A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

On the Busy Period in One Finite Queue of M/G/1 Type with Inactive Orbit

The paper deals with a single server finite queuing system where the customers, who failed to get service, are temporarily blocked in the orbit of inactive customers. This model and its variants have many applications, especially for optimization of the corresponding models with retrials. We analyze the system in non-stationary regime and, using the discrete transformations method study, the busy period length and the number of successful calls made during it. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): G.3, J.7.

An analytical model for an IEEE~802.11 WLAN using DCF with two types of VoIP calls

In this paper we develop and numerically explore the modeling heuristic of using saturation attempt probabilities as state dependent attempt probabilities in an IEEE 802.11e infrastructure network carrying packet telephone calls and TCP controlled file downloads, using enhanced distributed channel access (EDCA). We build upon the fixed point analysis and performance insights. When there are a certain number of nodes of each class contending for the channel (i.e., have nonempty queues), then their attempt probabilities are taken to be those obtained from saturation analysis for that number of nodes. Then we model the system queue dynamics at the network nodes. With the proposed heuristic, the system evolution at channel slot boundaries becomes a Markov renewal process, and regenerative analysis yields the desired performance measures. The results obtained from this approach match well with ns2 simulations. We find that, with the default IEEE 802.11e EDCA parameters for AC 1 and AC 3, the voice call capacity decreases if even one file download is initiated by some station. Subsequently, reducing the voice calls increases the file download capacity almost linearly (by 1/3 Mbps per voice call for the 11 Mbps PHY)

A study of successful applicants' views of a social work admissions process

Summary: There are substantial variations in the way that applicants are selected
for social work programmes in the UK and across the world. This article begins by reviewing the literature in this field, revealing debates about how effective and reliable are methods of assessment used during admission processes. It then describes a crosssectional survey of new social work applicants (n¼203) to two programme providers,describing demographic characteristics and their experiences of the admissions process.
Findings: A number of themes emerged from two sets of findings. There were variations in demographic characteristics, particularly in terms of gender and religion. The study was particularly interested in how students viewed the admissions process. Most students were satisfied with admissions processes, and there were some differences in views about the methods used. The article concludes by describing changes to the admissions system that were partly informed by the study. The article acknowledges the expected bias in the methodology, given that successful applicants were surveyed
and not those who were not successful.
Applications: The authors discuss the study findings in the context of national and international literature and suggest that more rigorous attention should be paid to such evaluations to enable this important area of education and workforce development to be better understood.

The paradox of invasion: Reeves’ muntjac deer invade the British Isles from a limited number of founding females

High levels of genetic diversity and high propagule pressure are favoured by conservation biologists as the basis for successful reintroductions and ensuring the persistence of populations. However, invasion ecologists recognize the ‘paradox of invasion’, as successful species introductions may often be characterized by limited numbers of individuals and associated genetic bottlenecks. In the present study, we used a combination of high-resolution nuclear and mitochondrial genetic markers to investigate the invasion history of Reeves' muntjac deer in the British Isles. This invasion has caused severe economic and ecological damage, with secondary spread currently a concern throughout Europe and potentially globally. Microsatellite analysis based on eight loci grouped all 176 introduced individuals studied from across the species' range in the UK into one genetic cluster, and seven mitochondrial D-loop haplotypes were recovered, two of which were present at very low frequency and were related to more common haplotypes. Our results indicate that the entire invasion can be traced to a single founding event involving a low number of females. These findings highlight the fact that even small releases of species may, if ignored, result in irreversible and costly invasion, regardless of initial genetic diversity or continual genetic influx.

The role of the dopaminergic system in the production of ultrasonic calls in adult rats /

Ultrasonic vocalizations (USV) are emitted by rats in a number of social situations such as aggressive encounters, during sexual behavior, and during play in young rats, situations which are predominantly associated with strong emotional responses. These USV typically involve two distinct types of calls: 22 kHz calls, which are emitted in aversive situations and 50 kHz calls, which are emitted in non-aversive, appetitive situation. The 50 kHz calls are the focus of the present study and to date both the glutamatergic and the dopaminergic systems have been independently implicated in the production of these 50 kHz calls. The present study was conducted to examine a possible relationship between glutamate (GLU) and dopamine (DA) in mediating 50 kHz calls. It was hypothesized that the dopaminergic system plays a mediating role in 50 kHz calls induced by injections ofGLU into the anterior hypothalamic/preoptic area (AHPOA) in adult rats. A total of 68 adult male rats were used in this study. Rats' USV were recorded and analyzed in five experiments that were designed to test the hypothesis: in experiment 1, rats were treated with systemic amphetamine (AMPH) alone; in experiment 2, intra- AHPOA GLU was pretreated with systemic AMPH; in experiment 3, intra-AHPOA GLU was pretreated with intra-AHPOA AMPH; in experiment 4, rats were treated with high and low doses of intra-AHPOA AMPH only; in experiment 5, rats were treated with systemic haloperidol (HAL) as a pretreatment for intra-AHPOA GLU. Analysis of the results indicated that AMPH has a facilitatory effect on 50 kHz USV and that a relationship between DA and GLU in inducing 50 kHz calls does exist. The effect, however, was only observed when DA receptors were antagonized with HAL and was not seen with systemic AMPH pretreatments of intra-AHPOA GLU. The DAGLU relationship at the AHPOA was unclear.

More volunteers in football clubs. An evaluation of a method to increase the number of volunteers

An increasing number of clubs experience difficulties in recruiting and retaining sufficient numbers of volunteers to manage and staff their clubs (Lamprecht, Fischer, & Stamm, 2012). In order to facilitate volunteer recruitment, sport clubs need a specific strategy to recruit and retain volunteers for both formal positions and ad hoc tasks. Therefore, the intervention “More Volunteers in Football Clubs” was designed and its impact was evaluated in detail. The question this evaluation research wants to address is: Can football clubs recruit and retain volunteers successfully by implementing the intervention “More Volunteers in Football Clubs”? The designed intervention is based on the different expectations and needs of volunteers, as well as non-profit human resource management and organisational development management, with a strong emphasis on club-specific counseling and support. Task forces of the twelve participating football clubs attended four workshops in which they received tailor made counseling to reach the desired number of volunteers. The intervention has been implemented and its effectiveness tested in cooperation with the Swiss Football Federation with twelve Swiss football clubs following a pretest, intervention, posttest design Data have been gathered and analysed using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. Outcome measurements are: volunteer rate, number of recruited volunteers, number of filled volunteer positions and volunteer satisfaction. Four months after the intervention all clubs that completed the proposed intervention were successful in recruiting the desired number of volunteers. Further, all participating clubs found the intervention helpful and would recommend other clubs to participate as well. With the development of this practical intervention a solution for football clubs is provided to overcome the difficulties in recruiting and retaining sufficient numbers of volunteers. Lamprecht, M., Fischer, A., & Stamm, H.-P. (2012). Sportvereine in der Schweiz. Strukturen, Leistungen, Herausforderungen. Zürich, Switzerland: Seismo.

Mobility changes in older age: neuropsychological, neurophysiological and cognitive predictors of successful adaptation in a real world scenario

The aims of this thesis were to investigate the neuropsychological, neurophysiological, and cognitive contributors to mobility changes with increasing age. In a series of studies with adults aged 45-88 years, unsafe pedestrian behaviour and falls were investigated in relation to i) cognitive functions (including response time variability, executive function, and visual attention tests), ii) mobility assessments (including gait and balance and using motion capture cameras), iii) motor initiation and pedestrian road crossing behavior (using a simulated pedestrian road scene), iv) neuronal and functional brain changes (using a computer based crossing task with magnetoencephalography), and v) quality of life questionnaires (including fear of falling and restricted range of travel). Older adults are more likely to be fatally injured at the far-side of the road compared to the near-side of the road, however, the underlying mobility and cognitive processes related to lane-specific (i.e. near-side or far-side) pedestrian crossing errors in older adults is currently unknown. The first study explored cognitive, motor initiation, and mobility predictors of unsafe pedestrian crossing behaviours. The purpose of the first study (Chapter 2) was to determine whether collisions at the near-side and far-side would be differentially predicted by mobility indices (such as walking speed and postural sway), motor initiation, and cognitive function (including spatial planning, visual attention, and within participant variability) with increasing age. The results suggest that near-side unsafe pedestrian crossing errors are related to processing speed, whereas far-side errors are related to spatial planning difficulties. Both near-side and far-side crossing errors were related to walking speed and motor initiation measures (specifically motor initiation variability). The salient mobility predictors of unsafe pedestrian crossings determined in the above study were examined in Chapter 3 in conjunction with the presence of a history of falls. The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which walking speed (indicated as a salient predictor of unsafe crossings and start-up delay in Chapter 2), and previous falls can be predicted and explained by age-related changes in mobility and cognitive function changes (specifically within participant variability and spatial ability). 53.2% of walking speed variance was found to be predicted by self-rated mobility score, sit-to-stand time, motor initiation, and within participant variability. Although a significant model was not found to predict fall history variance, postural sway and attentional set shifting ability was found to be strongly related to the occurrence of falls within the last year. Next in Chapter 4, unsafe pedestrian crossing behaviour and pedestrian predictors (both mobility and cognitive measures) from Chapter 2 were explored in terms of increasing hemispheric laterality of attentional functions and inter-hemispheric oscillatory beta power changes associated with increasing age. Elevated beta (15-35 Hz) power in the motor cortex prior to movement, and reduced beta power post-movement has been linked to age-related changes in mobility. In addition, increasing recruitment of both hemispheres has been shown to occur and be beneficial to perform similarly to younger adults in cognitive tasks (Cabeza, Anderson, Locantore, & McIntosh, 2002). It has been hypothesised that changes in hemispheric neural beta power may explain the presence of more pedestrian errors at the farside of the road in older adults. The purpose of the study was to determine whether changes in age-related cortical oscillatory beta power and hemispheric laterality are linked to unsafe pedestrian behaviour in older adults. Results indicated that pedestrian errors at the near-side are linked to hemispheric bilateralisation, and neural overcompensation post-movement, 4 whereas far-side unsafe errors are linked to not employing neural compensation methods (hemispheric bilateralisation). Finally, in Chapter 5, fear of falling, life space mobility, and quality of life in old age were examined to determine their relationships with cognition, mobility (including fall history and pedestrian behaviour), and motor initiation. In addition to death and injury, mobility decline (such as pedestrian errors in Chapter 2, and falls in Chapter 3) and cognition can negatively affect quality of life and result in activity avoidance. Further, number of falls in Chapter 3 was not significantly linked to mobility and cognition alone, and may be further explained by a fear of falling. The objective of the above study (Study 2, Chapter 3) was to determine the role of mobility and cognition on fear of falling and life space mobility, and the impact on quality of life measures. Results indicated that missing safe pedestrian crossing gaps (potentially indicating crossing anxiety) and mobility decline were consistent predictors of fear of falling, reduced life space mobility, and quality of life variance. Social community (total number of close family and friends) was also linked to life space mobility and quality of life. Lower cognitive functions (particularly processing speed and reaction time) were found to predict variance in fear of falling and quality of life in old age. Overall, the findings indicated that mobility decline (particularly walking speed or walking difficulty), processing speed, and intra-individual variability in attention (including motor initiation variability) are salient predictors of participant safety (mainly pedestrian crossing errors) and wellbeing with increasing age. More research is required to produce a significant model to explain the number of falls.

LINEUP SIZE AND NUMBER OF CUES: WHEN BIGGER ISN’T BETTER

Larger lineups could protect innocent suspects from being misidentified; however, they can also decrease correct identifications. Bertrand (2006) investigated whether the decrease in correct identifications could be prevented by adding more cues, in the form of additional views of lineup members’ faces, to the lineup. Adding these cues was successful to an extent. The current series of studies attempted to replicate Bertrand’s (2006) findings while addressing some methodological issues—namely, the inconsistency in image size as lineup size increased. First, I investigated whether image size could affect face recognition (Chapter 2) and found it could, but that it also affected previously-seen (“old”) versus previously-unseen (“new”) faces differently. Specifically, smaller image sizes at exposure lowered accuracy for old faces, while these same image sizes at recognition lowered accuracy for new faces. Although these results indicate that target recognition would be unaffected by image size at recognition (i.e., during a lineup), lineups are also comprised of previously-unseen faces, in the form of fillers and innocent suspects. Because image size could affect lineup decisions, as it could become more difficult to realize fillers are previously-unseen, I decided to replicate Bertrand (2006) while keeping image size constant in Chapters 3 (simultaneous lineups) and 4 (simultaneous-presentation, sequential decisions). In both Chapters, the integral findings were the same: correct identification rates decreased as lineup size increased from 6- to 24-person lineups, but adding cues had no effect. The inability to replicate Bertrand (2006) could mean that the original finding was due to chance, but alternate explanations also exist, such as the overall size of the array, the degree to which additional cues overlap, and the length of the target exposure. These alternate explanations, along with directions for future research, are discussed in the following Chapters.

Achieving growth in NAPLAN: characteristics of successful schools

Since 2008, Australian students in Years 3, 5, 7 and 9 have been assessed through the National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN). In 2015, the Office of the Chief Scientist commissioned a study into the processes used by schools that demonstrated successful outcomes in NAPLAN numeracy. A team of researchers across Australia conducted a total of 55 case studies in order to identify practices and policies that were consistent between successful schools. Data were gathered through surveys, classroom observations and interviews conducted with school leaders, teachers, students, and parents. Overall findings indicated there were a number of characteristics that were common to schools who achieved sustained growth in NAPLAN results. These characteristics included the development and implementation of policies that specifically supported numeracy learning and teaching, use of a variety of data sources to develop and refine mathematics teaching programs, team planning, strong numeracy leadership and a consistent school approach to teaching mathematics. This paper presents the findings from three case study schools as illustrative examples of how the identified characteristics were enacted in practice. The study has particular implications for policy makers and school leaders who may be seeking ways to develop consistent and effective mathematical practices in their own schools.

Smoothing a Discrete Hazard Function for the Number of Patients Colonized with Methicillin-Resistance Staphylococcus Aureus in an Intensive Care Unit

A new method for estimating the time to colonization of Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) patients is developed in this paper. The time to colonization of MRSA is modelled using a Bayesian smoothing approach for the hazard function. There are two prior models discussed in this paper: the first difference prior and the second difference prior. The second difference prior model gives smoother estimates of the hazard functions and, when applied to data from an intensive care unit (ICU), clearly shows increasing hazard up to day 13, then a decreasing hazard. The results clearly demonstrate that the hazard is not constant and provide a useful quantification of the effect of length of stay on the risk of MRSA colonization which provides useful insight.

Measuring episodic memory: A novel approach with an indefinite number of alternative forms

Both clinical practice and clinical research settings can require successive administrations of a memory test, particularly when following the trajectory of suspected memory decline in older adults. However, relatively few verbal episodic memory tests have alternative forms. We set out to create a broad based memory test to allow for the use of an essentially unlimited number of alternative forms. Four tasks for inclusion in such a test were developed. These tasks varied the requirement for recall as opposed to recognition, the need to form an association between unrelated words, and the need to discriminate the most recent list from earlier lists, all of which proved useful. A total of 115 participants completed the battery of tests and were used to show that the test could differentiate between older and younger adults; a sub-sample of 73 participants completed alternative forms of the tests to determine test-retest reliability and the amount of learning to learn.