Density-Profile Processes Describing Biological Signaling Networks: Almost Sure Convergence to Deterministic Trajectories

We introduce jump processes in R(k), called density-profile processes, to model biological signaling networks. Our modeling setup describes the macroscopic evolution of a finite-size spin-flip model with k types of spins with arbitrary number of internal states interacting through a non-reversible stochastic dynamics. We are mostly interested on the multi-dimensional empirical-magnetization vector in the thermodynamic limit, and prove that, within arbitrary finite time-intervals, its path converges almost surely to a deterministic trajectory determined by a first-order (non-linear) differential equation with explicit bounds on the distance between the stochastic and deterministic trajectories. As parameters of the spin-flip dynamics change, the associated dynamical system may go through bifurcations, associated to phase transitions in the statistical mechanical setting. We present a simple example of spin-flip stochastic model, associated to a synthetic biology model known as repressilator, which leads to a dynamical system with Hopf and pitchfork bifurcations. Depending on the parameter values, the magnetization random path can either converge to a unique stable fixed point, converge to one of a pair of stable fixed points, or asymptotically evolve close to a deterministic orbit in Rk. We also discuss a simple signaling pathway related to cancer research, called p53 module.

Comments on ‘‘Modeling fractional stochastic systems as non-random fractional dynamics driven Brownian motions

Applied Mathematical Modelling, Vol.33

Stochastic dynamics on infinite and finite transport capacity networks: an operatorial approach

Nella tesi viene studiata la dinamica stocastica di particelle non interagenti su network con capacita di trasporto finita. L'argomento viene affrontato introducendo un formalismo operatoriale per il sistema. Dopo averne verificato la consistenza su modelli risolvibili analiticamente, tale formalismo viene impiegato per dimostrare l'emergere di una forza entropica agente sulle particelle, dovuta alle limitazioni dinamiche del network. Inoltre viene proposta una spiegazione qualitativa dell'effetto di attrazione reciproca tra nodi vuoti nel caso di processi sincroni.

Modelling nonlinear stochastic dynamics in financial time series

For analysing financial time series two main opposing viewpoints exist, either capital markets are completely stochastic and therefore prices follow a random walk, or they are deterministic and consequently predictable. For each of these views a great variety of tools exist with which it can be tried to confirm the hypotheses. Unfortunately, these methods are not well suited for dealing with data characterised in part by both paradigms. This thesis investigates these two approaches in order to model the behaviour of financial time series. In the deterministic framework methods are used to characterise the dimensionality of embedded financial data. The stochastic approach includes here an estimation of the unconditioned and conditional return distributions using parametric, non- and semi-parametric density estimation techniques. Finally, it will be shown how elements from these two approaches could be combined to achieve a more realistic model for financial time series.

Gaussian estimates for the density of the non-linear stochastic heat equation in any space dimension

In this paper, we establish lower and upper Gaussian bounds for the probability density of the mild solution to the stochastic heat equation with multiplicative noise and in any space dimension. The driving perturbation is a Gaussian noise which is white in time with some spatially homogeneous covariance. These estimates are obtained using tools of the Malliavin calculus. The most challenging part is the lower bound, which is obtained by adapting a general method developed by Kohatsu-Higa to the underlying spatially homogeneous Gaussian setting. Both lower and upper estimates have the same form: a Gaussian density with a variance which is equal to that of the mild solution of the corresponding linear equation with additive noise.

Solving non-linear stochastic models by parameterizing expectations: An application to asset pricing with production

A new algorithm called the parameterized expectations approach(PEA) for solving dynamic stochastic models under rational expectationsis developed and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Thisalgorithm can, in principle, approximate the true equilibrium arbitrarilywell. Also, this algorithm works from the Euler equations, so that theequilibrium does not have to be cast in the form of a planner's problem.Monte--Carlo integration and the absence of grids on the state variables,cause the computation costs not to go up exponentially when the numberof state variables or the exogenous shocks in the economy increase. \\As an application we analyze an asset pricing model with endogenousproduction. We analyze its implications for time dependence of volatilityof stock returns and the term structure of interest rates. We argue thatthis model can generate hump--shaped term structures.

Parameter estimation for Chaotic or Stochastic Dynamics

Since its discovery, chaos has been a very interesting and challenging topic of research. Many great minds spent their entire lives trying to give some rules to it. Nowadays, thanks to the research of last century and the advent of computers, it is possible to predict chaotic phenomena of nature for a certain limited amount of time. The aim of this study is to present a recently discovered method for the parameter estimation of the chaotic dynamical system models via the correlation integral likelihood, and give some hints for a more optimized use of it, together with a possible application to the industry. The main part of our study concerned two chaotic attractors whose general behaviour is diff erent, in order to capture eventual di fferences in the results. In the various simulations that we performed, the initial conditions have been changed in a quite exhaustive way. The results obtained show that, under certain conditions, this method works very well in all the case. In particular, it came out that the most important aspect is to be very careful while creating the training set and the empirical likelihood, since a lack of information in this part of the procedure leads to low quality results.

Non-Born-Oppenheimer Dynamics of Hydrogen Molecules in Strong Laser-Fields

Die Arbeit behandelt die numerische Untersuchung von Wasserstoff-Moleküldynamik in starken Laserfeldern. Im Speziellen wird die Struktur von Ionisationsspektren bei Einfach-Photoionisation betrachtet. Korrelationen zwischen Elektron- und Kernbewegung werden identifiziert und mit Effekten in den Energiespektren in Verbindung gebracht. Dabei wird stets auf die Integration der zeitabhängigen Schrödingergleichung zurückgegriffen.

Stochastic dynamics in exotic and native blowflies: an analysis combining laboratory experiments and a two-patch metapopulation model

In this study we explored the stochastic population dynamics of three exotic blowfly species, Chrysomya albiceps, Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, and two native species, Cochliomyia macellaria and Lucilia eximia, by combining a density-dependent growth model with a two-patch metapopulation model. Stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were investigated by permitting random variations between predetermined demographic boundary values based on experimental data. Lucilia eximia and Chrysomya albiceps were the species most susceptible to the risk of local extinction. Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria exhibited lower risks of extinction when compared to the other species. The simultaneous analysis of stochastic fecundity and survival revealed an increase in the extinction risk for all species. When stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were simulated together, the coupled populations were synchronized in the five species. These results are discussed, emphasizing biological invasion and interspecific interaction dynamics.

Stochastic dynamics of Musca domestica (Diptera: Muscidae) and Chrysomya putoria (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Elements of Non-Linear Hamiltonian Dynamics

In this paper we present a set of generic results on Hamiltonian non-linear dynamics. We show the necessary conditions for a Hamiltonian system to present a non-twist scenario and from that we introduce the isochronous resonances. The generality of these resonances is shown from the Hamiltonian given by the Birkhof-Gustavson normal form, which can be considered a toy model, and from an optic system governed by the non-linear map of the annular billiard. We also define a special kind of transport barrier called robust torus. The meanders and shearless curves are also presented and we show the most robust shearless barrier associated with the rotation numbers.

Markovian versus non-Markovian stochastic quantization of a complex-action model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Non-Markovian stochastic processes and their applications: from anomalous diffusion to time series analysis

This work provides a forward step in the study and comprehension of the relationships between stochastic processes and a certain class of integral-partial differential equation, which can be used in order to model anomalous diffusion and transport in statistical physics. In the first part, we brought the reader through the fundamental notions of probability and stochastic processes, stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations as well. In particular, within the study of H-sssi processes, we focused on fractional Brownian motion (fBm) and its discrete-time increment process, the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn), which provide examples of non-Markovian Gaussian processes. The fGn, together with stationary FARIMA processes, is widely used in the modeling and estimation of long-memory, or long-range dependence (LRD). Time series manifesting long-range dependence, are often observed in nature especially in physics, meteorology, climatology, but also in hydrology, geophysics, economy and many others. We deepely studied LRD, giving many real data examples, providing statistical analysis and introducing parametric methods of estimation. Then, we introduced the theory of fractional integrals and derivatives, which indeed turns out to be very appropriate for studying and modeling systems with long-memory properties. After having introduced the basics concepts, we provided many examples and applications. For instance, we investigated the relaxation equation with distributed order time-fractional derivatives, which describes models characterized by a strong memory component and can be used to model relaxation in complex systems, which deviates from the classical exponential Debye pattern. Then, we focused in the study of generalizations of the standard diffusion equation, by passing through the preliminary study of the fractional forward drift equation. Such generalizations have been obtained by using fractional integrals and derivatives of distributed orders. In order to find a connection between the anomalous diffusion described by these equations and the long-range dependence, we introduced and studied the generalized grey Brownian motion (ggBm), which is actually a parametric class of H-sssi processes, which have indeed marginal probability density function evolving in time according to a partial integro-differential equation of fractional type. The ggBm is of course Non-Markovian. All around the work, we have remarked many times that, starting from a master equation of a probability density function f(x,t), it is always possible to define an equivalence class of stochastic processes with the same marginal density function f(x,t). All these processes provide suitable stochastic models for the starting equation. Studying the ggBm, we just focused on a subclass made up of processes with stationary increments. The ggBm has been defined canonically in the so called grey noise space. However, we have been able to provide a characterization notwithstanding the underline probability space. We also pointed out that that the generalized grey Brownian motion is a direct generalization of a Gaussian process and in particular it generalizes Brownain motion and fractional Brownain motion as well. Finally, we introduced and analyzed a more general class of diffusion type equations related to certain non-Markovian stochastic processes. We started from the forward drift equation, which have been made non-local in time by the introduction of a suitable chosen memory kernel K(t). The resulting non-Markovian equation has been interpreted in a natural way as the evolution equation of the marginal density function of a random time process l(t). We then consider the subordinated process Y(t)=X(l(t)) where X(t) is a Markovian diffusion. The corresponding time-evolution of the marginal density function of Y(t) is governed by a non-Markovian Fokker-Planck equation which involves the same memory kernel K(t). We developed several applications and derived the exact solutions. Moreover, we considered different stochastic models for the given equations, providing path simulations.

Non-equilibrium molecular dynamics study of an amphiphilic model system

Diese Doktorarbeit untersucht das Verhalten von komplexenFluidenunter Scherung, insbesondere den Einfluss von Scherflüssenauf dieStrukturbildung.Dazu wird ein Modell dieser entworfen, welches imRahmen von Molekulardynamiksimulationen verwendet wird.Zunächst werden Gleichgewichtseigenschaften dieses Modellsuntersucht.Hierbei wird unter anderem die Lage desOrdnungs--Unordnungsübergangs von derisotropen zur lamellaren Phase der Dimere bestimmt.Der Einfluss von Scherflüssen auf diese lamellare Phase wirdnununtersucht und mit analytischen Theorien verglichen. Die Scherung einer parallelen lamellaren Phase ruft eineNeuausrichtung des Direktors in Flussrichtung hervor.Das verursacht eine Verminderung der Schichtdicke mitsteigender Scherrateund führt oberhalb eines Schwellwertes zu Ondulationen.Ein vergleichbares Verhalten wird auch in lamellarenSystemengefunden, an denen in Richtung des Direktors gezogen wird.Allerdings wird festgestellt, dass die Art der Bifurkationenin beidenFällen unterschiedlich ist.Unter Scherung wird ein Übergang von Lamellen parallelerAusrichtung zu senkrechter gefunden.Dabei wird beoachtet, dass die Scherspannung in senkrechterOrientierungniedriger als in der parallelen ist.Dies führt unter bestimmten Bedingungen zum Auftreten vonScherbändern, was auch in Simulationen beobachtet wird. Es ist gelungen mit einem einfachen Modell viele Apsekte desVerhalten vonkomplexen Fluiden wiederzugeben. Die Strukturbildung hängt offensichtlich nurbedingt von lokalen Eigenschaften der Moleküle ab.