Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming

This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much ( or too little) greenhouse warming by too much ( or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater ( at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr(-1) increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century(-1) (5-95 percentiles).

Dynamical and observational constraints on tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures at the last glacial maximum

Asynchronously coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model simulations are used to examine the consequences of changes in the west/east sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient across the equatorial Pacific at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Simulations forced by the CLIMAP SST for the LGM, where the west/east SST gradient across the Pacific is reduced compared to present, produce a reduction in the strength of the trade winds and a decrease in the west/east slope of the equatorial thermocline that is incompatible with thermocline depths newly inferred from foraminiferal assemblages. Stronger-than-present trade winds, and a more realistic simulation of the thermocline slope, are produced when eastern Pacific SSTs are 2°C cooler than western Pacific SSTs. Our study highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity in tropical SSTs in determining key features of the glacial climate.

Observational constraints on atmospheric and oceanic cross-equatorial heat transports: revisiting the precipitation asymmetry problem in climate models

Satellite based top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation budget observations are combined with mass corrected vertically integrated atmospheric energy divergence and tendency from reanalysis to infer the regional distribution of the TOA, atmospheric and surface energy budget terms over the globe. Hemispheric contrasts in the energy budget terms are used to determine the radiative and combined sensible and latent heat contributions to the cross-equatorial heat transports in the atmosphere (AHT_EQ) and ocean (OHT_EQ). The contrast in net atmospheric radiation implies an AHT_EQ from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) (0.75 PW), while the hemispheric difference in sensible and latent heat implies an AHT_EQ in the opposite direction (0.51 PW), resulting in a net NH to SH AHT_EQ (0.24 PW). At the surface, the hemispheric contrast in the radiative component (0.95 PW) dominates, implying a 0.44 PW SH to NH OHT_EQ. Coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models with excessive net downward surface radiation and surface-to-atmosphere sensible and latent heat transport in the SH relative to the NH exhibit anomalous northward AHT_EQ and overestimate SH tropical precipitation. The hemispheric bias in net surface radiative flux is due to too much longwave surface radiative cooling in the NH tropics in both clear and all-sky conditions and excessive shortwave surface radiation in the SH subtropics and extratropics due to an underestimation in reflection by clouds.

Observational constraints on the dark energy and dark matter mutual coupling

We examine different phenomenological interaction models for Dark Energy and Dark Matter by performing statistical joint analysis with observational data arising from the 182 Gold type la supernova samples, the shift parameter of the Cosmic Microwave Background given by the three-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe observations, the baryon acoustic oscillation measurement from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and age estimates of 35 galaxies. Including the time-dependent observable, we add sensitivity of measurement and give complementary results for the fitting. The compatibility among three different data sets seem to imply that the coupling between dark energy and dark matter is a small positive value, which satisfies the requirement to solve the coincidence problem and the second law of thermodynamics, being compatible with previous estimates. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Observational constraints on holographic tachyonic dark energy in interaction with dark matter

We discuss an interacting tachyonic dark energy model in the context of the holographic principle. The potential of the holographic tachyon field in interaction with dark matter is constructed. The model results are compared with CMB shift parameter, baryonic acoustic oscilations, lookback time and the Constitution supernovae sample. The coupling constant of the model is compatible with zero, but dark energy is not given by a cosmological constant.

Observational constraints on a phenomenological f (R, partial derivative R)-model

This paper analyses the cosmological consequences of amodified theory of gravity whose action integral is built from a linear combination of the Ricci scalar R and a quadratic term in the covariant derivative of R. The resulting Friedmann equations are of the fifth-order in the Hubble function. These equations are solved numerically for a flat space section geometry and pressureless matter. The cosmological parameters of the higher-order model are fit using SN Ia data and X-ray gas mass fraction in galaxy clusters. The best-fit present-day t(0) values for the deceleration parameter, jerk and snap are given. The coupling constant beta of the model is not univocally determined by the data fit, but partially constrained by it. Density parameter Omega(m0) is also determined and shows weak correlation with the other parameters. The model allows for two possible future scenarios: there may be either an eternal expansion or a Rebouncing event depending on the set of values in the space of parameters. The analysis towards the past performed with the best-fit parameters shows that the model is not able to accommodate a matter-dominated stage required to the formation of structure.

On the determination of the rotational oblateness of Achernar

The recent interferometric study of Achernar, leading to the conclusion that its geometrical oblateness cannot be explained by the Roche approximation, has stirred substantial interest in the community, in view of its potential impact on many fields of stellar astrophysics. It is the purpose of this Letter to reinterpret the interferometric observations with a fast-rotating, gravity-darkened central star surrounded by a small equatorial disk, whose presence is consistent with contemporaneous spectroscopic data. We find that we can fit the available data only assuming a critically rotating central star. We identified two different disk models that simultaneously fit the spectroscopic, polarimetric, and interferometric observational constraints: a tenuous disk in hydrostatic equilibrium (i.e., with small scale height) and a smaller, scale height enhanced disk. We believe that these relatively small disks correspond to the transition region between the photosphere and the circumstellar environment and that they are probably perturbed by some photospheric mechanism. The study of this interface between photosphere and circumstellar disk for near-critical rotators is crucial to our understanding of the Be phenomenon and the mass and angular momentum loss of stars in general. This work shows that it is nowadays possible to directly study this transition region from simultaneous multitechnique observations.

Confronting dark energy models using galaxy cluster number counts

The mass function of cluster-size halos and their redshift distribution are computed for 12 distinct accelerating cosmological scenarios and confronted to the predictions of the conventional flat Lambda CDM model. The comparison with Lambda CDM is performed by a two-step process. First, we determine the free parameters of all models through a joint analysis involving the latest cosmological data, using supernovae type Ia, the cosmic microwave background shift parameter, and baryon acoustic oscillations. Apart from a braneworld inspired cosmology, it is found that the derived Hubble relation of the remaining models reproduces the Lambda CDM results approximately with the same degree of statistical confidence. Second, in order to attempt to distinguish the different dark energy models from the expectations of Lambda CDM, we analyze the predicted cluster-size halo redshift distribution on the basis of two future cluster surveys: (i) an X-ray survey based on the eROSITA satellite, and (ii) a Sunayev-Zeldovich survey based on the South Pole Telescope. As a result, we find that the predictions of 8 out of 12 dark energy models can be clearly distinguished from the Lambda CDM cosmology, while the predictions of 4 models are statistically equivalent to those of the Lambda CDM model, as far as the expected cluster mass function and redshift distribution are concerned. The present analysis suggests that such a technique appears to be very competitive to independent tests probing the late time evolution of the Universe and the associated dark energy effects.

The isolated neutron star candidate 2XMM J104608.7-594306

Over the last decade, X-ray observations have revealed the existence of several classes of isolated neutron stars (INSs) which are radio-quiet or exhibit radio emission with properties much at variance with those of ordinary radio pulsars. The identification of new sources is crucial in order to understand the relations among the different classes and to compare observational constraints with theoretical expectations. A recent analysis of the 2XMMp catalogue provided fewer than 30 new thermally emitting INS candidates. Among these, the source 2XMM J104608.7-594306 appears particularly interesting because of the softness of its X-ray spectrum, kT = 117 +/- 14 eV and N(H) = (3.5 +/- 1.1) x 10(21) cm(-2) (3 sigma), and of the present upper limits in the optical, m(B) greater than or similar to 26, m(V) greater than or similar to 25.5 and m(R) greater than or similar to 25 (98.76% confidence level), which imply a logarithmic X-ray-to-optical flux ratio log(F(X)/F(V)) greater than or similar to 3.1, corrected for absorption. We present the X-ray and optical properties of 2XMM J104608.7-594306 and discuss its nature in the light of two possible scenarios invoked to explain the X-ray thermal emission from INSs: the release of residual heat in a cooling neutron star, as in the seven radio-quiet ROSAT-discovered INSs, and accretion from the interstellar medium. We find that the present observational picture of 2XMM J104608.7-594306 is consistent with a distant cooling INS with properties in agreement with the most up-to-date expectations of population synthesis models: it is fainter, hotter and more absorbed than the seven ROSAT sources and possibly located in the Carina Nebula, a region likely to harbour unidentified cooling neutron stars. The accretion scenario, although not entirely ruled out by observations, would require a very slow (similar to 10 km s(-1)) INS accreting at the Bondi-Hoyle rate.

Field theory model for dark matter and dark energy in interaction

We propose a field theory model for dark energy and dark matter in interaction. Comparing the classical solutions of the field equations with the observations of the CMB shift parameter, baryonic acoustic oscillations, lookback time, and the Gold supernovae sample, we observe a possible interaction between dark sectors with energy decay from dark energy into dark matter. The observed interaction provides an alleviation to the coincidence problem.

Two-loop stability of a complex singlet extended Standard Model

Motivated by the dark matter and the baryon asymmetry problems, we analyze a complex singlet extension of the Standard Model with a Z(2) symmetry (which provides a dark matter candidate). After a detailed two-loop calculation of the renormalization group equations for the new scalar sector, we study the radiative stability of the model up to a high energy scale (with the constraint that the 126 GeV Higgs boson found at the LHC is in the spectrum) and find it requires the existence of a new scalar state mixing with the Higgs with a mass larger than 140 GeV. This bound is not very sensitive to the cutoff scale as long as the latter is larger than 10(10) GeV. We then include all experimental and observational constraints/measurements from collider data, from dark matter direct detection experiments, and from the Planck satellite and in addition force stability at least up to the grand unified theory scale, to find that the lower bound is raised to about 170 GeV, while the dark matter particle must be heavier than about 50 GeV.

A microquasar model applied to unidentified gamma-ray sources

Among unidentified gamma-ray sources in the galactic plane, there are some that present significant variability and have been proposed to be high-mass microquasars. To deepen the study of the possible association between variable low galactic latitude gamma-ray sources and microquasars, we have applied a leptonic jet model based on the microquasar scenario that reproduces the gamma-ray spectrum of three unidentified gamma-ray sources, 3EG J1735-1500, 3EG J1828+0142 and GRO J1411-64, and is consistent with the observational constraints at lower energies. We conclude that if these sources were generated by microquasars, the particle acceleration processes could not be as efficient as in other objects of this type that present harder gamma-ray spectra. Moreover, the dominant mechanism of high-energy emission should be synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) scattering, and the radio jets may only be observed at low frequencies. For each particular case, further predictions of jet physical conditions and variability generation mechanisms have been made in the context of the model. Although there might be other candidates able to explain the emission coming from these sources, microquasars cannot be excluded as counterparts. Observations performed by the next generation of gamma-ray instruments, like GLAST, are required to test the proposed model.

Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and doubled-CO2 (171720 simulations) climates. Some simulations used parameter values representing genotypic adaptation to mean temperature change. Firstly, observed and simulated yields in the baseline climate were compared. Secondly, the response of yield to changes in mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. Thirdly, the relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes was examined. In simulations without genotypic adaptation, most of the uncertainty came from the climate model parameters. Comparison with the simulations with genotypic adaptation and with a previous study suggested that the relatively low crop parameter uncertainty derives from the observational constraints on the crop parameters used in this study. Fourthly, the simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. The results suggest that the germplasm for complete adaptation of groundnut cultivation in western India to a doubled-CO2 environment may not exist. In conjunction with analyses of germplasm and local management

Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport

The possibility of a rapid collapse in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), with associated impacts on climate, has long been recognized. The suggested basis for this risk is the existence of two stable regimes of the AMOC (‘on’ and ‘off’), and such bistable behaviour has been identified in a range of simplified climate models. However, up to now, no state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate model (AOGCM) has exhibited such behaviour, leading to the interpretation that the AMOC is more stable than simpler models indicate. Here we demonstrate AMOC bistability in the response to freshwater perturbations in the FAMOUS AOGCM - the most complex AOGCM to exhibit such behaviour to date. The results also support recent suggestions that the direction of the net freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic by the AMOC may be a useful physical indicator of the existence of bistability. We also present new estimates for this net freshwater transport by the AMOC from a range of ocean reanalyses which suggest that the Atlantic AMOC is currently in a bistable regime, although with large uncertainties. More accurate observational constraints, and an improved physical understanding of this quantity, could help narrow uncertainty in the future evolution of the AMOC and to assess the risk of a rapid AMOC collapse.