les PAP. Dans un deuxième temps, les relations entre les SPA, le comportement alimentaire de l’enfant (préférence et fréquence de consommation) et le statut pondéral de l’enfant seront explorées. Puis, l’existence de relations entre l’usage de PAP et le comportement alimentaire de l’enfant sera évaluée. Finalement, les relations entre les attitudes de la mère à l’égard de son poids et de celui de son enfant et du comportement néophobique de l’enfant seront explorées. Cent vingt-deux mères d’enfants d’âge préscolaire, de 3 à 5 ans, ont été recrutées par des milieux de garde de l’île de Montréal et ont complété et retourné un questionnaire auto-administré portant sur le style parental, style parental alimentaire, les PAP, les fréquences de consommation de l’enfant, les préférences de l’enfant pour certains aliments et groupe d’aliments, la néophobie de l’enfant, le poids et la taille de l’enfant, le régime actuel de la mère, la perception du poids de l’enfant, la préoccupation face au poids de l’enfant ainsi que la description du profil familial. Les SP, les SPA et les PAP montrent des corrélations. Les SPA, plus particulièrement les deux échelles qui les composent (exigence et sensibilité) montrent des corrélations avec la consommation et la préférence pour certains aliments. Des différences sont aussi notées entre les différents SPA et le statut pondéral de l’enfant et certains comportements alimentaires. La présente thèse suggère une implication de trois concepts, soient les SP, les SPA et les PAP, dans la dynamique alimentaire de la dyade mère-enfant. Des relations importantes entre les SPA et les préférences alimentaires sont suggérées. Les futures recherches dans ce domaine devront évaluer l’impact relatif des PAP, des SP et des SPA sur le comportement alimentaire (consommation et préférence) et le poids de l’enfant. Une intervention efficace visant des changements de comportements alimentaires auprès des familles devra adresser à la fois les PAP, mais aussi les SP et les SPA.

Uncertainties in tidally adjusted estimates of sea level rise flooding (bathtub model) for the Greater London

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on the projected SLR scenarios reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) and UK climatic projections 2009 (UKCP09) using a tidally-adjusted bathtub modelling approach. Medium- to very high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are used to evaluate inundation extents as well as uncertainties. Depending on the SLR scenario and DEMs used, it is estimated that 3%–8% of the area of Greater London could be inundated by 2100. The boroughs with the largest areas at risk of flooding are Newham, Southwark, and Greenwich. The differences in inundation areas estimated from a digital terrain model and a digital surface model are much greater than the root mean square error differences observed between the two data types, which may be attributed to processing levels. Flood models from SRTM data underestimate the inundation extent, so their results may not be reliable for constructing flood risk maps. This analysis provides a broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR and uncertainties in the DEM-based bathtub type flood inundation modelling for London boroughs.

On the origin of the high capacitance of nitrogen-containing carbon nanotubes in acidic and alkaline electrolytes

The synthesis of nitrogenated carbon nanotubes (N-CNTs) with up to 6.1 wt% N, via the use of pyridine as the nitrogen containing carbon precursor, can provide a facile route to significantly enhance the low intrinsic specific capacitance of carbon nanotubes. The nitrogen functionalities determine this, at least, five-fold increase of the specific capacitance.