Kirjallisuutta

Pääosa virallisen vastaväittäjän Matti Rudangon Lapin yliopiston oikeustieteiden tiedekunnalle antamasta 26.10.1998 päivätystä lausunnosta

Assessment of the factors controlling the long-term fate of dredged material deposited in unconfined subaqueous disposal areas : final report /

"Contract No. DACW39-73-C-0129."

On modifications to the long-term survival mixture model in the presence of competing risks

A mixture model for long-term survivors has been adopted in various fields such as biostatistics and criminology where some individuals may never experience the type of failure under study. It is directly applicable in situations where the only information available from follow-up on individuals who will never experience this type of failure is in the form of censored observations. In this paper, we consider a modification to the model so that it still applies in the case where during the follow-up period it becomes known that an individual will never experience failure from the cause of interest. Unless a model allows for this additional information, a consistent survival analysis will not be obtained. A partial maximum likelihood (ML) approach is proposed that preserves the simplicity of the long-term survival mixture model and provides consistent estimators of the quantities of interest. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the efficiency of the partial ML approach relative to the full ML approach for survival in the presence of competing risks.

Global trajectories of the long-term decline of coral reef ecosystems

Degradation of coral reef ecosystems began centuries ago, but there is no global summary of the magnitude of change. We compiled records, extending back thousands of years, of the status and trends of seven major guilds of carnivores, herbivores, and architectural species from 14 regions. Large animals declined before small animals and architectural species, and Atlantic reefs declined before reefs in the Red Sea and Australia, but the trajectories of decline were markedly similar worldwide. All reefs were substantially degraded long before outbreaks of coral disease and bleaching. Regardless of these new threats, reefs will not survive without immediate protection from human exploitation over large spatial scales.

A randomized double-blind placebo-controlled study of the long-term efficacy and safety of diethylpropion in the treatment of obese subjects

Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of diethylpropion on a long-term basis, with emphasis in cardiovascular and psychiatric safety aspects. Design: Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial Measurements: Following a 2-week screening period, 69 obese healthy adults received a hypocaloric diet and were randomized to diethylpropion 50 mg BID (n = 37) or placebo (n = 32) for 6 months. After this period, all participants received diethylpropion in an open-label extension for an additional 6 months. The primary outcome was percentage change in body weight. Electrocardiogram (ECG), echocardiography and clinical chemistry were performed at baseline and every 6 months. Psychiatric evaluation and application of Hamilton rating scales for depression and anxiety were also performed by experienced psychiatrists at baseline and every 3 months. Results: After 6 months, the diethylpropion group lost an average of 9.8% (s.d. 6.9%) of initial body weight vs 3.2% (3.7%) in the placebo group (P < 0.0001). From baseline to month 12, the mean weight loss produced by diethylpropion was 10.6% (8.3%). Participants in the placebo group who were switched to diethylpropion after 6 months lost an average of 7.0% (7.7%) of initial body weight. The difference between groups at month 12 was not significant (P = 0.07). No differences in blood pressure, pulse rate, ECG and psychiatric evaluation were observed. Dry mouth and insomnia were the most frequent adverse events. Conclusion: Diethylpropion plus diet produced sustained and clinically significant weight loss over 1 year. It seems to be safe in relation to cardiovascular and psychiatric aspects in a well-selected population. International Journal of Obesity (2009) 33, 857-865; doi: 10.1038/ijo.2009.124; published online 30 June 2009

Glycemia and prognosis of patients with chronic heart failure-Subanalysis of the Long-term Prospective Randomized Controlled Study Using Repetitive Education at Six-Month Intervals and Monitoring for Adherence in Heart Failure Outpatients (REMADHE) trial

Background Heart failure and diabetes often occur simultaneously in patients, but the prognostic value of glycemia in chronic heart failure is debatable. We evaluated the role of glycemia on prognosis of heart failure. Methods Outpatients with chronic heart failure from the Long-term Prospective Randomized Controlled Study Using Repetitive Education at Six-Month Intervals and Monitoring for Adherence in Heart Failure Outpatients (REMADHE) trial were grouped according to the presence of diabetes and level of glycemia. All-cause mortality/heart transplantation and unplanned hospital admission were evaluated. Results Four hundred fifty-six patients were included (135 [29.5%] female, 124 [27.2%] with diabetes mellitus, age of w50.2 +/- 11.4 years, and left-ventricle ejection fraction of 34.7% +/- 10.5%). During follow-up (3.6 +/- 2.2 years), 27 (5.9%) patients were submitted to heart transplantation and 202 (44.2%) died; survival was similar in patients with and without diabetes mellitus. When patients with and without diabetes were categorized according to glucose range (glycemia <= 100 mg/dL [5.5 mmol/L]), as well as when distributed in quintiles of glucose, the survival was significantly worse among patients with lower levels of glycemia. This finding persisted in Cox proportional hazards regression model that included gender, etiology, left ventricle ejection fraction, left ventricle diastolic diameter, creatinine level and beta-blocker therapy, and functional status (hazard ratio 1.45, 95% CI 1.09-1.69, P = .039). No difference regarding unplanned hospital admission was found. Conclusion We report on an inverse association between glycemia and mortality in outpatients with chronic heart failure. These results point to a new pathophysiologic understanding of the interactions between diabetes mellitus, hyperglycemia, and heart disease. (Am Heart J 2010; 159: 90-7.)

Can ECG changes predict the long-term outcome in patients admitted to hospital for suspected acute myocardial infarction?

7,028 patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction and discharged alive from hospital were followed in a 10-year community-based study. The long-term prognosis was relatively good if the electrocardiograms (ECGs) were normal (5-year all-cause death rate 5%), poor with uncodable ECGs showing rhythm or conduction disturbances (37%), and intermediate with new Q wave, new ST elevation, new T wave inversion or ischemic ECG (17-21%), and with new ST depression (27%). Similar patterns were found for ischemic cardiac death and reinfarction. The long-term prognosis of patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction is relatively good if the ECGs are normal and poor if ECGs are uncodable. ST depression may be a marker for a worse long-term outcome.

Long-term risk stratification for survivors of acute coronary syndromes - Results from the long-term intervention with pravastatin in ischemic disease (LIPID) study

OBJECTIVES We developed a prognostic strategy for quantifying the long-term risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) events in survivors of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). BACKGROUND Strategies for quantifying long-term risk of CHD events have generally been confined to primary prevention settings. The Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease (LIPID) study, which demonstrated that pravastatin reduces CHD events in ACS survivors with a broad range of cholesterol levels, enabled assessment of long-term prognosis in a secondary prevention setting. METHODS Based on outcomes in 8,557 patients in the LIPID study, a multivariate risk factor model was developed for prediction of CHD death or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Prognostic indexes were developed based on the model, and low-, medium-, high- and very high-risk groups were defined by categorizing the prognostic indexes. RESULTS In addition to pravastatin treatment, the independently significant risk factors included: total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, age, gender, smoking status, qualifying ACS, prior coronary revascularization, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and prior stroke. Pravastatin reduced coronary event rates in each risk level, and the relative risk reduction did not vary significantly between risk levels. The predicted five-year coronary event rates ranged from 5% to 19% for those assigned pravastatin and from 6.4% to 23.6% fur those assigned placebo. CONCLUSIONS Long-term prognosis of ACS survivors varied substantially according to conventional risk factor profile. Pravastatin reduced coronary risk within all risk levels; however, absolute risk remained high in treated patients with unfavorable profiles. Our risk stratification strategy enables identification of ACS survivors who remain at very high risk despite statin therapy. CT Am Coil Cardiol 2001;38:56-63) (C) 2001 by the American College of Cardiology.

The long-term effects of cooperative learning on children's behaviour and interactions

This study investigates the long-term effects of training in small-group and interpersonal behaviours on children's behaviours and interactions as they worked in small groups two years after they were initially trained. Forty-eight third grade children, who had been trained two years previously in cooperative group behaviours, were assigned to the Trained condition and 44 third grade children who had not previously been trained were assigned to the Untrained condition. The children in the trained and untrained groups were reconstituted from the pool of students who had participated previously in either trained or untrained group activities. The results showed that there was a long-term training effect with the children in the Trained groups demonstrating more cooperative behaviour and providing more explanations in response to requests for help than their untrained peers.

Exploring the long-term associations between adolescents’ music training and academic achievement

There is a positive relationship between learning music and academic achievement, although doubts remain regarding the mechanisms underlying this association. This research analyses the academic performance of music and non-music students from seventh to ninth grade. The study controls for socioeconomic status, intelligence, motivation and prior academic achievement. Data were collected from 110 adolescents at two time points, once when the students were between 11 and 14 years old in the seventh grade, and again 3 years later. Our results show that music students perform better academically than non-music students in the seventh grade (Cohen’s d = 0.88) and in the ninth grade (Cohen’s d = 1.05). This difference is particularly evident in their scores in Portuguese language and natural science; the difference is somewhat weaker in history and geography scores, and is least pronounced in mathematics and English scores (η2 p from .09 to .21). A longitudinal analysis also revealed better academic performance by music students after controlling for prior academic achievement (η2 p = .07). Furthermore, controlling for intelligence, socioeconomic status and motivation did not eliminate the positive association between music learning from the seventh to the ninth grade and students’ academic achievement (η2 p = .06). During the period, music students maintained better and more consistent academic standing. We conclude that, after controlling for intelligence, socioeconomic status and motivation, music training is positively associated with academic achievement.

Absence of clinical abnormalities suggesting renal involvement during the long-term course of visceral Leishmaniasis

Abnormalities of renal function have been demonstrated inpatients with visceral leishmaniasis; although there was a trend toward normalization following antiparasitic therapy, some abnormalities persisted. With thepurpose of studying the long- term clinical course of renal involvement in visceral leishmaniasis, 32 patients with a diagnosis of this parasitic disease were evaluated in the endemic area and at least 6 months after the clinical cure of the disease and compared with a control group of 28 individuals. No patient had a history or clinical findings suggestive of renal disease and all were normotensive. Laboratory evaluation was normal in all except 3 patients with abnormal urinalysis. Mild proteinuria and microscopic hematuria were seen in a single urinalysis in one patient (although three other urinalysis were normal), and leucocyturia in two female patients. It was concluded that the renal involvement in visceral leishmaniasis is mild and transient, with normal renal function observed on long-term follow-up after cure of the parasitic infection.

Investigating the long term planning framework for the Galway Bay community from climate change.

This research looked at the scientific evidence available on climate change and in particular, projections on sea level rise which ranged from 0.5m to 2m by the end of the century. These projections were then considered in an Irish context. A review of current policy in Ireland revealed that there was no dedicated Government policy on climate change or coastal zone management. In terms of spatial planning policy, it became apparent that there was little or no guidance on climate change either at a national, regional or local level. Therefore, to determine the likely impacts of sea level rise in Ireland based on current spatial planning practice and policy, a scenario-building exercise was carried out for two case study areas in Galway Bay. The two case study areas were: Oranmore, a densely populated town located to the east of Inner Galway Bay; and Tawin Island, a rural dispersed community, located to the south east of Inner Galway Bay. A ‘best’ and ‘worse’ case scenario was envisaged for both areas in terms of sea level rise. In the absence of specific climate change policies it was projected that in the ‘best’ case scenario of 0.5m sea level rise, Tawin Island would suffer serious and adverse impacts while Oranmore was likely to experience slight to moderate impacts. However, in the ‘worse’ case scenario of a 2m sea level rise, it was likely that Tawin Island would be abandoned while many houses, businesses and infrastructure built within the floodplain of Oranmore Bay would be inundated and permanently flooded. In this regard, it was the author’s opinion that a strategic and integrated climate change policy and adaptation plan is vital for the island of Ireland that recognises the importance of integrated land use and spatial planning in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

The Long Term Prospects for Activity in the UK Continental Shelf

NORTH SEA STUDY OCCASIONAL PAPER No. 119